Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Can you explain why Tesla would sue her?

No reason to sue her, just check out the responses to her tweet... that's what we need more of!

 

[Beltsbear]

With the Model Y they used 2-piece cast rear subframe until they got the single piece casting figured out. I assume they did something similar for the Cybertruck using the 6000 ton presses.

Something like the cybertruck prototypes frames would simply be handmade and CNC metal parts welded together manually. Not actually that hard to do but labor intensive and slow. They would not cast pieces that would not be used in production because the casting molds are very expensive. Cheaper to make by hand.

 

[15Peter20]

I do not mean to be critical nor do not acknowledge Elon Musk's contribution. I am impressed with Tesla and want it to succeed and have invested in the company. But I am an environmentalist. I belief we need to switch away from a fossil fuel economy asap as global warming is rapidly advancing. Thus politicizing Tesla is ruining the brand unnecessarily and the mission of improving our environment. I realize stock losses are only at time of sale.

Production is the constraint, not demand. If demand becomes the constraint in the near future you may be correct but I’m not holding my breath.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yet you spend a lot of time complaining when anyone takes issue with something Elon has said or done. It's a discussion board, there is no requirement to avoid all criticism of Elon or Tesla. Elon is not always right and since he's the CEO of Tesla it's perfectly rational to discuss his actions.

Oh, contraire. Not complaining at all, rather pointing out the stupidity of repeated angst over that which one does not control.

I’ve not said it’s not rational to discuss his actions and how that may be relevant to Tesla. That’s not actually what’s happening here most of the time. What is happening is irrational behavior; jumping to conclusions, making up stuff and getting all in a dither, losing perspective, doing that which one despises in others, angst, anger, upset, embarrassment often by the same people over and over and over, and yet they’re unwilling to simply remove themselves and thus entirely avoid such drama and negativity.

Take yourself as an example. How many times now have you been negatively affected by what you deem inappropriate tweets by him? I count at least 5 times you’ve been angry, upset, or think he’s costing you money. And yet you’ve failed to remove yourself (permanently, because I know you said you sold some at one point because of a tweet) from the situation. Instead, you want to embrace a made up entitlement giving you and others the right to judge him as the imperfect human he is, all the while he enriches your life. That’s cute.

 

[MABMAB]

IDRA 9T press: Has anyone done an analysis comparing such news to when they likely got pressed into production? Still a ways out I bet.

 

[Queeg500]

Yet you spend a lot of time complaining when anyone takes issue with something Elon has said or done. It's a discussion board, there is no requirement to avoid all criticism of Elon or Tesla. Elon is not always right and since he's the CEO of Tesla it's perfectly rational to discuss his actions.

This is the Stoic approach. It is very helpful, indeed powerful, for anyone who wishes to use it.

 

[wipster]

Elon's potential selection of lawyers reminds me of this scene:

 

[bigsmooth125]

The debate is NEVER advanced. Don’t you get that? We’ve been debating Elon’s tweets and behaviors for YEARS. It’s the same tired argument, every single time. We all know (or should know) that he’s going to do Elon and nothing any of us say or do will change it. Either come to terms with it or get out.

The way to get *advanced* is to not complain about everything that upsets you, but rather ACT constructively about events and consciously put yourself into a life where you aren’t bothered by every little thing that goes on around you.

When I don’t like something going on in my life, I change it. I don’t complain about it. I remove it, or myself, or make a new choice, or change myself and how I view it, etc…

Despite not agreeing with those who’ve stomped off in dramatic fashion and exited their positions because of the recent tweets and settlement, they at least get props for removing themselves from the situation that makes them unhappy and thus ‘advancing’ themselves toward inner peace and happiness.

I also put forth, yet again, that the real reason people are so upset is because MONEY. They should reflect on how they view money, the importance they place on it and consider recalibrating that so that it doesn’t hold so much sway over their mental and emotional state.

In terms of the lawyer stuff, Elon was clear what his issue was - corruption in the ranks. So, he’s looking for an incorruptible team of lawyers to take the bad actors behind the woodshed, as it were, and learn them a thing or two about picking on him and his companies.

As is the policy at his companies, you don’t have to be a university/college graduate, you just need to be an exceptional human being.

Do you understand now?

