Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Setting aside the security issues, I'm not sure that it would be cheaper to launch from Indonesia once all of the costs are factored in. Maybe a launch site in the US virgin islands @ ~10* lat would be more cost effective, though. It certainly wouldn't raise the same security concerns as a launch site located somewhere like Indonesia.

I don’t think SpaceX is building a starship facility in Indonesia, it’s probably more likely that Indonesia is going to be contracting SpaceX for rides.

SpaceX is going to make it much cheaper for many countries to have manned space programs. The buy in has gone way down with Dragon, and will go down further with Starship.

Right now, a bunch of middle income countries could start their own manned space program using SpaceX if they wanted to. I mean, Jared Issacman could afford it on his own dime.

Hell, Starship would probably be cheap enough for Indonesia to afford their own moon base in a ~decade if they wanted to.

 

[30seconds]

Indonesia straddles the equator and is mainly water based. Plus "local" access to reasonably sophisticated manufacturing and raw materials base (including China, Japan and Australia). If you aren't that into democracy then pretty good place to build and launch spaceships from.

The Indonesian island that could host Elon Musk's new SpaceX site

A remote island could host Elon Musk's new Space X project - but its residents are not impressed.

www.bbc.com

 

[wipster]

Elon Musk's Crash Course? Seriously? And advertised during "The Martian"? Next thing you know they're going to blame him for stranding Matt Damon on Mars!

What a load of FUD... courtesy of the NYT of course...

 

[betstarship]

This was surprising:

"At one point in 2020, Apple was in talks to potentially acquire Canoo. That never happened, and sources with knowledge of the matter doubt Apple would want to acquire the struggling company’s technology at this point. Its hardware and software engineers, though, along with developers, could be a different story."

Apple May Acquire Canoo EV Startup

As the EV startup struggles financially, it may spell opportunity in Cupertino. It may make perfect sense for Apple to acquire Canoo.

www.macobserver.com

 

[Gigapress]

Setting aside the security issues, I'm not sure that it would be cheaper to launch from Indonesia once all of the costs are factored in. Maybe a launch site in the US virgin islands @ ~10* lat would be more cost effective, though. It certainly wouldn't raise the same security concerns as a launch site located somewhere like Indonesia.

SpaceX intends to have 1k Starships launching 1k times per year each. Every $1 saved per launch adds up to $1 million annually.

The Virgin Islands have too many disadvantages I think

• Size: probably too small to handle the million annual launches
  • Probably at least 100 launch pads needed if cycle time is ~1 hour
  • Also, tourism is most of their economy, and the noise from 2700 launches each day would be a no-go.
• Not suitable for manufacturing Starships and fuel on site
  • Very little existing industrial base and few natural resources
• The VIs are at 18.3 degrees north. Launching from the Equator gives 85 km/h of delta-V advantage.
• Not a place Elon will be frequently visiting for Tesla business

Musk companies always go hardcore and head directly for the best physically possible solution. SpaceX in particular has been laser-focused on minimizing the delay until the Martian colony becomes self-sustaining, which is directly a function of how much useful payload each Starship can deliver per trip, considering that SpaceX will be severely production constrained by Starship and Super Heavy manufacturing. The rate of delivery and the cost per ton of payload to Mars are a function of the latitude of the launch site. Orbital refueling helps make this less of an issue, but getting to orbit in the first place is the harder part because it requires 27000 km/hr of delta-v but the trip out of Earth’s gravity well requires only an additional 13000 km/hr. SpaceX wants to really optimize because their goal is to ship at least 1 million tons to Mars as soon as possible.

