Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

What madness is this? Google and Meta recover from the Snap news after the morning lows, but Tesla sells off?

These down 50 days are getting too common. If this trend continues we should be at negative 200 sometime next month.

People who use snap also drive cars and Tesla makes cars so has tesla needs to come down hand-in-hand. Snap makes no product and has zero to negative revenue and Teslas making increasing profits year over year on durable goods, so Tesla needs to march in lockstep with snap

 

[growler23]

Here’s the link.

Tesla Requests Rule Change in Texas to Bring Households with Solar & Batteries into the State's Energy Market

Tesla has filed a rule change for grid operators in Texas to bring households with solar panels and batteries into the state's energy market. Broad public participation should help the power operator stabilize the state's power grid.

www.tesmanian.com

Yes, regular readers may recall the Tesla does have grid-connected megapacks here in Texas already working away. The regulatory change they are seeking would be to allow solar (+battery) households to bid their way into the energy market (presumably with Autobidder?), adding even more to grid supply and stabilization.
It would open the market to MANY Texans, and this features no big government projects/expenditures - surely our pennywise grid manager ERCOT will go for it?
Will be interesting to see. 'Nother stock bump potential if ERCOT goes Tesla's way on this: sell more batteries, sell more panels, be in more markets, get more marketing presence ... without spending on marketing.

Anyway, here's an existing megapack reference for background (not all that related to the regulatory change but heartening to read)

81 Tesla Megapacks Are Helping Texas Keep The Grid Stabilized

Tesla is helping Texas with 81 Megapacks to avoid a repeat of last year's horrific winter disaster that left many without power in the cold.

cleantechnica.com

 

[insaneoctane]

We are almost at 50% of the ATH. Snap should NOT have this kind of effect on the overall market but unfortunately it's fear and panic time.

It seems like every rally is sold off and people are not buying the dips ... I, for one, do not wish for any more "buying opportunities" .... Not sure what provides any momentum for this stock as numbers are a ways off and even those Q2 number might not be great. Elon ending the Twitter deal would help but I'm not holding my breath for even that to provide a bounce.

Strap in .... as this could get a lot uglier.

I'm strongly considering selling shares at 620 (IRA no tax consequence) ..... I can buy back later and if I miss some upside I don't really care. At this point ... I'm more interested in stemming the bleeding.

Everyone must make their own decisions, but isn't this exactly what they want? Your shares?

 

[Drax7]

I'll say it: TWTR overhang.

Most likely explanation, musk must sell more stock to pay for twitter

 

[bkp_duke]

Most likely explanation, musk must sell more stock to pay for twiter

NO NO NO!

Am I the only one here that actually READS the SEC filings? Musk has sold all he needs to. He even went and lined up additional funding so he doesn't have to get a share-backed loan.

Stop spreading this FUD!

 

[Artful Dodger]

We have today *finally* touched the -50% threshold:

• the 52-wk High was $1,243.49
• 50% of that High is $621.745
• intraday Low today was $620.57

The 'chart gods' have received their pound of flesh. Now let that cat bounce!

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[PeterJA]

I'll say it: TWTR overhang.

I'll say disinformation about the TWTR deal. Sucking Alpha reports:

Meanwhile, Bernstein did the math on the Twitter deal and said if it closes at the current price and Musk pledges essentially the entirety of his unencumbered shares towards the margin loan, there could be risk of a margin call if Tesla shares fell materially. Analyst Toni Sacconaghi noted that the margin loan comes with a loan to value margin call level of 35% and a reset level of 25%, which means that if at any point the loan to value ratio exceeds 35%, then Musk would have to provide enough incremental capital to bring the loan to value ratio at or below the reset level of 25% which presumably would come from the sale of existing TSLA shares. While the margin call would take a very sharp drop in TSLA's share price, Bernstein calls it a current overhang on the stock.​

What margin loan, Toni?

 

[Cherry Wine]

NO NO NO!

Am I the only one here that actually READS the SEC filings? Musk has sold all he needs to. He even went and lined up additional funding so he doesn't have to get a share-backed loan.

Stop spreading this FUD!

The problem is if one of his backers gets cold feet, leaving Musk to fill the void. It's a possibility that can't be ruled out, and is a very real overhang on the stock imho.

Elon even hedged on this point when he said that there were no more "planned" TSLA sales. Well, plans can change, and the market looks very much different now from where it was a few weeks ago.

 

[Drax7]

NO NO NO!

