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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I’m pretty sure Elon figured out how to land rockets vertically after finding Young Sheldon’s notes with the correct formulas. I think there was a 30 minute documentary covering that 2 or 3 years ago.As others have said - and you have yourself noted with the DC-X comment - the lineage is there back in the 60s, if not the execution.
An explanation is Philip Bono SASSTO 1967 leading to Delta Clipper DC-X 1991 then to Carmack Armadillo, Blue Origin new Shepard etc. Even the spiral programmatic aspects and COTS aspects are there in DC-X.
You could say that the only real change that SpaceX made was to ditch the cross-range criteria for one-orbit-only reland from polar spysat insertion, which was what crippled both the Shuttle and DC-X and is a military-driven desirable feature (I would argue, not a true 'need'). Plus of course the non-trivial matter of relatively assured funding (at least in comparison with NASA) and the technology base (design & mfg) having greatly matured in the interim.
(On a side note I don't think we've ever really gotten the full inside account on relationships in both directions between Carmack Armadillo and Musk SpaceX. Many things were very openly discussed, but not all, at least that is my suspicion.)
Moderator input: All see Mod post below, usu. on next page.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Nice to see you coming out of that stuffed shirt shell a bit and allowing your inner party animal a breath of fresh air; the bar jokes are a nice recent touch. If I recall correctly, you’ve even been tossing in a meme or two as well. There’s hope for you yet.
The Accountant
Active Member
The analyst, Pierre Ferragu during the Q1 earnings call estimated that Tesla would have about $400b to $500b in cash by 2030.
Pierre Ferragu: (46:24)
Great. I’d like to ask you some questions about free cashflow. . . . . .I did the math very quick and I see you guys sitting on four or maybe $500 billion of cash at the end of the decade. And I was wondering if it’s something you have given some thought about, what you mean to do with this cash?
Gary Black projects about $200b by 2026 and when you trend his numbers out you get to about $400b - $500b in 2030 as well.
My model has something north of $450B in 2030.
I have done projections for companies holding the most cash. If Tesla does not pay dividends or do buybacks, I project that Tesla will have the most cash than any other S&P500 company by 2027 (maybe by 2026):
2018 - 2021 - Actual Cash on Hand
2022 - 2027 - Cash on Hand Projections
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The Accountant
Active Member
I was going to use a pizza analogy but it didn't seem to work (I know you like things explained with pizza). I will save the pizza for my stock split meme.
Krugerrand
Meow
All right, let’s go with that for a second. What exactly has happened that makes it a complete cluster? I haven’t seen anything other than a lot of hand waving and blustering. Indeed, I’d say some interesting facts are coming to light about the Twitter board, employees and company secrets.
Krugerrand
Meow
I do like pizza, but feel free to use chicken wings, cookies, chocolate covered pretzels, beer nuts or cats as illustrative points.
DFibRL8R
Active Member
speaking of cats ... that lovely avatar has been hanging around a long time now ... what will it take to update new ATH?
... I miss the dog that showed up for a brief stint12k is a key level for the Nasdaq... push through and hold and the chances grow for a nice rally to the 12.7-13.2 range.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As I've said before I don't care about Twitter and don't think it's important so his involvement is a distraction to the actual mission. I don't think anyone would claim this is exactly a smooth transaction whatever the outcome, hence a cluster.
larmor
Active Member
You know there are other islands available, just saying.No regrets… I bought the dip
Last day before heading to the Hamptons…. See you there
In someway fundamentally everything is fine and dandy at Tesla, but there is always something to worry ,my biggest worry is since Tesla increase prices by a lot over last year but in recession like environment prices may need to come down a little on face of increasing supply from Berlin and Austin. But on other end, even if margin comes down a little and volume rise quickly overall profit will rise significantly. Moreover Tesla has so many program at various stage to lower production cost and Tesla operates in china where EV competition is intense and doing there.
We actually need to produce millions of EVs a year to simply cut out 1 million bpd of oil. Fuel efficiency and economic growth matter far more (sadly) at this time. Most folks use 10 million EVs to reduce consumption of 1 million bpd (we use 75 if my memory is correct). Anyway, the point being we need ever EV made and the addressable market is simply gigantic. So good on Ford, VW, GM, and all the other old evil OEMs for every EV they can pump out. It will take several years of global EV production to eliminate just the Russian portion of production that is exported. Lots of good discussion on this in the Ukraine war thread.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Automotive is scaled and the path is clear, that's far more important than maintaining gross margins at these nosebleed levels.
Putting the Model 2 on the back burner and focusing on FSD/robotaxi means we can wrap up Elon's efforts in Automotive within maybe 2yrs. This allows a transition of focus to Energy and SpaceX down the line.
To me that's the positive that overwhelm any negative you could think of. I mean....we won't even be worried about Tesla building and scaling production in these potential new Gigafactories in Indonesia and Brazil.
We're definitively in the vertical portion of the EV S-curve, and about to begin the upswing in Energy. Good times.
Tesla will be hit hard at 745-750 to keep a breakout below 760.
The primary item you should be focused on is batteries. If Tesla can source battery materials and produce them at the scale promised then they will succeed greatly. In two to three years you are going to start seeing this battery supply limitation play out in full scale across all other EV manufacturers. The EV market is growing to the extent that whatever automaker can produce a semi desirable EV will have little to worry about on the demand side.
As for pricing power...IF Tesla somehow gets production high enough to meet demand and work through it's backlog then you could possibly see a recessionary impact, BUT since Tesla has drastically raised prices all they would need to do to stoke demand would be to bring prices back to their original levels assuming that the same recessionary forces are impacting Tesla suppliers as well. The companies that succeed in an inflationary environment are those with pricing power. In a recessionary environment companies with ample customer demand will succeed. I know of no other company that is raising prices while demand for the product is growing.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
UPS trimmed it's fuel use by something like 30% in the last 10 years. And that's without EVs.
There are far more factors than EV adoption in dropping crude demand. In the summer, Saudi Arabia uses 1Mb/d just to air condition buildings.
Demand has nearly certainly peaked globally. There's just a lot of incentive to bend the narrative to say otherwise.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
TSLA movements are heavily influenced by their massive options market.
The plan was clear. Crush the retail investors selling puts and put spreads, then run over the same people selling call spreads and covered calls.
MM's get three delicious things:
1) Money
2) Removing contract selling competition
3) Cheap shares from CC sellers
The plan was clear. Crush the retail investors selling puts and put spreads, then run over the same people selling call spreads and covered calls.
MM's get three delicious things:
1) Money
2) Removing contract selling competition
3) Cheap shares from CC sellers
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