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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Re: MCU3 AMD chips and whether they're custom or not - it's not entirely clear (I haven't found anything definitive) whether the YE180FC3T4MFG model chip is a semi-custom design or not. It looks like most likely it's an existing Ryzen Embedded series design, just with the integrated graphics disabled (likely from die-harvesting chips that had problems with integrated graphics portion of the chip, but the rest works - and since they're going to use a dGPU anyways that's acceptable to get a cheaper chip), so likely is NOT a semi-custom part in terms of Tesla actually customizing the IP blocks and such (i.e. versus a PS4/5, Xbox One / Series, or Steam Deck chip). Similarly the Radeon GPU part may not be something you can buy in a GPU for your PC, but is probably at most just different configuration of clock speeds and enabled shaders to harvest an existing design, rather than being custom in any true way. AMD does provide custom services, but it seems unlikely that Tesla is using those services, as that is unnecessary. Tesla's custom chips they designed themselves (for the HW3 and later NN compute boards) are being fabricated by Samsung at Samsung's facilities, rather than by AMD (who use GlobalFoundries and mostly TSMC generally).

Re: Stock buy backs - I like the idea of setting aside $X billion and using it as a buy back, but you could even go one further probably by setting up orders of "Use this $X Billion to buy back as much stock as you can, but if it goes over $Y/share, start selling at up to Z shares per day", and keep those shares in the external trading account for the time being as a way to influence the stock price. That probably should be illegal manipulation some how, except any OTHER entity could perform these trades, so ... maybe it's legal to structure it this way?
The part numbers for the APU and GPU do not correlate with any consumer product. :rolleyes:
 
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Reactions: CLK350
Question: is Prufrock capable of digging VERTICAL shafts? Seems like these would be necessary add ons to any tunnel project
As far as I know it can’t, although maybe some of the technology is transferable to a vertical shaft drilling TBM. I think Prufrock is designed for maximum ramp tilt of 18% grade. Part of the point is making “porpoising” cheap to eliminate a bunch of time and expense for digging pits with excavators and lowering the machine into a hole by crane.

1653019122866.jpeg


This design makes it possible to afforably build many more stations per neighborhood than a subway can achieve, which is critical for fully unlocking the value of the point-to-point personalized robotaxi service and get people to leave their ICE cars at home. It also allows for scaling tunnel construction much faster by allowing many Prufrocks to work simultaneously without adding extra cost.

The tagline is “Designed to construct mega-infrastructure projects in a matter of weeks instead of years”.

A Robotaxi network is a lot more useful when it is large enough to serve at least the downtown core of a city. If they have 100 Prufrocks they could descend into cities one by one, first across America and the going international, installing systems on the order of 10-100 miles and Tesla can simultaneously bring in the latest tranche of newly manufactured vehicles.
 
I think Prufrock is designed for maximum ramp tilt of 18% grade.

View attachment 806474
I know the source of the image but do you have a source for "18% grade"?

18% grade is about 10 degrees slope which is practically flat.

18 degree slope is about 32% grade which is about twice the angle but still not very steep.

30 degree slope is about 57% grade

I couldn't find an angle quoted for Prufrock's porpoise maneuver or any sort of max angle. But eyballing that drawing and some random real world pictures it seems steeper than 18% grade.

 
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I have followed Elon and his companies very closely for 10+ years. I would have never imagined that it would come to this. He is (was?) the richest man in the world and is publicly asking an accuser to name an identifying feature of his junk! Step back and let that sink in for a minute. I believe this version of the simulation has officially jumped the shark. :)
 
There have been times that I actually sold my entire TSLA position because of a Musk tweet, not because the tweet itself was that bad, but because I was afraid that the next tweet would cripple the company and/or the SP. I no longer have so deep a concern. Elon has now so thoroughly breached norms of CEO decorum that there's no shock value left; most of his confrontational tweets are no longer even newsworthy. Everything that we've been posting about today may impact the SP for a day or two, but the half life of the newsworthiness of any of his tweets is getting really short.

So too my concern (and that of many others here) that Elon is getting too distracted from running TSLA by all his other pursuits. While this too is a valid concern, I have gradually become more comfortable with the reality that Elon is much more than just a CEO of a big company, and that the pros of that for TSLA outweigh the cons of that.

What Elon is doing is getting more and more interesting, but who Elon is, what drives this man, is becoming increasingly less interesting, because it's pretty much all on the table now. Anyone paying the slightest attention now knows Elon pretty thoroughly. And also knows that Tesla will continue to grow more than 50% per year.

The risk factors to TSLA from Elon personally are not gone, but they are receding.
 
Tesla Optimizing Margins?
I am in the same boat. My Model X LR delivery date has moved from May to July and now to Dec 2022 - Apr 2023.
Consider this:

My order:
Order date: October 15, 2021
Delivery Date: Dec 2022 - Apr 2023
Price as configured: $114,490

If ordered today:
Order Date: May 19, 2022
Delivery Date: Jan - Apr 2023
Price as configured: $131,490

I ordered 7 months ago. Oddly, someone that orders today gets practically the same delivery date.
But if ordered today, the pricing is $17,000 higher.
I wonder if Tesla is moving the higher priced orders ahead of the older orders to optimize margins to offset Austin/Berlin Ramps and Shanghai lockdown impact. I see on the Model X tracker there is someone who ordered a Model X LR in January 2022 and received their car in April and another person ordered in March 2022 and received the car this month (both in California).

