Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

The more EVs, the better!

My only concern is, it looks less like a production plant and more like a skunk works. Very leisurely, nothing moving quickly, not a lot of activity, regardless of which area of the plant. I mean, they do have 4 or 5 chargers, so that kinda tells you the output...

The Ford plant is a complete joke. Either nobody thinks about cost and efficiency, or they are very bad at it. Elon says the Factory IS the product, and the Ford product is

 

[jbcarioca]

advertising and free speech philanthropy motive are not mutually exclusive in the this case as with other musk companies he does the right thing and it also makes money $$$ Tesla has a lot of advertising twitter, TMC , MSM financial news, You tube, etc they just don't pay for it .. i agree it may not be his primary motivation ...

THIS WILL BE RPEATED EVERY TIME THE WORD IS USED WRONGLY
ADVERTISING MUST BE PAID. IF NOT PAID IT IS NOT ADVERTSING.
"Promotion" is a part of marketing that encourages products to be purchased.
The easiest way to learn this is with the Five P's of marketing, taught in every respectable Marketing 101 class:

Why do I keep emphasizing these points? Why do I regularly repeat the basics?
Because most people actually don't know the subject. Here at TMC TSLA investors really need to understand these. These principles explain just why Tesla thrives with ZERO advertising.

John Wanamaker, a famous Philadelphia merchant of the early days of department stores said one fo the Marketing text's base phrases "I know I waste half my advertising. The problem is; I don't know which half"

Elon Musk mastered Marketing 101 and more advanced levels with PayPal and then Space X. He understood then that the most prized element of Promotion is found in 'message' and 'media'. There he discovered how to direct promotion through "word-of-mouth" a traditional wording that encompasses customer advocacy and social media influencers plus careful public opinion support.

Most of us are not attuned to haw marketing has changed within the last two decades. The people who are so attuned can generate support for widely divergent views, including extremist politics. The Eon Musk companies do that with such finesse that very few people realize how carefully it is all done. That is precisely why seemingly outrageous or odd statements arrive regularly. That is also why Tesla vehicles have all those toys and video games and rear screens on S and X.

This all is how Elon Musk companies are so incredibly efficient sales processes. Bizarrely that is how they all manage to be so exceedingly successful while ignoring much of what everyone knows is crucial, including less than optimal customer service. That last does not inhibit long wait lists for every major product from all Tesla vehicles to Stalink.

Giving away support to Ukraine command and control and natural disaster recovery is further enhanced by providing electrical grid stability services. Those things go far to avoid expensive and useless advertising budgets.

I dearly hope all this sinks in soon. It's all part of avoiding a dealer network and useless overhead.

I will happily recommend Marketing textbooks for anybody who wants them. I taught Marketing 101 with an older edition of this:
Marketing Management1967

 

[Xd85]

THIS WILL BE RPEATED EVERY TIME THE WORD IS USED WRONGLY
ADVERTISING MUST BE PAID. IF NOT PAID IT IS NOT ADVERTSING.
"Promotion" is a part of marketing that encourages products to be purchased.
The easiest way to learn this is with the Five P's of marketing, taught in every respectable Marketing 101 class:
View attachment 799083
Why do I keep emphasizing these points? Why do I regularly repeat the basics?
Because most people actually don't know the subject. Here at TMC TSLA investors really need to understand these. These principles explain just why Tesla thrives with ZERO advertising.

John Wanamaker, a famous Philadelphia merchant of the early days of department stores said one fo the Marketing text's base phrases "I know I waste half my advertising. The problem is; I don't know which half"

Elon Musk mastered Marketing 101 and more advanced levels with PayPal and then Space X. He understood then that the most prized element of Promotion is found in 'message' and 'media'. There he discovered how to direct promotion through "word-of-mouth" a traditional wording that encompasses customer advocacy and social media influencers plus careful public opinion support.

Most of us are not attuned to haw marketing has changed within the last two decades. The people who are so attuned can generate support for widely divergent views, including extremist politics. The Eon Musk companies do that with such finesse that very few people realize how carefully it is all done. That is precisely why seemingly outrageous or odd statements arrive regularly. That is also why Tesla vehicles have all those toys and video games and rear screens on S and X.

This all is how Elon Musk companies are so incredibly efficient sales processes. Bizarrely that is how they all manage to be so exceedingly successful while ignoring much of what everyone knows is crucial, including less than optimal customer service. That last does not inhibit long wait lists for every major product from all Tesla vehicles to Stalink.

Giving away support to Ukraine command and control and natural disaster recovery is further enhanced by providing electrical grid stability services. Those things go far to avoid expensive and useless advertising budgets.

