Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MountainRatMat]

The human mind is a strange thing, isn't it?
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Bingo! This meme is perfect. I try my hardest to not be an emotional investor because I know that is what gets me in to trouble.

Some thoughts I've been having:

1) Rob Maurer has been an excellent sounding board on extracting the signal from the noise, he remains cool as a cucumber in these current times. I want to be more like Rob.

2) I am extremely lucky and I know there are others on here as well that bought long ago so even with these fluctuations it really is just a blip compared to where we started at. Playing with the banks (shorts) money is always the best. Let it ride...

3) If anyone really thought prices could go up indefinitely then they shouldn't be investing in individual stocks. A dose of reality was coming, the only question was when. Nobody can tell you when, you just have to look at the bigger picture and understand how markets work as a whole. You also have to remember you can't outsmart/time the market.

Thanks for listening (or not) but it is always good to remain humble at all times good and bad. I invest in Tesla because I believe they are the best company in the world. Are they perfect? no....but it is the best one out there.

 

[woodisgood]

You guys honestly think Uncle Leo doesn’t lurk here? Obviously if he votes he outs himself.

 

[Ogre]

Someone posted this question on Twitter recently. "What price to sell now and never be allowed to invest in Tesla again?"

I'd have to play with some math but I think somewhere in that $2500-3k range would make sense to me. Bird in the hand and all that.

This would be easy for me. I‘m not super greedy. I just want it to be high enough so there is zero chance I will ever have to work again. I do have some purchases I’d like to make though so I’d have to do some math to figure out exact numbers.

You guys honestly think Uncle Leo doesn’t lurk here? Obviously if he votes he outs himself.

The poll only has a $16m+ option and there are already 2 votes there so not much of an out.

 

[Usain]

A higher signal-to-noise ratio will attract more attention to the reasonable arguments being presented here and accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.

@Gigapress Have you considered starting a YouTube channel with a focus on Tesla energy and future energy trends? Basically, make your recent post into a series of videos.

I've thought about this a lot as I'm really more bullish on Tesla Energy than any other part of the business. Tesla Energy deserves its own channel and coverage. But I've done less research than you and I lack the EE background, so I wouldn't have as much credibility.

 

[DarthPierce]

My number was a lot bigger about 6 weeks ago.

EDIT: Just taking the average of the ranges, and the top range at minimum value, we're already at about $60M in Tesla holdings after about 10 minutes.

EDIT2: Make that $90M after 20 votes using the same method as above...

Needed some bigger buckets... (not for me, unfortunately but still)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

A minority has listened. @The Accountant was lurking for months before joining, I lurked for years before joining, and we’re not alone.

I lurked from 2013 to 2019 or 2020. Actually made a few posts in 2013 under a different user name but promptly forgot the password.

 

[Ogre]

Sounds like time for a poll!

Private link, anonymous answers.

How much do you have invested in TSLA?

How much $ do you have invested in TSLA? - Online Poll - StrawPoll

What's your opinion? Vote now: < 1 million, 1 - 2 million, 2 - 4 million, 4 - 8 million, 8 - 16 million, > 16 million...

strawpoll.com

Funny part about the way you did the numbers is if we hit ATH again everything shifts nicely one category up.

Though much of my Tesla investment is now in LEAPs so possibly more than one up?? (Wishful thinking here)

My number was a lot bigger about 6 weeks ago.

“It’s shrinkage. Jerry tell her about shrinkage!”

 

[UncaNed]

I estimate there’s on the order of $100M worth of TSLA holdings between everyone here combined plus lurkers and friends and family of members.

I'd guess it's at least 100 times that - $10 billion, if not way more. I gather there's a few of us (NOT me!!!) who STARTED buying TSLA with many millions, most of them WAY smarter than me.

In any case, I'm in awe of the brilliant, prolific, and much appreciated contributions of others such as yourself, too numerous to list, contributing graduate level thesis on all matters TSLA while I feel like a kindergartener proud of the crude ducky and horsy I drew with my crayons.

If I have anything particularly useful to contribute here, it might be this:
Many of you keep preaching "buy the dip". I buy LEAPS on the dip, but need to learn when to cash some in at or near All Time Highs, because you'll need to do that to freshen them up (replace) them with later expirations anyway on the next dip, occasionally adding a few more shares to your long-term HODLINGS.

Edit- I bet our cumulative daily account balances often VARY by a good $400,000,000, courtesy of the leverage inherent in all our options.

NOT ADVICE. In fact, I see a clear pathway that this could DECIMATE your account value if Macros or something go poorly.

 

[SO16]

This is an interesting comment. Did Texas finally allow cars to be sold in the state?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530218725114228737

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530221495712198660

 

[jbcarioca]

Talking to real estate agents in Connecticut, New York, Vermont and Florida, they have told me that they have never in their career seen as many 100% cash offers as they have seen in 2020 - 2022. A lot of stock market gains went into real estate. I don't believe homeowners are as leveraged today as in 2008.
And for 2 people I know who were getting mortgages, the banks were tough. Not the easy lending we saw in 2006-2008.

House prices may come down but I don't think we will see a collapse because there does not appear to be enough housing supply.

Edit: Talking US market here.

Sound reasoning. However there is some evidence that there are several markets dominated by speculative investors and wealthy foreigners, thus perhaps producing a very frothy high end of real estate market. Some like much of South Florida, New York City have had and still have massive high end construction commenced back when money was both cheap and easy.

While those markets also have had very high proportions of high end cash buyers, construction finance has not continued to be so easy to obtain.

