Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

It’s gonna be a “Buy in May and go away kind of year”

Thinking where/how I can get some funds…

 

[vikings123]

I hate to bring this up but its been a year and BTC has proven to be the complete opposite of an inflation hedge. At this point I am starting to question management’s decision to hold on to it. It has done nothing but hurt shareholders.

Zach is a smart guy. While I agree with your post I also think we should be open to the possibility that Tesla sold some or all of it’s BTC. Reason could be as simple as “We expected BTC to be an inflation hedge…”

 

[elasalle]

BTC was Tesla’s way of celebrating all the money the made from the squeeze after the stock split
- so kind of like Other Peoples Money trade
Could have been put to better use , but when you think outside the box and look for innovative solutions- not all work out

BTC purchase also likely signals Mgmt confidence in FCF and not need to go to markets for debt - speaking of which a lot has been paid off - cheers!!

 

[OrthoSurg]

I thought there was supposed to be some support level theory in technical analysis. But from what I see it is going down and down and down and down. 5 straight weeks of red for S&P500, the same for great companies. ARK dumping TSLA to buy GM, are people out of their minds. Seems like nobody has looked at the Q2 earnings which were the best numbers in history. This dissociation between the stock market and the company health is surprising.

 

[kanweg]

As a counter to this, my dad became a Teslanaire for the first time today,

congrats for him. Now he can find out what the real truth is behind the saying that the first million is hard and the later millions are easy: it is the same million over and over again!

 

[ZachF]

Well technically PE is about earnings, and has nothing to do with actual dividends Paid out. At a PE of 30x, the “earnings yield” is 3.33%.

The problem with Wal Mart is it’s low/no/ negative growth. Last year it made $13b in profit, the year before that it made $14b and a decade ago it made $17b, yet it trades at over 30x earnings, a 50% premium to the market as a whole at ~20. It’s revenue growth is also below inflation.

 

[ZachF]

Tesla is trading at ~29x likely 2023 earnings and ~19x likely 2024 earnings.

 

[SN_8]

I'm not seeing any widespread panic here yet. When we have bottomed out previously, it's generally been in a forum-wide haze of terror.

Are you kidding me?! All I see is panic. I'm panicking. My investment is only up 15x in 3 years and I don't know what to do with myself!

In seriousness, this will pass; numbers don't lie, and the only thing that I'm stressing about is whether to convert shares that I swore I would never touch to leaps.

 

[15Peter20]

12 months ago, to the day, I loaded up at $597. Will today offer the same opportunity?

 

[ZachF]

Euro is getting closer to parity ($1.04)

 

[mongo]

Tesla management has said it, most recently in its response to Karen’s shareholder proposal.

#KarenWasRight

Here's the Tesla response. Please point out, in a different thread, where they say Bitcoin is a hedge.
https://www.sec.gov/divisions/corpfin/cf-noaction/14a-8/2022/sumtristesla012422-14a8-incoming.pdf
They use the change in inflation to show that shareholders cannot react at the speed, nor with all the data that management can:

In seeking to dictate the manner and timing of the liquidation of certain of the Company’s assets, the Proposal implicates both of the central considerations identified in the 1998 Release. Determining where, how and when a company makes investments is fundamental to management’s ability to oversee a company’s financial condition. These decisions involve a wide array of business considerations, both on a micro- and macro-level. To choose just one example: in the supporting statement to the Proposal, the Proponent notes the stable inflation rate. However, since the Company’s receipt of the Proposal, inflation reached 7% in the U.S., the highest level in 39 years. The ability of management to react to changing market conditions, such as inflation, through the diversification of its currency portfolio is fundamental to its ability to run the Company on a day-to-day basis and is not appropriate for direct shareholder oversight. Further, the management of investments is complex and involves the consideration of many factors. Shareholders cannot possibly make an informed judgment about these factors, given that they are not involved in the day-to-day management of the Company. In addition, a requirement to sell investments according to a fixed schedule hampers the flexibility needed by management to align its investment and cash management strategy with then-current market conditions. The pre-determined, granular schedule imposed by the Proposal, including the requirement to liquidate certain assets of the Company within five business days, is an inappropriate limitation on the discretion of the board of directors and management of the Company in managing the financial condition of the Company.

BTC did increase more than inflation at the time of the Tesla filing. Further, until Tuesday, BTC was still 10% or more higher that Tesla's recorded impairment level (ignoring gains already taken).

