Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Since he does this every quarter and then raises his numbers at the end of the quarter and acts like he's success rate is much better than it really is, I'd like everyone to take note that Troy's at 268k for Q2 and at 1.37 million now for 2022. Sorry but getting lucky because of the China shutdown doesn't absolve him of the fact that all throughout 2021, he grossly underestimated P/D numbers for the first 2 months of the quarter every quarter, only to raise it dramatically in the last 2 weeks of the quarter. Q4 was especially atrocious at this ploy.

I'd like to remind everyone he was at 865k for 2021 back in Q1 of 2021 and this was before there was S/X refresh production issues, meaning he severely underestimated 3/Y production out of Fremont and Shanghai for 2021. So not only does Troy not believe Tesla's own guidance for Q2 (slightly lower than Q1 to even), but he lowballs 2022 total P/D with laughable numbers from Berlin/Austin in Q3/Q4.

If I seem annoyed at the guy, it's because of posts like this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522674194735144966

I've seen him time after time make posts with an assertive tone when in fact he has zero inside information. Pretty sure he's talking about the Trip report stating Fremont was 20% over it's usual production capacity.

I think most of us here know that Trip isn't a worthwhile source on Fremont production output. But Fremont very well could be running production at higher rates than they did in Q1 or Q4 2021 because Tesla themselves have said the factory hasn't been running at maximum capacity.

 

[nativewolf]

Since he does this every quarter and then raises his numbers at the end of the quarter and acts like he's success rate is much better than it really is, I'd like everyone to take note that Troy's at 268k for Q2 and at 1.37 million now for 2022. Sorry but getting lucky because of the China shutdown doesn't absolve him of the fact that all throughout 2021, he grossly underestimated P/D numbers for the first 2 months of the quarter every quarter, only to raise it dramatically in the last 2 weeks of the quarter. Q4 was especially atrocious at this ploy.

I'd like to remind everyone he was at 865k for 2021 back in Q1 of 2021 and this was before there was S/X refresh production issues, meaning he severely underestimated 3/Y production out of Fremont and Shanghai for 2021. So not only does Troy not believe Tesla's own guidance for Q2 (slightly lower than Q1 to even), but he lowballs 2022 total P/D with laughable numbers from Berlin/Austin in Q3/Q4.

If I seem annoyed at the guy, it's because of posts like this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522674194735144966

I've seen him time after time make posts with an assertive tone when in fact he has zero inside information. Pretty sure he's talking about the Trip report stating Fremont was 20% over it's usual production capacity.

I think most of us here know that Trip isn't a worthwhile source on Fremont production output. But Fremont very well could be running production at higher rates than they did in Q1 or Q4 2021 because Tesla themselves have said the factory hasn't been running at maximum capacity.

And that offends you because you are paying so much for his services? Go roll your own and start a company around it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And that offends you because you are paying so much for his services? Go roll your own and start a company around it.

Well for one, it doesn't offend me....it annoys me. And for someone to be as wrong as he was in 2021, especially with his first/second months of the quarters and especially his 2021 estimate, I think his arrogance as to how he responds to others that question why he's so assertive on his estimates to be quite annoying. So I'll be as annoyed with Troy as I want to be

I also think to post estimates that contradict Tesla's own guidance for this quarter and for the year that was given just 2 weeks ago is a disservice to those that follow him and frankly, FUD.

 

[insaneoctane]

Here’s a Morningstar article that suggests diamond hands are often misguided and only for diversified equity portfolios. Ha! I think they just want my shares….
There Is Only One Reason to Have Diamond Hands

 

[CLK350]

I didn't want a Twitter account before Elon bought it and I don't want one now. I avoid the toxic social media rabbit hole and that isn't going to change. I already support Elon plenty by holding almost all my net worth in TSLA. If anything, Elon owes me support for selling down the value of my TSLA shares to fund this ill-advised Twitter acquisition.

You would be right for 90% of social networks like Facebook, Instagram etc. Then what is your best source of unbiased, more objective news? Knowing that most media companies (news, sports, movies, entertainment, games .. .) are owned by 6 corporations, how do you keep up with "the news"? is it a coincidence that 90% of people have no idea a completely wrong idea of what Elon really did and from what he started when he came to the US via a stint in Canada, from SA?

