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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Major fall last week on freight shipping index, average now under 8k which hasn't happened since July 2021. Biggest mover is China East Asia to North America West falling 16% in one week.

We are actually worried we'll have enough containers in the US to send logs/lumber to asia this fall. The cost of shipping USA East Cost to Asia continues to be below $1000 for key ports which is pretty cheap.

Hopefully the fall in shipping prices from China bring more volume.
 
V2 is up to 150kW per cabinet split into two pedestals. First to connect gets priority. Mod: edited at user request; apparently changed in 2020.
V3 is 1MW per cabinet to 4 pedestals, each up to 250kW (cabinet grid input is limited, but they can connect to Megapacks).
Urban SC are 72kW per pedestal.
Introducing V3 Supercharging
Tesla Supercharger - Wikipedia
You put too much emphasis on best case 1 MW per cabinet. Wiki itself tells the same "However the grid input is limited to around 350 kW". My numbers were for Europe so its ~300kW. That means when SC site is busy on average you can expect about 75kW in Europe and 87kW in America AC power per stall. As I was trying to put perspective what happens if swapping station runs out of buffer or SC is packed with cars. While it may seem low in reality it should be better as most likely few stall will be empty/cars driving in out, some cars will be past optimal SOC and some cars even will be at stupid high SOC. The best part about v3 is dynamic sharing as it allows to have as much stalls as possible with same grid connection. As I would prefer to go into SC and plug and leave car charge at 90 kW than be Taycan owner go to 350kW charger, but have to wait 30 min in queue, do note most new CCS chargers also come with some power sharing now so it's not as bad as with original 350kW chargers.
 
You put too much emphasis on best case 1 MW per cabinet. Wiki itself tells the same "However the grid input is limited to around 350 kW". My numbers were for Europe so its ~300kW. That means when SC site is busy on average you can expect about 75kW in Europe and 87kW in America AC power per stall. As I was trying to put perspective what happens if swapping station runs out of buffer or SC is packed with cars. While it may seem low in reality it should be better as most likely few stall will be empty/cars driving in out, some cars will be past optimal SOC and some cars even will be at stupid high SOC. The best part about v3 is dynamic sharing as it allows to have as much stalls as possible with same grid connection. As I would prefer to go into SC and plug and leave car charge at 90 kW than be Taycan owner go to 350kW charger, but have to wait 30 min in queue, do note most new CCS chargers also come with some power sharing now so it's not as bad as with original 350kW chargers.
Oh, you edited your post. I was initially addressing the 72kW on V3 wording since V3 can go to 250kW on a pedestal and V2 was limited to 72kW or so peak when shared. I did note the AC link limit; however, given the DC link operating in parallel, saying the 4 pedestal group is limited to 350kW /4 may be overly conservative. (Until stationary batteries are drained and 4 empty cars plug in)
2019 spec sheets which call out: 433kVA AC input 575kW on DC bus
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The signal to noise ratio would plummet and I am astonished that any mod here would think that is a good idea.
Mods are volunteers. Quality/patience/intelligence/rigidity varies greatly.

Edit: (Since I'm immediately being misunderstood) Saying that characteristics vary among volunteers is not criticism, it's obvious. We can't expect all mods to be the best mod around.
 
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When will Re-Rating of TSLA happen ? , FSD, BOTS, Federal credit for Tesla.

One of this need to happen over next few years, Majority of companies rarely have multiple home run, Google, yet to see home run on other bets, Apple beyond Iphone really hasn’t happened.

Federal Credit perhaps should not be in re-rating but with Tesla’s good margin, If it happens it will fall directly into bottom line.
 
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When will Re-Rating of TSLA happen ? , FSD, BOTS, Federal credit for Tesla.

One of this need to happen over next few years, Majority of companies rarely have multiple home run, Google, yet to see home run on other bets, Apple beyond Iphone really hasn’t happened.

Federal Credit perhaps should not be in re-rating but with Tesla’s good margin, If it happens it will fall directly into bottom line.
Most likely when oil collapses enough so that there is less money and influence.
 
