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Very easy to find FSD accidents.
From your link:
"This could very well be the first documented case of something like this happening and also resulting in an actual accident."
and
"This may also be the very first known accident in the FSD program, and it is definitely the first of this type."

It would follow that it is not actually "very easy to find FSD accidents".

I downvote most of your comments, because you can be relied on to only be scrambling after the negative viewpoint. Because your motive is suspect, I am always doubtful of your veracity.
 
With that being said our HOA will never approve a solar roof as everyone around me gets tile. Also I'm at a golf ball drop zone.
Not sure where you are but i used to think getting a solar roof is no go here in my HOA.
This neighborhood has all Mediterranean tiles roof and a few houses here got solar panels.
When I propose my solar roof, the HOA made me jump through hoops. I have to get approvals from my next door neighbors and the MUD district who maintains the lake.
We did all that and they denied because the black roof is not consistent with the look of the neighborhood.
I told them I will appeal and contact some HOA attorneys to assist.
A few days later, HOA emailed me that they reversed their decision.
Never take a no from them if your state has a solar right.
 
Not sure where you are but i used to think getting a solar roof is no go here in my HOA.
Never take a no from them if your state has a solar right.
I’m pretty sure he’s in Florida and we have an incredibly strong state law that bans HOAs from denying solar collectors or energy devices.
Florida Statute 163.04(2) provides a declaration or deed restriction "may not prohibit or have the effect of prohibiting solar collectors, clotheslines, or other energy devices based on renewable resources from being installed on buildings erected on the lots or parcels covered by the deed restriction, covenant, declaration, or binding agreement."
Solar roofs would be covered under "other energy devices" and the HOA could not deny them. An application is still required.
 
Your first statement is incorrect. But even if it were true, there's only been no accidents because a human driver is needed to monitor and intervene.

You are making a definitive based on faulty assumptions. There's simply no way to compare the safety of FSD to a human driver unless you just let FSD run unsupervised and uninterrupted.
Since it’s frowned upon not to explain a disagree, and far be it from me to be both lazy AND not comply with moderator wishes, so I’m going to explain my disagree.

You’re doing that which you claimed the poster was doing; making a definitive based on faulty assumptions.

But even more so, you got the disagree and will continue to get more because your agenda here (on this forum) has been suspect from the start, imo.
 
If there is a frustration on my part with that talk, it is that we knew precisely everything presented therein during early 1980s graduate school, and all of the concepts plus much of the details in undergrad in the late 1970s. That was a dozen - or even more! - years ago.

How anyone could provide a “Disagree” to your post is mind-boggling, unless it is because someone sensed condescension toward “literary types”, or calling others “run of the mill”. Eggshell-walking in this forum sometimes is good advice. But it also shows why I am strident in my calls NOT TO USE that downward thumb icon! Without a real post, no one knows why another finds disagreement with his posting.

What if pressing the Thumb's Down icon immediately opened up a Reply to the post?

If the disagree-er doesn't offer a reply, their disagree goes away.

In a perfect world ...
 
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Very easy to find FSD accidents.
That was the sole alleged incident so far and it was based on a unsubstantiated, poorly-written claim from an anonymous source that the manual input was overridden by FSD computer control, which should have been your first clue that the event description was extremely suspect.

So no, it is not “very easy to find [human-supervised] FSD [Beta] accidents”.

You know what else is hard to find? A good reason why the mods haven’t banned your troll account yet.
 
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Zero accidents thus far has demonstrated that human-supervised FSD Beta is at least 500x safer than the average human, conservatively assuming the average beta tester has done only 1k miles on Beta since most testers were added recently.

If you want to estimate 5k miles per tester thus far, the safety is then at least 2500x safer than the average human.

I need to say “at least”, because:
  • With zero crashes we can only have a one-sided confidence interval for the true probability of collisions
    • E.g. Collision probability of 1 in a billion miles and in 1 in a trillion miles both would likely have shown zero accidents in a 100M mile sample.
  • FSD Beta has been significantly improving over the time the sample was collected, so we’re estimating a moving target which moves because of the same process that generates the measurement data.

If each one of the 100k FSD Beta drivers has averaged at least 2 miles on Beta and if Beta were truly more dangerous than human driving, we’d expect to have seen a crash by now. If it’s soooo dangerous, where are all the injuries and deaths?

This is hard, indisputable evidence that these safety criticisms have no basis in reality and whoever publishes them either has no idea how to do basic statistics or has a malicious agenda.

Unfortunately, there are many people who don’t know basic statistics (or at least forget to think about them when confronted with emotionally-triggering anecdotes) and the smart malicious people are well aware of this fact.
Regulators dont care about numbers and statistics coming FROM Tesla, about Tesla.
 
Regulators dont care about numbers and statistics coming FROM Tesla, about Tesla.
Yes, they do. If all else fails, Tesla can show billions of miles of driving data without safety interventions and without crashes and then NHTSA would have to somehow justify why a system that’s like 10,000x safer than a human should be banned.

Even if NHTSA somehow still wants to block it despite growing support from voters to allow FSD, it only takes one other country in the world to allow Tesla to do it to benefit their citizens and their economy for the dominoes to start falling. In our connected global world, revolutionary technology like this can’t be contained and suppressed for long unless some worldwide regulatory conspiracy somehow arises.

In America the NTSB handles the incident investigation, dramatic complaining, mudslinging and political theater and the NHTSA does the regulating. Guess which of these two organizations is the one slowing down Tesla and is complaining about the other not doing enough to stop Tesla?


Furthermore, the numbers I used for estimation did not come from Tesla. There have been no documented collisions, we know there’s 100k+ people with Beta and it’s easy to make a rough guess about miles travelled.
 
