Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Argh. When to deploy the bulk of my remaining cash...that's the question. I expected a rally to be bigger than today. Wanted some reserves for possible Q2 earnings slump but it's getting harder to not think that's priced in with the negativity around China.

So you don't expect wedgies to retest YTD lows?

sc.TSLA.200-DayChart.2022-05-10.22-00.png
 
It was my understanding (although bear in mind I have the IQ of a small mollusc) that ARK has rules that if one stock is more than 10% of the value of one of the funds then it needs to be rebalanced, no?
My understanding is ARK can't buy more shares past ten percent of a fund, but they can hold while a stock runs up to a whopping 30%.

As an aside, I've been criticizing ARK for more than two years for selling Tesla and "buying junk". Maybe I said garbage. ARK invests with a 5 year time horizon so I should probably wait a couple more years before claiming bragging rights but I'm feeling pretty confident.
 
Chop it in half, extend the frame rails, remove the fifth wheel, build a badass EV RV on it.

OK, I kinda love this idea. Tesla Semi conversion-van. With like 1000 KWhr battery but none of the weight of the trailer and cargo. Put Tesla solar tiles on the roof or a side sun-shade and it's the perfect van-life-mobile. Oh, and a built-in StarLink of course.
 
What frame rails? CT doesn't have any, it uses a folded stainless steel monoque. Cut the skin, and you've undone all the engineering that makes CT work.
I was responding to @ZeApelido who said :
What am I, tech bro, going to do with my Tesla Semi?
So I was envisioning a Semi-based EV RV, not a Cybertruck one. You'd probably be looking at a 40' bus sized RV not one of those "van life" EVs :)
 
Watched the FT Elon interview. Wow. The fury in the 2nd half was just delicious. I'm not entirely sure folks are ready for the mega-scaling effort that's coming from Tesla and the attitude Elon's going to have on the day-to-day.

There's no need for Wall Street anymore. Anything Elon wants to do can be announced, instantly oversubscribed, and partially paid for in advance. He's launching Starship into orbit in a month.

No wonder this guy has been so chill and cavalier about say....selling billions in TSLA. It's all coming together. People just don't believe him for some strange reason.
 
Anyone able find the rest of his argumentation on Hydrogen? It would be very interesting to see!!

@Dutchie posted a link to the interview that contains Elon's full answer to the hydrogen question:


Basically, all the standard reasons of why hydrogen is so inefficient. What hydrogen fan boys don't seem to understand is that hydrogen is inefficient and expensive to store, use and make even if you have free electricity. But the reason oil companies are pushing it is because they want to crack it from crude oil so they will still be relevant.
 
@Dutchie posted a link to the interview that contains Elon's full answer to the hydrogen question:


Basically, all the standard reasons of why hydrogen is so inefficient. What hydrogen fan boys don't seem to understand is that hydrogen is inefficient and expensive to store, use and make even if you have free electricity. But the reason oil companies are pushing it is because they want to crack it from crude oil so they will still be relevant.
My suspicion is that the hydrogen hyper is largely funded by big oils, similarly the governments backing it are mostly bought by big oils.
 
@Dutchie posted a link to the interview that contains Elon's full answer to the hydrogen question:


Basically, all the standard reasons of why hydrogen is so inefficient. What hydrogen fan boys don't seem to understand is that hydrogen is inefficient and expensive to store, use and make even if you have free electricity. But the reason oil companies are pushing it is because they want to crack it from crude oil so they will still be relevant.
I think even more important is that they can ship product around in trucks and have the consumer stay used to the weekly pilgrimage to the pump, bringing the cash and dorking around with the fill mechanisms, instead of just plugging in at home and going to bed. Once consumers are no longer used to that, they will never come back. Just imagine, you had to bring your iPhone for a quick 5 minute charge once a week to a t-mobile store. Sounds stupid? Because it is.
 
I shortened your idea into the van-life (for millionaires) world. Imagine all the small luxury comforts you could power with the pack from the Semi!
Yeah, I imagine anything from 30-40' would make sense built on the Semi platform, but shorter than 30' and you're spending a lot of money on the Semi (regardless of variant) for a relatively small RV, in terms of how much volume is left in the vehicle at that point. At that point it'd probably be cheaper to have a custom EV conversion done to a smaller RV, if what you wanted was a smaller EV.

Let me state for the record though I'd love to see Tesla build some Semi-derived blank truck platforms with either easily lengthen frame rails (with the work done by third parties) or to eliminate concerns with lengthening the HV cabling and crash testing etc, just have a few pre-defined size options, and then let the customer buy this "blank" truck and take it to any of the usual custom truck/RV building places to have it done up to spec, whether it be a bucket truck or an RV or tow truck or whatever.

I think Tesla could probably hit a number of truck / cargo van classes with only a few varieties, by competing in smaller classes with larger class vehicles, and leaving custom work (i.e. the various storage, lift gate, bucket, etc stuff) to 3rd parties who know how to do that.

