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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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These points are important factors, but consider that human-supervised FSD Beta is approaching commercial aviation levels of safety. We are talking about a 1000x difference from average.

The program has 100k drivers, which as @Singuy estimated is around 7% of Tesla’s entire American customer base. I would guess that around a third of them are in the LA and SF areas, where collision rates are much higher than the US average. In these locations maintaining a big following distance is almost impossible because of aggressive, opportunistic drivers who will take that as an invitation to cut in.

Is 7% of Tesla’s owner pool elite drivers who can match the safety of commercial aviation all by themselves simply by picking the right routes and exercising the normal level of caution they previously had before becoming a Beta tester? I highly doubt it.
I am sure it is helping ...I just wonder how much vs the drivers with similar driving characteristics and same cars on same routes. I bet you see a dramatic decrease. Then I'd be interested in seeing the percent of dangerous accidents avoided, how many with serious physical harm? Because frankly a fender bender below 15mph is a commercial issue and shouldn't result in human injury. What we really want to see is real safety..deaths avoided and serious injury avoided. I am sure it's helping. I am curious how much. My basic feeling on this is that there is a 90/10 rule. 10% of the drivers are causing 90% of the issues and further that 90% of the accident avoidance is simply done via very safe Tesla AP type safety features.
 
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Correct. I liked it better the other way.
Me too. Especially because most Tesla owners today don't even know there is such a thing as sharing. On my last major road trip (about 9 months ago), three times I had others plug in and pair with my already charging car dropping ~ 30kW off my rate even though there were multiple non-paired stalls available. Very, very annoying this new behavior.
 
This. How much slack are we to give accounts which are clearly trolling/shilling/knowingly passing BS along as fact?

The once promising Model3OwnersClub.com (renamed TeslaOwnersClub) when the Model Y was announced) was decimated by giving free reign to trolls posing as disgruntled customers. It made the forum a real depressing place. As long as they sounded personable on the surface, they were allowed to spread BS at will and a forum that should have been growing at a phenomenal rate and become very valuable, shriveled up and turned into a ghost town.

TMC does a better job of getting rid of trolls that offer no value which is why I baffled about some of the most obvious ones still being members.
 
I drove past a VW dealership in rural Greece last weekend. The front of the dealer had huge ID3 banners. There were rather a large number in their yard, gathering dust, plus the ones in the showroom, clean.

Funny thing is I see an ever-increasing number of Teslas on the roads here. Mostly MYPs, some 3s, some S and X. This is way out of the area where there is Tesla Supercharger coverage (nearest one about 3-4 hours away). I talk about this with my friends (who are longstanding residents here) who have an interest in both investing and n EVs. We are all seeing and saying the same thing, which is that it is rare to see a non-Tesla BEV. So rare that we comment to each other about when we see an ID3 actually on the road, or another non-Tesla BEV. There just aren't that many ID3 being bought by real customers.

I drive east-west across Europe (about 2,000-miles) from UK to Greece and back from time to time. What I see here in Greece is a representative anecdote about the evidence I see on that entire road-trip transect.

There's a lot of "channel-stuffing" going on in VW-dealer-land imho. And it ain't working because they buyers want a Tesla.
I believe EV buyers are probably the most sophisticated bunch, so why would one buys a second-rated product!
 
Major fall last week on freight shipping index, average now under 8k which hasn't happened since July 2021. Biggest mover is China East Asia to North America West falling 16% in one week.

 
I agree that battery swapping seems like an overkill solution when we have fast chargers, but its not entirely crazy. Firstly, there are people out there who kid themselves that they need to 'fill up' in under 5 minutes or the world will end. Having that option (even if in practice they never use it) might tip some people over to hit buy.

Secondly, the advantage of battery swap stations is you can trickle-charge the batteries when not in use. That means that the peak load on the swap station in terms of power is possibly WAY lower than if you had to provide fast chargers.

The power draw of a supercharger (single connector) is huge. The power draw of a 16 or 32 bay supercharger site is insane. There just are not that many locations where there is spare capacity in a country's electrical grid to draw down that much power. That means local grid upgrades ($$$$)
In theory you can locally generate with solar, but you can only fit a 1MW solar farm in 2 hectares. You need a huge solar farm next to every roadside supercharger station to make that work.

I'm 100% team fast-charge, but I would not write off battery swapping as totally nuts. Depending on the size of the country, the number of roadtrips people do, and the electrical infrastructure, an argument can be made that its not dead tech. Especially if in 5 years time NIO are on battery swap v2, happening in half or quarter the time. (Its actually quite clunky and slow now afaik).

Battery swapping requires the logistics of maintaining an inventory of a suitable number of packs at each location.

Cars need to be designed so that the packs can be easily swapped.

The swapping machinery is more expensive, more complex and takes up more real estate.