What is really toxic is relying on a select few news channels in our "comfort zone". And then being subtly manipulated by whoever controls the media (and the politicians).

Even relying on Google for its excellent search lets "them" manipulate you. In case you weren't aware (I wasn't till recently, so I use a different browser and VPN to make their job a bit harder) - and I use DuckDuckGo and a couple other less censored search engines to get less censored news/ information.

I mention all this in the context of Elon's latest Twitter move.

We may want to believe all's best if Elon stays limited to Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Co etc. But I do believe Elon is way smarter than uh most of us (me certainly) and he didn't make this latest move if he didn't think it would be beneficial to Tesla's mission or humanity more generally. Recall he did start the Open AI foundation, later to separate from it as it wasn't fullfilling its original mission.

We are lucky (as investors) in that Elon is *also* an excellent businessman: he will make his enterprisees pay for themselves and more (euphemism). Look at Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Company if you have any doubts.

Remember, Tesla forever enemies are the SEC, the main mass media and Wall Street - so he's really taking them on now. Because now he can, with Tesla, SpaceX all in good hands as we have seen. We have gotten so used to a corrupt SEC, Wall Street and all politicians we have sort of accepted it as normal. But it isn't normal. It may only take one push for people to finally wake up. This is my hope, and I'm really so happy Elon is taking on the challenge.

Edit: video mentioned above by Epstein, from the Harvard trained PhD now at the Cambridge Center for Behavioral Studies

Robert Epstein: Inside Big Tech’s Manipulation Machine and How to Stop It

“They hold in their hands the power to change thinking and behavior on a massive scale, the power—in close elections anyway—to pick the winner, in country ...

www.theepochtimes.com

 

[GOVA]

Didn’t see it anywhere on the last 5 pages but I could have missed it. Model 3 and Y being delivered without Charging Ports (not the cable, the port itself) and being held at the delivery center until the part comes in. Reports of the same thing at multiple locations.

Yes, I can confirm. I dropped off my MY that did not charge unless on SC. Apparently it had charger ECU failure which is backordered per SC Tech. I got my car back the same day but there were MYs on the lot waiting for it. It is a part of the charger assembly. The tech said they were waiting for those parts to install and then distribute those cars.

 

[ZeApelido]

I know you guys like Tesla but i just learned from a radio commercial that the most innovative tech company is…

Comcast

Invest wisely

 

[Tim S]

Yes, I can confirm. I dropped off my MY that did not charge unless on SC. Apparently it had charger ECU failure which is backordered per SC Tech. I got my car back the same day but there were MYs on the lot waiting for it. It is a part of the charger assembly. The tech said they were waiting for those parts to install and then distribute those cars.

Wow, that's gotta be some kind of acronym record... SC used with 2 different meanings in consecutive sentences! Too bad you're not in South Carolina

 

[StealthP3D]

You would be right for 90% of social networks like Facebook, Instagram etc. Then what is your best source of unbiased, more objective news? Knowing that most media companies (news, sports, movies, entertainment, games .. .) are owned by 6 corporations, how do you keep up with "the news"? is it a coincidence that 90% of people have no idea a completely wrong idea of what Elon really did and from what he started when he came to the US via a stint in Canada, from SA?

What is really toxic is relying on a select few news channels in our "comfort zone". And then being subtly manipulated by whoever controls the media (and the politicians).

Even relying on Google for its excellent search lets "them" manipulate you. In case you weren't aware (I wasn't till recently, so I use a different browser and VPN to make their job a bit harder) - and I use DuckDuckGo and a couple other less censored search engines to get less censored news/ information.

View attachment 801366

I mention all this in the context of Elon's latest Twitter move.

We may want to believe all's best if Elon stays limited to Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Co etc. But I do believe Elon is way smarter than uh most of us (me certainly) and he didn't make this latest move if he didn't think it would be beneficial to Tesla's mission or humanity more generally. Recall he did start the Open AI foundation, later to separate from it as it wasn't fullfilling its original mission.

