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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Elon and Zach’s answer to Pierre’s question makes it sounds like they intend to spend most of that cash on CapEx for the foreseeable future and I’ve done some math showing how.

The biggest cash sink starts when Tesla begins effectively buying their own production of cars, batteries, and solar instead of selling it externally.
Thank you Gigapress.
It makes me wonder how much analysis Gary Black or Leo Koguan does when they are squawking for TSLA to do buybacks.



There is huge global demand for EVs, and plenty of $$ to be made with solar+battery storage.
TLDR: two words; SCALE UP
 
Ah, The Oil Drum - I sure do miss it! First time I've seen anyone here reference it. Fantastic resource.

If anyone is interested, current work by the group of contributors formerly there can be found on this page The Oil Drum | The Oil Drum writers: Where are they now?

and a wee bit of poking around the site will still give a motherlode of energy related information, all archived.
The Oil Drum got me into Tesla in 2006. One if its alumnus, Chris Nelder, has by far and away the best podcast on the energy transition. Every podcast is deep dive, so not for everyone. The podcast is the 'Energy Transition Show'. There is an annual fee.
 
Poll at 69 responses. No one else vote. 😄

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would be interesting to see where folks would fall in terms of paper profits (I assume folks answered here in terms of initial investment plus gains)....if you invested even a modest amount pre 2018/19 your are likely to fall in the same dollar band .... many of my 2021/2022 purchases currently a drag on my performance ... however in a few years these purchases will also look very smart :D
I for one sold a bunch of stocks that did nothing for years and invested in TSLA ... i would be in the <<<<1 Million category if I held those value traps

I must thank TMC for giving me the conviction over the past 5 years investing in this generational company... owning the the product also helped with conviction.... it trumps the FUD
 
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When did you say it?
I started grappling the issue in August of 2011

While I am proud of the work I did back then, I am in awe of the deep understanding and hard work that others put into such things now. They go way beyond what I have done and am capable of. I poke at the idiocy of the Utubers constantly putting out content, but some of them have done great work also.
Not in 2011, but at least 3/4 years ago. I think further back than that I said it, but don’t recall exactly. I claim no maths involved, pure instinct.

One of the first spine tingler times was way back when Elon got mad because the OEMs weren’t responding in the manner he thought they would. He was in Europe (I think Norway or the Netherlands, but might have been Germany - someone here will remember where) and he said (paraphrased) - ‘we’ll force them to make EVs or we’ll put them out of business’.

I also had another inkling when he first mentioned Tesla would have their own battery factory if someone else didn’t do it soon. I also remember he had to say that publicly three/four times before anyone picked up on it and then as usual he was mocked. The TMC board was full of posters claiming it couldn’t be done, a factory would cost upwards of $20B (yeah, you know who you are, and I know you still lurk here - how’s it feel being so wrong all these years?).

So, yeah. My gut says bigger than anyone can really wrap their brain around because it would mean a complete upheaval of the world as we know it. #epiconaginormousscale.
 
Ya had me, then you lost me.
20% followed by 80% is 116% gain.
Starting with a gain of 20%, only a compounded 67% gain is needed to double.
4 gains of 20% is 108% gain.
Including an inital 20% gain, six 10% gain periods gets it above double.

Good point but my larger takeaway from these kind of discussions is only to wonder why people who are presumably in this for big, life-changing gains are spending so much energy focusing on such small little baby steps.

Sure, to achieve greater gains we have to get past all the points along that path, but why spend so much time and energy watching the paint dry?

If I'm going to hike to the top of a tall mountain I know I have to get out of the parking lot in order to achieve my goal. But I don't count each step through the parking lot and strategize what it's going to take to get out of the parking lot so I can take a selfie when I make it all the way to where the trail enters the forest. And I don't repeat that behavior all the way to the top of the mountain. When I break out of the forest and enter the alpine, I will reappraise the weather and how I'm doing in terms of time and energy relative to existing conditions. When I reach the first snowfield or steeper exposed section, I might take a snack break and reappraise my condition before continuing. But I don't wonder if each step I take might be the one that trips me up and makes me fall, I just proceed with normal awareness, sure of my ability to walk. I don't celebrate each and every step along the way as a victory, I assume I will make each step as long as I have correctly assessed the situation. If I fall, I will know it just as soon, regardless of whether I'm obsessing over every step.