I am a bit bummed about my order's delay but intrigued that there may be a pleasant margin surprise in Q2, Q3 and Q4.
I said this when I was waiting for my model Y recently:

Tesla should release the algorithm for the EDD, just like Elon wants to do with Twitter. We are being secretly manipulated. :p
 
So too my concern (and that of many others here) that Elon is getting too distracted from running TSLA by all his other pursuits. While this too is a valid concern, I have gradually become more comfortable with the reality that Elon is much more than just a CEO of a big company, and that the pros of that for TSLA outweigh the cons of that.

Elon debunked this trope with a meme 8 hrs ago:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "To be clear, I’m spending <5% (but actually) of my time on the Twitter acquisition. It ain’t rocket science! Yesterday was Giga Texas, today is Starbase. Tesla is on my mind 24/7. So may seem like below, but not true. https://t.co/CXfWiLD2f8" / Twitter

Mod: deleted banned sexist meme. --ggr

Twitter isn't a disctraction for Elon; it's a time-saver for direct contact with his followers. Not filtered by the media or pols; they hate being cut out of the loup. Now he wants to fix it so it works better, and fits in Elon's signature 4-D plan. It's no more complicated than that. Let him fix it, I say. But Elon's main efforts remain focused on Tesla and SpaceX.

This is an age-old conundrum. Is it faster for the Lumberjack to stop to sharpen his axe, or to just keep chopping with a dull axe? Let the man sharpen his axe; he's got LOTS of wood that needs chopping. Whole solar systems full of them, and we're not out of the woods yet. ;)

Cheers!
 
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As far as I know it can’t, although maybe some of the technology is transferable to a vertical shaft drilling TBM. I think Prufrock is designed for maximum ramp tilt of 18% grade. Part of the point is making “porpoising” cheap to eliminate a bunch of time and expense for digging pits with excavators and lowering the machine into a hole by crane.

View attachment 806474

This design makes it possible to afforably build many more stations per neighborhood than a subway can achieve, which is critical for fully unlocking the value of the point-to-point personalized robotaxi service and get people to leave their ICE cars at home. It also allows for scaling tunnel construction much faster by allowing many Prufrocks to work simultaneously without adding extra cost.

The tagline is “Designed to construct mega-infrastructure projects in a matter of weeks instead of years”.

A Robotaxi network is a lot more useful when it is large enough to serve at least the downtown core of a city. If they have 100 Prufrocks they could descend into cities one by one, first across America and the going international, installing systems on the order of 10-100 miles and Tesla can simultaneously bring in the latest tranche of newly manufactured vehicles.

Good info, tho I would imagine they must be working on a different system for vertical shafts: these would be necessary for the next development phase, Elon had announced, the hyperloop. That one would prefer long straight horizontal paths, so need regular service shafts or exits.
 
It’s sad that we are being pulled down to discussing the person Elon is rather than his ideas or what he is doing. When I listened to him on Allin podcast I couldn’t help but to be impressed by how he could talk about so many different topics, be very clear and concise and get to the fundamental point of each topic. The other 4 giants in the podcasts felt like average minds in comparison to Elon. Then I read Bill Gates AMA on reddit and I am not impressed at all, his dismissal of crypto felt like the average online poster back in 2013 with comments we no longer see as they have been refuted so many times… He refused to answer if he was short Tesla. Though he did own some random poster who hadn’t done his homework on the AZ vaccine but other than that he was, as Elon said, ”underwhelming”.

Media is trying to make everyone discuss who Elon is a person. People get upset of the things that he says, not because they are wrong, but because we are not allowed to say them or because behing who is he is he doesn’t have the right to talk about them. Not because of them being factually incorrect. If they were people would pick them apart logically, not throw poop at him.

I am reminded of this quote:
1653027798112.jpeg
 
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The part numbers for the APU and GPU do not correlate with any consumer product. :rolleyes:
Any given die design can be easily binned into many products, not just consumer or professional products but enterprise and embedded options too, many of which the latter two will have at best obscure part numbers and sometimes even be customer-specific, even if there's no physical customization involved, just a balance of features enabled and specified clock speeds and so forth. Frequently these variations are taking advantage of dies that are less than 100% viable but have all the most important parts working (i.e., it might have 8 CPU cores and 24 GPU cores, but only have 6 and 18 enabled, of which the 2 and 6 that were disabled are chosen during testing of the chip so exclude portions that were imperfect or have inadequate performance/power curves).

We can be fairly certain that the MCU3 chips are essentially off the shelf parts for AMD, perhaps binned in a Tesla unique way, but Tesla isn't going to waste the millions of dollars it takes to get custom silicon made when they can get binned parts to do the same job.
 
Why don’t we wait for more facts to emerge about the allegations before we spend 10 pages speculating about this and getting mad at each other?

There's no point in discussing it and certainly not here. It's hearsay and unlikely to ever be more than that. The person talking is simply reporting what her friend allegedly told her and her friend is not talking because she accepted the money rather than continue to make allegations that could never be proven one way or the other. There is literally nothing to talk about because it's not even her word against Elon (even that would still leave us with nothing to talk about). We don't even know who allegedly originally made the allegation or who is bringing it into the public's eye at this time. There is literally no way to dissect what, if anything, allegedly happened 6 years ago!

We can tell who is trying to disrupt the forum and throw shade on Tesla by those who continue to try to drag Mr. Musk through the mud with six year old hearsay that could never be proven or disproven. Think how you would feel if someone made such claims against you and you had no way to disprove them because there were no microphones or cameras to record exactly what was really said. I'm not saying Musk did nothing wrong, I'm saying we don't know and we never will.
 
I’ll say it again:

Business Insider, of Linette Lopez fame. Zero credibility.

They burned their credibility bridge with me many years ago.

I judge a person by their actions. And Elon’s actions have far more sway with me than a tabloid masquerading as a business publication that already has a long history of smearing Elon with things we factually know to be untrue.