If they want at least 99% of the maximum possible assistance from Earth’s rotation in order to accelerate the timeline for developing a self-sufficient Martian colony, then they need to stay within 8 degrees north or south of the equator. Within that band of the planet, there are unfortunately only a few places with eastward-facing shoreline on a lake or ocean:

1. Brazil (around the Amazon River delta)
2. Galápagos Islands
3. French Guiana
4. Democratic Republic of the Congo
5. Uganda
6. Tanzania
7. Somalia
8. Kenya
9. Maldives
10. Sri Lanka (southern tip)
11. Malaysia
12. Singapore
13. Thailand (southern tip)
14. Indonesia
15. Philippines (southern tip)
16. Papua New Guinea
17. Solomon Islands

Indonesia is by far the strongest candidate for a launch industry of this magnitude. It has:

• A huge amount of suitable, no compromises coastline for launch pads
• 274 million population
• $4T GDP ($15k per capita) from diversified market economy
• 0.72 Human Development Index (high)
• G20 membership
• Abundant natural resources including nickel, copper and natural gas
• A massive partnership with Tesla in the works
• A President who has been seen meeting with Elon Musk at SpaceX facilities multiple times who has publicly stated for years that he’s actively pursuing development of spaceports for SpaceX

Singapore and Malaysia are similarly situated, wealthier and more highly developed, but they have much less population, natural resources, and eastward-facing coastline, plus they’re not directly on the Equator. Singapore and Malaysia almost certainly will play a significant role in the growing space economy, but Indonesia is better positioned to send off gigantic fleets of Starships hauling bulk freight every 26 months when the planets align.

Brazil’s northern coast and French Guiana are potentially solid secondary options for the Western Hemisphere for cargo that’s difficult or expensive to get to Indonesia/Singapore/Malaysia.

If we expand the band a little bit wider, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Trinidad & Tobago become decent 2nd-tier candidates.

Overall, it’s really an obvious choice considering the goals of both Tesla and SpaceX and the limitations on Elon’s time.

Seen at Starbase yesterday:

Ain’t no place like Indonesia to make batteries and launch cargo to deep space!

 

[dhanson865]

I realize I omitted a key detail in my prior response.

There is a Starship that goes to Mars and there are Starships that are tankers (no cargo other than fuel, could be flown with no crew).

For the security nervous crowd, you can launch the fully functional starship that is versital and more desirable from US soil and launch tankers from the Indoesia site.

The tankers would just be doing round trips taking fuel up and coming back empty. With no passengers and no cargo that isn't fuel. The security risk is considerably less. You could run that for some time and gain confidence in the situation before ever launching humans or other valuable cargo from that site.

Eventually you want that site for earth to earth flights from other sites but it could easily be restricted to a fuel depot only in the early days and still save a lot of delta V on the heaviest part of the lifting for the Mars colony.

 

[betstarship]

I realize I omitted a key detail in my prior response.

There is a Starship that goes to Mars and there are Starships that are tankers (no cargo other than fuel, could be flown with no crew).

For the security nervous crowd, you can launch the fully functional starship that is versital and more desirable from US soil and launch tankers from the Indoesia site.

The tankers would just be doing round trips taking fuel up and coming back empty. With no passengers and no cargo that isn't fuel. The security risk is considerably less. You could run that for some time and gain confidence in the situation before ever launching humans or other valuable cargo from that site.

Eventually you want that site for earth to earth flights from other sites but it could easily be restricted to a fuel depot only in the early days and still save a lot of delta V on the heaviest part of the lifting for the Mars colony.

What if there's multiple starships that deploy a small army of humanoid robots and boring machines on Mars in a few years time to make way for a colony there without human intervention?

 

[Gigapress]

I realize I omitted a key detail in my prior response.

There is a Starship that goes to Mars and there are Starships that are tankers (no cargo other than fuel, could be flown with no crew).

For the security nervous crowd, you can launch the fully functional starship that is versital and more desirable from US soil and launch tankers from the Indoesia site.

The tankers would just be doing round trips taking fuel up and coming back empty. With no passengers and no cargo that isn't fuel. The security risk is considerably less. You could run that for some time and gain confidence in the situation before ever launching humans or other valuable cargo from that site.

Eventually you want that site for earth to earth flights from other sites but it could easily be restricted to a fuel depot only in the early days and still save a lot of delta V on the heaviest part of the lifting for the Mars colony.

