Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

Drew Baglino "Fireside Chat" at Stanford Energy Solutions Week. Not new, but posted only recently so far as I can tell. He doesn't say much that people here don't already know, but it's good to hear him talk for an extended period.

Makes the excuse for solar roof delays that Tesla didn't pay enough attention to all the other roofing stuff around the solar shingles that needs to be gotten right. Says the shingles are great and cheap, which seems wrong to me.

Tuesday May 3, 2022. Drew Baglino, Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering for Tesla, sits down for a conversation with Yi Cui, Professor of Materials Science and Engineering and Director of the Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy and Will Chueh, Associate Professor of Materials Science and Engineering and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy, to share his experiences and what excites him in the energy storage space.

 

[printf42]

Meet the Reclusive Software Billionaire Attacking Elon Musk​

“Trillion-Dollar Ponzi Scheme.” “Deep Flaws.” “Unsafe.” The television ads for Dan O’Dowd, a software billionaire running as a Democrat.


What is this person’s agenda? He claims his company has nothing to do with FSD. Does he fear all his customers going bankrupt in competition?

He seems to have impressive credentials in the field that lends weight to his opinions. And yet:

“The software that drives cars that are going to have millions of people depending on it should be our best software, the most carefully designed and tested software,” he said. “Instead we’re using literally the worst software.”

Is it as simple as letting the perfect be the enemy of the good?

And why do these articles never include any data outside of anecdotal?

“The New York Times has reported extensively on the shortcomings of Musk’s push for fully autonomous cars, including in a recent documentary film.

In February, Tesla recalled 54,000 of its cars to disable a feature of its software that allowed the vehicles to make rolling stops in some cases. There are entire websites devoted to documenting deaths involving Teslas, including those where driver-assistance features were proved to have been involved.”

Does anyone really believe with the current state of affairs that if Tesla did not produce prodigious evidence on demand of the safety of the system vs. average human driver that the whole system would not have been shut down already by regulators?

His company makes “secure” OS for embedded systems, Tesla uses Linux and probably pushing/requiring suppliers to adopt Linux too.

Tesla is existential threat to them, if everyone realizes they don’t need to pay big bucks for a custom OS which doesn’t really provide any advantage compared to Linux.

 

[Gigapress]

No he does not. A simple Google search yields the result that he drives a Mach-E.

Thanks, I don't know where I got that idea from. Totally false memory, my bad. Looks like he owned a Chevy Cruze and now his security detail drives a Mach-E. On second thought he's probably too busy to drive anyway and the security team does it for him.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Drew Baglino "Fireside Chat" at Stanford Energy Solutions Week. Not new, but posted only recently so far as I can tell. He doesn't say much that people here don't already know, but it's good to hear him talk for an extended period.

Makes the excuse for solar roof delays that Tesla didn't pay enough attention to all the other roofing stuff around the solar shingles that needs to be gotten right. Says the shingles are great and cheap, which seems wrong to me.

Tuesday May 3, 2022. Drew Baglino, Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering for Tesla, sits down for a conversation with Yi Cui, Professor of Materials Science and Engineering and Director of the Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy and Will Chueh, Associate Professor of Materials Science and Engineering and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy, to share his experiences and what excites him in the energy storage space.

Thanks for the link. At about 38 min is when he talks about solar roof. I've spoken with a person who works on the Tesla Energy side of the business and they said the same thing: the shingles aren't the issue. Solar roof this year generates more power per shingle while costing significantly less.

The issue is everything else like Drew mentions AND the myriad rules and regulations. The permitting and regulations are the largest hurdle they face in terms of solar roof installation growth

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla related... PROPOSAL to make PHEVs less desirable for customers & makers in EU. Tesla green credits pool may be more in demand. Big nail in coffin of even PHEV ice engines and their development. Can BMW etc make enough pure EVs? Or is it open goal for Tesla, BYD and others that can secure chips & cells

Lots of speculation on how manufacturers might cope. If it passes as proposed, it seems to me that this will have a massive cooling effect on any remaining pro-ICE elements & sentiment in senior management of OEMs & their suppliers, finance. Where EU goes, many other jurisdictions may follow, so global implications from restrictions and also scaling. What's the point of Toyota continuing a PHEV-first route when the market will obviously contract?

