Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

I don't know if this has been posted previously, but this Limiting Factor video is very good.

A deep drive into a lot of comments made on the earnings call about the 4680 ramp.

It has, but don't see the harm in re-posting such a great video. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

 

[alloverx]

It is very unlikely any car maker will be reducing prices in the medium term.
With inflation running high recently, costs will be going up. Not to mention the supply of batteries will be tight for the foreseeable future.

In theory if there were major new battery technologies that go online then that could make a difference but even with inflation + supply why would you ever lower prices. i.e. if the battery pack costs came down by 50% would any company lower there price if they are selling everything they make already?

 

[FS_FRA]

Yes, well had Germany listened to our former President and found alternate sources of energy, Russia wouldn't be receiving about $1B/y day (edit) in oil and gas revenues. Better late than never, however. It sounds like Germany and the EU are looking to stop importing Russian energy within 6 months. Meanwhile NATO is doing all it can to deplete Russia's ability to continue making war without provoking a nuclear reaction. Very tricky tightrope NATO is walking. Unfortunately Ukraine is paying the highest price, but I honestly don't know what else NATO could be doing. I am also impressed that most of the rest of the world came together and not only imposed sanctions, but are also pulling out of Russia. Without the foreign oil services companies working in Russia, it won't take too long before their production capacity starts to crumble.

This has got to be one of the most idiotic posts re: Germany / renewables / fossil fuels I've ever read on this forum. Congratulations.

I....just...cannot... my time is too valuable to me to pick your post apart sentence for sentence, but rest assured that you have no idea what you are talking about on this topic. Who do you think championed a switch to renewables GLOBALLY in the early 2000s?


Or did you forget to add the /S for sarcasm tag...?

 

[bhzmark]

It is very unlikely any car maker will be reducing prices in the medium term.
With inflation running high recently, costs will be going up.

Right. Perhaps as more supply comes online tesla can stop raising prices, but hard to see them lowering prices like they did a few years ago.

 

[CorneliusXX]

One reason: too much demand and not enough output to meet it.

Tesla is well aware that if they reduce prices, they'll sell more cars and thus generate more overall profit. But they can't make more cars right now, lead times are a year long in some cases, so higher pricing is the right strategy.

As Austin, Berlin and yet another Shanghai expansion all ramp up, Tesla will eventually get in front of the demand, maybe in a year. At which point, I expect them to reduce pricing to goose demand again.

Tesla is in an awesome place right now. They have the exact right strategy in place, and it is clear they have lots of demand levers to pull for when their factories hit production capacity.

I always wonder in situations like this, where we here at TMC know what the next three years are going to look like (awesome), why the market doesn't? The answer that always comes back is that we really do know Tesla better than most of the market...

And to add to this, only the 3/Y are likely to reach market demand levels in the foreseeable future. Tesla should be able to command wide margins on CT and Semi for many years to come.

 

[lascavarian]

why would you ever lower prices.

There is point where customer satisfaction comes into play. Your customers at some point realize they are being played and it impacts future buying.

This can be evident where the customer is “captured” such as a service customer out of warranty.

Parts demand tends to rise as the installed base ages. A supplier could successfully raise prices as they are a single source but should they? If replacement prices get too gouge-like, customers will alter future buying decisions.

As a service manager responsible for parts pricing, I would adjust (lower) markup and eat some margin rather than piss off existing customers. Pricing that begins to appear suspect can impact customer satisfaction and a great company cares a LOT about how the customer perception might impact future purchases.

 

[CaliBear1]

This has got to be one of the most idiotic posts re: Germany / renewables / fossil fuels I've ever read on this forum. Congratulations.

I....just...cannot... my time is too valuable to me to pick your post apart sentence for sentence, but rest assured that you have no idea what you are talking about on this topic. Who do you think championed a switch to renewables GLOBALLY in the early 2000s?


Or did you forget to add the /S for sarcasm tag...?

Funny, Germany is still utterly dependent on Russian fuel. So while it has “championed” the transition to renewables, it still sucks from Putin’s oil teat. But don’t let facts get in the way of your attack on another forum member.

