TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I thought it was watching your TSLA shares lose 8% and your TSLA LEAPs lose 22%?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This hits too close to home
jhm
Well-Known Member
Looks like you could use a margin loan for a little more diversification.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I actually only own 2 shares as of today, everything's in LEAPs already plus a few Nov calls.
Have a lot of cash, but I need it! It's taking everything I've got to stay away from more Nov calls. Not doin it .....unless we hit $700 again. Then I simply don't have a choice.
Yeah, that is basically what I did for one of my accounts that was up 80X at one point. Took on margin it out to buy GOOG options to play the split. Because cheap and skyrocket right?
Think I have contained the damage, but threatened the viability of a very nice account for no damn good reason.
Two edge sword for certain.
Keep in mind 2Q TSLA report is almost certain to be spun as an unmitigated disaster.
I've been pretty vocal that I think the numbers being floated around have a fundamental flaw in them. Mainly because no one takes into account Q1 had 15 lost days of production itself. Everyone seems to be taking what was the actual Q1 production and subtracting the lost production to get these really low Q1 Shanghai numbers.
However, what I feel they should be doing is taking the theoretical maximum that Q1 would have had if not for the lost production days. The monthly production for Q1 if not for the lost production days would have been around the 68k mark, for a total of 204k production. April has essentially lost about 75% of it's production, so missing about 51k. So I think that Shanghai will do 153k for Q2.
If Tesla reaches a new weekly production rate that is materially higher than the previous mark at Shanghai, around 78-80k for production is possible in June. Even Rob has the same math as me here.
Add in 130k from Fremont and 20k from Berlin/Austin and we're right at 305-310k production for Q2. As for EPS and margins, even if deliveries come in around 300-305k, while gross margin may be down a bit from less Shanghai production, I think operating margin could actually be higher than Q1 and thus, EPS higher. This thought is mainly driven from that fact that both Berlin/Austin already had a lot of operating costs associated with them in Q1. Things like utilities, paying employees at both factories (which easily top 5,000 combined at this point), etc....
Those operating costs were impacting Q1, but Berlin only delivered a handful of vehicles and Austin delivered none. So there was no revenue coming in to cover those operating costs. Which disproportionally hit operating margin.
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Bet TSLA
Active Member
The notion that Elon (or anybody at Tesla) would ever support a bean counter as CEO is absurd. It doesn't matter in the least how wonderful he might be at counting beans. If Tesla ever needs a successor for Elon, it will be an engineer. Zach is doing great at what he's doing, but he's never being CEO of Tesla.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We're in a place where that doesn't matter anymore, quarterly earnings aren't what's keeping this stock down. 2Q will be perfectly fine or great, margins should be even better than 1Q, and guidance should be maintained or perhaps even increased if there's no further shutdown at Shanghai and we see supply chain recovery.
When TSLA takes off it'll be completely out of the blue. I could actually see your sentiment above being the ignition for the next rapid rise to ATH. Consensus might be for a 2Q earnings letdown, options market follows that sentiment, and then......boom. Good earnings show up, PE drops to 90, and MMs let the SP ride to $1350 and crush the whole options market.
Black swans fly south AND north.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
What does any of this have to do with Tesla investing? Seems to me all such comments can accomplish is add negativity to the forum and indirectly antagonize people who call these cities home. Also, how can you so confidently judge the quality of life of a place you’ve only briefly visited in the last five years?
About a quarter of us on this forum live in or near these West Coast metro areas. About half of the global Tesla fleet is in these markets. I arrived in Seattle in 2015 too, but stayed the whole time since, and except for an increase in homeless population and summer wildfire smoke, I can’t even perceive any difference.
Here in Seattle, I count no less than 14 skyscrapers currently under construction, plus renovations on hundreds of smaller buildings and explosive growth in surrounding suburban cities. Contractors have long project backlogs even despite dramatically raising prices.
Young professionals continue to be attracted here and the population keeps on rising. Diverse culture full of immigrants from all over the US and the globe. Solid brewery, coffee, food, music and art scenes. Clean air and tap water. Some of the best free festivals in America.
Median per Capita annual income is $65k. 95% of the population has a high school diploma and 65% have at least a bachelor's degree. Finding a $15+ per hour entry level job is easy. The tech entrepreneurship scene is thriving.
Gloriously beautiful gardens fill all the inner city neighborhoods. Hummingbirds whiz around pollinating the abundant supply of flowers. Mountains, lakes, bays and some of the best wildlife reserves in the world are within an hour drive in any direction. All of which can be accessed with some of the best bicycle infrastructure in America while enjoying cannabis without fear of jail time. Best of all…barely any mosquitoes.
Etc.
Everyone is free to have an opinion on places and decide which factors to weight heaviest in evaluating them. Nowhere is a utopia. However, expressions of those opinions belong in another location than the TMC investors thread.
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yeah..........as someone that actively lives in Seattle and has lived in the city for the past 14 years, this not true. Not even remotely true. Seeing a few tents from homeless here and there has no impact on the regular resident's QoL here.
And it has nothing to do with Tesla or Tesla as an investment.
The 6 block take over was quite the lawless spectacle.
As someone who has lived in the Seattle area for 17 years, you have no idea what you're talking about. Don't lump us in with cities in California.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Ask any engineer what use a fresh out of school new hire with a BS is. They'll tell you that if they're good, it's a reasonable place to start learning how to do the job. Ask them what use somebody like that would be after 15 years of doing something other than engineering and they'll just laugh.
All this tells me is that Zach used to think he might be interested in engineering. But then, we already knew that. He's not an engineer.
IIRC there was a discussion awhile back about Elon’s credentials. If there is one thing I’ve learned from reading about Tesla (mostly on this forum), is they really only care about how well someone thinks to get in the door, and after that what they do. Don’t judge a book by it’s cover - pretty sure Tesla doesn’t.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Tesla even highlighted this in the Impact Report.
“We have long stated publicly that candidates do not need to have a college degree to work at Tesla. This represents an enormous opportunity for high school graduates from underserved communities to join us in our mission and grow their careers.”
AimStellar
Member
There's no way that's real right?
Even I might have to join the anti-Ark fund that shorts Ark if that's true
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