Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Absolutely. I believe that they will be driven by Dojo, which Elon is going to have run Twitter so it becomes super adept at human interactions. Add an smaller, powerful starlink connector and they will never be off line!

I believe this is MasterPlan part three. Genius. What could go wrong?

(Sorry, couldn't help myself).

Given Dojo was developed by Elon under Tesla, I don't think he's free to just hand that technology over to another private company, even one he happens to also own. Yes, he might try to arrange a sweet licensing deal and/or cross polinate the basic design but that's fraught with conflict-of-interest intellectual property concerns between a publicly held Tesla and a future-private Twitter...

This kind of public/private conflict of interest is yet another reason to be against the Twitter adventure. At least with Solar-City once the deal was done, it was all under one public entity, so sharing tech was safe.

Step back even further - what public company would authorize their CEO to go run another new adventure and stay on the payroll?

 

[StealthP3D]

Given that Elon often personally creates Twitter rants, I don't think he and his "free speech absolutism" are the right leader in the space.

Free speech absolutism gives you 4Chan which no sane advertiser or brand wants to be associated with. And if he's not actually about absolute free speech then firstly he's lying, and secondly he's right back in the job of regulating reasonable free speech which is hard, and nuanced, and not well suited to his talents which are about science.

Twitter is a massive distraction, and a bad idea, in that order, from the perspective of Tesla investors.

History is full of people who told Elon what he didn't have enough know-how to do and were as wrong as wrong could be. I suspect you will be in good (bad) company.

Elon doesn't know how to manufacture cars. He doesn't know how to do it in volume. He doesn't know what kind of cars people want. Auto manufacturers understand their customers in a way that Elon cannot. No one has grown production of large complex products at 50% per year for years running. It's impossible.
Elon cannot land rockets. Even NASA can't land rockets and they have over half a century of know-how.
Elon can't reform Twitter because he doesn't understand the nuances of language. Free speech is a complex topic that Elon has no expertise in. Twitter has learned a thing or two as they became one of the most popular social networks to ever be devised. Elon cannot be effective here, he is out of his league.

Any questions?

 

[StealthP3D]

Given Dojo was developed by Elon under Tesla, I don't think he's free to just hand that technology over to another private company, even one he happens to also own. Yes, he might try to arrange a sweet licensing deal and/or cross polinate the basic design but that's fraught with conflict-of-interest concerns between a publicly held Tesla and a future-private Twitter...

This kind of public/private conflict of interest is yet another reason to be against the Twitter adventure

Um, no. You are over-looking that Tesla operates in different markets from Twitter. They don't compete with one another and a license deal for AI technology would be mutually beneficial to both companies in a huge way. It feels like you are trying to take the very strengths and synergies of the incredible base of knowledge and know-how within Musk companies and trying to present it as if it's a liability.

Tesla and SpaceX regularly help each other out, Tesla provides electric motors and controllers for use in rocket thruster gimbals and SpaceX provides metallurgical expertise for Tesla's manufacturing operations. That is just the tip of the iceberg of things these companies bill each other for. It's mutually beneficial.

What you are claiming has no basis in the real world, a world where companies routinely work with one another to leverage their individual strengths. There are no losers in these types of technology transfers.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

History is full of people who told Elon what he didn't have enough know-how to do and were as wrong as wrong could be. I suspect you will be in good (bad) company.

Elon doesn't know how to manufacture cars. He doesn't know how to do it in volume. He doesn't know what kind of cars people want. Auto manufacturers understand their customers in a way that Elon cannot. No one has grown production of large complex products at 50% per year for years running. It's impossible.
Elon cannot land rockets. Even NASA can't land rockets and they have over half a century of know-how.
Elon can't reform Twitter because he doesn't understand the nuances of language. Free speech is a complex topic that Elon has no expertise in. Twitter has learned a thing or two as they became one of the most popular social networks to ever be devised. Elon cannot be effective here, he is out of his league.

Any questions?

You mis-read me. I'm an Elon Fan. I love my Tesla. I deeply admire his work on rockets.

But he's not a god. His Hyperloop idea is nice in theory, until you try to actually put people in it and navigate any real world terrain. His attempt at an online humor site (more relevant to twitter) was called "Thud" and that's what happened to it. Shall we bring up "Pravda"? Or his handling of rescue submarines and his delightful handling of the human interactions on that adventure?

If you look at the pattern of what he's good at, and where his failures cluster, it's the cars and spaceships which he excels at, while his understanding of human interaction (including handling of customer and employee relations at his otherwise wildly successful car company) is his weak spot, into which he is directly headed with Twitter. He does not even seem to have a working grasp of his catch-phrase "free speech absolutism" and what's happened with products that went in that direction.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Um, no. You are over-looking that Tesla operates in different markets from Twitter. They don't compete with one another and a license deal for AI technology would be mutually beneficial to both companies in a huge way. It feels like you are trying to take the very strengths and synergies of the incredible base of knowledge and know-how within Musk companies and trying to present it as if it's a liability.

