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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Things being imperfect right now is different than being past the tipping point. If I have a big pile of dry leaves and I use a lighter to burn a couple leaves, then a tipping point has been reached where even if I walk away, the whole pile will burn on its own from a self-sustaining chain reaction. This is true even when 99% of the pile is not currently on fire.

Those lies and fossil fuel corruption long predate Elon's involvement in the automotive and energy industries and he's been mostly unsuccessful in stopping it, yet Tesla and the rest of the industry have managed to make exponential growth happen at astonishing rates, and now Tesla and the industry have hit positive cashflow and market competitiveness. That's what the tipping point is: when the technology has matured enough that capitalism and politicians' desire for power will make the most efficient solution dominate very quickly. Whoever moves fastest and innovates quickest can make the most money and the solar and utility storage markets are already brutally competitive. Model 3, Y and Cybertruck are market-slaying products and demand for them would be 10x higher if more people actually understood the value proposition. Finally, from the sounds of things, Tesla's Solar Roof tech just needs some relatively straightforward installation problems solved and it'll be a killer product that people will want whether Elon's in charge or not. The Governor of freaking Texas just rolled out the red carpet for an electric vehicle and battery factory that will directly help kill oil & gas demand. That is also a sign that we've passed the tipping point.

The best thing a good leader can do is leave behind a culture that persists and I think Elon has done that.
You need to spend some more time playing with that leaf pile and your lighter. 99xs out of 100, your couple of leaves burn out without igniting the rest of the pile.

We are not even close to agreeing where mankind is in history, what’s definitely going to happen vs what might happen vs what won’t happen and the role Elon plays in that now and going forward.

Never mind the fact you literally just made my original point for me why Drew is nowhere near good enough a replacement for Elon. Who do you think got Texas to roll out that red carpet? It sure as buttermilk biscuits wasn’t Drew. And don’t even try to make the leap that Drew could have done it. There’s a reason Drew is doing what he’s been doing for 16 years and Elon is doing what he’s been doing.

Less typing, more time massaging the thought process.
 
Could we have some context. Why is this relevant to Tesla or TSLA and what does this even mean?

A common refrain among economists has been the risk to the economy from inflation and supply chain and reversal of quantitative easing are much less serious problems than the banking and credit crisis that tanked the economy over a decade ago. This note could be read as an early warning sign of a looming credit crisis. That, on top of everything else, could be very bad news for the economy and the stock market and therefore Tesla and TSLA.

My *guess* is that Credit Suise is taking precautions due to a recent fall in stock values that moved them from green to yellow in risk. If the stock market at least stabilizes here, this is unlikely to be a near term problem
 
Most companies would consider it blatant industrial espionage. The droners need to move on.
If Tesla were like "most companies" it wouldn't be worth investing in. You can, by way of drone videos, get some idea of what the innovations are. But you won't get anything about how to achieve a comparable pace of innovation. So, according to Elon, nothing truly important would be revealed.

People who steal technology never develop the underlying ability to develop it themselves. So they aren't actual competition.
 
A common refrain among economists has been the risk to the economy from inflation and supply chain and reversal of quantitative easing are much less serious problems than the banking and credit crisis that tanked the economy over a decade ago. This note could be read as an early warning sign of a looming credit crisis. That, on top of everything else, could be very bad news for the economy and the stock market and therefore Tesla and TSLA.

My *guess* is that Credit Suise is taking precautions due to a recent fall in stock values that moved them from green to yellow in risk. If the stock market at least stabilizes here, this is unlikely to be a near term problem
This may be true.
One note though, I believe Tesla is in better shape to weather a deep recession than any other auto company. Having basically no debt, would be a huge advantage.
 
A common refrain among economists has been the risk to the economy from inflation and supply chain and reversal of quantitative easing are much less serious problems than the banking and credit crisis that tanked the economy over a decade ago. This note could be read as an early warning sign of a looming credit crisis. That, on top of everything else, could be very bad news for the economy and the stock market and therefore Tesla and TSLA.

My *guess* is that Credit Suise is taking precautions due to a recent fall in stock values that moved them from green to yellow in risk. If the stock market at least stabilizes here, this is unlikely to be a near term problem

Thanks for typing out a thoughtful and concise response instead of being a lazy bum like me… 🤓
 
This is a bit OT, but the other thread is not gaining any traction so I will promote it here:

Should you care? Maybe:

Will this have any influence on Tesla? People scared of public transportation and buying more cars? Border and factory lockdowns influencing deliveries? Will it fizzle out quickly? Let’s discuss in the other thread!
 
This is a bit OT, but the other thread is not gaining any traction so I will promote it here:

Should you care? Maybe:

Will this have any influence on Tesla? People scared of public transportation and buying more cars? Border and factory lockdowns influencing deliveries? Will it fizzle out quickly? Let’s discuss in the other thread!
We have a vaccine and treatment, plus transmission is difficult unlike covid so it's a meh on a scale of care.
 
I’ve no idea how many there are who, like me, have FSD purchased but mostly drive 100% by hand because AP and even TACC have so many false collision warnings in urban traffic, where I do most of my driving, FWIW with AP my safety score is typically in mid-60’s, but with 100% hand driving is typically 98-99.
Just wrapping up 1000+ mile road trip from Oregon to California and back. Probably 900 miles was on AP.