 

[hobbes]

Breaking: Tesla planning to buy another 100 hectar for freight train stations/logistics extending Giga Berlin area by about 30% - info comes from within administration so quite trustworthy:

Tesla will in Grünheide massiv Land dazukaufen

Tesla besitzt mit 300 Hektar schon eins der größten Gewerbegrundstücke in Brandenburg. Jetzt will das Unternehmen ca. 100 Hektar dazukaufen. Dort sollen ein Güterbahnhof und Lagerflächen entstehen. Schon im kommenden Jahr könnten die Bagger rollen. Von Philip Barnstorf

www-rbb24-de.translate.goog

100 Hektar extra: Tesla will laut Bericht deutlich mehr Platz für deutsche Gigafactory schaffen

Tesla will offenbar Land direkt neben seiner deutschen Gigafactory kaufen - was für weitere Pläne auf dem bisherigen Grundstück spricht.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

Interesting because they have only built a fraction of the production area so far and lots of land left. There was speculation whether the further expansion might be in question because of water supply. IMHO buying extra land for logistics makes it likely they will eventually go to full expansion of the production.

Sketched the additional area from the description in the article:

 

[hobbes]

This has got to be one of the most idiotic posts re: Germany / renewables / fossil fuels I've ever read on this forum. Congratulations.

I....just...cannot... my time is too valuable to me to pick your post apart sentence for sentence, but rest assured that you have no idea what you are talking about on this topic. Who do you think championed a switch to renewables GLOBALLY in the early 2000s?


Or did you forget to add the /S for sarcasm tag...?

Just throwing this into the discussion: US has double the per capita oil consumption as Germany:

Germany vs United States: Energy > Oil > Consumption Facts and Stats

Million tonnes per million, Million tonnes, Share of total, Per capita, Thousand barrels daily and 3 More Interesting Facts and Stats

www.nationmaster.com

Agree though it is not good getting it from Russia. But US has its own oil, we don´t, which make the comparison harder.

 

[Favguy]

It's a good thing that mainstream media are completely unbiased in their reporting:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522076684413173760

If, and only if, the Honda wheel has a progressive action, whereby full lock is no more than 90 degrees or so at lower speeds, it's not necessarily biased. I've personally argued the Tesla yoke isn't a great idea when several turns are needed lock to lock. Its going to be awful to use in our tight roundabout strewn UK. If made progressive, thats a different matter.

 

[SO16]

Elon reduced his TSLA exposure.

“The move comes as Musk’s margin loan was reduced to $6.25 billion from $12.5 billion announced earlier, the filing revealed.”

Elon Musk secures over $7 billion in funding from investors including Larry Ellison

Elon Musk has secured $7.14 billion in funding from a group of investors that includes Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison to fund his takeover of Twitter.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon reduced his TSLA exposure loan exposure.

“The move comes as Musk’s margin loan was reduced to $6.25 billion from $12.5 billion announced earlier, the filing revealed.”

Elon Musk secures over $7 billion in funding from investors including Larry Ellison

Elon Musk has secured $7.14 billion in funding from a group of investors that includes Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison to fund his takeover of Twitter.

www.cnbc.com

A little more from Gary Black.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522178667513884672

 

[Singuy]

Article is dated 4/19, it’s two weeks old. The report of Shanghai being back up to 80% production seems more likely/accurate

4/19 was the first day Shanghai was allowed to open. The article was published yesterday

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澎湃，澎湃新闻，澎湃新闻网，新闻与思想，澎湃是植根于中国上海的时政思想类互联网平台，以最活跃的原创新闻与最冷静的思想分析为两翼，是互联网技术创新与新闻价值传承的结合体，致力于问答式新闻与新闻追踪功能的实践。

m.thepaper.cn

 

[nativewolf]

Funny, Germany is still utterly dependent on Russian fuel. So while it has “championed” the transition to renewables, it still sucks from Putin’s oil teat. But don’t let facts get in the way of your attack on another forum member.

It was a ridiculous comment because the OP was trumpeting the prior president who was 1) looking out for USA gas interests trying to get germany to build more port facilities for LNG and 2) continuing Obama strategy and Bush and Clinton and Reagan strategy. We've long counseled Europe not to become reliant on Russian oil. Reagan actually used oil to destroy the USSR, something the west would be well advised to review. To give any credit at all to the prior US president for anything related to EVs or European security or the fight against climate change is absurd.

As @hobbes and @FS_FRA both point out Germany did quite a lot to kickstart solar at scale but then they threw in the towel and there was little progress for years. To be honest it is really Denmark that proved out renewable -it was wind. The real issue today is that Germany under Schrader and Merkel doubled down on reliance on Russia, in hindsight it is a disastrous decision. The lack of German progress in offshore wind development and in solar and the lack of diversity in supply has clearly emboldened Putin and the oligarchy kleptocracy. Schrader continues to receive a million bucks a year in payments from Putin. Grotesque but then our own former leader got far far more. Also both Germany and France have long blocked the buildout of the massive transmission capacity increase from Spain and Portugal which should have been a no brainer for Europe. Iberian solar should flood into Europe, offshore wind too.

