Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

But for long distance towing, you either need a huge battery pack or you have to be willing to stop a lot.

But then I suspect towing a trailer/camper is a rare event for anyone, stopping frequently hopefully should not be a huge downer. I am sure a section of pickup truck owners do tow frequently, but for most I am guessing is a not too frequent event.

 

[Gigapress]

Towing may be the last legitimate use case for light duty ICE trucks. From Teslarati article:



Two things are interesting here:

1. Towing cut his range by about 50%. This is a number I'm starting to see over and over in regard to EV towing.
2. Wow, I had no idea that Lightning was so inefficient. It only gets 1.5 to 1.8 miles per kWh under normal non-towing conditions?

So that bodes well for Cybertruck. I'm sure it will be a much better towing vehicle because of its core efficiency. But for long distance towing, you either need a huge battery pack or you have to be willing to stop a lot.

Long distance towing will be a challenge, even for Tesla. Maybe you could rent a spare battery pack that fits in the bed?

Energy demand in highway towing is dominated by air resistance on the load, so Cybertruck’s competitive advantage will come mainly from powertrain efficiency, larger battery size on the tri- and quad-motor enabled by structural pack and high density 4680s, and more affordable cost per kWh due to 4680s.

For towing with lots of starting and stopping, Cybertruck’s superior powertrain efficiency and regen braking efficiency will really shine. This will serve the market for local government/commercial users well who need an affordable truck that can tow 100-200 miles daily in an urban/suburban area.

 

[henchman24]

Nasdaq is having a real hard time holding above the 30 day MA. I think this is important as the next MA to take down would be the 50 day and that sits at 12,884 (upper 20 day BB is 12,690 and 20 week mid point is 13,150). This is why I think we are seeing it batted down at 12,170-12,180 constantly. If it breaks the 20 MA enough to hold... the next caps from a TA perspective get to the upper 12k-lower 13k realm.

 

[2daMoon]

Towing may be the last legitimate use case for light duty ICE trucks. From Teslarati article:



Two things are interesting here:

1. Towing cut his range by about 50%. This is a number I'm starting to see over and over in regard to EV towing.
2. Wow, I had no idea that Lightning was so inefficient. It only gets 1.5 to 1.8 miles per kWh under normal non-towing conditions?

So that bodes well for Cybertruck. I'm sure it will be a much better towing vehicle because of its core efficiency. But for long distance towing, you either need a huge battery pack or you have to be willing to stop a lot.

Long distance towing will be a challenge, even for Tesla. Maybe you could rent a spare battery pack that fits in the bed?

Trailer companies are designing trailers with batteries and motors to assist on extending the tow range of the vehicle.

They can also power the camper at the campsite, charge the tow vehicle, and, connect to 30A or 50A service for charging.

 

[ZachF]

EVs are part of the virtuous cycle chain reaction I’m referring to.

Cheap solar…

—> Strong economic incentive for battery demand because they are complementary goods​

—> Battery production volume growth​

​

—> Battery innovation and economies of scale and consequently lower prices​

​

—> Cheaper EVs and cheaper EV operating expenses as electricity prices fall​

​

—> More demand for electricity​

​

—> Solar innovation and economies of scale (GOTO Step 1)​

It’s really cheap batteries that are going to be the great enabler.

For instance, a 10k cycle life LFP with an installed cost of $250/kwh has a storage cost of around 2.5¢ per kWh!

 

[Usain]

But then I suspect towing a trailer/camper is a rare event for anyone, stopping frequently hopefully should not be a huge downer. I am sure a section of pickup truck owners do tow frequently, but for most I am guessing is a not too frequent event.

Indeed. Maybe I should have said frequent long distance towing is the last legitimate use case for light duty ICE trucks.

 

[Buckminster]

I guess the key question is: if a Recession is probable . . . .when does it arrive?
Look at the US job openings data:
View attachment 810950
We had 11.5m job openings in March 2022. Delta airlines cancelled 200 flights this holiday weekend due to staff shortages.
IMO, we will need to see job openings drop considerably to get a meaningful drop in consumer spending to help fuel a recession.
The divergent and contradictory economic data that I see really has me perplexed.

btw: the shaded areas of the chart above indicate US recessions.

