"We have free night-time electricity rates?"
Tell us more, could be a great fit in many areas!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tell us more, could be a great fit in many areas!
I now picture you all in your underwear.
Sorry, guess I'm helping to make your point.
Seriously, I agree but I must also say I appreciate much of the banter on this forum. I view my time here as both educational as well as entertaining. Other than the way off-topic posts and the rabbit holes some discussions follow, I'm happy to skim through all posts.
Yes, if you listen to Elon himself (now why would anyone do that?), when he was asked about other EV manufacturers, he basically said the only ones he respects are VW and various Chinese manufacturers, of which BYD is one of the strongest.
The playing field is now set. The race is on to see how good the various large EV manufacturers will be on creating worldwide battery cell supply chains, because that is the obvious bottleneck for the next ten years (semiconductors and other items are very temporary). Whoever can buy and/or manufacture the most batteries, sells the most cars. Simple as that.
Incidentally, China is not necessarily going to be the economic juggernaut people think it will be. They are going to run into a brick wall of a rapidly ageing demographic, rising wages, scarce oil and gas supplies, and a political system that doesn't respond to change very well. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a major announcement of a Tesla factory in Indonesia - at the very least, a major battery factory. The next series of factories will presumably be announced in the next year or so.
You might want to forward these recommendations to Rob Maurer and see if he can implement them in his new website.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Thanks for this, @ZeApelido .Sounds like time for a poll!
Private link, anonymous answers.
How much do you have invested in TSLA?
How much $ do you have invested in TSLA? - Online Poll - StrawPoll
What's your opinion? Vote now: < 1 million, 1 - 2 million, 2 - 4 million, 4 - 8 million, 8 - 16 million, > 16 million...strawpoll.com
Back in Nov 2021, I ran a more extensive TSLA investors' poll, asking for # of shares (to preserve anonymity) instead of total $ of investment (which is dependent on the SP).
We got 346 unique responses back then, about twice this poll's current sample size. The poll had a share range up to a max of "25,000+ shares" (or $19,000,000+ at today's SP)
- 15 members (4.2%) indicated they had 25,000+ shares (=$19+ M in TSLA today)
- The average # of shares (based on splitting the range options ) was 5,600 or $4.3 M at today's SP.
- The rough total investment, based on picking the midpoint in the range options and using 30,000 for those in the "25,000+" category, was that 346 investors owned a total of $1.4 B of TSLA (a bit less than 2%). Of course, if any of those 25,000+ people were Uncle Leo or some other whale, the estimated average is WAY off!
Hope this helps.
PS Here's the primary chart I developed updated with the latest results (I'm visual). The raw summary generated by Google Forms is pretty interesting too:
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It might be helpful if there was a reaction (hidden by the "Like" button) to indicate something which doesn't belong on the thread. I've seen some people use the
reaction and that works, but it would be nice if there were a separate one so we could use the to mean I disagree with you and the OT/ Low Quality button to tell people to move it to another thread. I'm fairly new on this thread so sometimes I drift OT or less often (I like to think) Low Quality posts.
Maybe a couple little "Bye Bye"
waving hands on people's posts would make folks understand that it's not just the folks actually complaining who are bothered by their OT/ LQ chatter.I agree, there is lots to be done with efficiency and these high prices enhance those incentives. SA and the entire middle east will almost assuredly see increases in demand for cooling. Ironically that could largely be met with solar.
Sounds like time for a poll!
Private link, anonymous answers.
How much do you have invested in TSLA?
How much $ do you have invested in TSLA? - Online Poll - StrawPoll
What's your opinion? Vote now: < 1 million, 1 - 2 million, 2 - 4 million, 4 - 8 million, 8 - 16 million, > 16 million...
Why is my poll in Spanish?
Whenever - whenEVER - I find a post that is noteworthy, and another participant has not already enunciated that which I find commendable, I comment on it. I do not use lazy tags like “Like!” “Funny!””Disagree” and so forth - mindless drivel that is Twitterworthy. Nor - as already bombed into submission by another Mod - a “+1” and so forth.
Now, @Gigapress is correct in that there are many frustrations with this platform. The administrators are aware not only of most or all of them, but a myriad of other glitches and hair-pullers to which only they are privy.
Two solutions that immediately come to mind regarding the points he brought up:
1. ”…more than half the space of a short comment”. Well, find more to write about - high quality writing, of course - thereby increasing the numerator. As Gertrude Stein told Hemingway “Remarks are not literature”.
2. Stop using those lazy-tag icons. SAY what it is with which you disagree.
Now, @Gigapress is correct in that there are many frustrations with this platform. The administrators are aware not only of most or all of them, but a myriad of other glitches and hair-pullers to which only they are privy.
Two solutions that immediately come to mind regarding the points he brought up:
1. ”…more than half the space of a short comment”. Well, find more to write about - high quality writing, of course - thereby increasing the numerator. As Gertrude Stein told Hemingway “Remarks are not literature”.
