Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[growler23]

We famous!

Tesla’s Loyal Retail Fan Club Set to Rev Up Stock’s Recovery

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s grip on its retail trading fans is hard to shake.Most Read from BloombergReady to Buy a House? Just Wait a Few WeeksNATO Should Think Twice Before Accepting Finland and SwedenStocks Trim Gains as Inflation Concerns Increase: Markets WrapGiant Deep Ocean Turbine Trial...

finance.yahoo.com

I like how retail investors are constantly trash talked by the US media and Wall Street who are essentially low-end prostitutes and degenerate(often fraudulent) gamblers.

Indeed, they refer to us retail investors in that article as a "cult"... and describe our cultish behavior of not being swayed by the current Twitter brouhaha from our belief in the fundamental strength of the company as evidenced by its Godlike pronouncements actual published financial results. Wow.

On a related but opposite note I was pretty proud of the way this group summarily, and with published facts, sent the last couple of obvious trolls packing. Hardly even derailed the productive conversation. Well played, TMC, well played.

Whether those trolls were the ones supplying Yahoo Finance with the above story is a matter of pure speculation. I truly can't believe anyone here would suggest that.

 

[willow_hiller]

Some new assets found in the latest Tesla Mobile App worth flagging. In a folder called "fleet_powerflow" there are now animations for "charging_from_grid" and "discharging_to_grid." Sounds like incorporating some form of V2G into fleet management?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531688827806285824

Usual caveats apply. I've seen several undocumented app updates that never made the light of day.

 

[betstarship]

I had an experience with Tesla Service for my Model 3 and it was not only done incredibly quickly, but I think they secretly improved my car somehow. It handles way better.

Pleasantly shocked how cordial and nice the staff were through all interactions too.

 

[stealthyc]

Bike lane intended to be shared with cars? What an edge case. In my state we don't put in useless lanes like "bike lanes intended to be shared with cars" when they serve zero purpose. We just have regular lanes...and once in a while some bicyclist will be on them.

It's not that much of an edge case, I've encountered them in several cities. You are being rather narrow-minded, things are not same everywhere, and actual self-driving needs to be able to handle real world cases properly regardless of how common, especially if they are valid street markings.

One common use is in somewhat narrow residential streets. There is a single center lane and two bike lanes. The streets are two-way. Cars are intended to drive down the center unless an oncoming car is coming, at which point they partially enter the bike lanes to pass each other. I've seen these in several cities in the US. They are called "advisory bike lanes"

The other case, in my neighborhood anyway, is when you have a road split by a double yellow which has a bike lane on either side. At a light sometimes one of sides has a turn lane so to accommodate the center turn lane, the straight lanes shift over slightly, and the bike lane continues, so now the bike lane overlaps about 40% of the lane temporarily.

These sorts of markings are used to improve awareness of bikes.

 

[pitabun]

Bike lane intended to be shared with cars? What an edge case. In my state we don't put in useless lanes like "bike lanes intended to be shared with cars" when they serve zero purpose. We just have regular lanes...and once in a while some bicyclist will be on them.

Definitely not an edge case in CA, at least in OC. FSD beta has to be intervened every time there's a right turn with cars behind you. They'll get confused and honk if you have your right turn signal on and don't merge to the bike lane, if there's room for your car.

 

[Ogre]

Yes, yes, yes!!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531730381187301378

So they spend a few weeks assembling this. Demo it in June for their big event. Spend a few weeks tearing it down. Likely tear down is complete by mid-late July. Air ship it to Texas, then spend August -> September reassembling it. That leaves 2-3 months for testing and beta production? So we could see start of production in early 2023.

Edit: This also makes a Fall 2023 launch unlikely. Tesla doesn't buy equipment like this and let it rust for 9 months.

 

[Singuy]

Definitely not an edge case in CA, at least in OC. FSD beta has to be intervened every time there's a right turn with cars behind you. They'll get confused and honk if you have your right turn signal on and don't merge to the bike lane, if there's room for your car.

All bike lanes are edge cases. Even though they are "common", but if you think about the total road miles with bike lanes, it's like 0.01% of all roads.

I think people are confused what an edge case is..."I see it every day on my way to work" doesn't make it some kind of common thing extrapolated to the entire US.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All bike lanes are edge cases. Even though they are "common", but if you think about the total road miles with bike lanes, it's like 0.01% of all roads.