Great point. With 5 refueling tankers for every 1 Starship, Indonesia could handle the bulk of the volume on fuel delivery alone. Labor is also relatively cheap compared to USA.

 

[Surfer of Life]

What if there's multiple starships that deploy a small army of humanoid robots and boring machines on Mars in a few years time to make way for a colony there without human intervention?

Not to be negative, but I think colonizing Mars will proceed at the same relative pace as FSD. I hope but doubt it will be ready to populate in Elon’s lifetime.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Very informative Twitter thread about Tesla capital efficiency and operating leverage

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525835818337808384

 

[SmokyPeat]

SpaceX intends to have 1k Starships launching 1k times per year each. Every $1 saved per launch adds up to $1 million annually.

The Virgin Islands have too many disadvantages I think

• Size: probably too small to handle the million annual launches
  • Probably at least 100 launch pads needed if cycle time is ~1 hour
  • Also, tourism is most of their economy, and the noise from 2700 launches each day would be a no-go.
• Not suitable for manufacturing Starships and fuel on site
  • Very little existing industrial base and few natural resources
• The VIs are at 18.3 degrees north. Launching from the Equator gives 85 km/h of delta-V advantage.
• Not a place Elon will be frequently visiting for Tesla business

Musk companies always go hardcore and head directly for the best physically possible solution. SpaceX in particular has been laser-focused on minimizing the delay until the Martian colony becomes self-sustaining, which is directly a function of how much useful payload each Starship can deliver per trip, considering that SpaceX will be severely production constrained by Starship and Super Heavy manufacturing. The rate of delivery and the cost per ton of payload to Mars are a function of the latitude of the launch site. Orbital refueling helps make this less of an issue, but getting to orbit in the first place is the harder part because it requires 27000 km/hr of delta-v but the trip out of Earth’s gravity well requires only an additional 13000 km/hr. SpaceX wants to really optimize because their goal is to ship at least 1 million tons to Mars as soon as possible.

If they want at least 99% of the maximum possible assistance from Earth’s rotation in order to accelerate the timeline for developing a self-sufficient Martian colony, then they need to stay within 8 degrees north or south of the equator. Within that band of the planet, there are unfortunately only a few places with eastward-facing shoreline on a lake or ocean:

1. Brazil (around the Amazon River delta)
2. Galápagos Islands
3. French Guiana
4. Democratic Republic of the Congo
5. Uganda
6. Tanzania
7. Somalia
8. Kenya
9. Maldives
10. Sri Lanka (southern tip)
11. Malaysia
12. Singapore
13. Thailand (southern tip)
14. Indonesia
15. Philippines (southern tip)
16. Papua New Guinea
17. Solomon Islands

Indonesia is by far the strongest candidate for a launch industry of this magnitude. It has:

• A huge amount of suitable, no compromises coastline for launch pads
• 274 million population
• $4T GDP ($15k per capita) from diversified market economy
• 0.72 Human Development Index (high)
• G20 membership
• Abundant natural resources including nickel, copper and natural gas
• A massive partnership with Tesla in the works
• A President who has been seen meeting with Elon Musk at SpaceX facilities multiple times who has publicly stated for years that he’s actively pursuing development of spaceports for SpaceX

Singapore and Malaysia are similarly situated, wealthier and more highly developed, but they have much less population, natural resources, and eastward-facing coastline, plus they’re not directly on the Equator. Singapore and Malaysia almost certainly will play a significant role in the growing space economy, but Indonesia is better positioned to send off gigantic fleets of Starships hauling bulk freight every 26 months when the planets align.

Brazil’s northern coast and French Guiana are potentially solid secondary options for the Western Hemisphere for cargo that’s difficult or expensive to get to Indonesia/Singapore/Malaysia.

If we expand the band a little bit wider, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Trinidad & Tobago become decent 2nd-tier candidates.

Overall, it’s really an obvious choice considering the goals of both Tesla and SpaceX and the limitations on Elon’s time.

