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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So, what do people think of the opportunity of buying TWTR right now for an expected 6.6% short term capital gain in about 5 months when the deal goes through? It's an almost guaranteed 13% annualized income, versus a probably 50% loss if the deal falls apart.

Thinking it’s a bad play unless small shareholders are allowed to retain ownership through privatization and IPO. I would guess management would find it inconvenient to have to deal with 10,000 $100k small fry owners, even though that would raise $1B. Presumably Ellison and the institutions within the $7B have that opportunity.
 
Yea, that kind stuff makes me want to puke.

And the digs at Elon, like it suggested that he wants to go to Mars cuz he's a quitter was quite the tripe lol. Like really Ford, how low must you stoop and then to layer on top all the patriotic crap. 🤮

The real problem is that it is field tested with target audiences who like it, or at least prefer it in comparison to something worse they were shown.
 
Must keep reminding myself these are "buy" opportunity days. Indeed, if we all believe Tesla is going to 1200 or 1400 or 1800 or 4000 or 8000 THEN all of these <1K (and even greater) are the "discounted sale" days. The $700 or $800 or even $900 buy points are sort of in the noise relative to the big targets, right? (note: I am posting this to convince ME as much as anyone else!)
 
So much of conversation today, but no one brought up Elon's third CEO role? I guess Twitter will take over an inordinate amount of his time at least at the beginning as he gets educated on all things a Social Media company has to do.

I suppose one way to read this is, Tesla is already moving at the max possible speed given constraints around chips, battery materials, and FSD hardware / software. Similar with Starship hopefully.

I wish Elon got a new girlfriend instead of Twitter, but my hedge of this coming to pass by going long twitter via options last week seems to have paid off.
 
The large German utilities backed the French, abetted is the more appropriate term perhaps. Reagan was aggressive in his use of oil pricing to destroy the USSR, he even basically sacrificed Texas oil when we encouraged SA to dump oil so much so that it destroyed both Iran and Russia. it was the continued oil declines that destroyed Gorbachov's ability to fund the government. I'm sure you're well aware but the USSR was always funded by oil. From the get go Baku and later east Urals was the bank for the USSR.
I'm not asking about Germany/Russia. I'm asking about your statement that the Germans and the Ftench have both blocked Spanish energy infrastructure access northwards. I know the French have done this, we are in agreement there. But I've never seen an assertion that the Germans supported the French 'blockade', let alone any evidence. So why do you think this about the Gernans, have you any knowledge of this ?

(I know all the other stuff re Russian economy and oil patch and history, thanks. That is in a way why I am trying to pin down this new 'assertion').
 
So much of conversation today, but no one brought up Elon's third CEO role? I guess Twitter will take over an inordinate amount of his time at least at the beginning as he gets educated on all things a Social Media company has to do.

I suppose one way to read this is, Tesla is already moving at the max possible speed given constraints around chips, battery materials, and FSD hardware / software. Similar with Starship hopefully.

I wish Elon got a new girlfriend instead of Twitter, but my hedge of this coming to pass by going long twitter via options last week seems to have paid off.
Next up...Elon marries AOC.
 
Why do you keep posting crap about BYD hybrids and really cheap Chinese mini death traps as a comparison to Tesla?

Actually no, I know why.
People. People! Let us not squabble.

BYD, Wuling, Kia, Hyundai, even (gasp) VW are allies here. The enemy is ICE. The enemy is an engine that can do nothing over its long life other than burn carbon fuel.

Let's brag on Tesla as (many of us are) investor/owners and Tesla is objectively kicking ICE's a** in this early stage of battle. It appears many Chinese companies are doing so as well and when it is not OT for this group, yes, recognize them for goodness sake. We need megatons of these things. The enemy must be faced on all continents and nations.
Graphs like these are more indicative of allied rivals jockeying for the chivalrous honor and position of being first in line to kick the tar out of the enemy. They also show how rapidly they are raising their armies.
I will admit that plugin hybrids might be those allies who's motives are perhaps kind of suspect, and require a little side-eye watching as battle is joined ;).
 
So, what do people think of the opportunity of buying TWTR right now for an expected 6.6% short term capital gain in about 5 months when the deal goes through? It's an almost guaranteed 13% annualized income, versus a probably 50% loss if the deal falls apart.
If you are wanting to play merger arbitrage, ATVI is like at a 30% discount to merger offer price. Buffett seems sure it will go through which is why he bought 9.5% of ATVI.
 