I think people are confused what an edge case is..."I see it every day on my way to work" doesn't make it some kind of common thing extrapolated to the entire US.

These concerns might be edge cases from a percentage of street miles, but from Tesla-driven miles it's a large proportion. Literally all of Philadelphia is an edge case.

 

[Ogre]

Definitely not an edge case in CA, at least in OC. FSD beta has to be intervened every time there's a right turn with cars behind you. They'll get confused and honk if you have your right turn signal on and don't merge to the bike lane, if there's room for your car.

This is the typical sort of garbage compliance bike lanes you get in cities where people who don't actually ride bikes design the "bike" infrastructure. They get federal incentives for marking out XX miles of bike lanes and rather than making them in places where they would actually be useful they just put them in impractical places.

Gross. But Tesla FSD should handle it. Musk himself said at one time they should be able to handle whatever stupid infrastructure the road builders throw at it.

 

[stealthyc]

All bike lanes are edge cases. Even though they are "common", but if you think about the total road miles with bike lanes, it's like 0.01% of all roads.

I think people are confused what an edge case is..."I see it every day on my way to work" doesn't make it some kind of common thing extrapolated to the entire US.

Sure, that's fair, but you were derisive of the shared case, when it is more common than you think. Also, bike lanes happen to tend to exist in cities so probably are encountered more often than the average road in the US. Either way FSD needs to be able to behave appropriately, and as is, I literally can't go anywhere in my city without several disengagements due to them. And currently at least for one case at an intersection two blocks from my house, the current behavior is to turn left into the oncoming traffic's turn lane on the wrong side of the double yellows, rather than overlapping the bike lane

 

[MadScientist23]

The UK Model 3 inventory is now full of ex leases. Definitely this has become a thing.

How is this counted in the financials? Does the COGS go down as the cost for that unit has already hit the books on initial build and now is a 0 Cost to "build" and thus profit is almost all of the sales price if they choose to sell it?

 

[henchman24]

Today look to be about keeping a cap on the whole market. Nasdaq is above the 20 MA and the hold will be to keep it under 30 day. SP500 is above the 30 day, but sitting right in the middle of 30 and 50. Russell 2000 is in the same spot. Vix getting a rejection at 26 wasn't great, but it also rejected 28.25 and broke lower quick. The bears aren't done yet, but the momentum has certainly shifted.

 

[Pezpunk]

These concerns might be edge cases from a percentage of street miles, but from Tesla-driven miles it's a large proportion. Literally all of Philadelphia is an edge case.

Also DC, Alexandria, every major metro area I’ve been in recently. If this is an “edge case” then FSD will be completely useless.

 

[Singuy]

Sure, that's fair, but you were derisive of the shared case, when it is more common than you think. Also, bike lanes happen to tend to exist in cities so probably are encountered more often than the average road in the US. Either way FSD needs to be able to behave appropriately, and as is, I literally can't go anywhere in my city without several disengagements due to them. And currently at least for one case at an intersection two blocks from my house, the current behavior is to turn left into the oncoming traffic's turn lane on the wrong side of the double yellows, rather than overlapping the bike lane

I didn't understand what a bike laned shared with a road lane was. I thought the car is suppose to drive over the bike lane at all times unless there's bike which seemed weird to me. But if you mean the car needs to cross into the bike lane when needed then that makes more sense.

 

[StateoftheArt]

Not sure what the whole comment train was so I'll give you my abbreviated list of general criticisms:

- There is no "tipping point." Makes for a good movie though.
- CO2 is good for plants which is good for animals. The more the better. The negatives associated with increased CO2 in the atmosphere are outweighed ten to one by the positives.
- There is no "existential crisis." If I was terraforming a planet I'd start with much much higher CO2 than we have now. High CO2 makes crop production easier. More crops = no existential crisis.
- Oil and gas use will continue to rise - there's just so much you can do with it. Electric transportation, batteries, solar and wind will thrive. So will plastics, cement, chemicals and fertilizer.
- The Bot and A.I. will 10X the economy over the next 50 years. 8B people will want their own planes, cars, boats, homes and all the things that go along with the abundance provided by a carbon based economy.
- Please don't attribute every weather event to climate change. Where are all the "The weather has been unusually good lately ... must be because of climate change" articles? Funny how climate change only makes the climate worse.
- We're going to be fine. Stop scaring the kids ... it's bad for them. We haven't stolen their futures.
- ESG is a scam.