I dearly hope all this sinks in soon. It's all part of avoiding a dealer network and useless overhead.

I will happily recommend Marketing textbooks for anybody who wants them. I taught Marketing 101 with an older edition of this:
Marketing Management1967

shoo in for posts of merit

 

[Zero CO2]

THIS WILL BE RPEATED EVERY TIME THE WORD IS USED WRONGLY
ADVERTISING MUST BE PAID. IF NOT PAID IT IS NOT ADVERTSING.
"Promotion" is a part of marketing that encourages products to be purchased.
The easiest way to learn this is with the Five P's of marketing, taught in every respectable Marketing 101 class:
View attachment 799083
Why do I keep emphasizing these points? Why do I regularly repeat the basics?
Because most people actually don't know the subject. Here at TMC TSLA investors really need to understand these. These principles explain just why Tesla thrives with ZERO advertising.

John Wanamaker, a famous Philadelphia merchant of the early days of department stores said one fo the Marketing text's base phrases "I know I waste half my advertising. The problem is; I don't know which half"

Elon Musk mastered Marketing 101 and more advanced levels with PayPal and then Space X. He understood then that the most prized element of Promotion is found in 'message' and 'media'. There he discovered how to direct promotion through "word-of-mouth" a traditional wording that encompasses customer advocacy and social media influencers plus careful public opinion support.

Most of us are not attuned to haw marketing has changed within the last two decades. The people who are so attuned can generate support for widely divergent views, including extremist politics. The Eon Musk companies do that with such finesse that very few people realize how carefully it is all done. That is precisely why seemingly outrageous or odd statements arrive regularly. That is also why Tesla vehicles have all those toys and video games and rear screens on S and X.

This all is how Elon Musk companies are so incredibly efficient sales processes. Bizarrely that is how they all manage to be so exceedingly successful while ignoring much of what everyone knows is crucial, including less than optimal customer service. That last does not inhibit long wait lists for every major product from all Tesla vehicles to Stalink.

Giving away support to Ukraine command and control and natural disaster recovery is further enhanced by providing electrical grid stability services. Those things go far to avoid expensive and useless advertising budgets.

I dearly hope all this sinks in soon. It's all part of avoiding a dealer network and useless overhead.

I will happily recommend Marketing textbooks for anybody who wants them. I taught Marketing 101 with an older edition of this:
Marketing Management1967

promotion and free speech philanthropy motive are not mutually exclusive in the this case as with other musk companies he does the right thing and it also makes money $$$ Tesla has a lot of promotion twitter, TMC , MSM financial news, You tube, etc .. i agree it may not be his primary motivation ..

FTFY

great post!

 

[Zero CO2]

Skipping everything else. Advertising is paid promotion. Tesla does not do advertising and has never done advertising. This is not simple semantics. Advertising for other OEMs consumes typically 3-5% of Actual Sales Price. Advertising is done by OEM directly, by distributors and dealers. It is done for corporate promotion, brand promotion, model promotion and individual dealer promotion. Advertising is done on social media, TV, radio, newspapers and magazines.

This very lack of advertising is a large contributor to Tesla profitability. It is crucial for us to understand that.
One type of highly effective Tesla promotion has been the use of Twitter. Twitter does have costs for commercial-style accounts:

Professional Accounts

Learn about Professional Accounts on Twitter

business.twitter.com

So, if those count as advertising because of those 'exorbitant fees /S' then indeed tesla actually does advertise. FWIW, classified block ads normally cost much, much more.

All of that said, until more has been disclosed we have no way to discern whether Twitter will end out being consequential to us as TSLA investors. Certainly Tesla and Elon Musk presence on that platform have generated material effects, not least, in SEC prosecution. We shall see...but it is NOT advertising.

thanks i really never gave the word advertising careful enough thought .. clearly lumped it in with all types of marketing which i did take a course in 35 years ago ....you can see how much i paid attention ... i do understand the profit implications fortunately

 

[Zero CO2]

I hear what you're saying, but some of us aren't in a position to get a bank loan/mortgage any more. Age, employment status and the general state of the mortage market now mean that, at least in the UK, there are people like me who will never be able to get a big loan to buy a house the way we did back in the '80s and '90s. I have the highest credit rating possible and an impecible record when it comes to repaying mortages and loans, but there's nothing available to someone like me who's 100% invested in one stock and self-employed.
And you've probably guessed, I'm not a 'young folk'.

understood I sort of realized i might be talking to general audience and debated deleting my response but figure it might be useful to someone here ... lets hope we have rebound Monday ... good luck with share sale !

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm just not knowledgable enough about options trading to understand if this is a good choice for me or not! Any (non) advice welcome though...

