Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

I'm not a Mandarin speaker but I watched on Youtube with Closed Captions turned on. They work and appear to show a detailed English translation. Although I couldn't understand what they were talking about "tea business" at around the 1:50 mark. (so maybe not the best translation).

Thanks - this was helpful.
What I thought was a dock worker in the interview was actually an official from the Customs office explaining what they are doing to help companies with their exports (providing 24 hr call line, etc). I sense that this customs officer works closely with Tesla as he knew off the top of his head that the last ship had departed on the 11th.

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla does not want to bother inspecting ICE cars in PA so they ask new Tesla buyers to get their own new cars inspected.

Yep, been through this. My local guy now does my inspections with no problems it seems.

I went to a Tesla SC on Wed to have little heart to heart and it was so congested that there was barely the possibility of navigating the lot to look for a parking spot. And no spots period so just left.

It seems weird to sell something new that immediately requires inspection but PA likes their fees I guess.

 

[ryphoenix]

I'm not a Mandarin speaker but I watched on Youtube with Closed Captions turned on. They work and appear to show a detailed English translation. Although I couldn't understand what they were talking about "tea business" at around the 1:50 mark. (so maybe not the best translation).

"Tea" and "Tea business" is actually "inspection of the ship". Basically the Chinese officals were notified about the need to inspect the ship and they accommodated asap even at night. That guy's pronunciation is a bit lazy imho - ship sounds a bit like tea. Otherwise the translation is surprisingly good, I didn't catch any other details that were interesting.

 

[wtlloyd]

I wouldn't be surprised if Elon planned the location at spacex. Indonesia is hungry for technological progress. There are other companies that can show their leader a battery factory, but there's only one place on earth they can see this sort of technology and nation building, and that's at SpaceX. It's got to stick in Joko's mind when it comes time to make a decision around who will make best use of Indonesia's natural resources.

Land is a natural resource, too. Spaceport, anyone? The article is mostly FUD rubbish, but an equator adjacent launch/recovery site has advantages.

The Indonesian island that could host Elon Musk's new SpaceX site

A remote island could host Elon Musk's new Space X project - but its residents are not impressed.

www.bbc.com

 

[-=buzz=-]

"Tea" and "Tea business" is actually "inspection of the ship". Basically the Chinese officals were notified about the need to inspect the ship and they accommodated asap even at night. That guy's pronunciation is a bit lazy imho - ship sounds a bit like tea. Otherwise the translation is surprisingly good, I didn't catch any other details that were interesting.

And 'inspection' as in:
Check & rubber stamp documents for loading/departure?

 

[Rarity]

While I understand Far east political heads visiting Tesla factory with an intent to do business, why would they visit SpaceX site? except of course just for site seeing?

Because that's where Elon is. It's also true that Starlink is ideal for an archipelago nation, which in future will be launched with Starship.

And it doesn't hurt that the airport is nearby and that it is on the way from DC (ASEAN summit) to Asia.

Pretty remarkable images though. It's a bit of a rugged place and Elon looks like he just rolled out of bed. As one does when you are meeting a head of state.

 

[dbeiler]

Here in PA new Tesla's are sold uninspected, so new Tesla buyers need to get their cars inspected on their own within two weeks of purchase. Tesla service centers in PA are NOT allowed to inspect new Tesla's because to do so they would need to be registered emission inspection stations (per PA's laws) and this would require Tesla service centers to allow inspecting ANY cars owned by ANYone. This includes ICE cars. Tesla does not want to bother inspecting ICE cars in PA so they ask new Tesla buyers to get their own new cars inspected.

NOW, upon buying my Model Y last December I started the process of calling local garages around me to get the MY inspected. Much so my surprise this was a very difficult process, most service centers around me in PA refused to do anything with Tesla cars.

Eventually I found a privately owned family garage about an hour from me who not only serviced Tesla's, but both the husband and wife owners owned their own Tesla's as well, and they even had a few Chargepoint chargers installed outside too. So I drive up there and much to my surprise this little garage was bustling with EV customers! Tesla's, Polestars, an ID4, a Mach-E, getting inspections, tires, minor service, all kinds of stuff done. This was not an EV only garage but because they were willing to work on EV's they were getting huge amounts of business thrown their way. I chatted with the one owner for a bit, she said they were actively looking for a larger location to move into because business was booming. EV owners were driving hours simply to have this garage service their EV's. It was fun, I got to see a Polestar up close and even sit in it, I chatted with other EV owners, and I'll be going back to this little garage when my Tesla ever needs tires or inspection again.

Just like the auto manufacturing industry, other support businesses who refuse to change with the EV movement will eventually go out of business. Many service garages will die unless they admit reality and adapt to the wave of change. This is already starting to take place, change is happening right now.

Completely off topic but this PA inspection station myth needs to get nipped in the bud. Reposting a previous post here.