But what happens if the battery swap machine has a fault in the middle of a swap?
My guess a technician has to travel to site and repair the machine, that car isn't going anywhere for hours.

With supercharger V3, tabless cells, silicone anodes, etc. There are ways to make supercharging faster amd more convenient. It is already good enough.
 
Battery materials are soon getting cheaper?

More likely disinformation from Goldman whose favorite scam is cornering commodity markets via hoarding.

These pricks are literally hoarding uranium for nuclear power plants to try and gouge utilities.

There is zero chance we'll have an oversupply of these mineral/metals in the next 4 or 5 years.
 
I don't think the goal is to eliminate all humans at the onset and they would be wise to selectively chose the markets they start in...like their own factories. We will see more at AI day...hopefully

We need to remember Optimus will initially be clumsy, slow learning, and very limited in the range of tasks it can perform.

Being good enough to replace all humans in manufacturing seems like a 50-100 year project to me.

The aim is to allow manufacturing to continue when recruiting a human workforce is difficult and expensive . Elon expects the human population to decline in number and age.

He also proposed a UBI. Being good enough to replace a majority of the humans in manufacturing may only be a 10-15 year project.

Either way humanity has some tricky issues to navigate. We might end up with too few productive workers or not enough jobs.
 
How many active investors are on this forum thread? It would be simple to estimate the total share of Tesla that we collectively own if we knew that (calling @AudubonB or @ggr) compared to a sample of 349 respondents.
I don't know what makes you think we could help. Nothing about being a moderator gives us access to any useful information.
 
Major fall last week on freight shipping index, average now under 8k which hasn't happened since July 2021. Biggest mover is China East Asia to North America West falling 16% in one week.

Alternative possibility is that China production levels down due to covid, so less material to ship abroad. But hoping the first explanation is the correct one.
 
Alternative possibility is that China production levels down due to covid, so less material to ship abroad. But hoping the first explanation is the correct one.
We actually saw a slight rebound in freight shipping index due to China ports rebounding two weeks ago. However we see a major collapse in price last week after that initial rebound. So this is with Chinese ports back running at 95-100%.

 
If past history is any indication, never pay attention, not even a little bit, to what brokerage houses say!
I understand your point, but still disagree with this statement.
IMHO, you can pay attention to what they say, just don't take them at face value.
Whatever they say, they always have an agenda, and it is not to help you, but to sell certain products ,push certain stocks etc.
So you can use their "advice" as indicator of what not to do, i.e. treat the information you get from them in a game-theory fashion only,
use what they say against them. ;)
 
For Europe and co regarding FSD:
New UNECE draft on DCAC (Dynamic Control Assistant System) as part (enhancement) of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant System), not to be confused with ADS (Automated Driving System). Some currently prohibited stuff will be possible as an ASSISTANT system (supervision required), like better "automatic" lane changes. Basically more features of FSD beta would be allowed in Europe and co. No idea how and when the draft gets finalized.

Seems like steps are taken in the right direction, but still very slowly. Still crazy how over regulated this (and a lot of other) stuff is here in Europe.

Way more details from Steven Peeters:
 
Will We Get a Soft Landing?
A soft landing is when an economy avoids a recession and moves from a high growth & high inflationary period to a low/moderate growth and low/moderate inflationary period. A recession is when an economy experiences a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2 consecutive quarters.
GDP unexpectedly declined at a 1.4% annualized pace in Q1. Another decline in Q2 would signal a recession. But the Q1 decline may have been driven more by Omicron and the Ukraine/Russia war than by worsening economic fundamentals.

Most economists think a soft landing is improbable. That's because high inflation and low unemployment are predictors of future recessions. Since the 1950s, when inflation is above 4% and unemployment is below 5%, the U.S. has usually seen a recession.

But I think things may be different this time. Some of the low unemployment is driven by a low participation rate (which started with Covid) and some inflation is supply driven and not only driven by demand. I'm hopeful for a soft landing. I'm actually part of the minority that believes Chairman Powell has acted prudently. The effects of rate increases are often not seen on the economy until one year out. The Fed moving cautiously is appropriate imo.

The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) put out their Economic Projections (see Bloomberg table below).
They are projecting a soft landing. This would be good news for the stock market.

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We actually need to produce millions of EVs a year to simply cut out 1 million bpd of oil. Fuel efficiency and economic growth matter far more (sadly) at this time. Most folks use 10 million EVs to reduce consumption of 1 million bpd (we use 75 if my memory is correct). Anyway, the point being we need ever EV made and the addressable market is simply gigantic. So good on Ford, VW, GM, and all the other old evil OEMs for every EV they can pump out. It will take several years of global EV production to eliminate just the Russian portion of production that is exported. Lots of good discussion on this in the Ukraine war thread.
Meh, EVs aren't the only drag on oil demand growth.
 
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