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Thinking it’s a bad play unless small shareholders are allowed to retain ownership through privatization and IPO. I would guess management would find it inconvenient to have to deal with 10,000 $100k small fry owners, even though that would raise $1B. Presumably Ellison and the institutions within the $7B have that opportunity.
The US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, section 12(g), generally limits a privately held company to fewer than 500 shareholders.

The way around this would be to create entities that own the shares which are in turn owned by multiple entities (like SpaceX).

Think Elon will stick to the less than 500 since this is a company that is already public and the SEC would definitely consider that extreme shenanigans at this point.
 
Audobon - it's simple.

VAG needs to keep the SEAT plant in Martorell going. I used to live there. Because, politics. And those politics are why it is most unlikely that another major auto manufacturer would put a car plant in Catalonia as it would be as high risk as one in the UK and with no corresponding good reason. Once you go beyond Catalonia it is very difficult to do large scale shipments of capital goods in high volume out of Spain in a cost-effective manner.

Brazil has got to be the next up front runner.
 
I'm not asking about Germany/Russia. I'm asking about your statement that the Germans and the Ftench have both blocked Spanish energy infrastructure access northwards. I know the French have done this, we are in agreement there. But I've never seen an assertion that the Germans supported the French 'blockade', let alone any evidence. So why do you think this about the Gernans, have you any knowledge of this ?

(I know all the other stuff re Russian economy and oil patch and history, thanks. That is in a way why I am trying to pin down this new 'assertion').
I don't know enough to help here, but I will point out that until very recently Germany was a massive importer of electricity. Once the transition to renewables gained momentum, they switched to a $2B+ net exporter.

There was no incentive for the Germans to interconnect much, now that's changed quite a bit. And that will accelerate a LOT as they restart the transition they paused in 2016(for whatever reason).
 
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People. People! Let us not squabble.

BYD, Wuling, Kia, Hyundai, even (gasp) VW are allies here. The enemy is ICE. The enemy is an engine that can do nothing over its long life other than burn carbon fuel.

Let's brag on Tesla as (many of us are) investor/owners and Tesla is objectively kicking ICE's a** in this early stage of battle. It appears many Chinese companies are doing so as well and when it is not OT for this group, yes, recognize them for goodness sake. We need megatons of these things. The enemy must be faced on all continents and nations.
Graphs like these are more indicative of allied rivals jockeying for the chivalrous honor and position of being first in line to kick the tar out of the enemy. They also show how rapidly they are raising their armies.
I will admit that plugin hybrids might be those allies who's motives are perhaps kind of suspect, and require a little side-eye watching as battle is joined ;).
Here, here!

As Jesus once said, those who are not against us are for us. I'm not a super fan of PHEVs, but as long as full ICE is still in the new car market, we can congratulate ICE to PHEV conquest sales. PHEVs are only about 1/3 of the EV market, so once BEVs are half of the new car market, we can focus on PHEV to BEV conquests. But till then, any ICE to EV conquest is a victory.

BTW, I'm still projecting that BEV will achieve 50% market share by about 2027. That's some serious ICE kicking!
 
Wow,... they're discussing the NOPEC bill that's probably going to be signed into law. This is going to keep crude pricing high and will increase or keep tensions high with the Saudis. I've got no love for the Saudis but this is gonna hurt those who buy gas but on the flip side it should continue to push us to alternatives. woops as I typed this...

 
Well, the fear that Elon's Twitter adventure will distract him from the core business of running Tesla is here. Sigh. Hopefully the deal will fall thru or his ADHD will jump back to cars in the near future.

(The news is that Elon says he plans to take Twitter CEO role for a few months)

And folks - I'm a fan of Elon's work. I just don't believe having him focused as CEO of Twitter (an area where he's not proven to have great insight - social media) is an unwanted distraction away from his great, proven work at Tesla.
 
I'm not asking about Germany/Russia. I'm asking about your statement that the Germans and the Ftench have both blocked Spanish energy infrastructure access northwards. I know the French have done this, we are in agreement there. But I've never seen an assertion that the Germans supported the French 'blockade', let alone any evidence. So why do you think this about the Gernans, have you any knowledge of this ?

(I know all the other stuff re Russian economy and oil patch and history, thanks. That is in a way why I am trying to pin down this new 'assertion').
No inside knowledge I will leave it at abetted the French but if it really is important to you I could attempt to connect back to my german lawyer colleagues that had utility clients and I could have off record conversation and refresh my memory (must have been a decade ago) so if you need that send me a PM. At some point it was a topic of dinner conversation...but when I left consulting I really left. Contacts are all cold.
 
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