Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

In someway fundamentally everything is fine and dandy at Tesla, but there is always something to worry ,my biggest worry is since Tesla increase prices by a lot over last year but in recession like environment prices may need to come down a little on face of increasing supply from Berlin and Austin. But on other end, even if margin comes down a little and volume rise quickly overall profit will rise significantly. Moreover Tesla has so many program at various stage to lower production cost and Tesla operates in china where EV competition is intense and doing there.

Yeah, I worried about that exact thing - never.

Elon has tweeted he thinks a recession is coming and he’s given a predictive length of time. Last time he thought a recession was coming, he took specific steps to prepare Tesla for it. Going out on a limb here, but I imagine steps are being taken again to best position Tesla to weather such an event. Maybe, paying down most of their debt was one of those steps?

 

[Drax7]

@Drax7 - to better address your question. Let's assume the cure for cancer is successful in clinical trials but it will take 3 years to get all the social programs to approve payment around the globe. Even when the FDA and other regulatory bodies approve a drug, you still need to get the countries' health organization to approve reimbursement and that can take years. In this case PoS is practically 100% even though revenues will arrive over time. The P/E could be huge . . .maybe 300 or 400 depending on the opportunity and how far the competition is from developing a similar drug.

Thank you, I like your rationale, the valuation is based on discounting future earnings , and the probability
of achieving them.

Using a trailing p/e to determine value, in a high growth stock such as in Tesla is of Little value.

The probability of tesla reaching a 10 million car yearly production within 10 years is at least 90%
and 10 million is half their inspired goal. Now if you introduce fsd success and revenues ……

 

[ZachF]

Smells squeezy yo

 

[Tim S]

I think you are right. But they didn't get my money ... but I got a few more of someone's shares.
HODLing at least until 2025, acquiring when I can. At that point, I will reevaluate.

Also bought a little of the Baron's fund that includes roughly 5% SpaceX. Seemed the only way a small fry like me could get any of that (the same fund also holds roughly 17% Telsa). What SpaceX is doing is incredible. If they ever go public, my piddling share amount probably won't matter much monetarily, but boy will I have some pride in it. Again, if you haven't watched "Countdown" on Netflix, you owe it to yourself. SpaceX Inspiration(4) through the roof. Faith in our future: restored.

HODL through this folks. More wild swings will come from the oil underpinnings of our world - can't say enough how glad I am Tesla has a massive cash buffer and effectively 0 debt to get through the next few years.

Now ramp, my pretties, ramp!!!

FYI one of the Baron funds, BPTRX, holds over 5% SpaceX and close to 50% TSLA (as of 4/30).

BPTRX - Baron Partners Mutual Fund - All-Cap Growth

Baron Partners Fund is a focused Fund that invests mainly in U.S. companies of any size with significant growth potential. A substantial percentage of the Fund's assets are in its top 10 holdings. It also uses leverage. Non-diversified.

www.baronfunds.com

 

[henchman24]

A full 30-45 minutes of selling pressure could only peel off 80pts of the Nasdaq, and a solid rejection. This is looking more like a rally. Breaking out of the trend will be very difficult, but a run to the 12.7-13.2 range is looking more and more likely.

 

[larmor]

In someway fundamentally everything is fine and dandy at Tesla, but there is always something to worry ,my biggest worry is since Tesla increase prices by a lot over last year but in recession like environment prices may need to come down a little on face of increasing supply from Berlin and Austin. But on other end, even if margin comes down a little and volume rise quickly overall profit will rise significantly. Moreover Tesla has so many program at various stage to lower production cost and Tesla operates in china where EV competition is intense and doing there.

A rational investor might ask tesla: Why not just make batteries and FSD software? Let everyone else do the rest, as public opinion on EVs has changed, legacy auto is starting (slowly) to transition, and FSD software and hardware is nearing completion.

 

[JRP3]

With all due respect as you've experienced a lot on this ride, just because you don't think it's important doesn't mean it isn't or won't be.

Yes it's possible I'm wrong, it's happened before. It's also possible Elon is wrong, which has also happened before as he himself has pointed out:

"Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are, everyone is wrong some of the time."

 

[Krugerrand]

A rational investor might ask tesla: Why not just make batteries and FSD software? Let everyone else do the rest, as public opinion on EVs has changed, legacy auto is starting (slowly) to transition, and FSD software and hardware is nearing completion.

That seems short-sighted to me and honestly, I wouldn’t trust anyone else to do it or do it right. Historically, they’ve bent us over and had their way with us.

 

[elasalle]

A rational investor might ask tesla: Why not just make batteries and FSD software? Let everyone else do the rest, as public opinion on EVs has changed, legacy auto is starting (slowly) to transition, and FSD software and hardware is nearing completion.

Vertical Integration?

 

[thesmokingman]

A full 30-45 minutes of selling pressure could only peel off 80pts of the Nasdaq, and a solid rejection. This is looking more like a rally. Breaking out of the trend will be very difficult, but a run to the 12.7-13.2 range is looking more and more likely.

Crosses fingers it's not a dead blank bounce.

 

[Prunesquallor]

…

HODL through this folks. More wild swings will come from the oil underpinnings of our world - can't say enough how glad I am Tesla has a massive cash buffer and effectively 0 debt to get through the next few years.

…

My new investment strategy:

 

[thesmokingman]

A rational investor might ask tesla: Why not just make batteries and FSD software? Let everyone else do the rest, as public opinion on EVs has changed, legacy auto is starting (slowly) to transition, and FSD software and hardware is nearing completion.

That's an irrational one not rational imo due to chicken or egg causality dilemma.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes it's possible I'm wrong, it's happened before. It's also possible Elon is wrong, which has also happened before as he himself has pointed out:

"Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are, everyone is wrong some of the time."

So, you just want to be on the record of opposition in case he’s wrong this time? Cool.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I’m waiting for the individual who sent me that one, or someone else, to send me a new one that strikes my fancy, finicky self. And no, I will not accept dog ones unless the dog is in the mouth of the cat.

OT. ?

 

[JRP3]

So, you just want to be on the record of opposition in case he’s wrong this time? Cool.

I've been quite clear that I don't think it's "in case" this time.

 

[bkp_duke]

Crosses fingers it's not a dead blank bounce.

CAT is the word you are looking for. CAT.

@Krugerrand

 

[JustSaying]

No regrets… I bought the dip

Last day before heading to the Hamptons…. See you there

OT,
Spending July on Long Island first stops, "Lunch at the Lobster Roll" Hamptons, NY and Burgers at "All American"
Thank You, Tesla!

lobster roll hamptons - Search Videos

www.bing.com

 

[thesmokingman]

CAT is the word you are looking for. CAT.

@Krugerrand

I was not mentioning the animal type, never know the fetishes around here lol.

 

[SN_8]

The human mind is a strange thing, isn't it?

 

[Ohmster]

Friend of mine asked me about TSLA on Sunday. I told her I was a bit bummed lately, but not discouraged. It’s a buy at any point below 1k (insert whatever number you are comfortable with for others).

She bought a few chairs. Also some Disney, Cisco, Walmart, Google, Amazon, and Carnival. She thought diversification was key and that my strategy (what strategy, I just buy when I can) didn’t sit well for her needs.

My response was simple.

There are actually differing opinions on the diversify strategy. Spread the risk if unsure. Risk it all if you are sure. Guess where I am.​