Vehicle safety inspection stations in PA are not required to have OBD emission testing capability. There is no legal barrier keeping Tesla service centers from becoming certified and performing safety inspections. Tesla chooses not to. You can get your Tesla inspected at any and all safety inspection stations in PA. Inspection stations cannot refuse to inspect a vehicle unless they have reason to believe the process of inspection would endanger the inspection personnel. If your Tesla inspection gets refused you need to report the inspection station to the appropriate authorities. Google and read "PUB 45" to learn about PA safety inspection regulations.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525903832886149123

 

[dhanson865]

Completely off topic but this PA inspection station myth needs to get nipped in the bud. Reposting a previous post here.

"Inspection stations cannot refuse to inspect a vehicle unless they have reason to believe the process of inspection would endanger the inspection personnel. If your Tesla inspection gets refused you need to report the inspection station to the appropriate authorities. "

Please explain why you think that logic doesn't work in reverse

Inspection stations cannot refuse to inspect a vehicle unless they have reason to believe the process of inspection would endanger the inspection personnel. If your Gas vehicle inspection gets refused you need to report the inspection station to the appropriate authorities.

Thus if a Tesla facility is a testing location they can't refuse testing gas vehicles.

I've been reading Pub 45-Vehicle Equipment and Inspection Regulations and I just don't see the section that has a one way exception for electric only testing stations. It looks like to me if Tesla gets into this they have to inspect everything, Window Tint, suspension, plates, and on and on and on. Not a simple rubber stamp process.

 

[Papafox]

If you follow the excellent daily TSLA trading thread by @Papafox you will see that he includes a chart of Max Pain evolution over time that is compiled by @JimS. Looking at that you can see that the MaxPain value moves through the week and often comes close to converging with the share price . However often it's not the MaxPain value itself but instead the cross-over point between Put and Call walls that the MM are actually targeting. I'm not sure if anyone has done any more detailed statistical analysis but expect that @JimS would have the relevant raw data on hand.

A lot of us trading options also pay very close attention to the Max Pain number, the Option OI chart and how it evolves over time. What I can say from my observations is that by about Thursday it is typically clear what target price the MM's will be aiming at based on the Options OI chart. When IV and trading volume is low I have noted that the MM's usually achieve their target, even if they need to manipulate the closing price to do so. However at times when IV is higher (say >50%) and/or volumes larger (much of the time recently) or there is some other news, then it is much harder for MM's to achieve a closing SP close to their target.

Edit: To look at historical Max Pain over time you can also head to: Swaggy Stocks They include a graph of historical max pain vs share price over time. Although you have to login to see history over 1 month (up to 1 year).

Nice summary. Let me just add that on some of @JimS 's charts where the stock price has run far from max pain I added a red dot which would be the logical market makers target for that Friday with Max Pain unachievable. That red dot likely goes at the point where we see a tall call wall and a desire for option sellers to keep the stock price from closing above that price. I agree that at some point in the week the market makers sometimes shift their target price to something more achievable than max pain.


The Daily Trading Charts thread contains a @JimS 's chart every weekend so that you can study the relationship between stock price and max pain over time. Rather than just comparing price to max pain each Friday, I think it's more helpful to compare price and likely market maker target each Friday, instead. That's where you'll find the strongest correlation.

 

[Gigapress]

I am still waiting for convincing analysis on the hypothesis that Max Pain is correlated with near term stock price movement.

A huge reason to be skeptical of this is that if such a simple indicator had even slightly significant predictive value, any large investment bank or hedge fund could make billions of dollars simply by exploiting this arbitrage opportunity on TSLA stock, yet as far as I’m aware none of them have done so.

All they would need to do is place a series of small options bets over time targeted around Max Pain and let the Law of Large Numbers work its magic.

The empirical observation that simple, easily predictable arbitrage opportunities are extremely rare is the basis for the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It’s not a perfect theory in practice, but the imperfections tend to arise more from human irrationality and dynamic chaos and less from conspiratorial behavior from cartels.

If it can be shown with hard evidence that this Max Pain arbitrage opportunity actually exists, then I propose (literally) that we form a TMC hedge fund to exploit this in exactly the manner described above.

 

[Mengy]

Completely off topic but this PA inspection station myth needs to get nipped in the bud. Reposting a previous post here.

It's not a myth, I called six different service stations who all said they do not work on nor inspect Tesla's. I only found the garage I did because I talked to members of the Lehigh Valley Tesla Club and they recommended the place to me.

I have to wonder if these anti-Tesla garages will change their tune over the next couple of years as Tesla vehicles become super prolific and abundant?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It's not a myth, I called six different service stations who all said they do not work on nor inspect Tesla's. I only found the garage I did because I talked to members of the Lehigh Valley Tesla Club and they recommended the place to me.

I have to wonder if these anti-Tesla garages will change their tune over the next couple of years as Tesla vehicles become super prolific and abundant?

I tried to go back a bit and find the relevant post. But what are they inspecting.

Sorry. Foreigner here. Just curious.

Thanks in advance.

 

[nativewolf]

The exhaust system

 

[dhanson865]

I tried to go back a bit and find the relevant post. But what are they inspecting.