The market is a messy, ugly place and is simply an unavoidable necessity to achieve investment objectives. I recommend investors avoid paying attention to the market whenever possible. It's not emotionally healthy or productive to dissect every little market reaction, even more so when the market reaction has nothing to do with your bigger investment goals. Watching your long-term investment climb with a magnifying glass obscures those larger goals. This kind of behavior is what causes the "sell" itch to become overwhelming as the price climbs higher. Because it makes the gains seem so fragile and so hard won. Because you doubted and/or obsessed over those gains every step of the way. Why were you paying such close attention to them to begin with if you didn't have serious doubts? The use of the magnifying glass on the way up only obscures the underlying dynamic, the actual growth of your investment and the performance of the underlying company. Also, celebrating every step requires that you experience some pain with every backslide.

None of that is healthy or productive, who needs it? I can tell you, when you get to the top of that figurative mountain, you will have a lot more energy remaining if you didn't doubt every step, if you just let it come naturally while making prudent and informed decisions at key points along the way. In other words, you will be better prepared to make good decisions as to how to handle your recent good fortune if you didn't spend an inordinate amount of time and energy over many years watching every messy and irrelevant detail of the process.

Investing should free the body, mind and spirit, not consume them. Otherwise, what's the point of having money if it leaves you worse off overall than if you didn't make it? The trick is to make the money without it extracting a toll upon you. I would suggest if you think you actually like the process of following the ticker minute by minute, if you think it makes you a more valuable or worthy human, or you think it will make you wealthier, you are probably mistaken.
 
Today was a prime example of a day, when Max-Pain meant nothing at all. Earlier in the week, there was a large Call wall at 700, by this morning that shrank and got almost matched up by a similar high Put wall. However, there were still unmatched Call peaks at 710, 720, 730, 740 and a fairly big one at 750 (all without significant number of Puts on these prices):
1653681847476.png

The numerical max pain value was listed as 685 this morning, two days ago it was listed as 670.
Yet, we closed just below 760, and the above graph provides absolutely no preference for that.
Clearly, other forces have ruled over the max pain today.
 
Good point but my larger takeaway from these kind of discussions is only to wonder why people who are presumably in this for big, life-changing gains are spending so much energy focusing on such small little baby steps.

Sure, to achieve greater gains we have to get past all the points along that path, but why spend so much time and energy watching the paint dry?

If I'm going to hike to the top of a tall mountain I know I have to get out of the parking lot in order to achieve my goal. But I don't count each step through the parking lot and strategize what it's going to take to get out of the parking lot so I can take a selfie when I make it all the way to where the trail enters the forest. And I don't repeat that behavior all the way to the top of the mountain. When I break out of the forest and enter the alpine, I will reappraise the weather and how I'm doing in terms of time and energy relative to existing conditions. When I reach the first snowfield or steeper exposed section, I might take a snack break and reappraise my condition before continuing. But I don't wonder if each step I take might be the one that trips me up and makes me fall, I just proceed with normal awareness, sure of my ability to walk. I don't celebrate each and every step along the way as a victory, I assume I will make each step as long as I have correctly assessed the situation. If I fall, I will know it just as soon, regardless of whether I'm obsessing over every step.

The market is a messy, ugly place and is simply an unavoidable necessity to achieve investment objectives. I recommend investors avoid paying attention to the market whenever possible. It's not emotionally healthy or productive to dissect every little market reaction, even more so when the market reaction has nothing to do with your bigger investment goals. Watching your long-term investment climb with a magnifying glass obscures those larger goals. This kind of behavior is what causes the "sell" itch to become overwhelming as the price climbs higher. Because it makes the gains seem so fragile and so hard won. Because you doubted and/or obsessed over those gains every step of the way. Why were you paying such close attention to them to begin with if you didn't have serious doubts? The use of the magnifying glass on the way up only obscures the underlying dynamic, the actual growth of your investment and the performance of the underlying company. Also, celebrating every step requires that you experience some pain with every backslide.

None of that is healthy or productive, who needs it? I can tell you, when you get to the top of that figurative mountain, you will have a lot more energy remaining if you didn't doubt every step, if you just let it come naturally while making prudent and informed decisions at key points along the way. In other words, you will be better prepared to make good decisions as to how to handle your recent good fortune if you didn't spend an inordinate amount of time and energy over many years watching every messy and irrelevant detail of the process.