Whoever has the cells will do best in the EV drought "Valley Of Death" - Tesla will do well.

New EU emissions rules to accelerate decline of plug-in hybrids | Autocar

PHEVs face uncertain future if European lawmakers reclassify how their CO2 emissions are measured

www.autocar.co.uk

Autocar has learned that the UF will be set at around 800 in 2025, rising fivefold to 4000 or more by 2027.

As a result, a 50g/km PHEV of today is expected to end up with a figure of about 125g/km in 2027, bringing substantial implications on the cost of ownership, due to larger taxes and emissions surcharges incurred.

These higher CO2 figures will also mean car makers' fleet-average emissions figures will need to be recalculated, especially since most are currently relying on PHEVs to replace diesel.

In many cases, PHEVs provide at least 50% of sales to ease the ‘glidepath’ to the phasing out of ICE in 2035.

Manufacturers will have to move more rapidly to a much stronger mix of BEVs – perhaps two or three for each ICE sale. And that will be a real challenge for an industry struggling for semiconductor and battery-cell supply.

 

[15Peter20]

Haven't you heard? There are, in fact, lots of FSD accidents, at a rate at least 250% that of non-FSD driving, but Tesla has programmed the software in the cars to reconfigure during an accident such that it reports FSD was not in use during the 10 minutes leading up to the crash. In the event the driver survives the accident, Tesla has programmed the front and rear motor controllers to create a powerful 3D magnetic resonance field centered around the driver's head that almost instantly erases any memory of having activated FSD in the first place. In most cases this all happens before the car comes to a complete stop.*

No one is any the wiser. Except for TSLAQ - they have that scammer Elon Musk figured out. He uses the same kind of magnetic resonance mind control on the auditor that signs off on Tesla's financials. It's all sooo obvious!

* Except in cases where the driver has severe iron deficiency anemia. This is due to the fact that the magnetic resonance field requires normal level of iron in the blood to be effective. However, since iron deficiency anemia is relatively uncommon, there are no known accidents in which the driver's memory was not successfully reconfigured.

/s

And the vaccines have iron in them too, according to a report I just made up. Nailed it!

 

[mad474]

Minute note against my forgetfulness and shock at missing US pre-market quotes: Today is Memorial Day. The US stock exchange is closed.

 

[OrthoSurg]

What about that headline made you click on it?

I did not know what mince meant, sorry for my French background. I was curious. Now I regret.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Minute note against my forgetfulness and shock at missing US pre-market quotes: Today is Memorial Day. The US stock exchange is closed.

You can still look at futures, TL0, and the token for your fix!

Or you can just have a wonderful Memorial Day! We have all earned a nice rest from the market today!

 

[2daMoon]

Thanks, I don't know where I got that idea from. Totally false memory, my bad. Looks like he owned a Chevy Cruze and now his security detail drives a Mach-E. On second thought he's probably too busy to drive anyway and the security team does it for him.

There was a photo at one time showing a man that looked like him with a Tesla. It was later proven false upon closer examination.

 

[2daMoon]

Minute note against my forgetfulness and shock at missing US pre-market quotes: Today is Memorial Day. The US stock exchange is closed.

The good news is the stock price has remained green for three consecutive days over the weekend!

 

[nativewolf]

Thanks for the link. At about 38 min is when he talks about solar roof. I've spoken with a person who works on the Tesla Energy side of the business and they said the same thing: the shingles aren't the issue. Solar roof this year generates more power per shingle while costing significantly less.

The issue is everything else like Drew mentions AND the myriad rules and regulations. The permitting and regulations are the largest hurdle they face in terms of solar roof installation growth

If that's the hard part thats the challenge I'd like to see Tesla absolutely committed to solving.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Usually the trading of TSLA in Germany is not much of an indication of direction.

Today they are trading at EURO 722.60 to EURO 734.90, currently above USD 781 per share. So the steep climb seems to stay with us just a little bit longer.

Today I paid für my MIG MYP (red) at EURO 67.170 (86 shares - no worry, did not have to sell any). Hopefully that speeds up delivery. The color might be the holdup just now, as only white and black have been produced so far. Hope the second shift opens new colors.

 

[CHGolferJim]

No he does not. A simple Google search yields the result that he drives a Mach-E.