Hey get back in your bean counting box - this stuff is for the big boy economists like that guy on the TV!

Price elasticity of demand is always the right answer for economics questions - no need to change it just because you rightly predicted a few quarters of TSLA numbers....

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Long distance towing will be a challenge, even for Tesla. Maybe you could rent a spare battery pack that fits in the bed?

I could see in the future that trailers have that their own motors and battery and the communication to/from the car could be using the SENT protocol which Tesla already uses on their latest revision of their door handle. (<-- Pretty cool video if you haven't watched it before.)

Edit: looks like @2daMoon beat me with their post. Those things look cool!

 

[scaesare]

Local and regional tipping points are far more complex than just looking at one cost shifting lower than legacy.

2010 Germany was most definitely past their renewables tipping point and it took extraordinary political effort to slow the market down by 2015 or so. I often cite the month of December 2011 in Germany where the feed-in-tariff rate was about to take another big step down and their marketplace installed over 3GW of solar. In one month. That's a lot.

Yes, the FiT was and remains a subsidy scheme that artificially boosts the value of solar production on the grid. But so what? That's precisely what they intended to do, and it didn't really cost much money.

By 2012/13 the tariff was so low the market ground to a halt and Germany quickly shifted to the more traditional large scale auction for sourcing solar and wind.

Anywho.....from 2010 onward IMO nearly the entire world was past the "tipping point" on renewables. Executed efficiently at scale, the wind and solar technology provided electricity at a comparable price to nearly anything in the market. Obviously we've moved even far cheaper since then.

The only thing that stopped Germany from continuing on to greater renewables adoption was grid congestion and corruptions. Tesla will have that solved for them within 5 or 6 years in my estimation and they'll quickly surpass their 100% renewables goal for 2035.

Unfortunately solar adoption in the US seems to be facing similar obstacles, at least in some areas. My Dad and Brother have solar in CA, and in the last few years, it's become much less financially tenable, largely from utility companies enacting regulation changes to their benefit. The recent attempt at NEM 3.0 is a current example.

I think it points to the fact that, while a tipping point for an industry may appear to have been reached, don't discount (underhanded) tactics the "other side" may use that can stall, or even reverse, progress....

 

[JRP3]

Reminds me of the excellent movie, Thank You For Smoking

Executive Producer: Elon Musk

 

[JRP3]

Trailer companies are designing trailers with batteries and motors to assist on extending the tow range of the vehicle.

They can also power the camper at the campsite, charge the tow vehicle, and, connect to 30A or 50A service for charging.

Unless you do a lot of towing that's an expensive battery pack to have just sitting around doing nothing most of the time. V2G capability would make it more worthwhile.

 

[Gigapress]

I guess the key question is: if a Recession is probable . . . .when does it arrive?
Look at the US job openings data:
View attachment 810950
We had 11.5m job openings in March 2022. Delta airlines cancelled 200 flights this holiday weekend due to staff shortages.
IMO, we will need to see job openings drop considerably to get a meaningful drop in consumer spending to help fuel a recession.
The divergent and contradictory economic data that I see really has me perplexed.

btw: the shaded areas of the chart above indicate US recessions.

It could be an unprecedented kind of long-term frictional unemployment caused by COVID, remote work and remote schooling making a lot of people reconsider their career paths and life goals or want to take time off to recover from burnout. I’ve seen some data indicating this is likely happening.

Some of it is also probably structural unemployment caused by COVID disrupting some entire industries while growing others, thus requiring employees to find new work.

Inflation can also cause frictional unemployment because wages tend to be sticky unless the employees jump ship to a different company. In the reverse, frictional unemployment can also cause inflation because consumers may continue demanding goods and services while temporarily not contributing to the labor force, which contributes to reduced aggregate macroeconomic supply without a corresponding decrease in aggregate demand.

These types of unemployment won’t show up in the official unemployment numbers because if people aren’t currently looking for work they don’t count as part of the labor force. However, they can be very beneficial to the economy in the long run as people find better niches where they’re happier and more productive.

A not-insignificant portion of the 2019 workforce also has exited due to COVID death or long-term disability.

Here in Seattle, fast food restaurants like my local Chipotle are struggling to meet labor demand and are now offering starting pay of significantly more than the $15/hr minimum wage.