Tesla and SpaceX regularly help each other out, Tesla provides electric motors and controllers for use in rocket thruster gimbals and SpaceX provides metallurgical expertise for Tesla's manufacturing operations. That is just the tip of the iceberg of things these companies bill each other for. It's mutually beneficial.

What you are claiming has no basis in the real world, a world where companies routinely work with one another to leverage their individual strengths. There are no losers in these types of technology transfers.

> What you are claiming has no basis in the real world, a world where companies routinely work with one another to leverage their individual strengths. There are no losers in these types of technology transfers.

Name one example where there is a CEO of a public company handing intellectual property from the public company to another independent private venture that's owned and run by the same CEO?

 

[mad474]

Name one example where there is a CEO of a public company handing intellectual property from the public company to another independent private venture that's owned and run by the same CEO?

This is about synergy in the truest sense of the word (rather than intellectual property or other transfers in the narrow legal sense)

 

[ZenRockGarden]

This is about synergy in the truest sense of the word (rather than intellectual property or other transfers in the narrow legal sense)

I'm not saying Dojo might not be a good tool for Twitter. I'm saying Tesla is a public company and it's CEO does have legal and feduciary duty to represent the best interest of Teslas shareholders even if it would be convenient to hand over key technology to the CEO's private side venture.

I'll ask again based on the earlier posters assertion that this is totally normal. Give ONE example. CEO of public company signs license agreement to hand over key technology to a private venture that he just so happens to also own and operate for his own personal gain.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I might be imagining it, but wasn't there mention during a conference call or AI day or something about eventually selling runtime on Dojo to other companies to run AI tasks? They wouldn't be selling the hardware, just time on it. You would buy time on it much like any other cloud service.

There would be no handing over of key technology, rather, an established pricing model for anyone to buy time, and Twitter could buy time.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I might be imagining it, but wasn't there mention during a conference call or AI day or something about eventually selling runtime on Dojo to other companies to run AI tasks? They wouldn't be selling the hardware, just time on it. You would buy time on it much like any other cloud service.

There would be no handing over of key technology, rather, an established pricing model for anyone to buy time, and Twitter could buy time.

What established pricing model? What marketplace of other companies not owned by Elon buying and using Dojo? Which would-be Twitter competitors getting equal access to the tech if they want it?

None of you see ANY potential conflict of interest in a negotiation with the same person being the CEO on both sides of the table? I again ask for any non-Tesla example of a public company licensing key IP to a private company owned and operated by the public company's CEO for his own personal gain.

 

[jeewee3000]

Step back even further - what public company would authorize their CEO to go run another new adventure and stay on the payroll?

What payroll? The salary of the Technoking is $0 per year.

 

[MikeC]

Tesla targets pre-lockdown output in Shanghai by mid-May

Tesla Inc is aiming to increase output at its Shanghai plant to 2,600 cars a day from May 16, it said in an internal memo seen by Reuters, as it seeks to restore production to levels before the city locked down to control COVID-19.

www.reuters.com

“Tesla is aiming to run two shifts at its Shanghai plant from May 16, an internal memo seen by Reuters said, which would enable the U.S. carmarker to bring factory output back to levels before the city's lockdown.

The U.S. carmaker plans to churn out 2,600 electric cars from the Shanghai plant per day from then, the memo showed.”

 

[15Peter20]

View attachment 801117

From personal observation I'd have expected Polestar to have greater representation. Ditto Tesla to be honest.

 

[Chenkers]

Tesla targets pre-lockdown output in Shanghai by mid-May

Tesla Inc is aiming to increase output at its Shanghai plant to 2,600 cars a day from May 16, it said in an internal memo seen by Reuters, as it seeks to restore production to levels before the city locked down to control COVID-19.

www.reuters.com

“Tesla is aiming to run two shifts at its Shanghai plant from May 16, an internal memo seen by Reuters said, which would enable the U.S. carmarker to bring factory output back to levels before the city's lockdown.

The U.S. carmaker plans to churn out 2,600 electric cars from the Shanghai plant per day from then, the memo showed.”

27 days from April 19 to May 15 @ 1200/day plus 46 days from May 16 to EOQ @ 2600/day would put total production from Shanghai for Q2 at 152,000.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

What payroll? The salary of the Technoking is $0 per year.

I'm sorry - you are of course correct. Elon is not a Tesla employee. He is not an officer of the company. He receives no compensation of any kind and has not duties at the company. No stock options, no healthcare benefits, no paid expenses, no free travel, absolutely no involvement with Tesla. My bad.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla targets pre-lockdown output in Shanghai by mid-May

Tesla Inc is aiming to increase output at its Shanghai plant to 2,600 cars a day from May 16, it said in an internal memo seen by Reuters, as it seeks to restore production to levels before the city locked down to control COVID-19.

www.reuters.com

“Tesla is aiming to run two shifts at its Shanghai plant from May 16, an internal memo seen by Reuters said, which would enable the U.S. carmarker to bring factory output back to levels before the city's lockdown.