Seen at Starbase yesterday:
View attachment 804863

Ain’t no place like Indonesia to make batteries and launch cargo to deep space!

Yeah, my mistake, I meant the US Virgin Islands are about 10* lat south of Cape Canaveral. The British Virgin Islands are roughly 18.3* N. The US Virgin Islands are a bit further south at about 17.7* N. An equatorial launch due East would add enough delta v for about a 2% increase in payload vs. the Cape. I haven't attempted to crunch the numbers, but I'd be surprised if the transport, construction, and other miscellaneous costs associated with launching from Indonesia would be offset by that ~2% increase in payload. Nevermind the political/security wildcard. I think they had enough fun with near equatorial launches on Kwajalein.

 

[dhanson865]

Yeah, my mistake, I meant the US Virgin Islands are about 10* lat south of Cape Canaveral. The British Virgin Islands are roughly 18.3* S. The US Virgin Islands are a bit further south at about 17.7* S. An equatorial launch due East would add enough delta v for about a 2% increase in payload vs. the Cape. I haven't attempted to crunch the numbers, but I'd be surprised if the transport, construction, and other miscellaneous costs associated with launching from Indonesia would be offset by that ~2% increase in payload. Nevermind the political/security wildcard. I think they had enough fun with near equatorial launches on Kwajalein.

We are talking tens of thousands of launches per decade, ramping to hundreds of thousands of launches per decade. Every 1% fuel saved is going to be a huge amount of money saved.

We are also talking about the largest rockets ever launched from earth. Like the one launching next year that is the largest ever is only the medium or small size rocket for Mars colonization. There will be insane amounts of fuel spent sending stuff up.

If you aren't thinking that big you aren't in the right ballpark.

 

[SmokyPeat]

We are talking tens of thousands of launches per decade, ramping to hundreds of thousands of launches per decade. Every 1% fuel saved is going to be a huge amount of money saved.

We are also talking about the largest rockets ever launched from earth. Like the one launching next year that is the largest ever is only the medium or small size rocket for Mars colonization. There will be insane amounts of fuel spent sending stuff up.

If you aren't thinking that big you aren't in the right ballpark.

I'm not saying equatorial Starship launches will never happen. I'm just being realistic in my assessment that they aren't likely to happen from Indonesia anytime soon. Indonesian nickel supply for Tesla is another matter entirely.

 

[redan]

Two sources of good news. First in China (where we now have a cargo count and destination) and then the US (where there is no competition):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526052930482503680

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526060896627200000

 

[Gigapress]

We are talking tens of thousands of launches per decade, ramping to hundreds of thousands of launches per decade. Every 1% fuel saved is going to be a huge amount of money saved.

We are also talking about the largest rockets ever launched from earth. Like the one launching next year that is the largest ever is only the medium or small size rocket for Mars colonization. There will be insane amounts of fuel spent sending stuff up.

If you aren't thinking that big you aren't in the right ballpark.

Right. Even more important than just money is payload mass per launch. Delta-V requirements are exponentially related to payload mass.

Thanks to Earth’s strong gravity and thick atmosphere, a small difference in Delta-V required has a relatively big impact.

Starship in reusable mode will only be able to deliver ~2% of its starting mass as payload to deep space. The number of Starships in operation will be a limiting factor for years. Every last drop of usefulness must be and will be squeezed out.

Elon took time yesterday to give the President of Indonesia a special 1-hour private tour of Starbase to discuss the rocket production line (not Tesla) and the got invited to visit Indonesia afterward on Twitter. The previous visit that President Widodo met with Elon was at Giga Austin to discuss nickel and batteries. This looks a lot like SpaceX is planning to develop a significant presence in Indonesia along with Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525683819478626304

Google Translate: “After a discussion in his office, @ElonMusk invited me to visit the location of the Space X rocket production facility in Boca Chica, United States. For an hour we took a close look at the Space X rocket factory. I have also invited Elon Musk to come to Indonesia.”