 

[cliff harris]

The current market price is absolutely insane. I definitely didnt plan to buy more stock, as I am already overly concentrated in TSLA but its incredibly tempting at this price. I reckon once we have seen >1 straight green days for the price, a lot of people in my position will load up in anticipation of better than expected Q2 earnings.
I know Q2 is not predicted to be great, but given the current crazy low valuation, any day when analysts have to look at Tesla's P/E and remind themselves what it is, is bound to trigger an upswing right?

 

[The Accountant]

I wonder what @The Accountant thinks.

Today is May 12 . . . . right?

TSLA Stock Price 2 years ago:

May 12, 2020 - $161.88​

Dec 31, 2020 - $705.67​

The stock more than quadrupled.

Yes, one can argue that things have changed for the worse regarding geopolitical forces, the economy, the markets, monetary policy, etc.
. . . .but things have changed for the better regarding Tesla's future (margins keep growing, backlog keeps growing, profits & cash flow keep growing).

I have said before that nothing stops Tesla . . .and I still believe this.
There is one thing that slows down Tesla . . . .FEAR. It's hard to fight fear as many interests (Hedge Funds, Market Makers, etc). will exploit this fear to make money. Once they are done exploiting this irrational fear . . . .they will make money riding Tesla up.

I am still expecting GAAP EPS at about $12.30 this year and I believe that Tesla deserves a 150 multiple bringing the share price to $1,845.
If fear lingers . . . .then maybe we have to wait for early 2023 to see Tesla reach these price levels.

 

[dl003]

Crypto has always followed the stock market at a higher beta. Who in their right mind thinks it's a hedge for anything?

I am a patient guy. Its been over a year and this move has not paid off for Tesla or us. Do we have to watch it go down in flame? At some point you would think that they had noticed the negative impact it had on the stock price.

 

[traxila]

If RIVN is really going to get a bounce off those horrible earning you would think it would leak into the BEV companies…. But this has nothing to do with fundamentals. This is wholesale liquidation and margin calls. Think we are close to a real capitulation and short term bottom. Then it is up to data and whether or not the FED plans to hike another 500 basis points into 2023. None of which I think is happening. Markets like these make people understand the value of cash sitting in an account getting half a point interest. Those six month emergency funds can go a long way sometimes…

 

[Artful Dodger]

I thought there was supposed to be some support level theory in technical analysis. But from what I see it is going down and down and down and down. 5 straight weeks of red for S&P500, the same for great companies. ARK dumping TSLA to buy GM, are people out of their minds. Seems like nobody has looked at the Q2 earnings which were the best numbers in history. This dissociation between the stock market and the company health is surprising.

Retesting the YTD lows, why do you think they'd stop for less? And since when have hedge funds ever associated a company's health and its stock price? Hedgies make money the old-fashioned way; they steal it from the rubes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is trading at ~29x likely 2023 earnings and ~19x likely 2024 earnings.

Which is exactly why analysts are paid to lie about Tesla's likely future earnings.

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 803230
I am a patient guy. Its been over a year and this move has not paid off for Tesla or us. Do we have to watch it go down in flame? At some point you would think that they had noticed the negative impact it had on the stock price.

See institutional investors are looking for a lower beta as a company matures so they can see it as a less risky investment with good growth. Elon was like..instead of dividends, share buy backs, and using our cash to invest into mining or whatever, let me blow up beta some more by going into crypto. This made it so only risk takers would invest into Tesla while conservative investors stay away.

Share buy back programs protect investors incase of a market crash. And what is wrong with using Tsla as an inflation hedge? Holding btc results in amplifying our crash. When times are good I mean btc may seem like the 2nd coming of jesus. However just like cathie, Tesla didn't take profits so now we have to go through hell as times are bad.

 

[ZachF]

If RIVN is really going to get a bounce off those horrible earning you would think it would leak into the BEV companies…. But this has nothing to do with fundamentals. This is wholesale liquidation and margin calls. Think we are close to a real capitulation and short term bottom. Then it is up to data and whether or not the FED plans to hike another 500 basis points into 2023. None of which I think is happening. Markets like these make people understand the value of cash sitting in an account getting half a point interest. Those six month emergency funds can go a long way sometimes…

Rivian has an enterprise value of practically zero at this point. They have $17b in cash and an $18b market cap. If they go down much further short term they’ll get acquired or liquidated.

 

[hacer]

Sorry I know you're not fear mongering, but that's fear mongering lol. ...

Pro tip: Set your buy order for 421 - could execute before it rebounds above the buy-wall at 420.69