Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Bullish sign for Monday....Happy weekend y'all!!:

View attachment 798933

I think Elon is genuinely smitten.

 

[Artful Dodger]

2 yrs ago today, I wrote this assessment of Tesla and the course of the Auto industry. How'd I do?

Artful Dodger - Apr 29, 2020 - #68

I don't know what tomorrow will bring, but I'm not concerned either. Here's the big picture in the auto industry as I see it:

• The Competition is NOT coming:
  • Both Ford and VW are having major delays with their nascent EV programs
  • EVs aren't as easy as ICE, as Mercedes found out with their EQC "conversion".
  • The awful efficiency of much-hyped offerings like Audi's E-tron and Porsche's Taycan only showcases Tesla's vast lead in technology (World-beaters, and getting better daily)
  • Auto giant Toyota doesn't have a competitive EV (have they finally given up on 'fool cells'?) while some Japanese marques don't even HAVE an EV program (good grief)
  • With Tesla's launch of the MiC Model 3, they have INSTANTLY become the premier domestic EV brand, and are on a path to dominate the Chinese AUTO market, the largest in the World
• Established Automakers are on the Ropes:We've long known on this Forum that a mere 10% drop in sales wipes out the profitability of large marques who already operate on razor-thin margins. With the Covid-19 crisis driving down their sales:
  • many face bankrupcy and may seek Gov't support
  • most (or all) are cancelling dividends, a sacred cow for investors
  • many face credit downgrades making the cost of capital burdensome
• Tesla is in great shape to weather a downturn:
  • There is a untapped pool of customers ripe for Tesla's numerous demand levers
  • The Model Y SUV is becoming available in N.America just in time to capture market share in a larger market and with a product with higher gross margins than Model 3
  • Tesla has a strong balance sheet, and is likely STILL cash-flow positive even in a downturn
  • New factories and new products strengthen demand each quarter while they gain access to new markets and new segments of those markets
• Tesla is NOT your father's 8-yr old sedan:
  • Semi is both a product and a technology stack that is poised to sweep away the competition in the trucking / logistics industry: Even in a recession, goods must flow and ACCOUNTANTS call the shots
  • Solar Roof is a game changer. Starting in California and working outward, anybody with means and a desire for the security that comes with independace from the Grid will sign up
  • Tesla Energy is poised to END the use of all NG Peaker plants with its new line of MegaPack utility class energy storage products
• Tesla has a strong and relentless Leadership Team:
  • Tesla attracts the best in Engineering talent, because of THE MISSION
  • Tesla has a no-quit, double-quick-time rock-star of a CEO that refuses to lose
  • Let me say that again: Tesla is so results focused that even its cars have VISION.

So come what may on Thursday, I'm looking toward 2025 and beyond and the view is splendid. BTW, Ron Baron isn't selling...

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Yep: Your final line re ARK is on point:

End of discussion.

 

[navguy12]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

Anecdotal evidence: spoke with a chap (I’ve known for 45 years) for the first time in about six months. He was a Tesla/Musk hater (hard core climate denier) until “this Twitter thing, now I love the guy…and Tesla too”.

 

[Zero CO2]

It is dangerous projecting motivations based on actions.

Musk has said why he is pursuing Twitter. While it is convenient to suggest there is some sound business decision that involves Tesla going on here, I don't think that is a safe assumption. As an advertising platform for Tesla, purchasing Twitter is a massive waste of money. A giant waste of capital.

All of Musk's businesses are philanthropy in a way. All of them. I suspect Musk sees the Twitter acquisition in the same light. It is Philanthropy. He is buying Twitter to protect the town square and free speech.

I'm sure it will also have lots of synergies with Tesla and SpaceX. It will also almost certainly end up hugely profitable. But fundamentally I'm sure Musk is being forthright about the Twitter acquisition being about free speech and the town square concept.

advertising and free speech philanthropy motive are not mutually exclusive in the this case as with other musk companies he does the right thing and it also makes money $$$ Tesla has a lot of advertising twitter, TMC , MSM financial news, You tube, etc they just don't pay for it .. i agree it may not be his primary motivation ...
but the battle for sustainable future needs a clear communication channel and twitter can provide that channel ... if EM fixes it... I would speculate the war in Ukraine has made this very clear to EM as evidence by the benefits of Starlink internet in Ukraine

Lets not fool ourselves Tesla mission is a war weather us investors like it or not .... Putin has just reminded us how important their mission is recommend reading "winter is coming " by garry kasparov

 

[jhm]

I still think you should buy an island...

