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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Low 700s? If so, back up the truck, this is a fire sale we won't see again.

/goes to shake cushions in infamous sofa
When TSLA loses momentum, it really loses momentum. Not even tracking to its beta today despite TTM PE nearing 100.

So if there is an attempt to drive the Nasdaq down below 11,000, I doubt TSLA even holds 700
 
I've thought about this quote recently and in the past:


“In terms of the Internet, it's like humanity acquiring a collective nervous system. Whereas previously we were more like a [?], like a collection of cells that communicated by diffusion. With the advent of the Internet, it was suddenly like we got a nervous system. It's a hugely impactful thing.”​


When it comes to the electricity consumption and utilization, it's the backbone of anything society does. To me, the analogy is it's being stripped out and replaced with a spearhead that's Tesla and other manufacturers are coming in for the ride to make the transition. The internet might be like a new nervous system for how we communicate for society's collective growth at large, but electricity consumption and utilization has been around since Edison for over a century. It's a more painful procedure. The ok to give the procedure was made by the Paris Climate Accord.

My abstract 2 cents. Personally, think Musk is product-ifying and gaining expertise in infrastructure across all areas for quite some time.

In terms of specifics and a question, I brought this up in the Rivian thread as Ford is being lumped in to various discussions:

In 2024, what's the EV car market going to look like and who's going to have market share in it? How about 2030? Right now, its all Tesla for practical purposes of analysis.

2024 estimated run-rates:
Tesla - 3M?
Ford - 600k?
Rivian - 100k?
VW - ???
Nissan - ???

We're still only looking at 4-5M car run-rate in 2024 for the whole EV market. In a traditional auto market that we know of at 5% car utilization, we're talking about replacing 100M cars produced annually...

...in a robotaxi + tunnel scenario with EV 100% car utilization, what's the number? Has anyone done the analysis on this?
 
Checks couch...

1652108940075.png
 
2024 estimated run-rates:
Tesla - 3M?
Ford - 600k?
Rivian - 100k?
VW - ???
Nissan - ???

We're still only looking at 4-5M car run-rate in 2024 for the whole EV market. In a traditional auto market that we know of at 5% car utilization, we're talking about replacing 100M cars produced annually...
You forgot all the Chinese & Korean automakers ?
 
Whoop - Saudi Aramco (Big Oil) looks about to pass Apple as the most valuable company in the world.

Sad, messed up times. Still looking forward to the day (late 2023?) when Tesla becomes the most valuable company in the world).

1652109337698.png


 
Whoop - Saudi Aramco (Big Oil) looks about to pass Apple as the most valuable company in the world.

Sad, messed up times. Still looking forward to the day (late 2023?) when Tesla becomes the most valuable company in the world).

View attachment 802146

That valuation is set by.....the Saudi Royal family. Wealthy Saudis not invested in Aramco can literally be kidnapped and/or murdered. It's worth probably$400-500B today.
 
You forgot all the Chinese & Korean automakers ?

Aye, I didn't take them into account. Who's there? Tesla, BYD, SAIC, NIO, Xpeng...


NIO: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-will-nio-be-in-5-years-2021-10-23

BYD: BYD Sets Target To Sell Up To 1.2 Million NEVs In 2022

By 2024, let's say that adds another...3M in back of the napkin math if you add a 50% CAGR to current sales?

As an aside, this report from 2019 was particularly informative:

 
That valuation is set by.....the Saudi Royal family. Wealthy Saudis not invested in Aramco can literally be kidnapped and/or murdered. It's worth probably$400-500B today.
One must forever and always remember that OPEC member market allotments (how much they can pump and sell) are set as a percentage of "proven" reserves. Since day one of it's formation, OPEC members have had incentive to lie about their actual reserves.
It's an absolute shadow play.
 
I'm not sure if there's much point to increasing current incentives. Demand is really high already.
Right now you have german car dealers advertising: "Drive a tesla for free for 6 months!"
So they will buy it back after 6 months for msrp - incentives. And then export to other europe, making a nice profit.

Not for Tesla. But it could push other automakers away from fossil fueled cars faster since this will make electric cars an even better deal than their fossil fueled twins. Fossil OEMs could even increase prices and still sell their EVs.

Which is good!
 
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