Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Budding]

A break through 720 could really set off a gamma squeeze... there is already a lot of coverage happening, that'll accelerate it.

Can you please elaborate? Why is that number significant and why do you think this is just shorts covering?
Thanks

 

[Ogre]

Anybody that seriously discussed indoor farming for anything other than consumer preference high value shifting has never farmed. Indoor farming is terrible for the environment from beginning to end. Horrible. IT is al ESG greenwashing. ALL.

It is such greenwashing that the mars project even admitted that and said vertical farming, even on mars, made no sense and it was better to try to replicate the advantage of large fields. On freaking mars.

My brief skim therefore stopped when I saw that sub heading and trashed the whole thing as it immediately lost credibility.

Today, with the current climate, this is mostly true.

In 20 years when climate change has progressed and much of the current agricultural land is borderline desert, it will likely be essential.

 

[Ogre]

610 here , close though…

Edit... Told wife that I will calculate the loss from my $10-greediness in 2032 - it will be significant! I will add before we get there I am sure…

I didn't get greedy and didn't have any change in the couch.

But I was able to convert a few more chairs to LEAPs at around $650/ chair. Nice to see those running so quickly.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is it me, or does it look like Elon is suffering form lower back pain??

He doesn’t have a flight attendant masseuse anymore. Too soon?

 

[Cherry Wine]

A break through 720 could really set off a gamma squeeze... there is already a lot of coverage happening, that'll accelerate it.

Now imagine if we get a lower-than-expected PCE reading tomorrow.

 

[Nocturnal]

He doesn’t have a flight attendant masseuse anymore. Too soon?

He has tweeted about lower back pain before...

 

[30seconds]

It’s almost like an overhang on the stock has been removed

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm very sad about today's higher stock price.

It means I will never be able to buy another share at $694.20.

Knock on wood.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

More days like today and fewer like last week please

 

[adiggs]

"At SpaceX we specialize in converting things from 'impossible' to 'late'." - Elon Musk

Can someone expand on what that means? Initially everyone thinks it is impossible. but here at SpaceX we make it possible but it happens much later than our initial timelines - is that what he meant?

I call this Elon Time. Prognostications, and he has many, on when stuff will be done in the short term / tactical items, are frequently late. Even legendary in their lateness. So consistently late that I personally prefer that he'd stick to "shipping next week" type of prognostications for when something will happen. But he won't - he's Elon and he's a package deal.

Meanwhile, impossible stuff happens routinely on a long scale timeline.

So you remember these things and apply your own fudge factor to both.


Rocket re-use is the current big example - I expect FSD to be the new big example. Rocket re-use is, of course, impossible. And when SpaceX decided it was important / critical / vital to do the impossible, we were treated to a litany of "any day now"s and a montage of rockets blowing up. And then they stuck the landing, got better at it, and now SpaceX does this so routinely that it barely makes space flight news, much less more commonly available news.

Meanwhile there is 1 other orbit delivery company I know of that has made even 1 attempt at 'landing' (capturing) a spent booster for eventually having a process to reuse said booster. They've made 1 attempt and are now in the phase SpaceX already went through - the montage of landing failures, stuff blowing up, etc.. The rest of the world, including all of the government funded / executed programs, can't do this and aren't in danger of doing this (land orbital class booster).

Rocket re-use was very late on the original timeline. And more than a decade ahead of everybody else. Elon Time. And it happens over and over again.


I don't believe that FSD is anywhere close to enabling autonomous vehicles. I do believe that despite all of Elon's "any day now"s about FSD, I strongly believe that Tesla is the only company working down anything like a path to success. I don't know if it'll be this year for City NOA, next year, or 5 years. All I'm confident of is that Tesla is going to get there first with a more generalized solution, and nearly everybody else hasn't even found the right ballpark to join in the game.

Worth noting - the only serious competition I see to Tesla in this space is Mobileye; Mobileye theoretically has the similar capability to collect fleet level data from cars purchased by consumers, and is not dependent exclusively on company owned and company operated vehicles If I remember right, they are also pursuing both a camera only and camera+radar(+lidar?) solution.


I'd love to see Elon call it Elon Time in an interview sometime

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A break through 720 could really set off a gamma squeeze... there is already a lot of coverage happening, that'll accelerate it.

Might buy a few far OTM debit call spreads here to help add some fuel. Funny how cheap TSLA can still be after +5% and +8% days.

Waa looking at 1500/1600c for June 2024. Will be interesting to see how the debit has changed, was paying 12-1 two days ago.

I'm actually thinking a June 2024 spread selling the highest strike available and buying $200 lower might be a good move. Leave a cheap debit order in place and see if the increased demand for the "highest and longest" call contract creates a good bargain this week or next.

 

[Iain]

I call this Elon Time. Prognostications, and he has many, on when stuff will be done in the short term / tactical items, are frequently late. Even legendary in their lateness. So consistently late that I personally prefer that he'd stick to "shipping next week" type of prognostications for when something will happen. But he won't - he's Elon and he's a package deal.

Meanwhile, impossible stuff happens routinely on a long scale timeline.

So you remember these things and apply your own fudge factor to both.


Rocket re-use is the current big example - I expect FSD to be the new big example. Rocket re-use is, of course, impossible. And when SpaceX decided it was important / critical / vital to do the impossible, we were treated to a litany of "any day now"s and a montage of rockets blowing up. And then they stuck the landing, got better at it, and now SpaceX does this so routinely that it barely makes space flight news, much less more commonly available news.