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People don't understand the scale of 100k beta testers not having any major accidents to date.

Waymo alone had 18 accidents in 20 months with "professional drivers.


There are 1400 self driving test cars total in the US spanning from 62 companies.


Assuming self driving cars professional are being tested 12hrs a day x 1400 cars = 16800 test hours a day on predetermined routes going around in circles over and over.

Tesla's 100k tests, Assuming being tested 1hr a day is being tested 100k hours a day on random roads with zero accident every day.

So just think about the fact that for every one day Tesla is piloting with 100k users, it's 5x more than all companies combined when it comes to risk, not even mentioning that this is random roads and not roads on rails.

And we know it has been at least 3 months at 100k. This is equivalents to 17 months of the entire industry still without accident. Waymo had 18 accidents in 20 months with much less test hours. In fact Tesla has blown waymos test hours of 20 months in a matter of 2 weeks from 100k users.

Didnt Elon say the target was 100k end of year?

I dont believe they will make that, not even close. But thats just me.

As for numbers when it comes to testing safety, it has to be done by a neutral 3rd party.

Would you have believed it if Cruise came out with a lot better results than Tesla?
 
Yes, they do. If all else fails, Tesla can show billions of miles of driving data without safety interventions and without crashes and then NHTSA would have to somehow justify why a system that’s like 10,000x safer than a human should be banned.

Even if NHTSA somehow still wants to block it despite growing support from voters to allow FSD, it only takes one other country in the world to allow Tesla to do it to benefit their citizens and their economy for the dominoes to start falling. In a connected global world, revolutionary technology like this can’t be contained and suppressed for long unless some worldwide regulatory conspiracy somehow arises.

In America the NTSB handles the incident investigation, dramatic complaining, mudslinging and political theater and the NHTSA does the regulating. Guess which of these two organizations is the one slowing down Tesla and is complaining about the other not regulating Tesla enough?


Furthermore, the numbers I used for estimation did not come from Tesla. There have been no documented collisions, we know there’s 100k+ people with Beta and it’s easy to make a rough guess about miles travelled.
Lets face it, Tesla can show what Elon Musk wants Tesla to show. No one at NHTSA cares.
 
Didnt Elon say the target was 100k end of year?
No, he said there’s already more than 100k now. The target is nationwide release to everyone with FSD by the end of the year, and hopefully in Canada too.

As for numbers when it comes to testing safety, it has to be done by a neutral 3rd party.

Lets face it, Tesla can show what Elon Musk wants Tesla to show. No one at NHTSA cares.
No, that’s completely false. Here’s NHTSA’s ADAS reporting policy. I used to work in Quality for Boeing Commercial Airplanes and it’s pretty much the same with the FAA. Companies have legally-mandated data collection systems and procedures, and they have to produce objective evidence demonstrating regulatory compliance during occasional audits. As far as I know, this is the Federal Goverment’s standard approach for safety regulation. If it’s good enough for aerospace safety (which has the 2nd-highest stringency after food & drugs) then I’m sure it’s good enough for automotive safety.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety

NHTSA Orders Crash Reporting for Vehicles Equipped with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems and Automated Driving Systems | NHTSA


In 2021, NHTSA issued a Standing General Order that requires manufacturers and operators of automated driving systems and SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems equipped vehicles to report crashes to the agency.
In 2020, NHTSA launched Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing. As part of the AV TEST initiative, states and companies can voluntarily submit information about testing of automated driving systems to NHTSA, and the public can view the information using NHTSA’s interactive tool.
Mods, can we please put the trolls in timeout? This is getting out of hand.
 
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No, he said there’s already more than 100k now.

No, that’s completely false.

Here’s NHTSA’s policy:


In 2021, NHTSA issued a Standing General Order that requires manufacturers and operators of automated driving systems and SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems equipped vehicles to report crashes to the agency.
In 2020, NHTSA launched Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing. As part of the AV TEST initiative, states and companies can voluntarily submit information about testing of automated driving systems to NHTSA, and the public can view the information using NHTSA’s interactive tool.
Mods, can we please put the trolls in timeout? This is getting out of hand.

More than 100k can not be right.

How many cars have tesla sold in the US since 2016? 700k? 800k? Has every 7 or 8 Tesla owner you know, FSD Beta?

Cut that troll comment kid, just as soon as not everyone wants to join your congregation.

Do not trust Tesla blindly. Blind faith in anything, can be dangerous.
 
I’m not going to explain each disagree. That’s a ridiculous idea. I think most disagrees will be for obvious reasons. If you disagree with this, then I disagree with you, for disagreeing with this.
@Gigapress’s post immediately prior to yours is an excellent example of an appropriate response to a likely scurrilous post. On the other hand, every single “response” to the aforesaid post that was, in entirety, a “Disagree”, could justifiably be considered as nothing more elucidating than a potential “Oh! That does not fit with my perfect vision of the world of Tesla, so I’m going to downvote it!”.
Is that fair? No, it probably is not. But without Discourse, without a reasoned counter, such posts are either as meaningless, as useless, as damaging to the mission, or more so, than the objected post itself.
 
More than 100k can not be right.

How many cars have tesla sold in the US since 2016? 700k? 800k? Has every 7 or 8 Tesla owner you know, FSD Beta?

Cut that troll comment kid, just as soon as not everyone wants to join your congregation.

Do not trust Tesla blindly. Blind faith in anything, can be dangerous.

According to GoodCarBadCar, Tesla has sold about 1.4 million cars in the US since 2016. 100,000 is 7 percent of that fleet.

It seems plausible to me.


Bye now 👋