2. Stop using those lazy-tag icons. SAY what it is with which you disagree.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
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My second of two comments regarding # of shares poll:
I would be fascinated as to how another poster “knows” no one answered dishonestly to his poll. Mesmerized, in fact.
I know enough about enough of this group’s large holders to have an excellent idea how many have participated in prior such quests, and a very good idea how they may respond in the future. As I wrote: Not At All.
To me, then, these attempts are fatally flawed from the outset. But leaving all that aside, what useful purpose does it accomplish?
I would be fascinated as to how another poster “knows” no one answered dishonestly to his poll. Mesmerized, in fact.
I know enough about enough of this group’s large holders to have an excellent idea how many have participated in prior such quests, and a very good idea how they may respond in the future. As I wrote: Not At All.
To me, then, these attempts are fatally flawed from the outset. But leaving all that aside, what useful purpose does it accomplish?
It just gives us something to do while we are bored waiting for Tuesday.
Margin calls become problematic when you buy 1000 shares of RIVN at $170 and your broker let you buy 1000 shares on margin. By the time it collapses -80% to $30 you are forced to liquidate 1900 shares and then you have 100 shares left when the climb starts back slowly.
Buying TSLA on margin even at ATH, since it is a incredible company, the 50% collapse will leave you with less shares but not as bad at buy terrible stock on margin. There are probably many wallstreebetters who got destroyed by the last sell off who were on heavy margin with non profitable companies stocks. It must be hard to start back with 10% of a portfolio when the recovery happens.
I see. So you think you’re better than me.
Someone sat on the remote and accidentally hit the SAP button.
Elon saying that he estimates Gates' short position is now probably $1.5 - $2B. We'll have to create a new bracket to try to ferret him out in the next poll.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Yeah, the key reason I am comfortable with full margin right now is that I think there’s almost 100% probability that Tesla’s earnings in the next two years just on car hardware with the existing, proven S3XY lineup + Cybertruck will be a profound wake-up call for the market, so I have exploited the drop to load up on LEAPS. My earnings estimates for 2023 and 2024 are more than triple Wall Street’s.
I expect Q2 ‘24 to have around 1M vehicle deliveries after Shanghai, Berlin and Austin have had two years to ramp. Cybertruck, Roadster and next-gen Ys will have incredible margins.
Company-wide gross profit per vehicle will be $20-25k, up from $17k last quarter. It sounds crazy but the trend is obvious if you look at the financials with ZEV credits excluded to show core profitability:
| Gross Profit per Vehicle | Gross Margin | OpEx as Percentage of Gross Profit | |
| Q1 2021 | $ 10.1 | 22.0% | 87% |
| Q2 2021 | $ 12.6 | 25.8% | 62% |
| Q3 2021 | $ 14.1 | 28.8% | 49% |
| Q4 2021 | $ 14.8 | 29.2% | 49% |
| Q1 2022 | $ 15.7 | 30.0% | 38% |
ZEV credits usually add about $1k bonus per car on average.
With rising demand, improving mix and predictable cost reductions on the horizon it is reasonable to expect the margin improvements to continue if not accelerate. Tesla has been posting these results with one hand tied behind its back and none of the benefits of the new factories in a time when the entire car industry is going down in flames.
Simple linear extrapolation using the average increase of $1.4k per quarter across 8 quarters is $11.2k increase expected which goes to $15.7k + $1k ZEV + $11.2k = ~$28k gross profit per car by Q2 ‘24. If the trend accelerates from its rate in the last 5 quarters, gross profit per car could tickle $30k. High-trim Cybertrucks, refreshed S&X, new model Ys, and more Shanghai could easily drown out lower-margin sales on Model 3 and Fremont Y. For instance: if you sell a Berlin Y for $70k and it costs $38k to make, that’s $32k gross profit. Sell a quad-motor Cybertruck for $90k at $50k cost, that’s $40k profit.
Let’s go with the original more conservative estimates of the profit trend slowing down:
- 1M cars * $20-25k gross profit = $20-25B gross auto profit in one quarter
- $80-100B annualized
- Net income of ~$50-75 per share annualized and still growing fast!
For my current trading strategy, this is where LEAPS come in. LEAPS above $1500 have dropped like 20x while the stock has only dropped 0.5x. If and when the stock price goes back up I’ll have far more portfolio value when it returns to ATH than I had originally and then it can go to Mars if we blow past $3,000.
For example, a 16 Jun 2023 $1800 call is going for $28 right now. TSLA at $2000 is a 5th percentile outcome in my opinion by the expiration date, which would give 6x ROI for that option, more than double the stock gains. $3000 is my 50th percentile guess for a whopping 42x ROI, 10x better than the stock.
This is just my thoughts, not investment advice.
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thesmokingman
Active Member
Bill's still a punk. I wonder if ppl have forgotten how much of a douche he was back in his prime. Don't let the gray hair fool ya.
Young Bill Gates Was an Angry Office Bully
He looked for a chance in every meeting to yell at his employees.
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