All of this highlights the desperate need for scale in EVs. We need to see 10 MILLON to reduce or replace a million barrels of oil/day. So, while we all cheerlead Tesla stock and Tesla as a thought and manufacturing leader, we need every EV made. VW, Fiat, Nissan, Kia, Ford, GM, etc etc. We need every single EV. Which really highlights the lag in battery production and capacity. Next year it seems that we could start really replacing oil if we could only get the 4680 production to scale. For Tesla shareholders the sky is the limit. For Germany there is a long hard look in a mirror. Who enabled Putin? Germany is enabler #2 behind Xi.

 

[Knightshade]

It's a good thing that mainstream media are completely unbiased in their reporting:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522076684413173760

The Lexus one is steer by wire with progressive steering-- so it is legitimately different- and at least for low-speed turning it's functionally better than the Tesla Yoke which remains entirely linear and mechanical.... (you can argue the Tesla solution remaining mechanical provides better road feel- as with most car things there's trade offs both ways, but what they are not is the same thing)


Elon said at the time of the yoke controversy it'd still be years before Tesla got to progressive steering-- because a lot of folks had thought it WOULD be that on the S and it wasn't... (some speculation that the CT might now be first)


Not that there isn't crazy media bias- but this ain't that.

 

[Raisin45567]

Rivian R1T vs Tesla Cybertruck: Which electric truck is the one for you?

Which of these two electric trucks is the better option?

www.tomsguide.com

After digging deeper into Rivian, this guide comparing the Cybertruck and Rivian is interesting...especially when one considers the ramp up for production for both (2023 vs now, respectively).

With Rivian ahead in production of their truck compared to Tesla's Cybertruck and looking at the designs of both, it seems like Tesla is really committed to the singular strategy of:

1. Boring Company (redesign of transportation infrastructure)
2. FSD (driving automation)
3. the machine-that-builds-the-machine (manufacturing automation)
4. personalization of the interior experience (robotics, maybe, and apps, etc.)
5. logistics (starlink, semi, cybertruck-as-a-delivery-vehicle, robotics, etc.)
6. ...and really subsidizing (right now) on design and (likely) its automation in customization of products (think robots, vehicles, drones, etc. in the future).

Looking into this, maybe Tesla is playing big sibling to Rivian, as a little sibling, and not cannabalizing the production/sales of another very strong EV company that's basically a part of the Tesla people network?

Isn’t Tesla still suing Rivian?

 

[Usain]

It's a good thing that mainstream media are completely unbiased in their reporting:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522076684413173760

I agree that the headlines point to bias.

However, the Lexus steering yoke is drive by wire and arguably superior.

 

[ZachF]

Just completely emblematic of the idiocy of funding climate studies instead of funding efforts, like Tesla or terraform industries or actually launching a lithium project or an LFP battery factory. Sigh...

Unfortunately, more often than not one of the biggest obstacles to building up green infrastructure are greens themselves.

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK charger stats if interested. To me it shows charger coverage is expanding, easier to counter anti-EV anti-Tesla FUD, allows further use of Teslas and others without concerns, especially for company car buyers who are big new car purchasers.

Looks like 100+ kw are expanding rapidly and 25+ kw account for 60% of capacity. How many charge points are there in the UK 2022 - Zap-Map

I picked a friend up the other night, we arranged to meet on a main road with housing and other buildings. They had difficulty finding the right Tesla as there were already 2 just a few metres from each other before I arrived. Teslas are pretty common now. Also plenty of other new EVs, Hyundais, VW ID3/4. Probably more that I don't notice as they look unremarkable like ICE cars from a distance (Peugeot 3008, Niro, Corsa etc).

Plenty of news stories about big organisations setting large purchase budgets for EVs - this includes regional parts of National Health Service - huge employer and vehicle buyer/leaser.

Spoiler: Graph-Text

 

[JusRelax]

The Lexus one is steer by wire with progressive steering-- so it is legitimately different- and at least for low-speed turning it's functionally better than the Tesla Yoke which remains entirely linear and mechanical.... (you can argue the Tesla solution remaining mechanical provides better road feel- as with most car things there's trade offs both ways, but what they are not is the same thing)


Elon said at the time of the yoke controversy it'd still be years before Tesla got to progressive steering-- because a lot of folks had thought it WOULD be that on the S and it wasn't... (some speculation that the CT might now be first)


Not that there isn't crazy media bias- but this ain't that.

I agree that the headlines point to bias.

However, the Lexus steering yoke is drive by wire and arguably superior.

Thanks, @Knightshade and @Usain, for the clarification. I 100% agree that steer-by-wire is tech that, if done correctly, is truly worthy of praise.