Why buy an island when you can buy a superyacht?

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA After-Hours Quotes​

Data last updated Apr 29, 2022 08:00 PM ET.
This page will resume updating on May 02, 2022 04:00 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$878 +7.24 (+0.83%)
After-Hours Volume	1,059,011
After-Hours High	$878.5 (06:54:42 PM)
After-Hours Low	$868 (04:00:13 PM)

 

[wipster]

Why buy an island when you can buy a superyacht?

You have to have a place to dock it!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Deleted way O/T post

I ended that discussion after

 

[Zero CO2]

2 yrs ago today, I wrote this assessment of Tesla and the course of the Auto industry. How'd I do?

Artful Dodger - Apr 29, 2020 - #68

I don't know what tomorrow will bring, but I'm not concerned either. Here's the big picture in the auto industry as I see it:

• The Competition is NOT coming:
  • Both Ford and VW are having major delays with their nascent EV programs
  • EVs aren't as easy as ICE, as Mercedes found out with their EQC "conversion".
  • The awful efficiency of much-hyped offerings like Audi's E-tron and Porsche's Taycan only showcases Tesla's vast lead in technology (World-beaters, and getting better daily)
  • Auto giant Toyota doesn't have a competitive EV (have they finally given up on 'fool cells'?) while some Japanese marques don't even HAVE an EV program (good grief)
  • With Tesla's launch of the MiC Model 3, they have INSTANTLY become the premier domestic EV brand, and are on a path to dominate the Chinese AUTO market, the largest in the World
• Established Automakers are on the Ropes:We've long known on this Forum that a mere 10% drop in sales wipes out the profitability of large marques who already operate on razor-thin margins. With the Covid-19 crisis driving down their sales:
  • many face bankrupcy and may seek Gov't support
  • most (or all) are cancelling dividends, a sacred cow for investors
  • many face credit downgrades making the cost of capital burdensome
• Tesla is in great shape to weather a downturn:
  • There is a untapped pool of customers ripe for Tesla's numerous demand levers
  • The Model Y SUV is becoming available in N.America just in time to capture market share in a larger market and with a product with higher gross margins than Model 3
  • Tesla has a strong balance sheet, and is likely STILL cash-flow positive even in a downturn
  • New factories and new products strengthen demand each quarter while they gain access to new markets and new segments of those markets
• Tesla is NOT your father's 8-yr old sedan:
  • Semi is both a product and a technology stack that is poised to sweep away the competition in the trucking / logistics industry: Even in a recession, goods must flow and ACCOUNTANTS call the shots
  • Solar Roof is a game changer. Starting in California and working outward, anybody with means and a desire for the security that comes with independace from the Grid will sign up
  • Tesla Energy is poised to END the use of all NG Peaker plants with its new line of MegaPack utility class energy storage products
• Tesla has a strong and relentless Leadership Team:
  • Tesla attracts the best in Engineering talent, because of THE MISSION
  • Tesla has a no-quit, double-quick-time rock-star of a CEO that refuses to lose
  • Let me say that again: Tesla is so results focused that even its cars have VISION.

So come what may on Thursday, I'm looking toward 2025 and beyond and the view is splendid. BTW, Ron Baron isn't selling...

Cheers!

all the major bullets are spot on ... some sub bullets still need some work ... 95%

 

[MartinAustin]

Thank you to Brad Sloan (turn up your loudspeakers ):

 

[Discoducky]

Most everything I track is showing green in AHs. Interesting data

 

[Fred42]

• Solar Roof is a game changer. Starting in California and working outward, anybody with means and a desire for the security that comes with independace from the Grid will sign up

Rooftop solar is a fad that will soon be over. An increasing number of states and maybe the federal government will mandate electricity pricing changes to make them so uneconomic that only a few rich people will buy them. Rooftop solar harms revenues and profits of electric utilities and the fossil industry, and that will soon be an insurmountable obstacle. IMO.