Well, all depends on how much you need... and how many shares you've got...

But with the current SP you'd need to sell around 115x $TSLA to get $100k, you could also get ~$100k by selling 4x June 24 c1200 strikes @$250 per contract (OK, the price isn't quite there, but you get the idea), which would mean you receive $100k now, but essentially pledge 400 shares to be sold for $1200 in June 24... if the SP is below $1200 at that moment then the calls expire and you keep your shares. Risk that the SP shoots way higher, of course, but IMO a fair chance it doesn't too, given the state of the economy and all that

 

[Max Plaid]

Given the risks in option trading, this is in my opinion not something that you should start doing without first getting a thorough understanding of what you will be doing and the risks that are involved. Quite a few before you have learned that the hard way.
No matter how good the (non) advice is that will be given here.

Selling options has little risk, everything is defined up-front, you know the premium you receive, you know what price your shares will be sold at, and with sold options you can always roll, unlike bought options - which are a totally different beast

What is the risk in selling calls? The SP rises way about the strike price and you miss out on potential gains, or in the case of sold puts, the SP drops way above the strike and you're forced to buy shares way above the current price...

Both are essentially limit sell and buy orders that you get paid for

 

[Skryll]

The solar roof is a high end product.

But where I live home generated electricity costs $0.06 perhaps less, grid electricity is $0.25.

Sure it is bad for utilities and the fossil fuel industry, but it is great for the household. .

It can work out for both if the incentives are right and lead to battery storage and solar taking the edge off of peak demand while absorb unused extra capacity. That would reduce operational cost for grid utility providers.

 

[EVDRVN]

THIS WILL BE RPEATED EVERY TIME THE WORD IS USED WRONGLY
ADVERTISING MUST BE PAID. IF NOT PAID IT IS NOT ADVERTSING.
"Promotion" is a part of marketing that encourages products to be purchased.
The easiest way to learn this is with the Five P's of marketing, taught in every respectable Marketing 101 class:
View attachment 799083
Why do I keep emphasizing these points? Why do I regularly repeat the basics?
Because most people actually don't know the subject. Here at TMC TSLA investors really need to understand these. These principles explain just why Tesla thrives with ZERO advertising.

John Wanamaker, a famous Philadelphia merchant of the early days of department stores said one fo the Marketing text's base phrases "I know I waste half my advertising. The problem is; I don't know which half"

Elon Musk mastered Marketing 101 and more advanced levels with PayPal and then Space X. He understood then that the most prized element of Promotion is found in 'message' and 'media'. There he discovered how to direct promotion through "word-of-mouth" a traditional wording that encompasses customer advocacy and social media influencers plus careful public opinion support.

Most of us are not attuned to haw marketing has changed within the last two decades. The people who are so attuned can generate support for widely divergent views, including extremist politics. The Eon Musk companies do that with such finesse that very few people realize how carefully it is all done. That is precisely why seemingly outrageous or odd statements arrive regularly. That is also why Tesla vehicles have all those toys and video games and rear screens on S and X.

This all is how Elon Musk companies are so incredibly efficient sales processes. Bizarrely that is how they all manage to be so exceedingly successful while ignoring much of what everyone knows is crucial, including less than optimal customer service. That last does not inhibit long wait lists for every major product from all Tesla vehicles to Stalink.

Giving away support to Ukraine command and control and natural disaster recovery is further enhanced by providing electrical grid stability services. Those things go far to avoid expensive and useless advertising budgets.

I dearly hope all this sinks in soon. It's all part of avoiding a dealer network and useless overhead.

I will happily recommend Marketing textbooks for anybody who wants them. I taught Marketing 101 with an older edition of this:
Marketing Management1967

One correction, Tesla does not use the last box on the right. Carry on

 

[EVDRVN]

FYI, I think when they say "get the most talented engineers", they mean out of college. And that's probably true.

The more important differentiation with Tesla is the management. I can't tell you how many times a great idea has been shot down by some non-technical business person for whatever reason (didn't understand it, politics, save a buck, etc.). Or worse, a really bad idea is forced to be implemented by non-technical management. This is why Tesla is such a juggernaut. It seems like all of management have a technical background, or at least most of them do.

Anecdotal story: my buddy worked at Jeep 10 years ago. They vastly improved the interior of the Jeep Wranglers from 2010 to 2011 (to the point where my wife said she would never buy one to us actually owning one). Guess what the price difference between the two was: $110. Trivial on a $25-35k vehicle. Yet some bean-counter held this back for years since $110 x 500,000 vehicles = their bonus. These kind of decisions kill a lot of products.

