Maybe wording, but they would not maintain the same profit. But I wholeheartedly agree in the storm of a recession, Tesla has the high margins to allow them to reduce pricing and maintain their aggressive demand and growth strategy...even in a recession with reduced automotive sales.
I should have said "profitability", not profit. But they could also maintain or increase profits in any recession that did not require them to cut prices more than their ever-decreasing cost to produce. I've already covered all the mechanisms by which their production costs are dropping so I won't go over those again except to summarize that it's mostly due to efficiencies of scale, manufacturing innovations and the reduced transport costs that comes with factories distributed on continents where the cars are purchased.
How bad of a recession would it take to cause Tesla to cut prices more than the ever-decreasing cost to produce? My estimation is it would take a devastating recession to cause that. A recession so strong it is unlikely to actually happen at this point in time. I think if the worst happened, Tesla would still be very likely to remain profitable, albeit at lower levels than previously. A normal recession will likely not cause TSLA earnings to contract.
1) Tesla sales only make up roughly 3% of the global automotive market. While a severe recession will reduce demand for new cars it will not do it evenly across all manufacturers. There is plenty of room for new car sales to fall by 40% (for example) while Tesla sales continue to increase.
2) Tesla has far more demand than it can fill as evidenced by waiting lists in many cases of over 6 months. Any thinking person knows some potential buyers will see that and simply buy another brand, without even putting a deposit for a car they can't take delivery of for many months. This means Tesla has a lot more demand than the actual number of people who placed a deposit and got in line.
3) People pay more for a Tesla than they might choose to spend on a new gasoline car, but the additional dollars are not a frivolous or extravagant luxury, it's an investment in the future, both the buyer's financial future and, in many cases, the future of humanity. The reasons they are buying a Tesla are not weakened by a recession, in some ways they are strengthened. On the other hand, a recession is more likely to affect the buying decision of a person buying a well-appointed Lexus simply because they feel good about their financial future and they want to treat themself to a nicer car to reward themselves. Sales of other luxury brands and cheaper new autos will feel most of the impact of a recession, not Tesla.
note: Tesla earnings can be "lumpy" due to many different factors so I am not claiming each and every quarter will necessarily be higher than the last, simply that the larger trend of growing profits year over year should not be disrupted by a normal recession, even one lasting a year or longer and that Tesla would likely remain profitable even in a more drastic recession. A mild recession could even benefit Tesla.
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