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Again, we don't give a flying F. Go take it elsewhere.

Rules are rules, you are not special.
Elon is a huge factor in Tesla and its share price. If he publicly wades into political commentary, then discussion of its effect on Tesla car sales and the share price becomes a reasonable exception for this thread, IMHO.
 
WTF happened to Elon? Seriously. He sounds like he's move pretty far right.

Things were bad under Trump, if someone can't see that, I've lost respect for them. The GOP has lost their damn mind concerning how they want to govern this nation.

I'm really having a hard time liking Elon anymore and wanting to say positive things to others....

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We are falling down a slipery slope where it appears to be OK to post+discuss every EM tweet to this forum even if it has nothing to do with TSLA or Tesla
 
Elon is simply wrong here. Hasan was only saying that there is a neo-nazi faction of the GOP which might get larger.

I don't know what kind of game Elon is playing here. It's weird. But Elon has always been weird.
He is lashing out because of what he feels has been bullying/betrayal from the left. (dime store psychology warning) He has issues from childhood in those areas and when he feels that way, he feels cornered and fights back. (I can sympathize.) Unfortunately, the opportunists on the left are using this for their agenda and making it worse. It will probably shift back eventually when the parties swap positions in the fall.
Elon is a huge factor in Tesla and its share price. If he publicly wades into political commentary, then discussion of its effect on Tesla car sales and the share price becomes a reasonable exception for this thread, IMHO.
I get annoyed when people's personal politics are added in. Lots of gray area.
 
Elon is a huge factor in Tesla and its share price. If he publicly wades into political commentary, then discussion of its effect on Tesla car sales and the share price becomes a reasonable exception for this thread, IMHO.
This discussion consists only of a coupling between Schrodinger's box with Pandora's box, which produces an unholy artifact bringing an ending in tears.
Advice.
 
Just briefly returning to fundamentals. I note the following items in the Tesla 2021 10K:
2021 2020 2019
Automotive sales: 44,125 24,604 19,358 $ billion
Warranty provision 1,056 625 555
costs incurred (525) (312) (250)
% of sales provision 2.39 2.54 2.71

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What these charts all show confirms the data in the Tesla 10K, no surprise in that.
The revealing truth is that Tesla has paid a very high price for actuarial skepticism, so over-reserves at an 'unusual' level. We all should know why this is the case.

The fact is that no OEM even approaches the Tesla effectiveness and efficiency. What is more is that Tesla continues to improve as it has incredible growth rates and new factories, new products and new technologies.

Warranty costs are declining as manufacturing simplicity advances, so manufacturing becomes less expensive while this happens. Of course part of this comes from inexpensive recalls, OTA is quite cheap.

This has become an annual process for me, normally beginning with my own examinations then going to Warranty Week extracts. HODL becomes ever more obvious, doesn't it?

One bit of warranty information from my days with the electronics division of Ford. 90% of the warranty defect parts returned are "Trouble not found". The dealers just randomly swap modules without regard to cost as they are not paying for it. The manufactures really struggle with this cost. Not only are they loosing money but they likely have an unhappy customer. I used to be responsible for the analysis of defects on a few different electronic modules and it was always the same....90%+ with no issues. I also experienced this as a Ford customer with 3 trips to the dealer trying to get the light on my dash to go out. Just people without the proper training swapping stuff until the problem went away.

My experience with Tesla was completely different. I had an intermittent battery error on my 2018 LR model 3. Still drivable but kept popping up. The service center spent 3-4 days with the diagnoses. They told me they were actually waiting for an engineer in corporate to do more analysis. Intermittent errors are the hardest to diagnose. They came back with the need for a drive motor replacement. I was a little skeptical at first as the error stated "battery". I thought in a week or so the error would reoccur. I was wrong, they got it right the first time.

Another advantage of direct sales that most people don't realize. It's hard for the dealerships to get out of the swapping mode as they would likely start loosing money on warranty repairs. Tesla has incentive to make sure the diagnoses is done right.
 
One bit of warranty information from my days with the electronics division of Ford. 90% of the warranty defect parts returned are "Trouble not found". The dealers just randomly swap modules without regard to cost as they are not paying for it. The manufactures really struggle with this cost. Not only are they loosing money but they likely have an unhappy customer. I used to be responsible for the analysis of defects on a few different electronic modules and it was always the same....90%+ with no issues. I also experienced this as a Ford customer with 3 trips to the dealer trying to get the light on my dash to go out. Just people without the proper training swapping stuff until the problem went away.

