Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tommy O]

Tesla/Elon answered this exact question on the earnings call. They would have already been aware of any limitations in their supply chain and Elon still said what he said.

I think you’re right, but I don’t have your confidence. Tesla isn’t prescient. No individual or company is. Shanghai is about to allow another 1k+ manufacturing businesses to restart in the same closed loop system that Tesla Shanghai is currently under.

Which makes me wonder, were any of these businesses critical to production at Tesla Shanghai? Maybe not directly so, maybe not at all.

 

[Tommy O]

According to Franco, this is subject to change. The ship has listed Ningbo China as it's first destination which is unusual.
I think we will know more by mid-week.

Bolded on my part. NingBo is a large port city. Tesla, China, and and Tesla-China are navigating (heh heh) their way through this chaos.

 

[AudubonB]

I note an NPR article on charging station build-out, wherein it states there are over 46,000 EV charging stalls in the US, and Tesla has built “over” 900 stations.

A very nice way to muddy the waters to show how diminutive Tesla is in the big picture: only 900 out of 46,000. Except, as everyone here knows, stalls ≠ stations. Further, while for a given definition of truth, “over 900” is true, today’s current number is 49% larger than that, at 1,338. I haven’t the precise number of SpC stalls in the US, but it’s around 11,800* - thus a good quarter of all in the country, and a huge fraction of the high-powered ones.

….Conclusion: We’ve come a long way, but there is a long path yet ahead of us.

Link, if for whatever reason it is of interest: How the U.S. wants to make charging electric cars (almost) as painless as pumping gas

* Will update and edit this when someone points to the known current stall count.

 

[Tim S]

Selling options has little risk, everything is defined up-front, you know the premium you receive, you know what price your shares will be sold at, and with sold options you can always roll, unlike bought options - which are a totally different beast

What is the risk in selling calls? The SP rises way about the strike price and you miss out on potential gains...

IMO, this is a big risk if you are selling TSLA calls expiring in 2024.

 

[MrMoo]

IMO, this is a big risk if you are selling TSLA calls expiring in 2024.

Only if you are greedy. No one ever went bankrupt capping the amount of money they make.

For example, If you sold a TSLA 2000 2024 and by 2023 it already hit that, you would need to have a greedy mindset if you start thinking OMG i'm losing so much money right now help me. I can't possibly fathom how I am going to go on.

 

[gsmith123]

It's now been over three weeks since the first made at Giga-Austin Model Y's were delivered to employees.

Any speculation on how long until a non-employee can get one (perhaps based on estimated production run rate and how many employees they have to sell to)?

I'm excited to get some testing on these cars, particularly range, efficiency, charging curve, and weight. Will be super interesting to get a gauge on whether 4680s are about the same product wise or substantially better.

 

[thesmokingman]

I note an NPR article on charging station build-out, wherein it states there are over 46,000 EV charging stalls in the US, and Tesla has built “over” 900 stations.

A very nice way to muddy the waters to show how diminutive Tesla is in the big picture: only 900 out of 46,000. Except, as everyone here knows, stalls ≠ stations. Further, while for a given definition of truth, “over 900” is true, today’s current number is 49% larger than that, at 1,338. I haven’t the precise number of SpC stalls in the US, but it’s around 11,800* - thus a good quarter of all in the country, and a huge fraction of the high-powered ones.

….Conclusion: We’ve come a long way, but there is a long path yet ahead of us.

Link, if for whatever reason it is of interest: How the U.S. wants to make charging electric cars (almost) as painless as pumping gas

* Will update and edit this when someone points to the known current stall count.

You know what's weird, I clicked thru to the linked Dept of Energy AFDC, and it shows that there are over 54K locations, with the majority being J1772 at 45K. Tesla is at 6676 and Chademo at 5346. Thus how NPR got 900 for Tesla is well a mystery. Now what they mean or define as a location is vague. On the DOE site, each dot is just a dot, no telling how many stalls are in it, I checked. Each location for Tesla could have up to to 56 stalls. This looks rather slanted to me.

 

[BLSmith2112]

Selling options has little risk, everything is defined up-front, you know the premium you receive, you know what price your shares will be sold at, and with sold options you can always roll, unlike bought options - which are a totally different beast

I wish I could just shadow someone to learn a way to low risk my way into this. I’ve got 1500 shares and have been terrified to do anything. With only a 50k income and being up like 1300-1700% over 5 years I fear I’ll always be too paralyzed to take risk as this is my one way ticket to an early retirement and knowing myself I’d ruin it.

 

[SageBrush]

Except, as everyone here knows, stalls ≠ stations.

When I read 'station' I think of Paddington and King's Cross.

Where Superchargers are concerned, I think of locations.

 

[15Peter20]

I wish I could just shadow someone to learn a way to low risk my way into this. I’ve got 1500 shares and have been terrified to do anything. With only a 50k income and being up like 1300-1700% over 5 years I fear I’ll always be too paralyzed to take risk as this is my one way ticket to an early retirement and knowing myself I’d ruin it.

