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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The one thing about a forced acquisition is that Twitter has to still want the merger. Unlikely the board will want to go through with that… I think they’d actually prefer to be done with this whole thing. Possible though, but doubtful IMO. Now there is bound to be a class action suit from some shareholders for damages. Whether that holds up or not is a big question.
Audio ONLY for all in podcast WILL BE up tonight
Elon mentioned on podcast that he is expecting FSD beta to extend to 1M users by year end...so I guess he is also guiding 1M total FSD buyers by year end.
This is also the event where he claimed more than 20% of twitter users are bots so it'll be interesting.
Elon mentioned on podcast that he is expecting FSD beta to extend to 1M users by year end...so I guess he is also guiding 1M total FSD buyers by year end.
This is also the event where he claimed more than 20% of twitter users are bots so it'll be interesting.
Oh an another thing about a forced acquisition… we’re talking mid to late 23 before it could complete. The market will rebound far before that and Tesla will have some substantial earnings. It would be an overhang, but the stock will produce in the meantime.
Well but there are a few key differences, namely that Apples growth in the 2010's wasn't anything like Tesla's during the 2010's and Apple even had down years in terms of net income and years of flat revenue growth. Especially on the earnings side/net income side.
Apple net income in the 2010's
2010 14 billion
2011 25 billion
2012 41 billion
2013 37 billion
2014 39 billion
2015 53 billion
2016 45 billion
2017 48 billion
2018 59 billion
2019 55 billion
If you take out 2010, then they only grew net income by a little over 100% over the course of 9 years. That's not terrible at all, but also not what Tesla's growth is, or will continue to be.
Then if you correlate the revenue growth in years, there were some years that while revenue grew materially, net income was down. If you line up the P/E ratio of Apple along the net income, it's P/E was at it's lowest levels when net income dropped from the previous year. So yeah it kinda makes sense to see a low(er) P/E during those times. Granted it was still too low.
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No that is not reasonable.
However, you could sell your house, keep about $150,000 for living expenses, put the rest of everything into TSLA, live in your Model Y for 6-12 months, and then buy back your house (or a better house) sometime late in 2023!
Not advice of course.
Maybe someone can, but I bet it won't be your wife.
Wish he had done his homework before jumping in.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Considering TSLA is now down 7-8X the macros, there's really no point in even entertaining that hypothetical
Obviously when selling pressure/negative sentiment flips, it will rally hard. But there's no way around how it's traded for the past two weeks, severely underperforming day after day and to me, it's pretty clear that the stock is very vulnerable to a quick 20-25% drop if the macro's take another leg lower.
Wall St a crystal clear roadmap to how to trade TSLA for the next two weeks at least, if not the next month and a half. There's no real catalyst for the stock until news comes out that Shanghai is back to full production. Until then, it's open season for dropping the stock on any given day......or if the past two weeks are any indication......every day.
I would like to think that Thursday was in fact the bottom, but if you're on margin, you definitely cannot be confident in the stock given the Friday and today.
After hanging around here for a few years and doing my best to absorb the data, much of it conflicting while still being related, I see the current situation as a perfect storm for us HODLers.
Here's how it looks from this perch. TSLA volume since S&P inclusion has been dormant. It seems to me this is primarily due to HODLers (retail and institutional) severely limiting the number of real shares available to actually trade. This set of circumstances opens the door wide to synthetic share trading being able to create significant "synthetic" volatility in the stock price, as we have seen repeatedly over the past few months.
Add to this the fact that the FUD machine is still well oiled and running at a high rate of production, despite what appears to be a sea change, where many mainstream talking heads appear to be gravitating toward a neutral Tesla bias, if not up front speaking on Tesla's behalf and in defense of the company against FUD their news feeds are regurgitating at them.
Plus, and this is important, the annual general meeting coming up that is poised to have a landslide vote in favor of making available more shares (1T?) and a clear statement that a split is expected afterwards.
There are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting, while more and more are learning about Tesla and Elon and finding they have been lied to. This will have people who for many reasons (falling SP, share too costly, still uncertain, etc.) are poised, waiting for their catalyst to enter the market and buy TSLA.
There will not be one catalyst, there could easily be several that converge upon a moment in the near future where they will rush in to buy because they have either:
- Come to understand the fundamentals;
- See a price that is in their comfort zone (20:1 stock dividend);
- Seen the inevitable bottle-rocket fuse being lit as the SP begins its ascent from the launch pad;
- and/or any of a number of other triggers (production numbers, new models coming online ahead of schedule, 4680 ramp, etc.)
The company is still rushing toward maintaining their 50% / year goal till the end of the decade, at least. (probably more like 80% per year in actuality)
The brouhaha over the Twitter is inconsequential, really. Has Elon ever done anything like that which didn't turn into yet another golden goose for CHOAM, er, I mean, the Musk family of companies?
Other than those who may have over-leveraged themselves, there is little to justify selling anytime soon. Unless you just don't like to see stock gains.
