It's real. Hard to imagine what they are thinking with this move.There's no way that's real right?
Even I might have to join the anti-Ark fund that shorts Ark if that's true
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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- elon is an ass
Based on today's low I've updated the price to sales valuation numbers. As I've stated before this is a quick and dirty valuation estimate. I use a simple trailing twelve month average of revenue divided by veh.
The estimates will not account for future increases/decreases in ASP or revenue from non-veh sales. As such, the further out the forecast, the worse the forecast will be.
For 2022 I assumed about equal q2 production as q1 and then a ramp to end the year near 1.5M vehicles produced. Based on today's low share price of $781 we now have a low (for now) price to sales ratio of 13.
This is a backwards looking valuation method and not ideal for a growth stock, however I like to use it to come to an idea on rough valuation without the fluctuations often found in earnings numbers.
For 2023 I assume 14% quarterly production growth and leave revenue per vehicle unchanged.
And here are the corresponding share price estimates using the same price to sales ratio:
As most of us agree, the driving force behind share appreciation will be continued revenue growth, increasing margins, and ever growing profits. As Tesla continues to exhibit these factors quarter after quarter and consensus on future growth improves I suspect we will see price to sales valuations climb back toward 20
The estimates will not account for future increases/decreases in ASP or revenue from non-veh sales. As such, the further out the forecast, the worse the forecast will be.
| 2022 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| trailing production | 1054 | 1153 | 1296 | 1505 |
| trailing revenue | 62,190,000.00 | 66,874,000.00 | 75,168,000.00 | 87,290,000.00 |
For 2022 I assumed about equal q2 production as q1 and then a ramp to end the year near 1.5M vehicles produced. Based on today's low share price of $781 we now have a low (for now) price to sales ratio of 13.
| P/S ratio | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 13 | $782 | $841 | $946 | $1,098 |
| 15 | $903 | $971 | $1,091 | $1,267 |
| 20 | $1,203 | $1,294 | $1,455 | $1,689 |
This is a backwards looking valuation method and not ideal for a growth stock, however I like to use it to come to an idea on rough valuation without the fluctuations often found in earnings numbers.
For 2023 I assume 14% quarterly production growth and leave revenue per vehicle unchanged.
| 2023 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| trailing production | 1785.96 | 2148.9544 | 2529.468016 | 2883.593538 |
| trailing revenue | 103,585,680.00 | 124,639,355.20 | 146,709,144.93 | 167,248,425.22 |
And here are the corresponding share price estimates using the same price to sales ratio:
| P/S ratio | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 13 | $1,303 | $1,568 | $1,845 | $2,104 |
| 15 | $1,503 | $1,809 | $2,129 | $2,427 |
| 20 | $2,005 | $2,412 | $2,839 | $3,237 |
As most of us agree, the driving force behind share appreciation will be continued revenue growth, increasing margins, and ever growing profits. As Tesla continues to exhibit these factors quarter after quarter and consensus on future growth improves I suspect we will see price to sales valuations climb back toward 20
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Maybe Sam forgot to pass the info on to Cathie
Fanfreakentastic
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www.reuters.com
Exclusive: Tesla halts most output at Shanghai plant, April sales dive
Tesla Inc has halted most of its production at its Shanghai plant due to problems securing parts for its electric vehicles, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters, the latest in a series of difficulties for the factory.
www.reuters.com
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I just wish I had been smart enough to buy crypto to hedge against inflation.
Well those protective 750 puts I bought to manage my margin sure are coming in handy.Fanfreakentastic
Exclusive: Tesla halts most output at Shanghai plant, April sales dive
Tesla Inc has halted most of its production at its Shanghai plant due to problems securing parts for its electric vehicles, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters, the latest in a series of difficulties for the factory.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Fanfreakentastic
Exclusive: Tesla halts most output at Shanghai plant, April sales dive
Tesla Inc has halted most of its production at its Shanghai plant due to problems securing parts for its electric vehicles, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters, the latest in a series of difficulties for the factory.
China needs to swallow their pride and order western-developed COVID vaccines, mass-vaccinate, and get things back on track for all their companies. ZERO-COVID is a failed experiment with a virus this contagious.
The hedgies are going to have a field day with this tomorrow.
Hoping against hope that Tesla can accelerate the ramp of Berlin and Austin. If anything, this has shown us we are current too dependent upon Shanghai in order to hit targets. Diversify diversify diversify.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Bitcoin is down 10% in a day. I'm assuming you were being sarcastic.
Pretty sure Tesla will move with macro more than these day to day news. So if Macro is super green tomorrow, Tesla will follow.Well those protective 750 puts I bought to manage my margin sure are coming in handy.
With that being said, if its some wiring harness or whatever, I can see Tesla air dropping US made parts into shanghai to keep production going for the time being. It's a good thing Tesla makes Model 3s and Ys just about everywhere and they have pretty much the same parts.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Another week or two(I assume) shutdown. Meh. We're still chip-limited, not floor mat limited. Once they ramp back up they'll catch up some.
In the mean time, I assume we can send some of our chip supply elsewhere?
I wonder if they can still produce parts that would normally be sent to Berlin?
In the mean time, I assume we can send some of our chip supply elsewhere?
I wonder if they can still produce parts that would normally be sent to Berlin?
Since Monday morning Shanghai is Sunday night in the US, maybe some of the dip today was people front-running the news?
Surprise, surprise.... reported by Reuters.Fanfreakentastic
Exclusive: Tesla halts most output at Shanghai plant, April sales dive
Tesla Inc has halted most of its production at its Shanghai plant due to problems securing parts for its electric vehicles, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters, the latest in a series of difficulties for the factory.
Xi's ego and grip on power getting in the way of what is best for the country. Wants to take a sledgehammer to a intangible virus.
You are under the assumption that China isn't doing this intentionally. But that's definitely not the subject of this thread.
Faulty brake liar. Why not reported via mainstream media. forget it.
www.benzinga.com
Tesla Faulty Brakes Accuser Admits Lying About Incident: What's Next? - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Last year, an owner of a Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) vehicle in China protested at an auto show saying their Tesla's brakes were faulty.
www.benzinga.com
Reuters is reporting fake news from sources???
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Reuters puts out fake news right before CPCA data late tonight……not the first time they’ve done it too btw
I see why Elon needs to buy twitter so we can get real facts from not-fake sources.
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