Tesla removed the lumbar support adjustment because "no one used it much". Well I only adjust it once like many do and then leave it. Tesla interprets that to mean we can cut costs because "no one uses it". Oddly there are bean counters at Tesla as well as data counters that don't understand how people use cars. I have not adjusted my mirrors since I bought my car, perhaps they can also remove the electric mirror motors as well. A $60K car with no lumbar on the driver seat, that's a bunch of beans.

 

[SunCatcher]

Well, all depends on how much you need... and how many shares you've got...

But with the current SP you'd need to sell around 115x $TSLA to get $100k, you could also get ~$100k by selling 4x June 24 c1200 strikes @$250 per contract (OK, the price isn't quite there, but you get the idea), which would mean you receive $100k now, but essentially pledge 400 shares to be sold for $1200 in June 24... if the SP is below $1200 at that moment then the calls expire and you keep your shares. Risk that the SP shoots way higher, of course, but IMO a fair chance it doesn't too, given the state of the economy and all that

Just to make it clear; this is June 2024 expiration, not June 24, 2022. I like the looks of the nearly $25,000 premium received on selling this call option, but that's an awfully long time to hold. To imagine that TSLA SP is still under $1,200 a share over 2 years from now... yes, it's possible, but I sure wouldn't take that bet. Too many positives in Tesla's favor to give these odds the advantage.

 

[mongo]

Tesla removed the lumbar support adjustment because "no one used it much". Well I only adjust it once like many do and then leave it. Tesla interprets that to mean we can cut costs because "no one uses it". Oddly there are bean counters at Tesla as well as data counters that don't understand how people use cars. I have not adjusted my mirrors since I bought my car, perhaps they can also remove the electric mirror motors as well. A $60K car with no lumbar on the driver seat, that's a bunch of beans.

They removed lumbar from the passenger's seat, not driver's.
Our SUV (placeholder for Cybertruck) was selected in part due to both seats having all the same power functions, so this is sad.
Maybe, post chip scarcity, it will come back.

 

[Max Plaid]

Just to make it clear; this is June 2024 expiration, not June 24, 2022. I like the looks of the nearly $25,000 premium received on selling this call option, but that's an awfully long time to hold. To imagine that TSLA SP is still under $1,200 a share over 2 years from now... yes, it's possible, but I sure wouldn't take that bet. Too many positives in Tesla's favor to give these odds the advantage.

Sure, but you'd roll it up and out long before then... there might also be a time where the SP takes a huge dump and you also them out totally, many possibilities...

I couple of real-life examples of my own:

- December 18th 2020, a couple of days before the S&P inclusion, in my infinite wisdom, I decided the SP had reached its zenith and sold 17x 3/18 2021 -c780 strikes @$60 = $102k. The SP continued to rise and hit ATH $900 on Jan 25th 2021, my calls were surely toast? Well no, by 5th March it had crashed back down to $540, the calls expired worthless with the SP around $680

- 24th March I sold 70x 6/17 AAPL -c150's @$24.70 = $173k, today they're valued at $13.20, I could close them out now with $80.5k profit, but I think the markets have a way to fall still, plus there's a lot of time-value in that premium, which I'm loathe to pay

The thing is, you don't know where the markets or share price will be in two years time. Logic says $TSLA is trading above $2k (pre next split), but markets aren't logical, they're at best random, at worst manipulated

Anyway, this isn't the place for such discussion, head over to the "Other Thread" for some better advice than I can give: Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

 

[Cal1]

Selling options has little risk, everything is defined up-front, you know the premium you receive, you know what price your shares will be sold at, and with sold options you can always roll, unlike bought options - which are a totally different beast

What is the risk in selling calls? The SP rises way about the strike price and you miss out on potential gains, or in the case of sold puts, the SP drops way above the strike and you're forced to buy shares way above the current price...

Both are essentially limit sell and buy orders that you get paid for

You should explain that selling covered calls have limited risk. Selling naked calls theoretically have unlimited risk. Then you'd have to explain how to cover them and that would be a long post!

 

[Gigapress]

I don't think Solar Roof has been given enough mind-share at Tesla. I'm a little afraid of the competition as GAF's Timberline Solar shingles appear to be a LOT easier to install. However, I haven't done an in-depth comparison. If anyone has a good resource, please share.

Solar roof was intentionally delayed for years because of the decision to put the entire company on solving Production Hell. Now growth is limited by supply chain issues and in the meantime it’s better to focus efforts on optimizing the process instead of scaling volume.

