Have not heard of that. IMHO strategy behind that was mainly that off-freeway sites are accessible from travelling both directions on the freeway unlike the premium official rest stops where they´d have to build two stations, one for each direction. Cost of the land might be another.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Most "truck people" just use them as commuter vehicles. But why wouldn't anyone like doors that do this?
One weekend article that I DO find more even-handed and certainly of interest is from CNN Business, “Why car shopping is so bizarre in the United States”. I definitely recommend it for all to read.
Many of us know something of the history of the conflict in this nation’s early automotive years between manufacturers and dealers, but the details provided by this article trace how the conflict developed, and reading between the lines, suggest to me that from the get-go, dealers smelled like something other than roses. How am I not surprised?
I cannot provide a link, but for me right now it is accessible on the iPhone “stock market” app’s news feed.
Many of us know something of the history of the conflict in this nation’s early automotive years between manufacturers and dealers, but the details provided by this article trace how the conflict developed, and reading between the lines, suggest to me that from the get-go, dealers smelled like something other than roses. How am I not surprised?
I cannot provide a link, but for me right now it is accessible on the iPhone “stock market” app’s news feed.
I'm seeing a ton of estimates out now for Tesla's Q2 around the 270-280k mark. Probably most are taking that certain Twitter poster's numbers as gospel. Also seeing a ton of misinformation about the number of lost production. I've even see one article stating Giga Shanghai lost a whole month of production and then went on to say that one months production is the equivalent of 90k units.
To lay out some plain facts, when you add up the 3 months of production numbers for Giga Shanghai from Q1, the average monthly production number was around 60k, not 90k or even 70k. Then given that Giga Shanghai restarted production on April 19th, that was only 18 days of down production........not even close to a whole month (30 days).
When it comes time to compare Q1 to Q2, I see practically no one accounting for the fact that Giga Shanghai had a total of about 15 days of lost production in Q1 (6 days for Chinese New Year, 1 day in late Jan, 1 fewer days in Q1 vs Q2, 2 days in mid March, and then the last 4 days of March). So the total days of lost production isn't that different than Q1. We're talking about 3 days difference. Now let's add on an additional 7 days since Giga Shanghai is running at 60% it's usual capacity for the first 2 weeks of resuming activities. So 10 lost days of production when compared to Q1.
But there's a couple other things to consider on the flip side that will add to Q2's numbers. The extra day in Q2 vs Q1 gives Fremont more production. S/X production seemed to reach a new level in the last month of Q1, Elon said Giga Shanghai will reach a new weekly output record (which lines up with the expected production increase that was supposed to happen in April), and Berlin/Austin will likely contribute anywhere from 15,000-20,000 between them.
To sum it up, I see Q2's deliveries coming in 300-315k based on no further shutdowns out of Giga Shanghai. The estimates out there of 270-280k make zero sense to me.
Q2 Production and Deliveries from Shanghai are very hard to project at this stage - I would only project deliveries out of Shanghai with a very wide range at present.
I agree with you regarding the overblown concerns regarding production rate.
However delivery number will be driven by:
- How many ships/vehicles can be sent to Europe with cars that are actually delivered by quarter end? Most of the window for sending cars to Europe in time for quarter end delivery has been lost. Tesla can either send ships to Europe for the next 2-3 weeks and then switch all production to Chinese deliveries to maximize quarterly deliveries, or it may choose to continue sending ships to Europe for a bit longer with vehicles that wont be delivered until early Q3 (unwinding the wave). Berlin is now producing Model Y (in limited numbers), but Europe still at least needs model 3 from Shanghai, and likely some model Y variants for another couple of quarters until Berlin hits volume ramp.
- How is delivery infrastructure impacted by the covid lockdowns in China? Tesla deliveries in China for the quarter should be mostly unaffected by April shutdown (since April production is mostly geared to European/ROW deliveries), but that assumes Tesla can still deliver vehicles domestically as normal - this isn’t the case yet, but hopefully will be by quarter end - although could be worse, too early to tell.