 

[henchman24]

I'm in the quit my job from burnout group. I'll probably stay unemployed for a while as I want to travel and rest for a bit. Now if Tesla goes to 300, I'll need a job.

 

[woodisgood]

Yup, also in that group. On a career break to focus on family and the kids. If I go back into the workforce, it definitely won’t be in the same field(s). Hopefully something to benefit the mission if I can.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We famous!

Tesla’s Loyal Retail Fan Club Set to Rev Up Stock’s Recovery

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s grip on its retail trading fans is hard to shake.Most Read from BloombergReady to Buy a House? Just Wait a Few WeeksNATO Should Think Twice Before Accepting Finland and SwedenStocks Trim Gains as Inflation Concerns Increase: Markets WrapGiant Deep Ocean Turbine Trial...

finance.yahoo.com

I like how retail investors are constantly trash talked by the US media and Wall Street who are essentially low-end prostitutes and degenerate(often fraudulent) gamblers.

 

[Usain]

Trailer companies are designing trailers with batteries and motors to assist on extending the tow range of the vehicle.

They can also power the camper at the campsite, charge the tow vehicle, and, connect to 30A or 50A service for charging.

That's a great solution, but it will be expensive. And since trailers come in all shapes and sizes there would be a limit on the utility of any one design.

I still think a battery pack you could rent and place in the bed of the truck would meet the needs of more people since it would serve those who do long distance towing infrequently. And you could just use any existing trailer.

 

[jerry33]

Unless you do a lot of towing that's an expensive battery pack to have just sitting around doing nothing most of the time. V2G capability would make it more worthwhile.

A trailer is actually a case where battery swapping (rental) makes sense. You rent the battery only when you need it.

 

[JRP3]

A trailer is actually a case where battery swapping (rental) makes sense. You rent the battery only when you need it.

Same problems as vehicle pack swapping though: Different form factors/capacities, stockpiling of enough for peak use volumes means it's sitting around unused most of the time, weight/structural penalty for not being integrated. I think a mobile Powerpack built into a trailer makes more sense since it can provide a service all the time, V2G, emergency backup, and load shifting.

 

[hobbes]

Poll of high school students has Tesla in 5th place of favorite future employers (between BMW in 4th and Porsche in 6th). This is the first time Tesla has made the list. An earlier poll of college students had Tesla in top 10 but behind German premium car brands. The changes from last year are also interesting, you might have to look at the original German version to see the graphics as google translate doesn´t display them at least for me.

Berufswunsch von Schülern: Bundeswehr und Polizei an der Spitze

Fragt man Schüler nach ihren Wunsch-Arbeitgebern, stehen Polizei und Bundeswehr ganz vorn. Das ist schon seit Jahren so. Doch auf den Rängen dahinter hat sich nun einiges getan.

www-faz-net.translate.goog

 

[Captkerosene]

I'm genuinely interested in what you disagree with regarding this, @captkerosene

Not sure what the whole comment train was so I'll give you my abbreviated list of general criticisms:

- There is no "tipping point." Makes for a good movie though.
- CO2 is good for plants which is good for animals. The more the better. The negatives associated with increased CO2 in the atmosphere are outweighed ten to one by the positives.
- There is no "existential crisis." If I was terraforming a planet I'd start with much much higher CO2 than we have now. High CO2 makes crop production easier. More crops = no existential crisis.
- Oil and gas use will continue to rise - there's just so much you can do with it. Electric transportation, batteries, solar and wind will thrive. So will plastics, cement, chemicals and fertilizer.
- The Bot and A.I. will 10X the economy over the next 50 years. 8B people will want their own planes, cars, boats, homes and all the things that go along with the abundance provided by a carbon based economy.
- Please don't attribute every weather event to climate change. Where are all the "The weather has been unusually good lately ... must be because of climate change" articles? Funny how climate change only makes the climate worse.
- We're going to be fine. Stop scaring the kids ... it's bad for them. We haven't stolen their futures.
- ESG is a scam.

Going for a record here ... don't forget to dislike!!!

I might even beat my 1) nuclear power is a good idea or 2) Buffett isn't buying Tesla stock, he's probably buying an oil company's stock posts.