A few of the trading platforms include simulators that allow you to practise for free. IG had one last time I looked.

 

[dl003]

I wish I could just shadow someone to learn a way to low risk my way into this. I’ve got 1500 shares and have been terrified to do anything. With only a 50k income and being up like 1300-1700% over 5 years I fear I’ll always be too paralyzed to take risk as this is my one way ticket to an early retirement and knowing myself I’d ruin it.

feel free to follow the “other thread.” I will start posting daily commentaries next week as this macro rout is getting out of hand.

 

[SageBrush]

I fear I’ll always be too paralyzed to take risk

You are already in a high risk game.

I love this line: "pigs get fat, while hogs get slaughtered."

 

[15Peter20]

I note an NPR article on charging station build-out, wherein it states there are over 46,000 EV charging stalls in the US, and Tesla has built “over” 900 stations.

A very nice way to muddy the waters to show how diminutive Tesla is in the big picture: only 900 out of 46,000. Except, as everyone here knows, stalls ≠ stations. Further, while for a given definition of truth, “over 900” is true, today’s current number is 49% larger than that, at 1,338. I haven’t the precise number of SpC stalls in the US, but it’s around 11,800* - thus a good quarter of all in the country, and a huge fraction of the high-powered ones.

….Conclusion: We’ve come a long way, but there is a long path yet ahead of us.

Link, if for whatever reason it is of interest: How the U.S. wants to make charging electric cars (almost) as painless as pumping gas

* Will update and edit this when someone points to the known current stall count.

It’d be interesting to see similar comparisons in terms of installed kW. Where I am 50kW is ‘rapid’ and counts as a single stall as does a V3 Supercharger. It is much easier to find a 50kW ‘rapid’ than a non-Tesla charger with greater than 50kW capacity.

 

[SageBrush]

It’d be interesting to see similar comparisons in terms of installed kW. Where I am 50kW is ‘rapid’ and counts as a single stall as does a V3 Supercharger. It is much easier to find a 50kW ‘rapid’ than a non-Tesla charger with greater than 50kW capacity.

Yep. In addition, Superchargers for the most part have vastly superior locations and spacing for long distance travel. Then there is the matter of reliability, not to mention convenience and EV integration for winter pre-conditioning.

The AFDC database barely starts to provide a basis for comparison of the charging networks

 

[Maarten]

We got some unique high-angle air photos via drone from Giga Shanghai on April 26. Any indication how the “soil surcharging” is progressing? (480p 'overview' below, click thumbnail at the bottom of this comment for a 1280p 'detail' image)

As much as I would like to give useful information on how far the prestressing of the soil is, I really cannot.
No one but the civil engineers can who are in charge of the process and have the soil characteristics and the periodic measurements of the settlement.
We here will just have to wait until we see the sand being removed...

 

[JSML]

I wish I could just shadow someone to learn a way to low risk my way into this. I’ve got 1500 shares and have been terrified to do anything. With only a 50k income and being up like 1300-1700% over 5 years I fear I’ll always be too paralyzed to take risk as this is my one way ticket to an early retirement and knowing myself I’d ruin it.

The risk with cover calls, besides lost opportunities, is the taxes. If called, you’ll need to pay taxes on all your gains from day one. So it wouldn’t make sense to get called if your intention is to keep investing in Tesla over a long period. You will have less money to buy back which will result in less shares. It would make more sense if you’re ready to take the money and run.

Paying taxes on gains will be detrimental to compounding your investment.

If the price action is fairly sideways, managing and rolling options is feasible but if we see a doubling in a short time, it’s almost impossible. In 2020, the stock 10 X.

I am an aggressive seller and roller of options and so far I would be better off overall not doing it. I got caught both in 2020 and the recent run up from 750 to 1200. I’ve managed to hold on to all shares but suffered unnecessary losses. I’m still doing it though.

 

[redan]

Elon giving stock advice. Hard to find justification to invest in several companies when one is head and shoulders above the rest.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520650036865949696

 

[ThisStockGood]

Elon giving stock advice. Hard to find justification to invest in several companies when one is head and shoulders above the rest.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520650036865949696

“Several companies”.

Remember: Tesla is literally 10-12 tech startups

 

[Todd Burch]

Only sell if you think their products and services are trending worse, or if you are buying a social media platform.

There. Fixed it.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Did she decide to get back in on this dip, or still holding out for $800?

I'm way behind on this thread, but must chime in with advice/not advice on your diversification plans: don't do it.

Seriously, I think TSLA is, by far, my least risky investment ever and have let it grow to some 95%+ of our total net worth (which is now quite substantial).

I learned a LOT from this video, and only wish I had learned it far, far earlier; recommend you do the same ASAP (and watch SMR and Rob Mauer YT content DAILY):