Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

with the advice I've gained and the friends I've made here.

The 'friends' thing only applies when $TSLA is on a bull run...when it's going down...everyone on TMC hates each other and consider each other 'enemies'

 

[Tim S]

Whenever - whenEVER - I find a post that is noteworthy, and another participant has not already enunciated that which I find commendable, I comment on it. I do not use lazy tags like “Like!” “Funny!””Disagree” and so forth - mindless drivel that is Twitterworthy. Nor - as already bombed into submission by another Mod - a “+1” and so forth.

Now, @Gigapress is correct in that there are many frustrations with this platform. The administrators are aware not only of most or all of them, but a myriad of other glitches and hair-pullers to which only they are privy.

Two solutions that immediately come to mind regarding the points he brought up:

1. ”…more than half the space of a short comment”. Well, find more to write about - high quality writing, of course - thereby increasing the numerator. As Gertrude Stein told Hemingway “Remarks are not literature”.

2. Stop using those lazy-tag icons. SAY what it is with which you disagree.

Since you asked, I will explain my disagree... we certainly do not need more and longer comments on here. There are already too many. That is the purpose of the tags.

 

[Discoducky]

By far the most annoying thing about arguing valuation is the “Tesla is a auto maker” as an excuse.

Take away all labels and just look at gross margin, operating margin, net income, revenue/earnings growth, etc…. And I guarantee you most people wouldn’t be able to distinguish Tesla from Nvidia or Apple or AMD.

In fact….that’s how I usually finish the debate with someone that questions Tesla’s valuatio. It never, and I mean never, fails to stump the person

Agreed. I worked with nVidia for nearly my entire career and Tesla has not only a better lead on competition but are in a whole other league...So, my prediction is that Tesla will eventually enjoy as much or more market share of Transportation like nVidia owns GPU compute.

Quiz time, how much market share would Tesla need to look like nVidia?

Spoiler: Nvidia market share

Intel & AMD GPU Shipments Decreased In Q3 2021, NVIDIA Sees 8% Increase In GPU Market Share & Retains Discrete GPU Share Leadership

The monthly GPU market share report from JPR (Jon Peddie Research) is out and shows NVIDIA retaining its lead over Intel and AMD.

wccftech.com

And if Tesla had that market share, about how many cars would Tesla need to sell per year?

Spoiler: Global yearly auto sales

Global car sales 2010-2021 | Statista

The global auto industry expects to sell 69.8 million automobiles in 2021, an increase of nearly 10 percent year-on-year.

www.statista.com

Spoiler: Answer

~83% of ~67M = ~55M

I'll let someone else calc the shareprice based on a PE ratio

 

[Buckminster]

Chuck got his car back. 10.12.1 refusing to take unprotected lefts. Positive spin:- it knows that it is a tricky manoeuvre and is doing the right thing by avoiding it.

 

[dl003]

Fixed that for you. Macro forces, yeah! People who believe in TA can come up with reasons for everything.

No, no it doesn't. You have what you have, not what you might once have had. But I'm sure the pollster took into account that many people would be lying about how much they own.

After the split maybe.

Why the animosity toward TA? Some of us actually know what the chart says. For the records, I called the bottom on Tuesday before a 140 point rally

I'm calling the bottom right here.

View attachment 808429

Yes, that's right. 4 resistance trendlines (2021 one hasn't acted as a resistance, though) with the same slope. I can't see us dipping back into the previous channel with everything going right for the company.

And the rally to 750 today? Who could have guessed?

 

[thesmokingman]

Quiz time, how much market share would Tesla need to look like nVidia?

Spoiler: Nvidia market share

Intel & AMD GPU Shipments Decreased In Q3 2021, NVIDIA Sees 8% Increase In GPU Market Share & Retains Discrete GPU Share Leadership

The monthly GPU market share report from JPR (Jon Peddie Research) is out and shows NVIDIA retaining its lead over Intel and AMD.

wccftech.com

Jokingly, I put a lot of that market share loss on Hector Ruiz and then later Raja Koduri.

 

[PeterJA]

Have you somehow forgotten about Elon time?

No, but I somehow saw him meet with the Presidents of Indonesia and Brazil. This year is less than half over.