Most owners are AP only. FSD and in particular FSD beta is a modest fraction of the owner base. Even among FSD drivers I suspect most use simple AP or even traffic assist cruise most of the time.

For a lot of us, these tools are amazing. And definitely prevent some accidents.
I’ve no idea how many there are who, like me, have FSD purchased but mostly drive 100% by hand because AP and even TACC have so many false collision warnings in urban traffic, where I do most of my driving, FWIW with AP my safety score is typically in mid-60’s, but with 100% hand driving is typically 98-99.
 
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I’ve no idea how many there are who, like me, have FSD purchased but mostly drive 100% by hand because AP and even TACC have so many false collision warnings in urban traffic, where I do most of my driving, FWIW with AP my safety score is typically in mid-60’s, but with 100% hand driving is typically 98-99.
Maybe it's changed but I thought on FSD you didn't get any dings. Before I got on the beta program I maintained a 100% score by driving as much as possible on FSD. You are saying you are getting 60's when on AP?
 
When will Re-Rating of TSLA happen ? , FSD, BOTS, Federal credit for Tesla.

One of this need to happen over next few years, Majority of companies rarely have multiple home run, Google, yet to see home run on other bets, Apple beyond Iphone really hasn’t happened.

Federal Credit perhaps should not be in re-rating but with Tesla’s good margin, If it happens it will fall directly into bottom line.
For questions of the stock taking off, it is useful, or at least personally amusing for me, to use the rocketry concept of NET (no earlier than) dates. I don’t play with options, which is good, because this is all probably wrong:

Principles:

CapEx – NET 6 months before running in a steady state at capacity

To a surprising extent, the market does not value the implications of capital expenditure and R&D, until it comes into view on the horizon of the next two quarters.

Until then, traders and managed funds discount the value because of risks, and/or are engaged in pursuing other, nearer-term opportunities to invest in other companies.

This, of course, provides us with the opportunity to invest at lower prices for longer, until then.

P/E Ratio – NET the delivery numbers, and usually NET the earnings release, and sometimes 3 weeks later

It is easy for anyone here to go to this thread ( Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook ) and see where the P/E of the company will go. However, most investors will tend to see this change only when analysts tell them (after deliveries come out), or when the P/E number changes on Yahoo Finance, after earnings.

Guidance – NET ever, until it turns into CapEx and P/E Ratio

The clear hints that Texas and Berlin-Brandenburg will aspire to produce 2 million cars each, annually, are not taken at face value. Tesla management are remarkably clear about what the company aspires to do, and remain focused on the mission. When they change course, they attempt to highlight this as clearly as possible, with Investor Days, Master Plans, and comments on earnings calls and at shareholder meetings. This information is “canon” to us in this thread, but almost meaningless to analysts, who need to justify their statements to institutional investors with other evidence: “Elon said so” is not good enough.

Time

Each year, the discount rate applied to future earnings is between 8-20%. As each year passes, we can expect the share price to rise by 8-20 percent as risk is retired.

Implications of these principles:

The current all-time high of just over $1200 is not an unreasonable valuation, considering only the next year or two of hardware sales. We can expect, I think, to jump back to these levels when the Q3 earnings come out in October.

In my own opinion, taking off beyond these levels (the re-rating you are asking about) will require either:

  • Texas and Berlin-Brandenburg to demonstrate a weekly rate that goes beyond 1 million cars per year (I think this is the rate at which analysts will have to change their models), which I am guessing may be evident in the Q2 earning release next year in July/August.
  • Software sales (i.e. FSD option) tracking higher, and being called out specifically by Tesla, I hope on the Q4 2022 Earnings call next January.
 
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Maybe it's changed but I thought on FSD you didn't get any dings. Before I got on the beta program I maintained a 100% score by driving as much as possible on FSD. You are saying you are getting 60's when on AP?
Yes, primarily for collision warning, but also for hard braking. Almost all the collision warnings happen when there are parked vehicles adjacent to road. On hand driving these disappear. My use of the FSD term may be incorrect since I do not have the new version because I never have had an exemplary safety score until I finally stopped using AP or TACC at all.
 