The U.S. carmaker plans to churn out 2,600 electric cars from the Shanghai plant per day from then, the memo showed.”

That makes best-case** in Shanghai for Q2 as approx. (6*7+4)*2600+4*6*1200 = 148,400 units. Note that Q1 was roughly 183K at GF3, so that's ~ 35K fewer.

Now toss in Berlin Q2 at 1,200/wk in Apr/May and 2,000 in June, that's approx. 18K. Maybe (i dunno) half-ish that from Austin? So maybe 17K fewer from the 3 new plants in Q2 as Shanghai alone in Q1? (NB: large error bars in this estimate, so YMMV*).

Then, Fremont becomes the wildcard. Let's say add similar additional S/X prod in Q2 as we saw in Q1, which was +1.1 K extra S/X. So if Fremont 3/Y prod. just matches Q1, then Q2 total production comes in at around 299K, with potential upside if S/X ramps faster.

Now I won't go all Chowdry on a Fremont 3/Y run rate, but l do note that in order to match Q1 total production, they only need to raise 3/Y Q2 total by 6,700 units, or about +40 cars per 10-hr shift). That's also about a 6% increase in production. We know Fremont has been supply constrained, not GA limited. So if those chips and such are available, I think +6% is quite doable. Paging @The Accountant

27 days from April 19 to May 15

Giga Shanghai was running a single 12-hr shift, 6 days per week during that time. So I put it at 24 days @ 1,200 (though their may have been some ramp-up time in the first 2-3 days, per local reports)

Cheers to the longs!
*deliberately obfuscated to confuse the bots and scalpers.
**Edt'd for GF3 in Q2 is ~2600*7*12 = 218.4K

 

[jeewee3000]

I'm sorry - you are of course correct. Elon is not a Tesla employee. He is not an officer of the company. He receives no compensation of any kind and has not duties at the company. No stock options, no healthcare benefits, no paid expenses, no free travel, absolutely no involvement with Tesla. My bad.

Thanks for the sarcasm, I needed that with my morning coffee.

Just admit Elon is a darn cheap CEO that adds insane value. And CEO's are not obliged to work full-time at all, they just have to get the job done. So what if he undertakes another venture in his spare time? (And yes, Twitter won't take up that much of Elon's time. One videocall every week and some e-mails in which Elon tells programmers what he wants the software to look like and it's done. Just a hobby for a man like Elon.)

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm not saying Dojo might not be a good tool for Twitter. I'm saying Tesla is a public company and it's CEO does have legal and feduciary duty to represent the best interest of Teslas shareholders even if it would be convenient to hand over key technology to the CEO's private side venture.

I'll ask again based on the earlier posters assertion that this is totally normal. Give ONE example. CEO of public company signs license agreement to hand over key technology to a private venture that he just so happens to also own and operate for his own personal gain.

You already had an example. Tesla and SpaceX.

 

[Mengy]

History is full of people who told Elon what he didn't have enough know-how to do and were as wrong as wrong could be. I suspect you will be in good (bad) company.

Elon doesn't know how to manufacture cars. He doesn't know how to do it in volume. He doesn't know what kind of cars people want. Auto manufacturers understand their customers in a way that Elon cannot. No one has grown production of large complex products at 50% per year for years running. It's impossible.
Elon cannot land rockets. Even NASA can't land rockets and they have over half a century of know-how.
Elon can't reform Twitter because he doesn't understand the nuances of language. Free speech is a complex topic that Elon has no expertise in. Twitter has learned a thing or two as they became one of the most popular social networks to ever be devised. Elon cannot be effective here, he is out of his league.

Any questions?

I remember all of those over the many years! It's hilarious thinking back while STILL seeing people doubt Elon's capabilities today. The very reason I own Tesla stock is because Elon has proven himself to be a "miracle worker".

I say let Elon be Elon and if you don't like it then don't own TSLA, very simple.

 

[SO16]

If Elon never used Twitter or social media and just one day woke up and said “I’m going to buy Twitter”, I’d be extremely concerned.

But Elon is very familiar with the product. Thought about it for years. Knows Jack Dorsey well (founder and former CEO of Twitter.). Jack is extremely supportive of Elon buying it.

I’m pretty confident that Jack and Elon have talked about ideas extensively and Elon already has a plan ready to go the moment he takes over. Will there be some tweaks to that plan? Of course.

But I’m really not worried about this at all.

I would have preferred Elon not do this but one thing is for sure, this has all exposed where politicians and people land. Been an interesting social case.

Elon will probably only be CEO of Twitter for a handful of months. Tesla will be fine during this time even if Elon is rarely there. I cannot believe Elon would sacrifice Tesla for Twitter. If the “you know what” hit the fan at Tesla, he’d focus on that. He dropped everything to work on rapter engine production for a time. He goes to where the issues are.