Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MadScientist23]

I believe the annual meeting is August 4.

He's talking about the Twitter meeting to vote on the buy out offer.

 

[OrthoSurg]

OK, I'm convinced. After reading @henchman24 's posts, and doing my own homework, I think this is the bottom.

Wish I had timed it better, but bought 89 more shares @ 651.65 to round out to another 100 lot. Pretty much used up all my dry powder.


Now you can all blame me when we drop below 600. LoL.

Bought my last at 650 and had a last buy order at 600. It didn’t fill.

I like the fact my aapl is red when Tsla is deep green. Nio also red. Hope the big whales are starting to deploy some funds to buy the best stock out there. TSLA it is. May FOMO kick in.

 

[henchman24]

He's talking about the Twitter meeting to vote on the buy out offer.

Meeting for Twitter is 1PM EST, but there isn't a vote on the buyout. That will be a special meeting that hasn't been announced yet. I'm kinda surprised they didn't put it in this meeting, but I can understand a delay if they just want it to fail too.

 

[Usain]

This is the same professor that silenced a volcano with a coconut bomb but couldn't build a simple boat to get them off the island ....

If they had just shot Gilligan they would have been off the island in a week.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He's talking about the Twitter meeting to vote on the buy out offer.

He should ask that in the Twitter thread.

 

[Max Plaid]

Who said anything about him being a messiah?!

 

[ZachF]

You don’t say!?!

 

[traxila]

I am not one to scream about the stupidity of analysts as I believe they are generally smart people with very clear agendas to manipulate the stock as they have been instructed. But stuff like below does give me pause:

"Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan on Tuesday morning lowered his price target for Tesla shares to $800 from $1,150.

Nathan forecasts the headwinds will push deliveries this year down by 180,000 vehicles, meaning Tesla will deliver 1.2 million vehicles this year, as opposed to the 1.4 million units previously expected."

1.2M is... completely flat production for the year based on the 300K that was managed in Q1 with two factories on line. If this were to be true after two new factories are officially ramping, then the conclusion should be that Tesla is or will no longer be production constrained and that demand has plateaued at 1.2 million vehicles per year.

A good hit job analyst would present this as a death blow to the company. GigaTexas by itself could manufacture 1.2 million all by itself when it is ramped 18 months from now. What the hell do you do with the rest of the factories? The correct interpretation is to ring the GJ bell of 'no demand' and slash your price target to 250, if not lower as it would be time to value TSLA at 15 to 20 X GAAP earnings based on 1.2 million annual sales.

Instead we have this incoherent note forecasting flat production for the entire year despite two new factories coming on line.
I guess he could argue it is all about supply constraints only.... but Tesla exited 2021 at a 1.2 million run rate. It makes no sense...

I am going to remain with my bold prediction that Tesla gets close enough to 500K for Q3 to bet on. Yessssss.....

 

[Cherry Wine]

I am not one to scream about the stupidity of analysts as I believe they are generally smart people with very clear agendas to manipulate the stock as they have been instructed. But stuff like below does give me pause:

"Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan on Tuesday morning lowered his price target for Tesla shares to $800 from $1,150.

Nathan forecasts the headwinds will push deliveries this year down by 180,000 vehicles, meaning Tesla will deliver 1.2 million vehicles this year, as opposed to the 1.4 million units previously expected."

1.2M is... completely flat production for the year based on the 300K that was managed in Q1 with two factories on line. If this were to be true after two new factories are officially ramping, then the conclusion should be that Tesla is or will no longer be production constrained and that demand has plateaued at 1.2 million vehicles per year.

A good hit job analyst would present this as a death blow to the company. GigaTexas by itself could manufacture 1.2 million all by itself when it is ramped 18 months from now. What the hell do you do with the rest of the factories? The correct interpretation is to ring the GJ bell of 'no demand' and slash your price target to 250, if not lower as it would be time to value TSLA at 15 to 20 X GAAP earnings based on 1.2 million annual sales.

Instead we have this incoherent note forecasting flat production for the entire year despite two new factories coming on line.
I guess he could argue it is all about supply constraints only.... but Tesla exited 2021 at a 1.2 million run rate. It makes no sense...

I am going to remain with my bold prediction that Tesla gets close enough to 500K for Q3 to bet on. Yessssss.....

I've come to see the majority of price targets as more sentiment-oriented than something rooted in fact-based analysis, despite all the accompanying window dressing masquerading as the latter.

 

[Dig deeper]

Not that i think it matters because macros have a bias for selling off no matter what at this point but FED minutes are released at 2pm EST today.

If we have some dovish commentary we might continue this small bounce. Stay frosty.

 

[The Accountant]

I am not one to scream about the stupidity of analysts as I believe they are generally smart people with very clear agendas to manipulate the stock as they have been instructed. But stuff like below does give me pause:

"Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan on Tuesday morning lowered his price target for Tesla shares to $800 from $1,150.

Nathan forecasts the headwinds will push deliveries this year down by 180,000 vehicles, meaning Tesla will deliver 1.2 million vehicles this year, as opposed to the 1.4 million units previously expected."