But you know, regulators are screaming at Tesla for using volunteers and not "professional drivers" which statistically has proven they are an order of magnitude more dangerous than these volunteers.
I believe that regulators (NHTSA) have not been screaming at Tesla for using volunteers.

The non-regulators (NTSB), “journalists” and other public figures are the ones who have been whining about FSD Beta safety for all kinds of questionable reasons.

The worst NHTSA has done this whole time is require Tesla to issue a recall/OTA update to make FSD Beta come to a complete halt at stop signs.

One individual, Dr. Missy Cummings, who was briefly appointed to an advisory role at NHTSA, had been highly critical of Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD program, but she was relieved of the appointment. I don’t believe she was even going to have any real power as an advisor.

Also, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg drives a Tesla daily and I would guess that he has FSD or at least uses Autopilot daily to suffer less in Washington DC highway traffic. It would be pretty strange for him to have a Tesla and not want to gain firsthand experience with the ADAS, and he surely can afford the price tag. For all we know Secretary Buttigieg might be a Beta tester himself.
 
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Shanghai is opening up. Different articles give different pieces of the puzzle so I will post some of them and highlight a few things that might be of interest to Tesla.

The Chinese commercial hub of 25 million aims to essentially end from Wednesday a lockdown that has severely damaged the economy and seen many Shanghai residents lose income, struggle to source food and to cope mentally with prolonged isolation.

The financial hub will accelerate approvals for property projects and supply new residential developments, according to a plan issued by the Shanghai municipal government. The quota for car ownership this year will be increased by 40,000, a purchase tax for some passenger vehicles will be reduced and subsidies will be given to electric car buyers.

Other measures in Shanghai’s newly published plan include:

  • More tax, fee cuts for companies; reducing rents for more firms
  • Encouraging commerce firms and e-commerce platforms to issue coupons to boost consumption
  • Supporting construction of infrastructure projects in railway, airport hubs, ports and energy sectors; accelerating implementation of major projects in integrated circuits and new energy vehicles
  • Boosting financial support to foreign trade firms
  • Helping foreign companies resume operations and supporting multinational companies to establish regional headquarters and research centers in Shanghai
  • Starting more urban renovation projects and supporting local government to sell special bonds for city renovation projects
  • Properly increasing construction land quota for 2022
The new measures -- in place till end-2022 -- together with policies issued in March, will reduce the burden for entities by 300 billion yuan ($44.8 billion) this year, Hua Yuan, head of Shanghai Municipal Development & Reform Commission, said at the briefing.


At the same time, the city will promote work resumption in all sectors by expanding the scope of subsidies for enterprises' epidemic prevention and disinfection, stabilizing industrial and supply chains in the Yangtze River Delta[where Gigafactory Shanghai is located], and smoothing domestic and international logistics and transportation channels.

The city will reduce rent, property tax and urban land use tax for qualified enterprises.
It will also grant subsidies for non-resident users regarding water, electricity and natural gas fees.

According to the plan, measures will also be adopted to stabilize foreign capital, encourage consumption, and expand investment.

Shanghai will establish a mechanism to arrange designated personnel to aid work resumption of key foreign-funded enterprises and launch an online service system for major foreign-funded projects.

It will start the application process for special funds to develop the regional headquarters of multinational corporations in Shanghai ahead of schedule in 2022.

The city will gradually reduce the purchase tax on some passenger vehicles as required by national policies. It will also provide subsidies to consumers who replace cars with pure electric ones, and support large commercial enterprises and e-commerce platforms in issuing consumption coupons.
 
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I can’t believe I clicked on that link to read the biggest piece of crap of Yahoo Finance could publish this week. Next time please give us a little summary to prevent us from having a headache before going to bed ;)

I just waited for some other canary to go into that coal mine.

Thank you for your service. ;)
 
Also, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg drives a Tesla daily and I would guess that he has FSD or at least uses Autopilot daily to suffer less in Washington DC highway traffic. It would be pretty strange for him to have a Tesla and not want to gain firsthand experience with the ADAS, and he surely can afford the price tag. For all we know Secretary Buttigieg might be a Beta tester himself.
No he does not. A simple Google search yields the result that he drives a Mach-E.