Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gtrplyr1]

Not really.

We’re in a market wide sell off, steeper/faster sell off than ever before. But say things just flatline from here for the macro market….. that’s not going to stop Tesla from posting rapid earnings growth, quarter after quarter for the next two years.

So it still creates a dynamic where the trading action will be very one sided unless MM’s get TSLA at least back above 1,000….if not 1250 by the end of the year. The P/E compression from Tesla’s earnings growth waits for no one

The big question is if the macro market stabilizes , if so, I totally agree with you and that is exactly the scenario I'm hoping for. Tesla's demand will still be there, even with higher rates and especially if energy prices stay where they are now. Many quality companies are going to do just fine in the long term but what we wake up to tomorrow morning is anyone's guess.

Good luck to the longs .....

 

[insaneoctane]

Even with the Shanghai shutdown priced in, the FUDsters are going to layer the FUD thick this Q2. It's an extremely rare opportunity for them and I have 99% confidence there will be an all out assault for Q2. Should not impact HODL strategy,but I am not sure how SP plays out short term.

 

[Cobbler]

Even with the Shanghai shutdown priced in, the FUDsters are going to layer the FUD thick this Q2. It's an extremely rare opportunity for them and I have 99% confidence there will be an all out assault for Q2. Should not impact HODL strategy,but I am not sure how SP plays out short term.

My bet is on the opposite:

When those Q2 financial numbers will appear (end of July?), they will be accompanied by the fact that Shangai is back to full speed; GF Texas & Berlin ramping up with 2 shifts. Sprinkle it with some news à la "Production line for CT/Semi almost finished" and we'll smash right through the FUD.

This will be one of the many catalysts investors will see to prepare for 2023: the market will be flooded with Tesla's, new product announcements, hard- & software breakthroughs and we'll see legacy car brands being restructured/bailed out as they die/struggle to survive. Excluding macro's: the bad stuff is already widely known/priced in.

Tesla will be the biggest company in market cap in 2023

 

[JupiterMan]

Google maps have lots of mapping cars with cameras gathering data.

Whilst not impossible it will require simulation software to convert these google map images into anything a NN can learn from. Even then, these mapping images are static, in 10 meter steps and will not pick up different times of day, shadows, weather.... in addition to moving objects and weird corner cases.

Still gonna need a fleet for that IMHO.

 

[jeewee3000]

Even with the Shanghai shutdown priced in, the FUDsters are going to layer the FUD thick this Q2. It's an extremely rare opportunity for them and I have 99% confidence there will be an all out assault for Q2. Should not impact HODL strategy,but I am not sure how SP plays out short term.

Personally I believe the Q2 P&D numbers will indeed provide opportunities for the shorts to spin the (lower) production into a "Tesla has stopped growing" fairy tale.

On the other hand I am very optimistic regarding the Q2 earnings report, since it will IMO show very decent margins/profit/FCF given the held back production in the quarter. If Tesla provides us with solid updates on the Q2 call regarding current production levesl of Shanghai, Berlin and Austin (and they surprise to the upside), I think this will at least put a solid floor under the SP. More likely we should regain some ground.

IMO this compares to Q2 2020: Fremont was in lockdown from March 23rd until somewhere in Q2. Q2 P&D report resulted in an SP rally. Q2 ER slingshotted TSLA to the moon (with the help of later quarters which proved the numbers were not a fluke).

The set-up this time feels very similar. Q2 financials could show Wall Street that Tesla executes well even in an unstable macro environment. Add a stronger Q3 and Q4 (should be given Berlin and Austin) and we can pop the champagne by year end.

 

[cliff harris]

Whilst not impossible it will require simulation software to convert these google map images into anything a NN can learn from. Even then, these mapping images are static, in 10 meter steps and will not pick up different times of day, shadows, weather.... in addition to moving objects and weird corner cases.

Still gonna need a fleet for that IMHO.

Not only does google have zero night-time data, they also are PAYING for those cars to be built, and driven. Tesla get given $10,000 in profit every time someone buys one of their mapping cars, and an extra $10,000 if they choose FSD option. The economics of Tesla's data collection for autonomy vs every other company on the planet is hilarious.