We are lucky (as investors) in that Elon is *also* an excellent businessman: he will make his enterprisees pay for themselves and more (euphemism). Look at Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Company if you have any doubts.

Remember, Tesla forever enemies are the SEC, the main mass media and Wall Street - so he's really taking them on now. Because now he can, with Tesla, SpaceX all in good hands as we have seen. We have gotten so used to a corrupt SEC, Wall Street and all politicians we have sort of accepted it as normal. But it isn't normal. It may only take one push for people to finally wake up. This is my hope, and I'm really so happy Elon is taking on the challenge.

Edit: video mentioned above by Epstein, from the Harvard trained PhD now at the Cambridge Center for Behavioral Studies

Robert Epstein: Inside Big Tech’s Manipulation Machine and How to Stop It

“They hold in their hands the power to change thinking and behavior on a massive scale, the power—in close elections anyway—to pick the winner, in country ...

www.theepochtimes.com

Thank you for taking the time to explain that. It's a much needed perspective, at least if we go by the number of people who seem to think the Twitter buyout is Elon jumping down the rabbit hole. It amazes me how blind to reality people can be.

People with a dim view of Elon's Twitter acquisition need to understand what humanity is up against and why Elon might do something that seems like nothing more than a distraction when it is really something more. Much more.

 

[StealthP3D]

Through the miracle of Quote, imagination is not required. Presenting alternate universe @StealthP3D ...

If I judge that my time is not being well spent, I may "agree to disagree" with a poster who either cannot see what should be obvious or who (more likely) is playing Devil's advocate to try to cast doubt and tarnish Robert's image (and the value of CMCSA stock) by portraying Roberts as someone who is dumping CMCSA shares because he secretly knows they will soon be worthless. I am not obligated to debate what should be obvious, namely that Robert's CMCSA sales are not designed to maximize future value but are to enable him to spread his wings and no longer be cash poor and in debt to Wall Street (margin loans).

------

It's not clear what you are disagreeing with me on. It sure sounds like you are saying it is not my right to "agree to disagree" rather than debate the uninteresting. And I find those who question Robert's motives in selling CMCSA shares very uninteresting. Sometimes the truth is so obvious there is no point in debating it with people who see it differently. Just because a person is correct does not mean they are obligated to debate. This is what "agreeing to disagree" means.

If you insist that Apollo did not actually land on the moon, that it was all staged in the Arizona desert, I will "agree to disagree" even though your position would be factually incorrect.

------

Productivity should naturally follow job growth, not happen concurrently and the COVID disruption should amplify that by shaking things up.

But the really odd thing about CMCSA's low valuation is the state of the economy does not dictate CMCSA's growth rate in the typical sense and should have a less impact on its valuation for that reason. But investors are not the sharpest pencils in the box (even if they have most of the money). Never confuse money with intelligence. Yes, there is a correlation, but it is not as strong as most people with money like to believe.

------

If you are actually good at what you do, you are too valuable to the company for them to worry about whether you take zero time off or four weeks every year to have a nice vacation. Comcast has a pragmatic corporate perspective so, if you fall into the "valuable" type of employee, you already know where you stand.

If you are already of below average benefit to the company, and you want to keep your job, then you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that a long vacation is risky. Most people at Comcast are there because they want meaningful work in their lives, not busy work.

-----

What are you talking about and do you have a coherent point? Tesla is not Comcast and I'm not sure why you are confused about that.

 

[mrmage]

What are you talking about and do you have a coherent point? Tesla is not Comcast and I'm not sure why you are confused about that.

The idea of you supporting Comcast like Tesla seemed funny when @ZeApelido brought up the idea. It sounded pretty funny when I looked up recent posts and replaced Tesla with Comcast. I just noticed he deleted his post though, so guess I'll do the same.

It was satire based on @ZeApelido 's post of an alternate universe where you are a Comcast Bull.
ZeApelido has since deleted the post.

I am too slow today...