Oh to live in a fishbowl like Pete and AOC where one of the great pleasures in life, choosing and driving a fine automobile, is governed by political expediency.

 

[elasalle]

 

[elasalle]

Tesla’s Shanghai factory restores manufacturing capacity to pre-lockdown levels: sources

The Giga Shanghai has been running with two shifts a day since late last week, according to people familiar with the situation.

www.scmp.com

• The Giga Shanghai has been running with two shifts a day since late last week, according to people familiar with the situation
• Tesla has lost about 50,000 vehicles in production due to reduced shifts at Giga Shanghai between March 28 and April 18 amid lockdowns

 

[hobbes]

Tesla emailed me today suggesting trading my 2019 Model 3 for a Y performance from Berlin. I requested a trade in offer just for fun.

• 2019 LR AWD (pre heatpump etc)
• Original price: 61,000 EUR
• Offer. 40,000 EUR

Still very happy with my 3, Y is too big for my needs so no need for an upgrade. Also would lose FSD which I got for just 5000 EUR (in exchange for price drop on car before delivery).

Assuming high demand for Y performance, I guess they do that so they can make additional money at reselling the original car at a higher price. IIRC there were people in the US that got a trade in offer that was higher than original price, anyone got an idea why my offer is so much lower?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Minute note against my forgetfulness and shock at missing US pre-market quotes: Today is Memorial Day. The US stock exchange is closed.

Tradegate Exchange Tesla Inc. is open today in Berlin:

727.70 eur is 782.35 usd which is up +2.32% vs. Friday's Close in NYC.

NASDAQ-100 Futures are up +1.00% right now in Chicago, so Tesla in Berlin is approx. inline with it's beta.

Cheers!

 

[heltok]

@avoigt posted a nice compliation of famous last words by German automotive CEOs:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/48581019

Direct link to pdf

 

[jbcarioca]

G

Maybe it's changed but I thought on FSD you didn't get any dings. Before I got on the beta program I maintained a 100% score by driving as much as possible on FSD. You are saying you are getting 60's when on AP?

Yes. I have wondered if maybe my car has a calibration problem but I have not tried to have that checked at a service center. My previous Model 3 with FSD seemed to be better than is my Model S Plaid, but that is entirely subjective.

One issue that becomes possibly material for TSLA FUD is the sensitivity of all systems as the technologies advance, with other owners and drivers perhaps being as indolent as am I to check out discrepancies.

From some decades flying aircraft with avionics that were very advanced for their day I learned that if I could not diagnose a problem myself it was unlikely that an avionics technician could do it. This situation is similar in that it is possible that there is nothing wrong with my FSD, but I'm trying to use it in urban settings for which it is not yet prepared. If not, I really need to document each discrepancy, which I have not yet done in any systematic way. In aircraft OTOH I documented everything.

Some years back @Papafox and other aircraft CFI's (Certified Flight Instructor) had threads supporting the @Papafox orientation to Tesla use. Then, as now, those tend to be even more relevant as the technologies advance. Once Level 4 and 5 arrive that may begin to decline as an issue.

In the meantime it really is my obligation to understand the issues I am having with my FSD. Specifically whether the issues are mine or the FSD or both.

An analogy comes to mind with the early-1990's adoption of GPS in aviation, first as another signal in multi-sensor navigation, later as a single source. The biggest issue was knowing when the system was working well. With GPS allowed for single-source in 1994 the former VOR and Loran based systems almost instantly moved to GPS. My aircraft immediately moved since the new were almost plug-compatible with the predecessors. Suddenly diagnosis of problems was crucial, but some pilots understood the issues but a handful did not so it was a horrible problem differentiating between system problems and operator problems. I ended out forcing all my pilots and trainees go through a week-long technology training course prior to solo flight in those aircraft.

I do think Tesla needs a similar approach. It is possible that I have not done enough myself to know whether the problems are me, the system or both.

Sorry for the long winded response. I shall do more to define the facts about which I am posting. In the meantime, long honored aviation traditions says: "It's clearly political error". It's up to the pilot to prove otherwise. (ok, that's the classic Boeing rule, but the whole industry follows it normally)

By definition it's me whose errors count, not FSD. Hence, I need to determine if sensors and/or warning trigger logic are part of the problem. Sometime my insurance rate could depend on those distinctions.