Don't worry, be happy.
The moment we are in is lot like having that spicy Mexican food plate for supper. This too shall pass. (Elon's recent emoji supports this.)
HODL
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Well - in all fairness, the "current" method of how Twitter reports bots (as verified by them tell Elon he violated and NDA) of sampling ONLY 100 accounts . . .
From a stats standpoint, that's a stupid STUPID low number that you could not properly accurately calculate the % of bots. The standard error bars would be . . . absurd.
CLK350
Member
On YouTube now
0:00 Bestie Guestie Elon Musk joins the besties via Zoom at the All-In Summit!
0:43 Benchmarking Twitter's bot problem, thoughts on slights from the Biden Administration
13:26 Breaking down Tesla's 6+ businesses, comparing them to a traditional car company
21:42 Concerns around the Twitter deal, crypto payments on Twitter
30:19 Building vs. acquiring, early Tesla stories
39:52 SpaceX's grand vision and business model, nuclear fusion vs. solar
56:37 Moving from CA to TX, fixing California, macroeconomic takes
1:10:20 American exceptionalism, a new immigration strategy
bballshinobi
Member
Most of us here, if not all, believe the trajectory of the company will overcome the economic headwinds. Fundamentally, yes, it's easier to buy now because the company has proven itself and we know it won't go bankrupt. However, in 2020 and 2021 you knew the PE multiple had to expand due to the Fed policy. Tesla's earnings can double but if the market adjusts from 30 PE to 15 the stock still won't go anywhere. We
The Fed hasn't even started to reduce its balance sheet. What we are seeing right now is just the market discounting the future risks of QT. Just look at what happened to the S&P when the Fed started to reduce its balance sheet in 2018:
I am not saying the market will crash further. I am still all in TSLA. I am just saying we won't know how much PE compression the market will settle on. We won't know how much liquidity will exit the market. Is TSLA cheap right now at around 2022 50-60 PE and 2023 30-40 PE? Yes, hell yes. I am cautiously adding while expecting to see lower lows.
My point is during 2019-2021 you just had to answer two simple questions "Does EV make sense?" and "Will Tesla dominate the EV market?" and you can confidently buy anywhere between $40-$500. In 2022 and forward, a new buyer of TSLA has a lot of difficult questions unrelated to Tesla the company: "How will QT affect valuations?", "How much will future growth be discounted?", and "how much liquidity will be removed from the market if the Fed balance sheet is decreased?"
thesmokingman
Active Member
Love that bit, "I'll be the first to tweet out about aliens..."
Yeah I know what happened... the market continued up when it started, had a bad (not as bad as this) crash, and actually increased by about ~17% about 18 months later from the beginning of the rolloff.
Today's balance sheet rolloff is going to double the raw number of last roll offs... but the balance sheet is double the size and it can be stopped or slowed if the Fed feels it goes too far or if inflation is slowing and liquidity isn't there. We've actually seen the market can absorb it as evidenced by 18 and 19 even with the crash.
What it comes down to though, is at some point, the market will decide enough is enough with or without the Fed balance sheet. We have already hit drops that rival pretty much anything of the last 30 years except 2000 and 2008. If the market thinks things are that bad now, we will see more pain. If the market doesn't think things are that bad, we've already overcorrected.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
That bit about him attending on Episode 69 is very Elon as well.
Your own chart shows that the market rebounded while the Fed's continued to reduce their balance sheet. In fact the market was already back up to it's high's before the Fed's even reached the end of their reduction of their balance sheet.
Also, no the market can't just determine that Tesla's P/E will go from 30 to 15 in a vaccum.........if Tesla's continues posting 50% revenue growth/80-100% earnings growth. I think people way overgeneralize in that if the markets down this much or is in a bear market, no stock can have a high P/E ratio. But that's simply not true, as I pointed out in the post about Apple, they had years of flat earnings growth and a few negative earnings growth. Their lowest P/E ratio years corresponded to the years of flat earnings or declining earnings.
Nvidia's P/E during the 2010's was around 15-20 in it's lowest P/E ratio years of the 2010's. Wanna guess Nvidia's earnings for those years? Flat......In fact flat earnings year after year after year. So the low P/E was in direct relation to that. Once their earnings started to show growth again, their P/E jumped back up into the 30's, then the 40's, then the 50's. So there's direct relation to the P/E given to a company and it's actual earnings growth, Irregardless of whether the market is in a bear market or not
You are glossing over the fact that Apple’s PE ratio in 2010/2011 was already pricing it like it was either never going to grow, or that it was going to go out of business. It doubled its net income between 2011 & 2015, yet its PE ratio continually touched 10x - it was an insane disconnect from reality.
Apples annual net income increased from $14 Billion in 2010 to $102 Billion today, an annual decade long CAGR of almost 20%. Yet it didn’t trade over a PE ratio of 20x consistently until 2020.
At least TSLA , even at its current price level, is currently priced for a large amount of earnings growth, albeit much less growth than we here expect.
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