Obviously for the best quarterly performance, Tesla would stop sending cars to Europe/ROW the moment they know those cars can’t be delivered before quarter end, and from that day onwards devotee all production to China deliveries. However that means long 3 month delays to many European customers who were expecting cars this quarter (not great, but a bearable situation) and also Tesla European market share will be well down in Q2 (bad headlines, but for completely understandable circumstances and little/no impact on company).
Might be a good time for Tesla European delivery staff to plan some nice extended summer holidays.
I rented a Y while I was out of the country for a week, and I really missed that my door didn't open and close for me. I kept stepping on the brake and the door wouldn't close. How 2015 of it. And since an update broke app guesting and all I had was the key card I had to remember to unlock and lock the Y. I am concerned that the CT is supposed to not have any sort of external handle on the doors though.
Tesla China recently posted that deliveries have already commenced again. This was about 2 days ago.
I have an old 2014 Model S, which had a fairly recent door-handle replacement, when it got the Model X style hardware which does the auto-open when you approach the car with fob in pocket. So I have lived with the old manual system for years and recently experiencing this wonder automation, and I can tell you I HATE it with a passion!
It annoys me every day when it opens the door when I just walk by the car in the garage with NO intention to get into the car.
A few times it opened the door in a parking lot when I stepped back closer to the car after walking away resulting in the door remaining open (not just unlocked) while I went into a store and only noticed the open door when I returned. It turned me into paranoid, I have to double and triple check that the door is closed when I leave the car behind in public place and it forces me to avoid walking close to my car in the garage if I do not want to drive it -- or make sure to take my fob out of my pocket if I need to do something in the garage. It is far more of a bother than a convenience!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I'd also expect the ASP and thus profit margin on Chinese delivered cars is different from EU delivered ones? If so that might let them "catch up" on total production for the quarter while revenue drops a bit due to the lower ASP (though maybe US price bumps and higher S/X mix can offset to some degree)
I'd expect bad headlines regardless, because no matter which path Tesla takes some number will be down for Q2--- even if the totals will all wash out in the end, it'll be whatever number(s) that is that get cherry picked for the Q headlines.
One other ship-to-Europe question is the HW Shanghai was sending to Berlin for production there (battery packs at least, and I think still drive units too?)-- is there any constraint on shipping there that will slow that down as well? Or did Berlin have enough of a buffer, and is there enough extra shipping capacity (since they don't need full car carriers for this) that they can "catch up" without impacting Berlin ramp at all?
Sure, but started, and back to normal rate, aren't the same thing.
(equally true for factory production at the moment)
Yeah that's happened to me. But I love the auto doors more than they annoy. As to the fob, you can get a Faraday Key Fob Bag to block the signal connection. You can also turn auto doors off in Settings, at least on the X. Also there is a setting now to notify if a door or window is left open.
@ZsoZso, was this through Tesla? If so, how much was it? Obviously I'm rather excited about the retrofit!
I think likley the biggest factor in this is the fact that Tesla only offes 1 year wararnty on used cars now. Previous they offered four. I think it switched in 2021, but not sure. That is an immense cost savings, however I think 1 year on a used car kinda sucks.
It was done by Tesla mobile/ranger service under extended warranty, because my original door handle was broken, could not open it. Not sure why they replaced it with the upgraded system, perhaps they had part shortage for the original version.
So far only 1 ship tracked t be leaving from China(hasn't happened yet ?)
Given the Europe shipping delay, they could also just decide to delivery a larger percentage to China itself. cheers!!
BLSmith2112
Member
The joy's of not reading the forum for a few days haha. Here we go!
Thanks for reaffirming the majority of advice I've received thus far. I will take this advice, and not risk/gamble with my 1500 shares until I get closer to my exit position around $3000/share on my 1500 stocks.
Thanks all. Here's to a new week in $TSLA.
Great to know!
Will keep up with it on background, thanks dl003.
Perhaps this is a situation where complacency breeds comfort, but I consider Tesla as a safe investment at this point. Even if we go into recession and the P/E gets compressed, eventually we'll come out of it.
My preferred exit point is around $3000/share. I think based on your reply, I'll simply continue to hold and forget about covered calls until $3000/share is closer to reality, so if I ended up getting called on the shares, I wouldn't care so much.