The used car bonanza for many models is obviously supply-driven, but also suggests a cash-rich buyer community.

Bluntly, while I’m both old and an active observer of business cycles. I have never seen anything remotely solid in past circumstances. That is in large part because of the Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of the Post WWII global economy and the closely coupled move towards relative global harmony.

Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan couple with large conquests of extremist governments and political disarray (US, Turkey, Russia, Hungary coupled with less dramatic but growing extremist movements in France, Brazil, UK, Germany and Italy. Those combine with religious displacement if secular rule in Turkey, India and many other countries.

Tesla has been a creation of globalism, with collaboration above insularity. Is that not the largest single threat to Tesla success?

I do not intend this as a political rant. I do think we are understating political risk to TSLA from these factors. Mr Musk seems to see these issues, but clearly does not see plausible solutions, at least if current comments are indicative..

I see no more lucrative current investment than those I now hold, including TSLA. Hence I am not making any other major investments.

 

[AudubonB]

On the “How Much Invested” polls:
I will guarantee all that the larger the amount owned, the more reticent the holder is in divulging his or her position, and this is irrespective of any anonymity of the pool. In that respect, the amassed number always will be lower - and quite possibly by an order of magnitude - than reality.

To make such a project yet more meaningless, there is nothing to stop even one single miscreant from trashing the poll by claiming his 83 shares as 1,000,000. Participants may remember even I have thrown out on at least one occasion a post like “…took advantage of this dip to add another million shares, plus or minus” - although I made sure all understood the “minus” was the operative word.

 

[woodisgood]

It seems to me that many of the personalities who now enjoy personal platforms on Twitter or Youtube, originally solidified their conviction here.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Sounds like time for a poll!

Private link, anonymous answers.

How much do you have invested in TSLA?

How much $ do you have invested in TSLA? - Online Poll - StrawPoll

What's your opinion? Vote now: < 1 million, 1 - 2 million, 2 - 4 million, 4 - 8 million, 8 - 16 million, > 16 million...

strawpoll.com

I'm surprised <1 million isn't the largest population. Seems to indicate Tesla investors are not the typical "diversified" investors.

 

[UncaNed]

Sounds like time for a poll!

Private link, anonymous answers.

How much do you have invested in TSLA?

How much $ do you have invested in TSLA? - Online Poll - StrawPoll

What's your opinion? Vote now: < 1 million, 1 - 2 million, 2 - 4 million, 4 - 8 million, 8 - 16 million, > 16 million...

strawpoll.com

@ZeApelido , I've gathered that others here have way more than 16 million; this limitation will surely lower the resulting total, I think you need to add a bunch of higher categories. A running total based on the results would be interesting.

I'm motivated and amazed by the fact that MOST of us, myself included have a real potential pathway to join those higher categories some day.

 

[GrandEnigma]

I'm surprised <1 million isn't the largest population. Seems to indicate Tesla investors are not the typical "diversified" investors.

Outside of a 401K and IRA I have no direct opiton for TSLA in, TSLA is my only brokerage holding.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm surprised <1 million isn't the largest population. Seems to indicate Tesla investors are not the typical "diversified" investors.

TMC probably skews slightly older in terms of age, investing experience, professional maturity…the discourse and moderation sort of selects for that. If you did the poll on TSLA Twitter or Reddit the results would be different.

 

[mongo]

This is an interesting comment. Did Texas finally allow cars to be sold in the state?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530218725114228737

India is not a state...
The US allows sales/ service of Teslas as does Germany and China.
I suppose India technically would, but not at favorable terms (see also Tesla's China non-joint venture).

 

[MountainRatMat]

It seems to me that many of the personalities who now enjoy personal platforms on Twitter or Youtube, originally solidified their conviction here.

I am the exact opposite. I really love Twitter because I can create my own circle of trust. I have curated my feed to be all skiing and Tesla. On the Tesla side I follow thoughtful, trustworthy people. I also follow bulls and bears. I have a great stream of high quality Tesla news and information coming in on Twitter and that is a big reason I hold my solid convictions about $TSLA.

Guess what, Elon Musk is one of those sources. What other company can you get a direct feed in to the CEO's mind in a sometimes way too honest fashion?

 

[AudubonB]

An observation, albeit one without a definitive conclusion, starting with the current macroeconomic environment. A few preambles in seriate:

* All here - whether in North America, Europe, Asia, AU/NZ, Latin America or Mars - are personally aware of the inflationary environment present for the past 12-18 months or so. Likewise, most have noted the comments by the Bernankes and Lagardes of the world that signs are showing that inflation has peaked and is easing; most such comments include “significantly”.

*This is disinflation. It is NOT a reduction in prices, which is deflation. Instead of prices rising by, for example, 10% they are increasing at 5%. Thus, (bear with me please) something that at t=Past had been $100, went at t=Present, to $110 and now will be going at t=Next, to $155.5.

In general, central banks, businesses and the markets tend to like disinflation and abhor deflation. The former suggests calm seas and following winds; the latter….a lee shore. Non-sailors, figure out the imagery on your own.

Gotta go; to be continued.
With the Great Big BUT, which is why I’m writing this post.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sounds like time for a poll!

Private link, anonymous answers.

How much do you have invested in TSLA?

How much $ do you have invested in TSLA? - Online Poll - StrawPoll

What's your opinion? Vote now: < 1 million, 1 - 2 million, 2 - 4 million, 4 - 8 million, 8 - 16 million, > 16 million...

strawpoll.com

Depends on the day, eh? A bit less today than a few weeks ago.