 

[Discoducky]

The average price of gas is heading down! It's down $0.001 off it's peak! Demand for EVs will most likely start tanking! Run to the hills! /s

 

[AudubonB]

It just gives us something to do while we are bored waiting for Tuesday.

Oh.
Okay.
I’ll see your 20,000 shares and 100 September 1100 calls, and raise you 30,000 sh + 9,000 LEAPS.

Still bored?

 

[CLK350]

There are many, MANY early examples out there showing a younger Elon Musk doing his best to educate the public as well as governmental bodies large and small, in regards to renewable energy possibilities and changing the way things have always been done. He has paid his dues more than any human being I can think of, towards making this world a better place. History will show him to be THE foremost thinker of our times BAR NONE. And the legacy powers that stand in his way are of greater magnitude and immovability than anyone has ever faced. But ever onwards he moves, with his intentions of changing things for the better. So much Respect.

The best explanation about global warming Elon did was IMHO at this 2015 talk* -(or search YouTube for "Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne") -with this graphic explanation Elon aptly calls "the turd in the punchbowl", how introducing huge amounts of carbon extracted from underground completely upset the CO2 balance that had existed for millenia on earth. And what governments need to do in order to facilitate the transition to sustainable energy. What of course no government has done so far (correct me if I am wrong), which is to price the externality, put a proper price on carbon. Thus removing the hidden Trillion $ subsidy for fossil fuels.

Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne 2015 - Conversation avec Elon Musk à Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne 2015 Conversation avec Elon Musk à Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne


(*) altho now that I think about it, it may not be understood by some (considering my experience talkgin with run of the mill folks, some, like literary types do have a problem understanding concepts however obvious they seem to more science aware folks).

 

[Artful Dodger]

The average price of gas is heading down! It's down $0.001 off it's peak! Demand for EVs will most likely start tanking! Run to the hills! /s

View attachment 809684

Here's the fuel prices at Saskatchewan Crossing, on the Icefields Parkway between Jasper and Banff on May 15th:

These prices are in Cdn $ per Liter, so in US units, gas prices were:

• REGULAR: USD $6.84 / US gal
• MID-GRADE: USD $6.96 / US gal
• PREMIUM: USD $7.17 / US gal

But right around the corner from those gas pumps were two 'free-to-the-public' Tesla Destination Chargers. Ironically, the entire site is powered by a diesel generator. But even then, a Tesla is still cleaner than burning fuel in an ICE car.

Cleaner, and better looking too!

Cheers!

 

[lascavarian]

Words here have a lot more leverage than it would seem.

One cautionary viewpoint might be that where words are powerful scammers will be attracted.

We have moderation and room for good ideas to bubble up.

Disruption is messy work and some community adds reassurance.

But moderation is the key to decent signal to noise value.

 

[Todd Burch]

Some people recently asked what Tesla is going to do with all its cash. Some proposed a stock buyback.

I think right now they are mostly accumulating a safety buffer of extra cash for insurance in case of an economic downturn. But once that buffer increases a bit more, I think they’ll reinvest profits into these things:

1. More factories.

2. Continued battery research (small piece, admittedly).

3. Solar and storage for as many Superchargers as possible, as has been the plan for about a decade (but still is only implemented in a few places).

4. Continued Supercharger rollout.

5. Self-funding for insurance and financing arms.

6. R&D and investment in mining so Tesla can increase access to raw battery materials and accelerate production.

Any or all of the above uses of cash would have positive returns on investment, advance the mission, and serve as a revenue multiplier, which is why a stock buyback, in my opinion, would not be the best use of money.

Tesla still has a LOT of things they can wisely spend a lot of their money on.

 

[Brn2Run]

The best explanation about global warming Elon did was IMHO at this 2015 talk* -(or search YouTube for "Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne") -with this graphic explanation Elon aptly calls "the turd in the punchbowl", how introducing huge amounts of carbon extracted from underground completely upset the CO2 balance that had existed for millenia on earth. And what governments need to do in order to facilitate the transition to sustainable energy. What of course no government has done so far (correct me if I am wrong), which is to price the externality, put a proper price on carbon. Thus removing the hidden Trillion $ subsidy for fossil fuels.

Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne 2015 - Conversation avec Elon Musk à Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

View attachment 809699
Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne 2015 Conversation avec Elon Musk à Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne


(*) altho now that I think about it, it may not be understood by some (considering my experience talkgin with run of the mill folks, some, like literary types do have a problem understanding concepts however obvious they seem to more science aware folks).

I think many countries have high taxes on fossil fuels, In Norway 1 litre diesel is about 2.2 euros now, maybe 10% more for gasoline.

ICE cars have 25% tax, EVs have 0%.

 

[lascavarian]

But wait, Keller actually lands at Tesla after the Zen cpu, and helps Tesla with their Neural Network design after which headed to Intel for a brief stint.

Although Lex seems to be falling captive to the YouTube audience mirage lately, his interview with Keller was epic.

I would not be surprised if his matrix math design ends up in FSD rev 4 in some fashion.

Thanks for bringing him up.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I read just about everything posted on here and have for years, none of it affects my Tesla position,

I am holding it for my kids. I can't be the only one. I read everything on here because I believe it's a mission.

I have read an interesting book recently Entitlemania from Richard Watts. Leaving a big lump slump to financial unprepared kids might be a generation destroying event. He was comparing to opening a dam for habitants living down the stream near the river. Kids might lose intrinsic motivation for work and extrinsic motivation to succeed to accomplish their own successful careers or companies because they don’t need to do so anymore. The author tells about one of his clients who set up a thrust fund that kids can only access at 60 years old and receive the equivalent of the annual average of their 3 last years of work. This was the inherited money doesn’t destroy their motivation to live their own life, learn from their mistake and create successful stories of their own to be proud of their life achievements. The pride of paying yourself cash for your first car,
House or any luxury item is not transferable. Kids have to work their way out in life to be proud of what they own or have achieved. Interesting concepts he is visiting throughout his book.

 

[lascavarian]

Chuck got his car back. 10.12.1 refusing to take unprotected lefts. Positive spin:- it knows that it is a tricky manoeuvre and is doing the right thing by avoiding it.

Being less wrong???

What if one day FSD NN decides that unprotected lefts are not probalistically a viable option. One giant leap for humanity!

 

[Todd Burch]

Chuck Cook’s initial 10.12.1 ride was not good at all. Almost seems like his car needed a reboot.

10.12.2 is going wider now though, and it supposedly fixes the “take over immediately” issue Chuck was having (hopefully the turn right only bug too, which has returned from previous versions).

FSD Beta 10.12

 

[heltok]

Being less wrong???

What if one day FSD NN decides that unprotected lefts are not probalistically a viable option. One giant leap for humanity!

To be fair, that left turn is not safe for anyone and should be remade. And America should learn from Europeans that roundabouts are better than intersections:

When Tesla does navigation routing they have a cost function and search for the traversal with the lowest lost score using some algorithm(like Astar). Imo Tesla should use their neural network to map all complex intersections and score how hard they are(for the FSD) and add this to the cost function when they select a navigation route and find a better route when needed. It’s okay to be able to drive 99.99% of all routes safely and just reroute the rest. As their system improves, they can calculate risk with better certainty, they increase the aggressiveness of the acceleration etc they recalcuate the intersections and drive more of these very hard left turns. And also they can send a report to the traffic authorities that their intersections are not safe.

 

[nativewolf]

To be fair, that left turn is not safe for anyone and should be remade. And America should learn from Europeans that roundabouts are better than intersections:

When Tesla does navigation routing they have a cost function and search for the traversal with the lowest lost score using some algorithm(like Astar). Imo Tesla should use their neural network to map all complex intersections and score how hard they are(for the FSD) and add this to the cost function when they select a navigation route and find a better route when needed. It’s okay to be able to drive 99.99% of all routes safely and just reroute the rest. As their system improves, they can calculate risk with better certainty, they increase the aggressiveness of the acceleration etc they recalcuate the intersections and drive more of these very hard left turns. And also they can send a report to the traffic authorities that their intersections are not safe.

We have quite a few and they are gaining advocates in the various state DOTs.