Investing should free the body, mind and spirit, not consume them. Otherwise, what's the point of having money if it leaves you worse off overall than if you didn't make it? The trick is to make the money without it extracting a toll upon you. I would suggest if you think you actually like the process of following the ticker minute by minute, if you think it makes you a more valuable or worthy human, or you think it will make you wealthier, you are probably mistaken.
FYI, I’m just driving my Cyber ATV up to the top. 🤷🏻
 
VIX opened today under 27 and has spent most of the day under 26. How do you interpret that?
Bullish... it is weakening

Didn't test 760 as early as I thought, but ended up testing. Just not quite enough to break through today, but the market as a whole was very strong today. The downside is volume wasn't real strong, but highest Nasdaq close since May 6th. To a level where 12.7-12.8 should be tested soon. I'd expect very strong resistance there and good chance at a rejection.
 
Maybe OT, but imo this car by BYD, which happens to have a lot of elements of Tesla, seems to be pretty damn good value compared to non Tesla alternatives:
  • Standard Range, RWD Elite:
    Price (post-subsidy): 212,800 CNY ($31,795)
    CLTC range: 550 km (342 miles)
    system output: 150 kW
  • Standard Range RWD Premium:
    Price (post-subsidy): 225,800 CNY ($33,738)
    CLTC range: 550 km (342 miles)
    system output: 150 kW
  • Long Range RWD:
    Price (post-subsidy): 262,800 CNY ($39,266)
    CLTC range: 700 km (435 miles)
    system output: 230 kW
  • Long Range AWD Performance:
    Price (post-subsidy): 289,800 CNY ($43,300)
    CLTC range: 650 km (404 miles)
    system output: 390 kW and 0-100 km/h (62 mph) acceleration in 3.8 seconds

Imo it’s time for VW, Toyota, GM etc start to feel an existential threat from Tesla, BYD and other Chinese automakers.
That is impressive for any maker.
 
Good point but my larger takeaway from these kind of discussions is only to wonder why people who are presumably in this for big, life-changing gains are spending so much energy focusing on such small little baby steps.

Sure, to achieve greater gains we have to get past all the points along that path, but why spend so much time and energy watching the paint dry?

If I'm going to hike to the top of a tall mountain I know I have to get out of the parking lot in order to achieve my goal. But I don't count each step through the parking lot and strategize what it's going to take to get out of the parking lot so I can take a selfie when I make it all the way to where the trail enters the forest. And I don't repeat that behavior all the way to the top of the mountain. When I break out of the forest and enter the alpine, I will reappraise the weather and how I'm doing in terms of time and energy relative to existing conditions. When I reach the first snowfield or steeper exposed section, I might take a snack break and reappraise my condition before continuing. But I don't wonder if each step I take might be the one that trips me up and makes me fall, I just proceed with normal awareness, sure of my ability to walk. I don't celebrate each and every step along the way as a victory, I assume I will make each step as long as I have correctly assessed the situation. If I fall, I will know it just as soon, regardless of whether I'm obsessing over every step.

The market is a messy, ugly place and is simply an unavoidable necessity to achieve investment objectives. I recommend investors avoid paying attention to the market whenever possible. It's not emotionally healthy or productive to dissect every little market reaction, even more so when the market reaction has nothing to do with your bigger investment goals. Watching your long-term investment climb with a magnifying glass obscures those larger goals. This kind of behavior is what causes the "sell" itch to become overwhelming as the price climbs higher. Because it makes the gains seem so fragile and so hard won. Because you doubted and/or obsessed over those gains every step of the way. Why were you paying such close attention to them to begin with if you didn't have serious doubts? The use of the magnifying glass on the way up only obscures the underlying dynamic, the actual growth of your investment and the performance of the underlying company. Also, celebrating every step requires that you experience some pain with every backslide.

None of that is healthy or productive, who needs it? I can tell you, when you get to the top of that figurative mountain, you will have a lot more energy remaining if you didn't doubt every step, if you just let it come naturally while making prudent and informed decisions at key points along the way. In other words, you will be better prepared to make good decisions as to how to handle your recent good fortune if you didn't spend an inordinate amount of time and energy over many years watching every messy and irrelevant detail of the process.

Investing should free the body, mind and spirit, not consume them. Otherwise, what's the point of having money if it leaves you worse off overall than if you didn't make it? The trick is to make the money without it extracting a toll upon you. I would suggest if you think you actually like the process of following the ticker minute by minute, if you think it makes you a more valuable or worthy human, or you think it will make you wealthier, you are probably mistaken.
TSLA is a random walk with an bias that exponentially increases over time.

Probably at least 90% of TSLA stock price discussion is nothing more than attempts to assign explanations and narratives to the random component.
 
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Good point but my larger takeaway from these kind of discussions is only to wonder why people who are presumably in this for big, life-changing gains are spending so much energy focusing on such small little baby steps.

