Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Favguy]

I believe that directly supporting a Chinese company is worse than indirectly supporting one. And to continue that logic, then everything we as Americans winds up supporting the GOP as well. So someone selling their Tesla doesn't make sense.

Maybe my take differs as I'm British. As an international observer, I can envision the possibility of the US becoming as great, or even a greater threat to the world as you probably deem the CCP to be. Dependent on how your political situation evolves over time, but the last few years of US politics have shown we can't take anything for granted. Anyway, I'll shut up now, as don't want to upset the mods!

 

[fiveten]

So what do you guys think today, is the market going to chose violence again?

I'm thinking we will close in the 750's

 

[Paul_SF]

I have only this to say:

BUY THE DIP!!!!!!

 

[Favguy]

I’m a total heretic… I eat both Chick-fil-a and Ben and Jerry’s!

I don't even know what sort of food Chick-fil-a serve, have never even seen one, but you're making me hungry for one!

 

[UncaNed]

They use profits to buy shares on the open market.

Share buy backs are a way to possibly return money to investors by decreasing the total amount of shares in existence.

Without burning up Tesla's free cash in the process, as the post I replied to implied??

 

[traxila]

Without burning up Tesla's free cash in the process, as the post I replied to implied??

They want Tesla to pledge future profits to buy backs, hence leaving the war chest untouched.

 

[elasalle]

Converted another 100 shares to 3 Jun 24 850 Leaps (~ 220 each) ... at $702 price
each time seems like it will be a good day .... but end the day in the red ... got a few more tranches I can manage

 

[mickificki]

Converted another 100 shares to 3 Jun 24 850 Leaps (~ 220 each) ... at $702 price
each time seems like it will be a good day .... but end the day in the red ... got a few more tranches I can manage

are these conversions happening with the expectation of paying cap gains taxes? or is this in an ira?

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK Supercharger congestion has started, but the i3 owner is paying £0.61 / $0.76 per kWh (or lower if subscribing monthly)

1 out of 8 (soon 16) stalls in use. Anyone want to plug this into s spreadsheet model? Could Supercharger income become important?

 

[elasalle]

are these conversions happening with the expectation of paying cap gains taxes? or is this in an ira?

ira,
in non-IRA, if you have set up as LIFO (last In First Out) .. you might be able to sell shares purchased above 800 for a loss and convert to calls.

 

[UncaNed]

They want Tesla to pledge future profits to buy backs, hence leaving the war chest untouched.

So the only difference between Tesla actually buying back the shares vs. this suggested share buy back would be that they want Tesla to buy back the shares by kicking the payment can down the road -as if that's any better??!??

(Edit - thank you @traxila , @elasalle , @ZachF , and others for the much appreciated, patient replies.)

 

[elasalle]

So the only difference between Tesla actually buying back the shares vs. this suggested share buy back would be that they want Tesla to buy back the shares by kicking the payment can down the road -as if that's any better??!??

Past few quarters, Tesla has been paying back it's debt and is now with almost zero debt. So they could take similar amounts and do buybacks each quarter with FCF.

However, Q2 really needs help due to macros - so they could do the Q2 buyback with actual cash and not FCF. No new GF's etc coming online - so cash is just sitting there idle. Also maybe just $2-3B worth of shares, which can then be used to increase the pool for stock based compensation as employee head count is growing.

Tesla has survived with a single factory, 1 model at low production and almost no cash many times.

 

[dl003]

Coincidentally, 620 is also on a support trendline that has extended from the Day 0 post-split peak.

We can also go all the way down to 500 which is the weekly EMA 200 which couldn't be broken even by the mighty COVID crash.

I know many members are not as enthusiastic about technicals but they have worked for me and enabled me to buy more shares that I wouldn't have otherwise been able to afford.
View attachment 806090

To expand a little bit:

In late 2018, the Fed came to the rescue as SPY reached the -20% mark, officially entering bear market status.
We are at that point again but instead of an accommodating Fed, we have a complete opposite. It is only natural to expect SPY to extend further to the downside. Many are expecting SPY 370-350 which should pull TSLA down to the 620 level. I don't know what it would take to see 500 and it's probably too late, but please manage your margin.

 

[advocate8]

So what do you guys think today, is the market going to choose violence again?

crap, I was just about to say, support in the gray area around 700 seems to be holding up. But....

 

[traxila]

So the only difference between Tesla actually buying back the shares vs. this suggested share buy back would be that they want Tesla to buy back the shares by kicking the payment can down the road -as if that's any better??!??

(Edit - thank you for the much appreciated, patient replies.)

They want Tesla to buy back shares as the profits roll in. They can’t buy back shares on credit. I mean I guess they could use a margin account but that sounds like a disastrously bad idea.

 

[Usain]

Looks like my numerology-based trading is looking good today:

Limit order at $694.20.

Filled at $694.20

Day's Range

694.11 - 715.73

 

[mongo]

So the only difference between Tesla actually buying back the shares vs. this suggested share buy back would be that they want Tesla to buy back the shares by kicking the payment can down the road -as if that's any better??!??

(Edit - thank you for the much appreciated, patient replies.)

To be clear, I'm only discussing, not advocating for the buy back position, i.e. I have no 'want'.

Using future free cash flow to purchsse TSLA would not reduce the cash on hand from present levels. They could even only allocate a portion of FCF to purchases so their cash would still grow. If they hold the shares instead of removing them from circulation they can always sell them for cash later.
If the most recent cap raise ends up being made superfluous by company performance, then a share reducing buyback reverses that action (potentially at a profit).

 

[GOVA]

So what's up with the accelerated delivery of MY Tesla offers for waiting buyers?

279 miles of range vs 330 LR
0-60 in 5.0 seconds vs 4.7 LR

Is this the new form factor with front and rear gigacastings and new batteries?
Why would anybody go for lower range and acceleration?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Looks like my numerology-based trading is looking good today:

Limit order at $694.20.

Filled at $694.20

Day's Range

694.11 - 715.73

Please next time set it like me at $700. I do not like when round numbers are breached.

 

[elasalle]

Existing home sales fell in April to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic

Rising mortgage rates and continued tight supply caused home sales to drop to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

cooling in progress ...