Great idea. I like this.
See @JSML reply above. I think I will try this once we get closer to my exit strategy, in the event I'd be called it wouldn't be the end of the world. In the meantime I can do less risky covered calls in some other, cheaper stock.
To be honest my main purpose for the covered calls was to simply pay off my $8000 remaining bill on a garage I built, and the remaining $27,000 on my Model 3. Even if it took a year or two years using covered calls on my 1500 shares I'd consider that a massive win. But based on my replies to others I suspect it's probably wise to wait until I get closer to my end-game goal of $3000/share, so if I end up having to sell, no big deal.
Thanks @jerry33, I feel less alone now haha. Not many people to talk to in my same position, and this rabbit hole of options discovery has had me terrified and feeling alone.
Thanks for reaffirming the majority of advice I've received thus far. I will take this advice, and not risk/gamble with my 1500 shares until I get closer to my exit position around $3000/share on my 1500 stocks.
Yeah I've been pretty disciplined. Not selling my 1500 shares for 5 years, and the purpose of the options game was to pay off small annoying bills such as the last of a $8000 garage loan and the rest of my Model 3. Didn't really want to go nuts taking massive gambles. But even my limited strategy is a gamble in it's own right so likely will simply hold off until I get closer to my exit position of $3000/share before taking any new risk.
Thanks all. Here's to a new week in $TSLA.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
So much great advice. You have all the options in front of you(no pun intended), but I think it's clear the simplest one might be best. Hold.
You own a wonderful number of shares that will be worth millions in relatively short order. Every trade made is literally designed by the casino to get their hands on your shares cheaply. Don't let em do it.
One way to easily meet both your immediate and retirement needs is to sell one or a few long dated high strike covered calls.
The furthest out expiration is June 2024, but they only go up to a strike of $2275. Jan 2024 however goes up to $2475 which pays you ~$5.5k per contract in premium. You could sell 2 of those with the intention of rolling them up and out to Jun 2024 when a strike above $2500 is available sometime next year.
That way you have a one-time transaction and you can eventuallyhave any contracts rolled to $3000 strikes where you intended to sell anyway.
One thing I would do if you wanna take such a strategy is to wait. Selling these contracts with the SP at $1200 rather than $870 might get you many times more premium. Sit tight and revisit the idea when SP hits a fresh ATH this summer/fall.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Tesla has a lot of market they can expand into here
Very well analysis, but to get true economic relief from lockdown ,major cities in China need to open fully.I'm seeing a ton of estimates out now for Tesla's Q2 around the 270-280k mark. Probably most are taking that certain Twitter poster's numbers as gospel. Also seeing a ton of misinformation about the number of lost production. I've even see one article stating Giga Shanghai lost a whole month of production and then went on to say that one months production is the equivalent of 90k units.
To lay out some plain facts, when you add up the 3 months of production numbers for Giga Shanghai from Q1, the average monthly production number was around 60k, not 90k or even 70k. Then given that Giga Shanghai restarted production on April 19th, that was only 18 days of down production........not even close to a whole month (30 days).
When it comes time to compare Q1 to Q2, I see practically no one accounting for the fact that Giga Shanghai had a total of about 15 days of lost production in Q1 (6 days for Chinese New Year, 1 day in late Jan, 1 fewer days in Q1 vs Q2, 2 days in mid March, and then the last 4 days of March). So the total days of lost production isn't that different than Q1. We're talking about 3 days difference. Now let's add on an additional 7 days since Giga Shanghai is running at 60% it's usual capacity for the first 2 weeks of resuming activities. So 10 lost days of production when compared to Q1.
But there's a couple other things to consider on the flip side that will add to Q2's numbers. The extra day in Q2 vs Q1 gives Fremont more production. S/X production seemed to reach a new level in the last month of Q1, Elon said Giga Shanghai will reach a new weekly output record (which lines up with the expected production increase that was supposed to happen in April), and Berlin/Austin will likely contribute anywhere from 15,000-20,000 between them.
To sum it up, I see Q2's deliveries coming in 300-315k based on no further shutdowns out of Giga Shanghai. The estimates out there of 270-280k make zero sense to me.
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