 

[CLK350]

Not sure how new this is - but the Tesla Semi page is now live and Tesla is taking firm orders - first come first serve I guess Tesla Semi

 

[dbeiler]

"Inspection stations cannot refuse to inspect a vehicle unless they have reason to believe the process of inspection would endanger the inspection personnel. If your Tesla inspection gets refused you need to report the inspection station to the appropriate authorities. "

Please explain why you think that logic doesn't work in reverse

Inspection stations cannot refuse to inspect a vehicle unless they have reason to believe the process of inspection would endanger the inspection personnel. If your Gas vehicle inspection gets refused you need to report the inspection station to the appropriate authorities.

Thus if a Tesla facility is a testing location they can't refuse testing gas vehicles.

I've been reading Pub 45-Vehicle Equipment and Inspection Regulations and I just don't see the section that has a one way exception for electric only testing stations. It looks like to me if Tesla gets into this they have to inspect everything, Window Tint, suspension, plates, and on and on and on. Not a simple rubber stamp process.

For anybody not familiar with PA vehicle inspections; the safety inspection and OBD emissions inspections are two completely different inspections. The safety inspection is to verify your vehicle is not a hazard to you or the motorists around you: tires, brakes, ball joints, etc. ICE and EVs use the exact same inspection procedures and tools. The emissions inspection is to verify your vehicle is not producing emissions in excess of the allowable standards. The emissions inspection requires a specific set of tools and licensing of inspectors. The vehicle registration card specifies whether an emissions insp is required. All PA diesel vehicles and EVs are exempt from emissions inspections and do not need to display an emissions sticker.
Yes, SAFETY inspection stations must inspect ALL vehicles presented. I was not contesting that. Every day Ford dealerships inspect Chevy vehicles and vice versa. Not a big deal when the inspection process requires the exact same tools, licensing, and procedures. The exhaust inspection portion of the safety inspection is STRICTLY a visual inspection (to verify no carbon monoxide leaks can make their way into the passenger compartment and noise output doesn't exceed safe levels, etc).

It's not a myth, I called six different service stations who all said they do not work on nor inspect Tesla's. I only found the garage I did because I talked to members of the Lehigh Valley Tesla Club and they recommended the place to me.

I have to wonder if these anti-Tesla garages will change their tune over the next couple of years as Tesla vehicles become super prolific and abundant.

You must politely remind them that refusing a vehicle inspection based on brand is illegal and that they will be reported to the appropriate authorities if they continue to do so. They deserve to have their inspection station certificate revoked if they refuse to meet the requirements.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/colorado-river-crisis/

Today's reminder what we're all doing here. I think a lot of people who have done the quintessential American summer vacation has seen a lot of these sights. Las Vegas, Hoover Dam, Glen Canyon Dam, Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and the national parks like Zion, Arches, etc. The Colorado River looks pretty cool and we probably thought it was going to provide water for the arid desert of the American Southwest forever. Turns out that's not the case due to accelerating climate change. I wonder what the plan is for the 13 million humans who inhabit the Los Angeles metropolitan area when it returns to the desert from which it came.

 

[SmokyPeat]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/colorado-river-crisis/

Today's reminder what we're all doing here. I think a lot of people who have done the quintessential American summer vacation has seen a lot of these sights. Las Vegas, Hoover Dam, Glen Canyon Dam, Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and the national parks like Zion, Arches, etc. The Colorado River looks pretty cool and we probably thought it was going to provide water for the arid desert of the American Southwest forever. Turns out that's not the case due to accelerating climate change. I wonder what the plan is for the 13 million humans who inhabit the Los Angeles metropolitan area when it returns to the desert from which it came.

Solar powered desalination plants?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Solar powered desalination plants?

California Coastal Commission rejects plan for Poseidon desalination plant

After hours of intense debate Thursday, coastal regulators have rejected Poseidon Water's proposal to build a desalination plant in Huntington Beach.

www.latimes.com

Interestingly, a desalination project that was backed by California Governor Gavin Newsom was rejected just recently. It doesn't seem like the people of the LA basin actually want water or anything. We'll see how that goes for them.