Sorry. Foreigner here. Just curious.

Thanks in advance.

General road worthiness of the vehicle. Does it pass all the laws on what must be in place for safety and is it in a properly working condition. The concept is a station could give you a failure notice with specific repairs that would have to be made and if the car is non standard or old it may just be cheaper to take it off the road and buy something else.

Not really much to examine on a brand new Tesla (license plate and window tint are the obvious ones).

 

[dhanson865]

The exhaust system

Looking at Pub 45-Vehicle Equipment and Inspection Regulations it seems they are more concerned about parts dragging on the road than they are about emissions.

and on and on and on about mirrors and headlights and steering wheels and everything else you'd expect in a working car.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525834875839950849

Contrast the sentiment of this journalist vs western journalists towards Tesla and Elon. Tesla will do well in China.

 

[heltok]

Indonesian President Widodo visits Starbase. Pretty wild snapshots, given the context. Musk may visit Indonesia in November.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525604521988083713

Imo Giga Indonesia makes more sense than Giga India. I have lived in Bali for ~4 years. Seen a few Teslas, they have Tesla taxi in Jakarta, but not in Bali. The country is not very rich, but there are a lot of rich people in it, specially in Surabaya there are many ”crazy rich surabayans”. Sometimes you will see caravans of Ferrarri, McLaren, Lamborghini etc on road trips. When I talk with Indonesians, Tesla seems to be very popular with the young people. My girlfriend’s brother started talking about Tesla spontaneously, he was mightily impressed when I said I owned one.

Indonesia has a young population that is very IT savvy, lot’s of apps for deliveries of everything from medicine to car cleaning that people use daily. They have their own alternatives to Amazon(Tokopedia) and Uber(Gojek) etc. The country has been a bit protectionistic, but recently Jokoko has been proposing an Umnibus law to make lots of changes including foreign ownership.

Imo they should start with expanding sales of Chinese made Model 3/Y and Powerwall(power outages are not rare). Open some stores in Jakarta, Surabaya and Denpasar. Check the market and build a few superchargers in between. Then later they can consider doing a battery gigafactory in Java. The market is probably not large enough to motivate car production for a while, maybe if they can make some smaller production line for multiple models or if they make a smaller cheaper car or a minivan that could sell a lot, but the current models are not optimized for the Indonesian market. But there still would be a decent demand for imported Model Y.

 

[Andy O]

General road worthiness of the vehicle. Does it pass all the laws on what must be in place for safety and is it in a properly working condition. The concept is a station could give you a failure notice with specific repairs that would have to be made and if the car is non standard or old it may just be cheaper to take it off the road and buy something else.

Not really much to examine on a brand new Tesla (license plate and window tint are the obvious ones).

I remember the debate in this province when compulsory vehicle inspections were first proposed. The claim is that by inspecting vehicles, dangerous vehicles can be forced off the road. The proposal was initiated and strongly supported by service garage owners (no suprise there), and it looks good on the surface. It's hard for a politician to argue against forcing dangerous cars off the roads. However the reality is that on a cost analysis basis, the amount of money spent on inspections is not an efficient way to improve safety.

 

[ZsoZso]

I am still waiting for convincing analysis on the hypothesis that Max Pain is correlated with near term stock price movement.

A huge reason to be skeptical of this is that if such a simple indicator had even slightly significant predictive value, any large investment bank or hedge fund could make billions of dollars simply by exploiting this arbitrage opportunity on TSLA stock, yet as far as I’m aware none of them have done so.

All they would need to do is place a series of small options bets over time targeted around Max Pain and let the Law of Large Numbers work its magic.

The empirical observation that simple, easily predictable arbitrage opportunities are extremely rare is the basis for the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It’s not a perfect theory in practice, but the imperfections tend to arise more from human irrationality and dynamic chaos and less from conspiratorial behavior from cartels.

If it can be shown with hard evidence that this Max Pain arbitrage opportunity actually exists, then I propose (literally) that we form a TMC hedge fund to exploit this in exactly the manner described above.

What complicates the situation is that Max Pain data is a cumulative total, but each market maker has their own individual Open Interest graph (which we cannot see, we can only see the aggregate of those), and its their own outstanding contracts that drive their behavior, i.e. provides manipulation incentive. The ideal target price maybe different for different market makers, resulting in a tug-of-war between their efforts.

As for creating a hedge fund to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity via additional option trading, that effort can lead to a self-defeating situation, whereas the opening of new option positions will alter the target point if there is sufficient volume in those transactions. Basically, by trying to exploit the effort of market makers to move the stock price, your own option contracts force a change in equilibrium such that the market makers will necessarily work against your hedge fund, i.e. they also need to annihilate your options along with the rest of the market.

As long as you are a small fry, your best chance to exploit this is to "join" the market makers rather than fight them, i.e. write contracts at the same points where they have the largest peaks in open interest and trust that their manipulation efforts will benefit you too.