 

[Doit]

You would be right for 90% of social networks like Facebook, Instagram etc. Then what is your best source of unbiased, more objective news? Knowing that most media companies (news, sports, movies, entertainment, games .. .) are owned by 6 corporations, how do you keep up with "the news"? is it a coincidence that 90% of people have no idea a completely wrong idea of what Elon really did and from what he started when he came to the US via a stint in Canada, from SA?

What is really toxic is relying on a select few news channels in our "comfort zone". And then being subtly manipulated by whoever controls the media (and the politicians).

Even relying on Google for its excellent search lets "them" manipulate you. In case you weren't aware (I wasn't till recently, so I use a different browser and VPN to make their job a bit harder) - and I use DuckDuckGo and a couple other less censored search engines to get less censored news/ information.

View attachment 801366

I mention all this in the context of Elon's latest Twitter move.

We may want to believe all's best if Elon stays limited to Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Co etc. But I do believe Elon is way smarter than uh most of us (me certainly) and he didn't make this latest move if he didn't think it would be beneficial to Tesla's mission or humanity more generally. Recall he did start the Open AI foundation, later to separate from it as it wasn't fullfilling its original mission.

We are lucky (as investors) in that Elon is *also* an excellent businessman: he will make his enterprisees pay for themselves and more (euphemism). Look at Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Company if you have any doubts.

Remember, Tesla forever enemies are the SEC, the main mass media and Wall Street - so he's really taking them on now. Because now he can, with Tesla, SpaceX all in good hands as we have seen. We have gotten so used to a corrupt SEC, Wall Street and all politicians we have sort of accepted it as normal. But it isn't normal. It may only take one push for people to finally wake up. This is my hope, and I'm really so happy Elon is taking on the challenge.

Edit: video mentioned above by Epstein, from the Harvard trained PhD now at the Cambridge Center for Behavioral Studies

Robert Epstein: Inside Big Tech’s Manipulation Machine and How to Stop It

“They hold in their hands the power to change thinking and behavior on a massive scale, the power—in close elections anyway—to pick the winner, in country ...

www.theepochtimes.com

Just want to point out that your cited screenshot per se is a manipulation. The source you cited (The Epoch Time) is one of the most biased media on the World Wild Web.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

What established pricing model? What marketplace of other companies not owned by Elon buying and using Dojo? Which would-be Twitter competitors getting equal access to the tech if they want it?

None of you see ANY potential conflict of interest in a negotiation with the same person being the CEO on both sides of the table? I again ask for any non-Tesla example of a public company licensing key IP to a private company owned and operated by the public company's CEO for his own personal gain.

Just because there are not yet any established rates for Dojo (that we know of, at least), does not mean there wouldn't be as soon as the first external (this includes Twitter) Dojo customer came along. Whatever rates were decided for Twitter, if it were first, would reasonably be expected to be the same as for any other customer, otherwise there might be questions in the form of lawsuits asked.

As you say, he would be CEO on both sides, so would not want to hurt either company, so the value assigned to Dojo runtime should be established at a reasonable value that neither rips off Twitter nor undervalues the service Tesla's Dojo provides, so that in the future they can sell the service to other non-Elon companies and not rip himself (Tesla) off by undervaluing it just to save Twitter some bucks.

The conflict of interest would make sense if this were something tangible being sold off in whole, that Tesla had invested money in, and were forced to give up for little to no compensation. However, Dojo would remain Tesla's, and only time being sold, and at a rate that would surely be at worst break even and probably profitable, which means that if the demand for Dojo exceeds their initial plans, they can afford to add more hardware based on the ongoing sales of time on the hardware.

As for competitors getting equal access - when has Elon refused to do this? He'd fly payloads for Amazon at normal SpaceX customer rates, if Amazon wanted (though Amazon on the other hand decided to buy launches from everyone EXCEPT SpaceX for the satellites, even though this means their launch costs are likely much higher than they need to be). He's offered repeatedly to let other vehicles use the Tesla charging networks, and now in Type 2 territories this is happening (partially due to enforced commonality of charging interface making this easier to implement, though anyone could have licensed the Tesla charging interface in Type 1 areas if they wanted).

 

[Phrugal Phan]

Didn’t see it anywhere on the last 5 pages but I could have missed it. Model 3 and Y being delivered without Charging Ports (not the cable, the port itself) and being held at the delivery center until the part comes in. Reports of the same thing at multiple locations.