Meanwhile there is 1 other orbit delivery company I know of that has made even 1 attempt at 'landing' (capturing) a spent booster for eventually having a process to reuse said booster. They've made 1 attempt and are now in the phase SpaceX already went through - the montage of landing failures, stuff blowing up, etc.. The rest of the world, including all of the government funded / executed programs, can't do this and aren't in danger of doing this (land orbital class booster).

Rocket re-use was very late on the original timeline. And more than a decade ahead of everybody else. Elon Time. And it happens over and over again.


I don't believe that FSD is anywhere close to enabling autonomous vehicles. I do believe that despite all of Elon's "any day now"s about FSD, I strongly believe that Tesla is the only company working down anything like a path to success. I don't know if it'll be this year for City NOA, next year, or 5 years. All I'm confident of is that Tesla is going to get there first with a more generalized solution, and nearly everybody else hasn't even found the right ballpark to join in the game.

Worth noting - the only serious competition I see to Tesla in this space is Mobileye; Mobileye theoretically has the similar capability to collect fleet level data from cars purchased by consumers, and is not dependent exclusively on company owned and company operated vehicles If I remember right, they are also pursuing both a camera only and camera+radar(+lidar?) solution.


I'd love to see Elon call it Elon Time in an interview sometime

I just want a SpaceX T-shirt with that quote on it

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Fairly low volume today for such a big move. And even lower this afternoon, hence the pushdown here.

I wonder what happens when and actual buying pressure shows up?

 

[Raisin45567]

We will never know. Tesla might not even exist in 2022 if Elon had never been on Twitter. In any case, it doesn't look like it's hurt anything.

Here is some anecdotal evidence: I used to talk about my Tesla all the time. Now I’m loathe to bring it up because the conversation inevitably dives into politics and matters of civility. The caveat is that the switch to EVs is so massive, incidents like “pedo sub” might not matter. But Elon’s rhetoric is frustrating, because I’m proud of my car and the company and I want my kids to have positive role models, and I want the brand to succeed in the long term.

 

[thesmokingman]

Here is some anecdotal evidence: I used to talk about my Tesla all the time. Now I’m loathe to bring it up because the conversation inevitably dives into politics and matters of civility. The caveat is that the switch to EVs is so massive, incidents like “pedo sub” might not matter. But Elon’s rhetoric is frustrating, because I’m proud of my car and the company and I want my kids to have positive role models, and I want the brand to succeed in the long term.

Hmm, I don't necessarily disagree with your sentiments but it ignores the huge amount of BS Elon had to go thru at every turn. He used his soapbox to push this country and this world towards EVs when everyone laughed at him. Vertical integration, the legacies clowned him for this. Re-usable rockets, lol wut? He broke a lot of eggs along the way to push us here. He's going to break a lot more eggs as he's goes along so if you are hoping that he turns into someone like Tim Cook... not realistic. Elon adheres to first principles so he's going to rub ppl the wrong way because he doesn't neatly fit into any box. It is what it is.

 

[henchman24]

Fairly low volume today for such a big move. And even lower this afternoon, hence the pushdown here.

I wonder what happens when and actual buying pressure shows up?

I wouldn't say this is that low of volume compared to the last 5 months of the stock. During the March move up, all days except March 23 were 35m and under. We're looking straight at 36-38m today.

 

[nativewolf]

Correct. Elon is notorious for saying "just 2 more weeks".

And everyone told him landing a first stage of a rocket was a fools errand. Well, that "fool" is laughing all the way to the bank now.

Huge spacex fan here. Huge. That said...no they didn't. It was proven to work in the 60s. That was the inspiration. Blue Origin was racing to the same goal and by all honest measures got to the goal of launch and reuse of a rocket to space (100km) first. Since then...almost nada from Blue Origin and SpaceX is laughing all the way to the bank and has brought starlink to society. Starlink also isn't new, it's just better.

 

[GOVA]

Part 2 of Tim Dodd's most recent interview with Elon at Starbase is out:

Starlink 2 ??? Wow, order of magnitude more I/O than starlink 1.

Does anyone have more source material for Starlink 2?

 

[Iain]

Here is some anecdotal evidence: I used to talk about my Tesla all the time. Now I’m loathe to bring it up because the conversation inevitably dives into politics and matters of civility. The caveat is that the switch to EVs is so massive, incidents like “pedo sub” might not matter. But Elon’s rhetoric is frustrating, because I’m proud of my car and the company and I want my kids to have positive role models, and I want the brand to succeed in the long term.

He has his warts but how about what he's done in Ukraine? How about bringing internet to the World, without Elon we would still all be paying $5 a gallon. I'll take Elon over 99.9% of any politician and hold my head high driving and supporting Tesla.

 

[Knightshade]

Huge spacex fan here. Huge. That said...no they didn't. It was proven to work in the 60s. That was the inspiration.

What rocket was that that proved it in the 60s? Only vertical landing rocket system from the 60s I'm aware of was the apollo lander, which obviously wasn't operating with earth gravity so is apples to sputniks of a comparison. There's a few pre-spacex examples of actual VTVL demo units in the 90s (the DC-X for example which AFAIK is the first actual vertical landing on earth but didn't go very high either) and early 2000s, but even then largely just tiny prototype POCs to low altitudes.....Nobody actually proved a workable orbital class VTVL rocket until SpaceX.