Going for a record here ... don't forget to dislike!!!

I might even beat my 1) nuclear power is a good idea or 2) Buffett isn't buying Tesla stock, he's probably buying an oil company's stock posts.

These points are actually evidence based, logical thinking with historical precedent. The "existential" crisis has been complete BS for at least 50 years. Pathetic track record of dire predictions.

Everything opposite of these points are just a cultish/religious type stance. How dare we question "the science" says the holy with their righteous anger? How dare we...

 

[Electroman]

Also DC, Alexandria, every major metro area I’ve been in recently. If this is an “edge case” then FSD will be completely useless.

useless on those roads in a few cities that do have bike lanes. I haven't seen any (or very rare) in Houston or Dallas TX. Definitely not in the suburbs. So to say it is useless because it cannot handle convoluted bike lanes is being very myopic. To a vast majority of people if FSD can handle their daily routes - office commute, grocery store, gym, school - then it is worth every penny of $12k.

 

[Huskyf]

Tried the new FSD Beta software today. Mixed results, mostly it was worse for me than the prior version. I took a round trip of about 2 miles in town and had many disengagements

The good:
It took a sharp right turn much more gracefully than the prior version which would start too wide and then turn extra sharply to correct.
Turning in general was more smooth

The bad (some may be unchanged, I haven't experienced all these situations before):
- Turning on an unprotected left from a stop sign at a T intersection, from the stop line it immediately began the left turn as it creeped, completely blocking the oncoming lane, rather than creeping straight out into the intersection before making the left turn.
- It tried to turn left at a red light (no cars were coming... I stopped it 1/4 into the intersection, visualization still showed red light clearly)
- A lane began being phased out by cones, and rather than slowing down and attempting a lane change, it accelerated at the cones, leaving no opportunity for a lane change
- It doesn't understand little pedestrian warning flexible bollards bordering the lane. It displays them as cones and kept trying to come to a stop.
- While the visualization of the cars is sharper, it was showing a lot of ghost vehicles in the oncoming traffic lane when stopped at a light
- a road worker had a stop sign in my lane, and it seemed to treat it as a regular stop sign, wanting to come to a stop at the sign, not well before it

The unchanged:
- Still can't handle half the streets near me, due to it not being able to handle a bike line intended to be shared with cars. It refuses to straddle the dashed line like it should, sometimes preferring to cross a double yellow
- It still does not understand railroad lights and thinks they are traffic lights, resulting in it trying to run a red light at a particular intersection
- It still prefers maps over the reality of the roads in cases that matter to me. There is an offset intersection which maps think you need to turn left then right to cross, so it gets in the turn lane, but in reality the signage and the intersection intend for you to be in the straight lane and just jog left a little to "go straight"

I'm bullish about FSD overall and it's interesting to try out, but man it's got so far to go for it to be generally useful/usable where I live, and sometimes it really perplexes me with the wrong things it does that seem like they should be simple to address.

Did you try to re calibrate yours cameras ? And reboot

 

[jerry33]

Bike lane intended to be shared with cars? What an edge case. In my state we don't put in useless lanes like "bike lanes intended to be shared with cars" when they serve zero purpose. We just have regular lanes...and once in a while some bicyclist will be on them.

The problem with non-shared bike lanes is that all the garbage and broken glass ends up in them making them unusable by bicycles. Making the curb lane wider without a divider is the best solution. 4.5-6 m is the correct width for the curb lane.

 

[Singuy]

Also DC, Alexandria, every major metro area I’ve been in recently. If this is an “edge case” then FSD will be completely useless.

The rest of the industry sure thinks every single square inch of roads are edge cases, that's why they HD map them.

 

[NicoV]

All bike lanes are edge cases. Even though they are "common", but if you think about the total road miles with bike lanes, it's like 0.01% of all roads.

I think people are confused what an edge case is..."I see it every day on my way to work" doesn't make it some kind of common thing extrapolated to the entire US.

FSD will need to work in Europe too, and we are building more and more road infrastructure dedicated to bikes. Where I live practically all major roads have dedicated bike lanes In order to protect the bikers from the cars. In cities we also have ‘bike suggestion lanes’, which are brightly colored and which can be used by cars if traffic conditions require moving to the right (if no bike is occupying the lane).
Recently we also got bike streets, where bikes get the priority and cars need to stay behind the bikers. This is a concept that is very un-American .