My experience with Tesla was completely different. I had an intermittent battery error on my 2018 LR model 3. Still drivable but kept popping up. The service center spent 3-4 days with the diagnoses. They told me they were actually waiting for an engineer in corporate to do more analysis. Intermittent errors are the hardest to diagnose. They came back with the need for a drive motor replacement. I was a little skeptical at first as the error stated "battery". I thought in a week or so the error would reoccur. I was wrong, they got it right the first time.

Another advantage of direct sales that most people don't realize. It's hard for the dealerships to get out of the swapping mode as they would likely start loosing money on warranty repairs. Tesla has incentive to make sure the diagnoses is done right.
Working the the aerospace industry as an engineer I have lots of exposure to this. We get pressured to use the "Shotgun Method" by management because down aircraft time costs significant money in the short term. What they don't take into account is the long term exposure when problems aren't property troubleshot and thus you get repeat issues because you haven't found a root cause. This leads to lots of expense that gets built into the components that isn't necessary and no solutions. When done correctly troubleshooting leads to root cause, which leads to design changes that remove costs in the long run. Pay me now or pay me more later. This likely comes from the fact that Tesla is run by engineering. It also leads to long term value growth and a better product for the customer.
 
All true, however we also need to factor in the low fleet age for Tesla. 50% CAGR means the average age of vehicles under warranty will be lower. On the other hand, Bathtub curve may also be an effect that counteracts that.
Not really. The data are adjusted to allow for that, but, illogical at it may seem on the surface, warranty claims are generally dominated by the first two years in service. The most expensive claims and most frequent ones happen with statistically most intense use, which is the first two years. FWIW, leased vehicles and commercial sales normally are not included either because their claims do not pass through normal warranty reserves.

An aging fleet does generate higher parts sales but that is dwarfed by collision parts. Collision parts also tend to void warranties at quite high rates. That reduced older vehivle claims because older vehicles in collisions are more frequently ‘totaled’ or repaired with aftermarket parts, which usually void warranties.
 
One bit of warranty information from my days with the electronics division of Ford. 90% of the warranty defect parts returned are "Trouble not found". The dealers just randomly swap modules without regard to cost as they are not paying for it. The manufactures really struggle with this cost. Not only are they loosing money but they likely have an unhappy customer. I used to be responsible for the analysis of defects on a few different electronic modules and it was always the same....90%+ with no issues. I also experienced this as a Ford customer with 3 trips to the dealer trying to get the light on my dash to go out. Just people without the proper training swapping stuff until the problem went away.

My experience with Tesla was completely different. I had an intermittent battery error on my 2018 LR model 3. Still drivable but kept popping up. The service center spent 3-4 days with the diagnoses. They told me they were actually waiting for an engineer in corporate to do more analysis. Intermittent errors are the hardest to diagnose. They came back with the need for a drive motor replacement. I was a little skeptical at first as the error stated "battery". I thought in a week or so the error would reoccur. I was wrong, they got it right the first time.

Another advantage of direct sales that most people don't realize. It's hard for the dealerships to get out of the swapping mode as they would likely start loosing money on warranty repairs. Tesla has incentive to make sure the diagnoses is done right.
This is an excellent point. I had not considered this separate from the OTA diagnostics. Thanks!
 
We are falling down a slipery slope where it appears to be OK to post+discuss every EM tweet to this forum even if it has nothing to do with TSLA or Tesla
It may be time for Elon to let @tesla makes the most important announcements about the company. Otherwise, good luck telling people not to confuse the two.
It'd be easy enough for @elonmusk to retweet @tesla the second they post some news? I believe he knows how Twitter works – or I hope so 😬
 
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Since I got into Tesla and the EV revolution around 2015 I have been watching my home area (a city in northern England) to see signs of the progress in this part of the world.

In the last two days I have seen 7 model 3s which is a record for me, (maybe something to do with the bank holiday)
Yesterday at my local shopping centre whilst looking to park I noticed a new reserved section for EVs which had a model Y and 3 other EVs on charge.