I envision something like this lineup:
  1. Class 1/2/3 - Cybertruck, limited customization via cargo rails in bed
  2. Class 3/4/5/6 - "Utility" truck, more customizable for commercial usage, "van life" RVs, etc. I would probably stylize the front much like the Cybertruck, but not worry about aerodynamics as much and instead have a flat drop off to the bed / rear of the vehicle. If the customer cares, there'll be 3rd party solutions, and otherwise we're just getting in their way. Interior might share some bits with Cybertruck, but would focus even more on ruggedness over luxury.
    • Three cab/body styles, all with same width (so they can share frames and common interior / exterior elements, etc)
      • Regular single row seating cab (predominately for commercial trucks, tow trucks, U-haul conversions, delivery trucks, etc)
      • "Super Duty" / "Crew Cab" style two row seating, but make the 2nd row removable with floor rails that are easily used to install custom fixtures / storage etc (ideally should be using similar/same hardware as the bed of the Cybertruck)
      • Cargo van style which runs the full length, using the same 2nd row and same or similar optional 3rd row seating that are removable with mounting rails running the full length from behind first row (again, same hw as Cybertruck). Interior should be tall enough to walk in, unlike the other cabs.
    • For non-vans, option of bed (with Cybertruck style cargo rails) or bare frame
      • Fifth wheel and goose neck hitches via some optional mount that attaches to the bed via the Cybertruck style mounting rails? This could be an add-on option for Cybertruck too. Might not be possible. If not possible, then design the frame underneath to have the necessary mounting locations and a way to knock out / pass through mounting through the bed? Worst case scenario, you get something welded on by a third party ...
    • 2 vehicle lengths (approximate, wheelbase not determined here, it would be whatever makes sense - and any longer sizes within reason for custom builds can just be extended by 3rd party beyond the rear wheels, since you won't be monkeying with the electrical systems)
      • 20' (roughly standard truck length)
      • 24'
  3. Class 7/8 - Semi, customizable for busses, large RVs, etc
    • Two cab styles
      • Regular (i.e. current Semi)
      • Sleeper (as in the semi trucking variety, basically a Semi with a few extra feet on the back of the cab to sleep in)
    • Fifth wheel or
    • 4 vehicle lengths for non-Sleeper (Sleeper heavily implies a regular semi setup, not a base on which to build a custom vehicle)
      • 20' (technically a bit more, but makes for nicer round numbers here)
      • 24'
      • 32'
      • 40'
Now, we can make some assumptions that reduce combinations. First, the Semi Sleeper model would only be available in 24' as it would only ever be a Semi with extended sleeper space and a fifth wheel and no more. Second, we can decide to offer reduced number of bed / no bed configurations on the by assuming that anyone buying a 24' "Utility" single-row truck is going to get the no bed option and put an entirely custom 3rd party whatever on it. Second, let's say that all dual-row models only come in 24' (if you wanted a smaller 4-door truck, get a Cybertruck). Also, we'll hand wave that whatever 20' and 24' actually end up at, the difference in cabs will make it such that the 20' single row bed is the same part as the 24' dual row bed, so we only need one bed size.

Ignoring the Cybertruck itself, this would give a total of
  • 3 Single-row truck configurations
    • Single / no bed / 20'
    • Single / no bed / 24'
    • Single / bed / 20'
  • 2 Dual-row truck configurations
    • Dual / no bed / 24'
    • Dual / bed / 24'
  • 2 Van configurations
    • Van / 20'
    • Van / 24'
  • 4 Semi configurations
    • Semi / 20' / fifth wheel (if someone really doesn't need the fifth wheel on a 20', they can surely have it removed by a 3rd party)
    • Semi / 24' / no fifth wheel
    • Semi / 32' / no fifth wheel
    • Semi / 40' / no fifth wheel
  • 1 Semi Sleeper configurations
    • Semi Sleeper / 24' / fifth wheel
This gives us 7 variations of the "Utility" truck and 5 variations of the "Semi", which combined with the Cybertruck will let us address effectively the entire range of truck classifications, including allowing for custom trucks and cargo vans. The beds for the "Utility" trucks only come in one size and thus is one "part", and on the production line, the non-bed vehicles just skip installing a bed, so the non-bed and bed lines can be the same.

So we would actually end up with perhaps 3 lines for "Utility", single row, dual row, and van, if we assume we can design them to accommodate the different lengths for each variety in a single line (should be easy, since everything in the front section would be unchanged, and anything in the back section would just need to have two possible processes, and with Tesla's level of per-vehicle build time information logging this shouldn't be hard to implement, relatively speaking). Of course, if demand warrants, it might make sense to build 7 lines, but we can probably get by with 3.

I would probably build 3 line types for Semi too - the regular Semi, Sleeper Semi, and then the one for all the custom length Semi builds that aren't actually semi tractors (as they will be less numerous and probably it makes more sense to make this a more manual / less optimized line than to invest in optimizing it or making more lines). Due to demand, chances are we'd have more than one regular Semi line, and maybe more than one Semi Sleeper line, but it's unlikely we'd see more than one Semi custom line.

Edit: this post got away from me 🤣
 
FT Interviewer: "Will Tesla ever build a car smaller than the Model 3?" | Financial Times LIVE (2022-05-10)

Elon: "There is some probability that Tesla will do a smaller car than the Model 3. I won't say more than that."​


Overall, Master Plan Part Deux remains intact: Semi from Texas in 2023, then Robotaxi from Shanghai in 2024. A smaller "hot hatch" is simply necessary for practical use in the tighter confines of old European cities, and in many places in Asia. Smaller does NOT mean less profitable for Tesla (think VOLUME manufacturing). The combination of a LFP structual battery and single-piece gigacasting will make "Model 2" (the compact car) more economical to build, while Tesla FSD and Infotainment amenities will make it more attractive than the competetion. Its the Road to PROFIT (ie: when they're ready, they will build it).

Paging @jbcarioca @StealthP3D