1.2M is... completely flat production for the year based on the 300K that was managed in Q1 with two factories on line. If this were to be true after two new factories are officially ramping, then the conclusion should be that Tesla is or will no longer be production constrained and that demand has plateaued at 1.2 million vehicles per year.

A good hit job analyst would present this as a death blow to the company. GigaTexas by itself could manufacture 1.2 million all by itself when it is ramped 18 months from now. What the hell do you do with the rest of the factories? The correct interpretation is to ring the GJ bell of 'no demand' and slash your price target to 250, if not lower as it would be time to value TSLA at 15 to 20 X GAAP earnings based on 1.2 million annual sales.

Instead we have this incoherent note forecasting flat production for the entire year despite two new factories coming on line.
I guess he could argue it is all about supply constraints only.... but Tesla exited 2021 at a 1.2 million run rate. It makes no sense...

I am going to remain with my bold prediction that Tesla gets close enough to 500K for Q3 to bet on. Yessssss.....

Daiwa expects 100k less from Shanghai. So to get 1.2M deliveries in 2022, we would have to see something like:

Q1 310k
Q2 230k (China -100K / Fremont/Berlin/Austin +20k)
Q3 325k
Q4 335k
FY 1,200k

Silly Stuff. And these guys get paid for this?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Everyone's quiet, we've seen this pattern before, right? So far so good. I have an OT question. Is Science Digest a reliable source of info? Wondering if I should renew is all. Interesting stuff for sure, wide scope.

Also, is this what a Think-Tank is like, and are we in one now?
A pretty big one I'd say. New form perhaps.

 

[UncaNed]

The options activity around $800 calls was pretty noteworthy in the amount of volume on them.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the same group that bought the bearish puts right before last Friday. If they’re the ones pushing the stock around, make quick money on the downside and flip the position and quick money on a rebound

Where are you seeing that $800 call activity, @StarFoxisDown! ?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am not one to scream about the stupidity of analysts as I believe they are generally smart people with very clear agendas to manipulate the stock as they have been instructed. But stuff like below does give me pause:

"Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan on Tuesday morning lowered his price target for Tesla shares to $800 from $1,150.

Nathan forecasts the headwinds will push deliveries this year down by 180,000 vehicles, meaning Tesla will deliver 1.2 million vehicles this year, as opposed to the 1.4 million units previously expected."

1.2M is... completely flat production for the year based on the 300K that was managed in Q1 with two factories on line. If this were to be true after two new factories are officially ramping, then the conclusion should be that Tesla is or will no longer be production constrained and that demand has plateaued at 1.2 million vehicles per year.

A good hit job analyst would present this as a death blow to the company. GigaTexas by itself could manufacture 1.2 million all by itself when it is ramped 18 months from now. What the hell do you do with the rest of the factories? The correct interpretation is to ring the GJ bell of 'no demand' and slash your price target to 250, if not lower as it would be time to value TSLA at 15 to 20 X GAAP earnings based on 1.2 million annual sales.

Instead we have this incoherent note forecasting flat production for the entire year despite two new factories coming on line.
I guess he could argue it is all about supply constraints only.... but Tesla exited 2021 at a 1.2 million run rate. It makes no sense...

I am going to remain with my bold prediction that Tesla gets close enough to 500K for Q3 to bet on. Yessssss.....

If Shanghai hits the 80-90k they’re targeting starting in July, I see Q3 as -

Shanghai - 260k
Fremont - 130k
Austin/Berlin - 70k

So I would be at 460k

There is the talked about expansion at Fremont (by 50%), but we don’t know what quarter that would happen

 

[oldTAVguy]

The "powers that be" have decreed that "TSLA SHALL NOT PASS 660". Except right now...

Edit: Well maybe not ... maybe ... maybe not ..........

 

[henchman24]

The "powers that be" have decreed that "TSLA SHALL NOT PASS 660". Except right now...

Edit: Well maybe not ... maybe ... maybe not ..........

Come on dovish Fed!

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Definitely an odd trading day. GME up 25% and Dicks Sporting goods (DKS) who reported earnings last night start started off down 9% and are now up 9% (18% swing) and TSLA unhinged from the other mega caps. Maybe we did hit bottom and the market is starting to settle (I hope!)

 

[ZachF]

Jerome no rain on parade plz.

 

[henchman24]

Definitely an odd trading day. GME up 25% and Dicks Sporting goods (DKS) who reported earnings last start started off down 9% and are now up 9% (18% swing) and TSLA unhinged from the other mega caps. Maybe we did hit bottom and the market is starting to settle (I hope!)

View attachment 808622

GME and DKS are very heavily shorted stocks.

 

[ZachF]

If Shanghai hits the 80-90k they’re targeting starting in July, I see Q3 as -

Shanghai - 260k
Fremont - 130k
Austin/Berlin - 70k

So I would be at 460k

There is the talked about expansion at Fremont (by 50%), but we don’t know what quarter that would happen

I think there is a good chance Tesla will make more cars in the second half of this year than they did in all of 2021.