It's condescending posts like this that make this forum toxic at times. What about the oft-repeated positive sentiments or the irrational exuberance ? Those should remain but the negative ones shouldn't? What I care about is hearing a reasoned thought, regardless of whether it's positive or negative or whether I agree with it. In fact, I actually want to hear the ones not consistent with my current views because I might learn something new. Pointing out the obvious, there's a real tension on this forum between two camps: those who want to hear only positive comments and those who want back and forth discussion. As is usually the case, though, the camp that wins out is the one that is most vociferous driving away the others and you're left with an echo chamber.

 

[jerry33]

I do not mean to be critical nor do not acknowledge Elon Musk's contribution. I am impressed with Tesla and want it to succeed and have invested in the company. But I am an environmentalist. I belief we need to switch away from a fossil fuel economy asap as global warming is rapidly advancing. Thus politicizing Tesla is ruining the brand unnecessarily and the mission of improving our environment. I realize stock losses are only at time of sale.

There is no way disrupting entrenched industries is not going to be political. The entrenched industries will do everything in their power to squash the disrupter. This is totally out of Elon’s control—unless you think he should just roll over and give up.

 

[Accident]

Looks like Idra factory in Italy. Here’s a video of a smaller gigapress in “IDRA Italia” that looks like the same place.

Be on the lookout for some extra large crates arriving in Austin in the next few months.

Yes, the picture was shared by IDRA on their Linkedin profile. It's inside their factory.

 

[wtlloyd]

Doug can perhaps move the needle of the everyman psyche

Ummm...pretty relatable, then he said he would choose a Hummer if her got an EV, and everything he said before became irrelevant.

 

[Dutchie]

My family used to play "spot the Tesla".
Then we moved to "spot the non-white Tesla".
We are now considering "spot the new car that ISN'T a Tesla"

Most plates show us the 6 month period that the car was FIRST registered (and don't change over time, except for vanity plates, rare). eg

2020 = 20 and 70 plates
2021 = 21 and 71 plates
2022 = 22 and 72 plates

It's not unusual for me to be driving in/against a near convoy of Teslas (well, 2-4 - at least for a little while). Within about half a mile of a town road we saw 8 different Teslas out of less than 100 cars (guess). Considering the hundreds of car brands/models available and average age of the fleet, that's quite a change and I think other drivers notice because they look unlike other cars on a UK road. That in itself should ensure that Tesla is in a shortlist when considering a car rather than being dismissed as too unusual. "If they can do it - why not me, what am I missing"

The FUD/genuine concern over EV chargers is also leading people to think a Tesla is a much safer choice for their or their company's needs. I think some of the anti-EV FUD has backfired into being pro-Tesla due to both Superchargers and overall better execution of the EV & its ecosystem.

Yeah, the time that I waved at fellow Tesla drivers is long gone. End of an era.

 

[Sofie]

I hope Dave Lee is okay. He hasn’t posted anything in a few days and removed the last podcast.

 

[Skryll]

Yeah, the time that I waved at fellow Tesla drivers is long gone. End of an era.

I moved on to waving at MachE and VW ID4 drivers. They need to feel the support and lack of adversity from Tesla drivers the most.

 

[Atomsla]

I moved on to waving at MachE and VW ID4 drivers. They need to feel the support and lack of adversity from Tesla drivers the most.

I wave at other passengers when I'm in an electric bus. I try to take the frontmost seat, to avoid having to walk to the front and wave at people from really up close. Its uncomfortable, but it has to be done!

 

[mongo]

I hope Dave Lee is okay. He hasn’t posted anything in a few days and removed the last podcast.

He was on TMC just after midnight today (eastern).

 

[Queeg500]

It's condescending posts like this that make this forum toxic at times. What about the oft-repeated positive sentiments or the irrational exuberance ? Those should remain but the negative ones shouldn't? What I care about is hearing a reasoned thought, regardless of whether it's positive or negative or whether I agree with it. In fact, I actually want to hear the ones not consistent with my current views because I might learn something new. Pointing out the obvious, there's a real tension on this forum between two camps: those who want to hear only positive comments and those who want back and forth discussion. As is usually the case, though, the camp that wins out is the one that is most vociferous driving away the others and you're left with an echo chamber.

There is positive vs negative. And rational vs irrational.
It‘s the back and forth discussion of the irrationally negative, that goes nowhere and achieves nothing, that is a waste of everybody’s time. It is usually sparked off by a troll/care bear, but eagerly amplified by anyone who thinks they are learning by joining in the discussion.