I'm sure senior technical people at other autonomy companies must KNOW how doomed their approach is, but want to cash in the high salaries and stock options to buy a house quickly before Tesla's approach totally embarrasses them and the efforts have to be terminated.

Of ALL Tesla's business areas and projects, its FSD where, IMHO they have the clearest, most dramatic lead over everyone else. But 95% of stock analysts are not neural network and machine learning experts, so they cannot see what is sat there right in front of them.

 

[UkNorthampton]

FWIW you don't need a RV, the FAQ says you can use it anywhere (but not WHILE moving)

We just ordered one for our house because it allegedly ships immediately to all areas, and we've been waiting for the home unit we ordered Feb 2021 to ship and it still has not.

Service on the RV unit is more expensive (as is the HW)- and there's no guarantee of service level (basically they're deprioritized behind normal users) but it's still likely gonna be better than the best we can get today.

For those outside North America especially, but still relevant to those who travel USA, Canada, Mexico,...

FAQs say it's usable within your continent. Restricted to 2 months at a time in a different country, have to buy new or move registered address. As you can travel through quite a few European countries in a day and much RV/camping usage might be outside own country - I think it's a reasonable solution for digital nomads & the like. Frees up more locations and accommodation. Most importantly, it's a pain to research good internet connectivity for those who can work remotely, so might as well travel. Accommodation is often the highest cost, so opening up more choices will save the subscription fee easily. Also, an ability to pause subscription. This could work for a lot of people who spend winters in sunnier climes & the knowledge that whatever location you chose will be fine is fantastic.

Two months might be a bit short for some slo-mads though (slow nomads). However many of these are likely to be retired-early Teslanaires - allegedly.

Tesla related... hopefully can be powered by 12 volt forever on an EV (especially a Tesla, some EVs aren't great with 12v stop/start/battery drain).

More awareness of Elon Musk's businesses. Emphasises simplicity, elegance of solutions which reinforces Tesla cachet indirectly.

 

[heltok]

Not sure about the source, but anyway:

EXCLUSIVE: Bill Gates Poured Millions into Dark Money Fund Attacking Elon Musk

Research exclusively shared with Breitbart News identifies hundreds of millions of dollars flowing from Bill Gates' foundation to ten of the 26 organizations that signed an open letter last month urging Twitter advertisers to boycott the company if Elon Musk follows through on his promise to...

www.breitbart.com

 

[Chenkers]

Either some people think they know something or they are taking a massive bet on us getting a big rise this week?

Options open interest for this Friday's $800 strike calls was even with other strikes at around 4,500 yesterday. Now they've shot up to over 23,000! After last Friday's Bear raid with Puts, what's next for this Friday? Cancelled Twitter deal, Investment Grade, Split details or just someone prepared to lose $1M??

 

[Beltsbear]

Not sure about the source, but anyway:

EXCLUSIVE: Bill Gates Poured Millions into Dark Money Fund Attacking Elon Musk

Research exclusively shared with Breitbart News identifies hundreds of millions of dollars flowing from Bill Gates' foundation to ten of the 26 organizations that signed an open letter last month urging Twitter advertisers to boycott the company if Elon Musk follows through on his promise to...

www.breitbart.com

Most of the orgs Breitbart is calling anti-musk are not. They include Black Lives Matter type orgs , pro choice and groups promoting net neutrality.

 

[ZeApelido]

Wow. I had a friend who worked at Tesla (battery pack reliability) and like many left for easier pastures at Google.

Now he as switched jobs.... back to Tesla. Who leaves and goes back to Tesla?!

 

[Nocturnal]

My bet is on the opposite:

When those Q2 financial numbers will appear (end of July?), they will be accompanied by the fact that Shangai is back to full speed; GF Texas & Berlin ramping up with 2 shifts. Sprinkle it with some news à la "Production line for CT/Semi almost finished" and we'll smash right through the FUD.

This will be one of the many catalysts investors will see to prepare for 2023: the market will be flooded with Tesla's, new product announcements, hard- & software breakthroughs and we'll see legacy car brands being restructured/bailed out as they die/struggle to survive. Excluding macro's: the bad stuff is already widely known/priced in.

Tesla will be the biggest company in market cap in 2023

It does seem like the lower guidance is what is really blowing up stock prices after earnings lately. Let's hope that remains the case. Fingers crossed.