The GAF shingles have a totally different market niche than the Tesla Roof, which is more of a premium product. GAF is targeting a moderate cost and aesthetic improvement on traditional rack-mounted 3x5 foot panels, but Tesla is reinventing the whole roof and hoping costs will fall over time after the product is developed.

GAF solar roofs look slightly better than regular solar panels whereas the Tesla solar roof/glass tiles is substantially better looking.

GAF is putting these only onto wide open rectangular patches of flat roof, but Tesla is going edge-to-edge for any non-curved roof design. This drives up cost for Tesla but also makes the value higher.

GAF solar tiles still require another shingle material for the rest of the roof which is typically asphalt that falls apart over time and then needs to be stripped off and hauled to the local landfill. Tesla’s roofs are at least as durable as any common roofing material on the market.

GAF’s shingles are rated for 130mph wind load. Tesla does 166mph.

Tesla has OTA updates for inverters.

Installation of GAF’s shingles actually appears no easier than installation of Tesla’s shingles for the easy parts that are directly comparable. Both require just a nail gun and manual wiring connections. Tesla has some more work on aligning the mounting feet but GAF has more work on the wiring channels between each tiles. Also, I suspect Tesla’s shingles are easier to remove and reuse elsewhere if the house is torn down, because the nails go through the mounting feet instead of the shingle itself.

Tesla’s mounting feet design for the shingles also helps keep them cooler in the summer, improving efficiency. GAF tiles are flush with the roof and have to rely on more expensive high-efficiency monocrystralline PV cells and they can’t take advantage of as much of the sunshine hitting the roof too.

Tesla roofing has additional cost advantages in sales/customer acquisition, because people order directly from Tesla.com and are connected with contractors while GAF roofs often rely on contractor advertising. Also, Tesla has convenient combo deals with Powerwall (and HVAC someday) where it can all be installed simultaneously, and app integration for the whole ecosystem.

Looking to the future, I also believe Boxabl’s solution for factory built housing is going to dominate over time, and it seems to my intuition that Tesla’s roof design is more suitable for automated robotic installation. By the way, there is fairly credible evidence that Elon has a Boxabl unit secretly hidden in his backyard at his Boca Chica property. I also had called the Boxabl investor relations focal to ask several questions, one of which was whether SpaceX was considering using these for worker housing or Mars housing and he confirmed that SpaceX may be looking at Boxabl for worker housing but Mars is too far ahead to think about for now. I would not be surprised to see a partnership in the next 10 years.

I hope GAF and Tesla both install a lot of solar.

 

[UncaNed]

Well, all depends on how much you need... and how many shares you've got...

But with the current SP you'd need to sell around 115x $TSLA to get $100k, you could also get ~$100k by selling 4x June 24 c1200 strikes @$250 per contract (OK, the price isn't quite there, but you get the idea), which would mean you receive $100k now, but essentially pledge 400 shares to be sold for $1200 in June 24... if the SP is below $1200 at that moment then the calls expire and you keep your shares. Risk that the SP shoots way higher, of course, but IMO a fair chance it doesn't too, given the state of the economy and all that

@Max Plaid , what happens if TSLA hits $1,300 this fall for long enough for someone to excercise?

 

[Knightshade]

@Max Plaid , what happens if TSLA hits $1,300 this fall for long enough for someone to excercise?

Then you've found a sucker.

With nearly 2 years of time value left on the option exercising that early would be the call holder setting fire to money. He'd be better off in virtually every case reselling the call to someone else than doing that since he'd gain BOTH the increase in value -and- also get money for the remaining time premium.

Early exercise is rare in general, and exceedingly rare when there's significant time value left.


Keep in mind, if that DID happen, it means you would be paid $1200 for your shares, plus keep the $250 per share premium.

Meaning that guy effectively paid you $1450 per share to exercise early when the stock was $1300.

That'd be awesome for you and incredibly foolish for him.

 

[EVDRVN]

They removed lumbar from the passenger's seat, not driver's.
Our SUV (placeholder for Cybertruck) was selected in part due to both seats having all the same power functions, so this is sad.
Maybe, post chip scarcity, it will come back.

They removed lumbar from the passenger's seat, not driver's.
Our SUV (placeholder for Cybertruck) was selected in part due to both seats having all the same power functions, so this is sad.
Maybe, post chip scarcity, it will come back.

In that case who cares This is the excuse Tesla used however. I would like the garage door opener back so it does not need to be installed.

 

[thesmokingman]

They removed lumbar from the passenger's seat, not driver's.
Our SUV (placeholder for Cybertruck) was selected in part due to both seats having all the same power functions, so this is sad.
Maybe, post chip scarcity, it will come back.

You can add it back in since the seat's still wired for lumbar. There's a thread on it.