Also chargers have been installed in the car parks of supermarkets.
So slowly slowly in the words of Ron Paul, it’s happening.
 
These are direct grants to GM and Ford, earmarked to help build out battery capacity. Goes directly to the bottom line. How does that do anything but encourage their foot-dragging and sabotaging behavior of the last 20 years?

Maaaybe?

I read the article you linked twice and again now. Did not see anywhere which suggests this money is going towards GM, Ford, UAW, and Tesla was disqualified.

I thought the last round of this nonsense made it clear that super-targeted measures wouldn’t make it though the Senate regardless.
 
Tesla stopped using BTC for transaction and now only holds the asset AFAIK. I'm definitely not takin a hard stance here. There is definitely a coal plant in my area (Finger Lakes Region NY) that is being run more than it should due to BTC mining. I would not be upset at all if Tesla sold their holdings.

Also - how tf do I like a post in here? Am I not yet allowed due to low number of posts by my account? I see no like button! Sorry for unrelated question.
Just to clarify... there are no coal plants left operating in New York State. You are probably referring to this natural gas power plant that was formerly a coal plant... A Bitcoin mining operation in the Finger Lakes runs up against New York's climate law

I believe you need a certain number of posts (5?) before you see the like and other buttons.
 
Not really. The data are adjusted to allow for that, but, illogical at it may seem on the surface, warranty claims are generally dominated by the first two years in service. The most expensive claims and most frequent ones happen with statistically most intense use, which is the first two years. FWIW, leased vehicles and commercial sales normally are not included either because their claims do not pass through normal warranty reserves.

An aging fleet does generate higher parts sales but that is dwarfed by collision parts. Collision parts also tend to void warranties at quite high rates. That reduced older vehivle claims because older vehicles in collisions are more frequently ‘totaled’ or repaired with aftermarket parts, which usually void warranties.
Not an expert but I would also think an aging fleet ages out of its warranties as well, so actually broken parts actually means revenue, not costs.
 
Why? So others don't have to think about it? I don't want to think about it, but he's the one who decided to take this journey. This should be front and center discussion as he heads the company we invest in and buy products from.

Serious stuff went down on Jan.6th and he seems to be (because he continues to bash the left on his new company platform) on that side.....not good.
This belongs in the other thread. Ask the mods for a rule change if you disagree. We have many special topic threads outside this main one.

Elon also just said he strongly supported Obama which is an opinion with approximately 0% popularity amongst Republicans and certainly amongst the extreme faction that decided to invade Capitol Hill last year. He’s irreligious, a self-proclaimed “socialist” who wants a universal basic income (i.e. taxpayer-funded handouts), and a supporter of LGBTQI equality. He denounced the American pullout of the Paris Climate Accord and supports a carbon tax. Notably, he has never said anything positive in public about Trump. Not long ago conservative media outlets like Breitbart were portraying Elon as essentially a communist subsidy chaser running fraudulent businesses staying afloat only by the grace of Washington. Maybe in a few years it will all flip again if Zach, a married homosexual man, is appointed the new CEO. Who knows.

Plenty of people dislike or even despise the politics of Jeff Bezos, Charles Koch, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg yet still purchase their products.

Meanwhile, I literally never thought I’d see the day that Fox Business would hold a 5 min interview with the Governor of Texas—a State that produces more oil and gas than all nations except Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq—to hype up a factory for crazy electric pickup trucks and big grid batteries and to tout the (accurate) fact that Texas leads the USA in renewable energy production.

I don’t know how this will all turn out but I’m pretty confident that Tesla will be massively successful irrespective of any of this and the primary long-term effect of this will be to draw more attention to Tesla. Or maybe Elon Musk will save Western Civilization too. Who knows.
 
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Q1 Shanghai Production was 177k . . .could Q4 production be 270k?
Ciu Dongshu is the Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Dongshu states that monthly production for Tesla will begin to rise after the capacity upgrade in June reaching 90k per month.
Tesla was already at 70k; if Giga-Shanghai can reach 90k/month by October, we can see 270k for Q4. That's a huge number.

 
Elon is a huge factor in Tesla and its share price. If he publicly wades into political commentary, then discussion of its effect on Tesla car sales and the share price becomes a reasonable exception for this thread, IMHO.
Elon has beliefs and disbeliefs in both party's agenda and I think people really have a problem with this concept or something.