Oh my... I am to pick up my car at that exact location (in the image) this Sunday. This could be interesting....

 

[ZenRockGarden]

As you say, he would be CEO on both sides, so would not want to hurt either company, so the value assigned to Dojo runtime should be established at a reasonable value that neither rips off Twitter nor undervalues the service Tesla's Dojo provides, so that in the future they can sell the service to other non-Elon companies and not rip himself (Tesla) off by undervaluing it just to save Twitter some bucks.

You don't seem to understand the fundamental conflict of interest.

Tesla shareholders own the rights to Dojo because it was built at Tesla and Tesla is a public company. By being CEO, of both sides of the negotiation Elon has the authority to force a deal thru that Tesla never would have made with Twitter if he wasn't in charge of Tesla. That's the definition of cronyism and literally self-dealing. Even if the deal is fair, it risks lawsuits because it looks crooked unless whatever is being sold or licensed is made available to every other company at the same price including all of Twitters would-be competitors.

And it is a complete distraction from the best interest of Tesla which needs their best and brightest working on Teslas problems, not solving Twitters.

 

[dhanson865]

OK, I have to ask about #2.

On the most recent call, Tesla said they were taking scrap aluminum, including that from ICE wheels, and melting it down and feeding it back into the production process.

That didn't sound compatible to me with the special proprietary formulation making the Gigapress possible/better. How can they achieve the special formulation when feeding it with random melted scrap?

What am I missing?

Any wheels that haven't been contaminated by nuclear radiation can be melted down a sorted out (skimmed) to the major metal components and then combined with the ingots used to make the special ratio needed without any negative effects. Iron is iron no matter how many times you form it and remelt it. Aluminum is still Aluminum after you melt it, form it, remelt it. If you are already working with those metals it's not above the science they are already using to process some material from a side source.

Make it hot, add stuff in the right ratio, skim off impurities, use it, make it hot, add stuff in the right ratio, skim off impurities. Use it. It's not rocket science just because they got help from spaceX employees.

I don't know if they have the lab on site or send samples off for analysis but they have to be testing this stuff on a regular basis and I expect they can and do adjust frequently and have a good idea how much material they can add of each type without leaving the desired envelope (there is some room to deviate materials).

 

[dhanson865]

25k hired from 3 million applications. Acceptance rate is 0.83%

Stanford acceptance rate is 5.2%

I don't think that covers 2 concepts

* turnover

If annual turnover is about 10% you could call it ~80 applicants per placement. If turnover is higher than that the number of applicants per placement would drop accordingly.

* people that apply more than once (multiple times for one position and/or applying for multiple positions).

The math there just is just too opaque, we don't know how that would effect the ratio.

 

[Artful Dodger]

On the math above: is that 6 weeks at 7 days per week (plus 4 more days for the partial week)?

Yes, and I suggest it is an upper bound for the balance of Q2. Rob Maurer published a similar estimate today:

BTW, Q3 looks amazing @ 80K/mth from GF3. That's about 218K for 12 weeks of production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm arriving at a lower number for Shanghai. I have 132,800. Let me know where my math or assumptions are off. I'm assuming 6 day work weeks.

The 6-day work week was due to the single shift of workers onsite beginning Apr 19 (with no relief allowed into the work bubble, they need a day a week of rest). That'll go until Mon, May 16 and we've heard multiple reports that production is 1,200/day currently. So 4 * 6 * 1,200 = 28,800 for GF3 during the 'single-shift' period. Maybe a few less due to ramp over 2-3 days from Apr 19.

Then I'm assuming that the second shift will NOT be yet another isolated group, and that they'll come and go daily (with all necessary daily medical checks). So that's why I think it'll be 2 shifts / 7 days/wk since crew rotations can occur, resuming normal continuous operations (the local gov't is making this a huge priority, esp. the supply chain).

That's 46 days at 2,600 cars/day (again, upper bound est'd) which is 119,600 cars during the remainder of the quarter, for a total of 148,800 from Q2 at GF3 (max.)

 

[RobStark]