 

[MC3OZ]

Rooftop solar is a fad that will soon be over. An increasing number of states and maybe the federal government will mandate electricity pricing changes to make them so uneconomic that only a few rich people will buy them. Rooftop solar harms revenues and profits of electric utilities and the fossil industry, and that will soon be an insurmountable obstacle. IMO.

The solar roof is a high end product.

But where I live home generated electricity costs $0.06 perhaps less, grid electricity is $0.25.

Sure it is bad for utilities and the fossil fuel industry, but it is great for the household.

So home owners and consumers need to ensure that elected politicians are acting in their interests, not the interests of others. Maintaining democracy and the rule of law means sometimes you need to speak up, and lobby for what is right.

 

[Tommy O]

Seems like a new GF location may be known to some in the community, with hints that it is not necessarily an expected location. I will say this latter thread could have just been fluff mostly trying to bait Elon into revealing something during a stock swoon, but nonetheless I mention it. I believe it originated from one of the fairly well known Tesla Twitter people but not someone who posts a ton…would have to go digging through my timeline to find.

The rumor is that it’s in the dakotas. That’s just a rumor.

Zach also mention that Q1 had a one time gain of $288m from Reg Credits.
It would be good to get clarity on the Shanghai line workers that were in lockdown at home. Is it fair to assume that Tesla did not pay them for the time that the factory was closed? . . .or are there any labor laws that required Tesla to continue paying workers even when the factory was closed?

Great question. Will ask my sources.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Rooftop solar is a fad that will soon be over. An increasing number of states and maybe the federal government will mandate electricity pricing changes to make them so uneconomic that only a few rich people will buy them. Rooftop solar harms revenues and profits of electric utilities and the fossil industry, and that will soon be an insurmountable obstacle. IMO.

I’ve been waiting for my solar PTO for 7mo now. My electric utility here in NJ appears to be in no hurry to help me reduce my monthly bill, it’s really odd.

 

[EVDRVN]

Rooftop solar is a fad that will soon be over. An increasing number of states and maybe the federal government will mandate electricity pricing changes to make them so uneconomic that only a few rich people will buy them. Rooftop solar harms revenues and profits of electric utilities and the fossil industry, and that will soon be an insurmountable obstacle. IMO.

It's already started in CA big time. Solar tax, potential disconnect fines, etc.

 

[Tommy O]

I’ve been waiting for my solar PTO for 7mo now. My electric utility here in NJ appears to be in no hurry to help me reduce my monthly bill, it’s really odd.

That stinks. Sorry about that.

Not going to go back to find the reply you replied to about rooftop solar being a fad, but I want to put myself on the record here saying that rooftop solar is going to be a huge, huuuuge business in the future. That plus home storage.

It seems underappreciated that future power generation and consumption will look like this:

• Centralized power plants will supply base rates to satisfy current electric demand. Current demand will change over time.
• Home generation will supply much, all, or more than enough power for home consumption on a daily basis.
• Excess energy will be monetized.
• The monetization of a single home overproducing will come in many forms, the simplest of which will be selling it back into the market for a profit. This is where Tesla’s auto bidder comes in.

There’s a LOT more (and this is beyond the rooftop solar production topic), but Ukraine is getting pre packaged solar + battery solutions (from Tesla) to provide mobile power solutions. You can’t airdrop a coal or nat gas peaker or nuclear plant into a disaster zone or war zone.

I’ve been waiting a decade for this to happen. Militaries around the world are about to embrace green tech. For better or worse…

 

[GrandEnigma]

I love my solar and power walls. Have had 22 events in the time my system has been “off” and umm pending utility approval.

Edit: I lied. 24 events and I also haven’t produced a few megawatts.

 

[MadScientist23]

I gotta say running the numbers on solar makes it very much financially beneficial for a net metering arrangement, we even added batteries to ours just to curb demand fees and it's still going to pay for itself and save us at least 86k over the 30 yr life of the panels. That's assuming i replace every component the day that warranty expires. We've already saved ourselves over 10k operating for about 2.5 yrs. This isn't a fad and with every new step in storage advancement micro grids will be more and more prevalent.