 

[avoigt]

Watched an interview with @avoigt

Near the end he said that he thinks the government will bail out VW and keep them alive. Imo this scenario where carmakers are losing money but are being propped up by government doesn’t really make sense. Let’s just assume that it happens, how would it look like?

Year is 2030. Tesla are making 20M vehicles/year. VW is losing money but get money from the German government to keep them alive as a zombie company. Ok, let’s pretend this has happened. Let’s compare a customer, he considers if he should buy a VW Golf or a Tesla Model Golf/2.

The Tesla is $25k incl autopilot with $100/month extra for FSD and Tesla insurance. How much would he be willing to pay for the inferior VW Golf with less range, worse acceleration, worse autopilot, worse infotainment, worse supercharger network, dieselgate etc to choose it over the Tesla? Let’s say $20k. (Imo this is being generous)

Tesla are being manufactured super efficiently with single piece casting, using cheaper 4680 batteries, vertical integration, HW5 development shared by 20M vehicles etc costing the company $20k to produce and sold for a 25% profit before software revenue.

VW can make the same car for $25k as their scale is lower, they have to pay mobileye for active safety, they use more metal with no gigacasting, their batteries are more expensive from Northvolt and it takes more manhours on the production line. On top of that they have to spend another $5k for ads, dealerships etc. So the car will cost $30k for VW and sell it for $20k. So the German government will pay $10k/car that VW produces to keep the company alive? VW makes 5M cars/year, so $50B/year in subsidies to keep the company afloat? And this is without making any profits, just to keep the employees employed.

Where are my assumptions wrong or not plausible? Does it seem reasonable that Germany would pay VW $50B/year forever to make inferior cars at an ever growing loss?

And all the restructuring that keeps happening will that really help the organization to stay agile? Will it help them recruiting talent? No, it will just make them fall behind even more.

So how does the scenario where the Government keeps a Zombie car-company alive actually make any sense?

To some extent, the German government and the EU are already bailing out the VW Group every day and every year. There are a lot of subsidies, e.g. Kurarbeitergeld and many others flowing, and the state of Lower Saxony, which owns a Tesla state, also supports them. Bonds are bought from the EU to keep the refinancing of VW, which now has a debt of 200 billion, going. Without all these measures, VW would already be bankrupt. If the situation worsens, they will step up efforts, as VW poses a systemic risk to Germany.

VW will be a different company in 2030, but the German government and the EU will keep the money flowing.

 

[JRP3]

Take yourself as an example. How many times now have you been negatively affected by what you deem inappropriate tweets by him? I count at least 5 times you’ve been angry, upset, or think he’s costing you money. And yet you’ve failed to remove yourself (permanently, because I know you said you sold some at one point because of a tweet) from the situation. Instead, you want to embrace a made up entitlement giving you and others the right to judge him as the imperfect human he is, all the while he enriches your life. That’s cute.

Tesla as a company is more than just Elon. It's actually possible to be invested in the company while at the same time being unhappy with occasional behavior of the CEO. I've sold shares to reduce my exposure to the company at various times for various reasons, some directly related to Elon and some not. To me that's a rational investment strategy, it doesn't have to be all or nothing as you seem to imply. It's not a religion for me. You don't seem to care what happens with your investment, great, but most people invest in a company to make money.

 

[Phrugal Phan]

Teslas here in Northeast Pennsylvania are a common sight now even though there is no Tesla service center anywhere near here. When I got my X six years ago I only knew of 1 other Tesla in my county and it was extremely rare to see any Tesla around here, and they were usually tourists from NY or Jesey. Now I see them every day when I'm out and about. It isn't like Cali since this is not urban, but more Appalachia, but it's still great to see. I think I mentioned a couple weeks ago that when I was in Mannheim Germany, the birthplace of Mercedes, visiting my daughter she mentioned that over the past couple months she has been seeing more and more Teslas, especially Ys.

I was in the Poconos last weekend and saw a few Teslas. I stopped at the nearby outlet mall supercharger station and all 8 were occupied (I got a spot that just opened as I arrived). I even saw a Model 3 parked at the administrative offices at the Pocono Racetrack. Here in Northern Virginia they're getting to be common. On my 20 mile commute to work I am now counting 20 or more passing me every time I drive in.