Am I the only one here that actually READS the SEC filings? Musk has sold all he needs to. He even went and lined up additional funding so he doesn't have to get a share-backed loan.

Stop spreading this FUD!

whomever committed to fund at $54, might very well not like to fund
under these mkt conditions or at a $54 price.
Does that make sense?

 

[The Accountant]

The problem is if one of his backers gets cold feet, leaving Musk to fill the void. It's a possibility that can't be ruled out, and is a very real overhang on the stock imho.

Since you are speculating with no facts . . . you are causing Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. FUD.

Here let me speculate: With Elon likely getting a lower price on Twitter, he may be finding more backers.

See you can speculate the other way too !

 

[elasalle]

The problem is if one of his backers gets cold feet, leaving Musk to fill the void. It's a possibility that can't be ruled out, and is a very real overhang on the stock imho.

Elon even hedged on this point when he said that there were no more "planned" TSLA sales. Well, plans can change, and the market looks very much different now from where it was a few weeks ago.

options:

1. buy TWTR
2. walk away (pay $1B, same day TSLA will go up a lot more ...)

3. TSLA share buyback
4. some good ole fashioned Tesla news

(3&4 would raise TSLA shares and hence make it less costly ... engineer success)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Since you are speculating with no facts . . . you are causing Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. FUD.

Here let me speculate: With Elon likely getting a lower price on Twitter, he may be finding more backers.

See you can speculate the other way too !

I'm not speculating one way or the other. I'm simply stating that it's a possible outcome - and it could be weighing on the stock. (I'll hang my hat on it and say that it is.) Putting our collective fingers in our ears and saying there's no way Elon will sell more TSLA shares is doing ourselves a disservice. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? I won't go that far.

EDIT: A thought exercise - what do you think would happen to TSLA if Elon disclosed that he was dropping his bid to buy TWTR? If, like me, you think the stock would go up on the announcement, then it's fair to say that it's an overhang. (Fair or not.)

 

[Drax7]

Since you are speculating with no facts . . . you are causing Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. FUD.

Here let me speculate: With Elon likely getting a lower price on Twitter, he may be finding more backers.

See you can speculate the other way too !

If Twitter is so attractive why is the stock collapsing.
unlikely more backers want a piece of it

 

[wtlloyd]

$621 was a very good price to buy 10 shares at. Anyone else? Or am I missing something?

 

[bkp_duke]

whomever committed to fund at $54, might very well not like to fund
under these mkt conditions or at a $54 price.
Does that make sense?

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. MORE FUD.

The FACT is that the SEC filings on the purchase CLEARLY lay out what Musk has to come up with: how much is cash, how much is a loan outright (NOT against shares), etc. There WAS a portion that was loan against his TSLA shares, but he went out and easily (under a week) came up with that money from other parties.

You are purely speculating at this point, I'm posting FACTS. You care to post some FACTS to back up your assumptions?

 

[traxila]

$621 was a very good price to buy 10 shares at. Anyone else? Or am I missing something?

Picked up an 800 June 24 call when it was at that price.

Thought it was a very good price. But ask me again in two years.

 

[bkp_duke]

The problem is if one of his backers gets cold feet, leaving Musk to fill the void. It's a possibility that can't be ruled out, and is a very real overhang on the stock imho.

Elon even hedged on this point when he said that there were no more "planned" TSLA sales. Well, plans can change, and the market looks very much different now from where it was a few weeks ago.

Have you seen the list of backers? These are all people and companies that have backed Musk previously (Ellison, some VC firms, etc.). I'm sure they would be happy with a lower price, but I'm also certain that they were perfectly fine at $54 or they would not have committed.

Also, the "planned" sales comment was before he even went out and got these backers.

 

[larmor]

If Twitter is so attractive why is the stock collapsing.
unlikely more backers want a piece of it

The realization that most social media platforms have a significant percentage of bots or algorithm driven “users”— And not actual users. This is in contrast to Tesla which has actual people driving cars at least for the foreseeable future.

 

[Todd Burch]

Anyone who thinks today's fall is TSLA-specific, it's not:

$621 was a very good price to buy 10 shares at. Anyone else? Or am I missing something?

My last buy, in the $700s, was also a very good price to buy at.

 

[Krugerrand]

If Twitter is so attractive why is the stock collapsing.
unlikely more backers want a piece of it

Almost everything is ‘collapsing’. Look around. It’s got nothing to do with the individual tickers or companies.