Sure, to achieve greater gains we have to get past all the points along that path, but why spend so much time and energy watching the paint dry?

If I'm going to hike to the top of a tall mountain I know I have to get out of the parking lot in order to achieve my goal. But I don't count each step through the parking lot and strategize what it's going to take to get out of the parking lot so I can take a selfie when I make it all the way to where the trail enters the forest. And I don't repeat that behavior all the way to the top of the mountain. When I break out of the forest and enter the alpine, I will reappraise the weather and how I'm doing in terms of time and energy relative to existing conditions. When I reach the first snowfield or steeper exposed section, I might take a snack break and reappraise my condition before continuing. But I don't wonder if each step I take might be the one that trips me up and makes me fall, I just proceed with normal awareness, sure of my ability to walk. I don't celebrate each and every step along the way as a victory, I assume I will make each step as long as I have correctly assessed the situation. If I fall, I will know it just as soon, regardless of whether I'm obsessing over every step.

The market is a messy, ugly place and is simply an unavoidable necessity to achieve investment objectives. I recommend investors avoid paying attention to the market whenever possible. It's not emotionally healthy or productive to dissect every little market reaction, even more so when the market reaction has nothing to do with your bigger investment goals. Watching your long-term investment climb with a magnifying glass obscures those larger goals. This kind of behavior is what causes the "sell" itch to become overwhelming as the price climbs higher. Because it makes the gains seem so fragile and so hard won. Because you doubted and/or obsessed over those gains every step of the way. Why were you paying such close attention to them to begin with if you didn't have serious doubts? The use of the magnifying glass on the way up only obscures the underlying dynamic, the actual growth of your investment and the performance of the underlying company. Also, celebrating every step requires that you experience some pain with every backslide.

None of that is healthy or productive, who needs it? I can tell you, when you get to the top of that figurative mountain, you will have a lot more energy remaining if you didn't doubt every step, if you just let it come naturally while making prudent and informed decisions at key points along the way. In other words, you will be better prepared to make good decisions as to how to handle your recent good fortune if you didn't spend an inordinate amount of time and energy over many years watching every messy and irrelevant detail of the process.

Investing should free the body, mind and spirit, not consume them. Otherwise, what's the point of having money if it leaves you worse off overall than if you didn't make it? The trick is to make the money without it extracting a toll upon you. I would suggest if you think you actually like the process of following the ticker minute by minute, if you think it makes you a more valuable or worthy human, or you think it will make you wealthier, you are probably mistaken.
I think you read way too much into some examples of math/ compounding...
SmartSelect_20220527-162529_Firefox.jpg
 
There’s also an appreciable probability that some whales like Koguan or investment bankers have caught on to the value of this thread, and also a high probability that at least some major YouTubers lurk or participate here too
Several YouTube and Twitter "personalities" have reached out to me in the past.
Also, I often see some of my work in numbers put out by others, which I am fine with.
So I am confident that this thread is viewed by many lurkers.

Edit: I encourage the lurkers to sign up and contribute. You may think you have nothing important to add, but you'd be wrong. To think that @Gigapress lurked for years before contributing !
 
I don't think the drift in TSLA random walk is exponential, probably just linear with respect to time. I wish it were exponential though!
It appears more exponential than linear over the long run. With the trajectory of future profits also being exponential growth I would expect this kind of performance to continue (not advice).

367BA367-0406-492D-B067-43DA10A35E68.jpeg
 
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Most people still don't believe that ICE vehicles will stop being sold in a few years.
Just this fact alone is what makes me confident in holding Tesla.

Most people are still valuing Tesla based on the idea that the auto market will be 30-60% ICE in 2030. That's just not the way markets work. People weren't buying flip phones 5 years after the iPhone came out.

ICE vehicle sales are going to crash hard way before 2030. As Tesla and legit EV competition stabilize prices and start bringing them down, nobody will want to buy ICE. Gas prices are going to get unstable as gas infrastructure investment collapses.

It's very hard to see GM & crew keeping up with the pace of change which is coming down the pike. Tesla is going to keep pre-selling every car they can possibly push out the door until 2030 or longer.

Robotaxi, Optimus, Tesla Energy... all potentially huge are just bonus potential.
 
I think you read way too much into some examples of math/ compounding...
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I was commenting on the underlying discussion, not on your factual correction. Getting back to the ATH is, IMO, a given. I don't know of anyone who would sell there unless the execution of Tesla takes a major turn for the worse. Which I think is about as likely as Bill Gates ever being a likeable guy.