 

[nativewolf]

Most of the orgs Breitbart is calling anti-musk are not. They include Black Lives Matter type orgs , pro choice and groups promoting net neutrality.

Anyone linking to Breibart for anything is ...well lets just say not worthy of attention. Hateful group of posers is Breibart

 

[Mengy]

I really don't know how options would really work with TSLA trading at 600/share or even lower in the 500's for an extended period of time(more than 2-3 months). Sure for the next month and a half it's fear mongering. But when Q2's earnings come and pass, all eyes point to Q3.

And if Shanghai starts pumping out 80-90k/month starting in July combined with Berlin/Austin hitting the part of their ramp where they materially add to Tesla's deliveries and thus earnings, plus the upcoming split.........I just don't see how any fund would dare try and hold a significance number of puts lower than 600 or sell calls into that set up. The momentum and trades will all be completely lopsided to the upside and adding buying pressure....and nonstop pressure at that. For at least the next 8-10 quarters straight

So I'll kinda repeat what I've been saying for months, I really feel like this is the end of TSLA being the king of options trading activity. The gulf between bulls and bears will shrink as Tesla's earnings continue to grow in scale, it's P/E continuing to compress, as TSLA gains investment grade ratings from S&P/Moodys. The implied volatility will be sucked dry because the P/E compression has taken away all of the downside risk.

And that's when I think the way TSLA trades will be eerily similar to Apple's where the stock action was very consistent. Wouldn't vary that much during the quarter and would increase in value as\ steady % quarter after quarter.

Wow Starfox, I think you and I are beginning to feel the same about how TSLA will trade over the next year or two!

 

[Chartered321]

Me thinks that Tesla will get out of these inflation / recession / war times better than ever relatively speaking.
So hold on tight dear TMC community. Floor must be somewhere around

 

[Christine69420]

I used to drive a Mercedes so I read an article about their new Mythos line. There I found this nugget:

Ferrari's cars are built to be embraced with lust and envy. Just like Ferrari as a company. If Ferrari gets an operating margin of less than 20, it is a sensation - it was 25 last year. For other car factories, 15 is a Porsche goal you may be able to reach for, but which seems impossible to reach.
Ferrari is traded on the stock exchange for 39 times expected earnings over the next 12 months (according to data from Sentio). LVMH - those with Louis Vuitton and Moët and Dior and Bulgari and 70 other luxury brands - are traded with the 26-fold. Mercedes-Benz with lean 7.

Tesla had in Q1 an operating margin of 19.2% so it's not impossible for other factories to reach the impossible 15 of Porsche.

I'm not sure how to find how TSLA is trading compared to expected earnings but with analysts expecting TSLA earnings growth to be moderate I would think our number is higher than the Ferrari 39.

 

[mongo]

Me thinks that Tesla will get out of these inflation / recession / war times better than ever relatively speaking.
So hold on tight dear TMC community. Floor must be somewhere around

Pessimistic Douglas Adams:
A quote from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
Optomistic Douglas Adams:

There is an art, it says, or rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss. … Clearly, it is this second part, the missing, which presents the difficulties.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

FUD or not?

Over 10 Percent of Tesla Model S EVs Fail Germany’s Strict Inspection After 3 Years

It's actual hard data on Tesla's quality issues as seen in the wild.

www.thedrive.com

Based on the many, many issues we've read about on these forums, I hate to say that it's not FUD . . . Tesla MUST step up their product pre-delivery testing, production quality, warranty, and customer service, in the US and globally.

 

[Nocturnal]

Based on the many, many issues we've read about on these forums, I hate to say that it's not FUD . . . Tesla MUST step up their product pre-delivery testing, production quality, warranty, and customer service, in the US and globally.

Something can be true and still be FUD.

I'm not sure how to find how TSLA is trading compared to expected earnings but with analysts expecting TSLA earnings growth to be moderate I would think our number is higher than the Ferrari 39.

I'd sure hope so. Ferrari lives in a static market at best.

 

[thx1139]

Anyone linking to Breibart for anything is ...well lets just say not worthy of attention. Hateful group of posers is Breibart

Breitbart for anything is as trustworthy as Business Insider for anything Tesla or Musk related.