Don’t know if it’s location based or vehicle base but we’ve had tremendous experience with it.
 
The Wall Street Journal barely even has ads on their website, they have a subscriber model and put stuff behind a pay wall — that very article is behind a pay wall. And if you scroll down below that article, it brings up a bunch of separate WSJ articles about the Kia/Hyundai fire recalls, GM recalls, etc.

They also know an article with a Tesla picture will bring in clicks, especially with the recall connotation. I think Elon is actually advertising for the WSJ here.
 
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This is a bit OT, but the other thread is not gaining any traction so I will promote it here:

Should you care? Maybe:

Will this have any influence on Tesla? People scared of public transportation and buying more cars? Border and factory lockdowns influencing deliveries? Will it fizzle out quickly? Let’s discuss in the other thread!
Monkeypox is "not gaining any traction" as a discussion topic. There's a good reason for that. It's just fear-mongering. COVID has all the pandemic bases covered. The chances that a new COVID variant is the "next pandemic" is about ten thousand times greater. Or pick your own big number.

The chances that Tesla sees production problems at some point from continuing pandemic issues is just about certain. Happening now. Will be extremely surprising if it doesn't happen some more over the next year or two. Could be anywhere from an annoyance to catastrophic. No telling.
 
Thanks for typing out a thoughtful and concise response instead of being a lazy bum like me… 🤓
From my experience, Wall Street's view of CS is that they risk a dangerous amount relative to their equity, through margin and swaps. I've thought for a couple of decades now that, if there were a CDS problem (again), CS would be the most vulnerable.
 
@AndrewZ Quick question, are you even invested in TSLA?

Forgive me if I misinterpreting, but it would seem you created this account last week to start posting a bunch of complaints about Tesla's prices, subpar quality and luxury, and disastrous FSD Beta program that's no better than ADAS from Comma.AI or Genesis.

Not sure if it's just a coincidence...but it seems like your account was created at the same time TSLA hit the $600s while a few trolls arrived here, and in this time you haven't posted a single positive comment.

I'm very interested to learn more of your enlightened thinking on how our customers are getting "boned" with our "ridiculously overpriced" vehicles. They must be pretty stupid to keep getting tricked like that and wait 12 months in line for the privilege. As an investor I'm really glad we have such a huge supply of suckers to screw over, and luckily they keep inviting all their friends and family to get boned too. Many of us here have been boned by Tesla as well, some of us multiple times and our spouses too.

Hopefully soon we can start tricking people even more with ads, like Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes and GM do. We might need it once customers realize how much better the leather stitching is in the EQS than in a Model Y, or worse if they see how snazzy the giant grill looks on the Lyric.


Bahaha

You’d expect to get a lot more for your $$$ from an automaker who is pulling ~10% less gross margin per vehicle, the difference in materials and finishing is ridiculous for the same price.

Tesla needs more competition without a doubt, good on Hyundai and Kia for bringing it.
Styling is one thing, the material and overal quality difference for the price is another. Tesla is making insane profit on their vehicles, and it’s almost like people have forgotten that the difference between price for consumer and cost for supplier is how badly you’re getting boned. Unless you’re an investor of course.

Minimalism and less is great if that’s what you want but it should cost a lot less, then again the Model Y did cost a lot less not that long ago. When that Genesis was made, the LR was a mere $49.9k and that would make a bit more sense.
I don’t know how people argue for the prices of the Tesla models right now, they are ridiculously overpriced for what you get and that is all the more apparent looking at Tesla’s profit margins. The Model S was $70k USD not that long ago and that makes more sense, it does not make sense at $100k compared to other offerings at that price point.

We can argue that’s demand driven and such and that’s fine, but you are not getting $30k more value in the car after these prices increases. If they werent overpriced, the Investor thread wouldn’t be full of people gushing over the huge margins behind made by selling vehicles for far far more than they cost by industry standards.

If you’re value-orientated and want to get your moneys worth, you want to buy something where the seller is making as little profit as possible.
Pretty sure it's the same situation for the Mach-E. Opening the rear doors manually from inside sounds easier, via a lever in the arm rest, but still not a good solution with small kids in there and no power

Odds of encountering this situation are obviously pretty low but begs asking why even have a design with risks like this
This is a Genesis about the same price as a Model Y now and what I would call “Luxury”

I would say less biased videos are a pretty recent development that started with widening the Beta tester pool size. Prior to widening the Beta, it’s probably fair to state that most videos were edited or showing curated runs the testers knew went well and likely where routes were built to avoid problem areas and portray the system as more proficient than it was.

I mean Tesla had early access beta testers signing NDAs and to acknowledge that many people want Tesla to fail so they were discouraging testers from posting videos showing bad stuff that could be used as ammunition.

That was eventually scrapped after it became public info and the NHTSA came after Tesla because public reporting is something they rely on heavily. Elon then came out with a tweet to cover their asses, suggesting that nobody was adhering to the NDA anyways and that it was as good as being printed on toilet paper.


Theres a loooooong history to this stuff and the current state does not reflect everything that has happened leading up to this point
The Lyriq looks frigging good
 
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