Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Salesforce with it's 3.7% beat on earnings today and it's 108 PE ratio is up 8% after hours. Must be nice!

 

[Usain]

I'm so excited as I've had to defend against FUD that Tesla is or has paused progress on CT due to issues with 4680s. The gigapress progress authentication by Elon demonstrates that it is on track for early Q1 ramp.... possibly earlier if no other critical path items gate key milestones....yes, I used to be a technical product manager and yes, I've been watching closely for 4680s to get into new Model Y customer hands...which is the biggest milestone for...well... sustainable energy.

It's a good data point to be sure. And I see no sign that 4680 development is under-performing expectations. But I also don't see 4680 development as something that can be predicted with any accuracy. The timing of volume production of 4680 is still unknown.

Probably, Tesla is actually expecting 4680 to reach high volume much earlier than they have let on, just so they have some wiggle-room. But it's going to be like anything you try to do for the first time. You never know what might derail your plans.

 

[Discoducky]

An example of said FUD...

Autoevolution article from an engineer at Bosch with a quote...

"Until an independent party disassembles a battery pack with these (4680) cells and tests them, we’re just concerned for the customers with batteries in their cars that may not be mature enough for production. If they were, Panasonic would be manufacturing them – and that will not be the case until 2023 in the best-case scenario."

 

[ZachF]

US Steel’s revenue in 1917 was about 0.6% of world GDP and Standard Oil and GM were about 0.5% each of world GDP in 1929… the only other entity that I can think of that may have beaten GM’s 1% share in 1955 is perhaps the British East India Company…?

Getting to $4T in revenue by 2040 is achieved by current 50% CAGR slowing to 30% by 2026 reaching $420b, then 25% CAGR to 2030 with $1T in revenue, then 15% CAGR through the 2030s leads us to $4T in revenue in 2040.

 

[Flehmenlips]

Explaining my Disagree

First, every poster should be aware that this forum is populated by serious experts in an incredibly broad range of disciplines. Consider this before posting options built from Facebook level “data” as facts. It’s often said that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Read up on the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Full disclosure- I hold a PhD in physics. I’m certain there are many other PhDs here in all kinds of areas.

What you said - “How dare we question the science” is wrong on two counts.

First, climate change denialism as expressed in this thread today was not presented as “questioning” or reasoned debate - no facts or evidence were presented, no scientific papers cited. Only opinions presented as facts. “There is no tipping point” This, to me, screams ignorance of well established science.

Second, “questioning” scientific theories is literally the life’s work of every scientist in the world. The greatest scientific impacts come from overturning accepted scientific models with new compelling evidence or transformational thinking. There are undoubtedly thousands of scientists worldwide testing every aspect of climate change science and data.

The evidence for alarmingly rapid climate change is overwhelming, from many different kinds of studies worldwide. The fact that the overwhelming majority of scientists have come to this conclusion underscores how strong the evidence is.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk

My apologies if I have unwittingly given credence to troll-ish behavior or posts, but I do genuinely appreciate alternative viewpoints to my own. Unlike most of you amazing contributors, I do not spend enough consistent time here to immediately recognize when someone may be chumming the waters...

 

[WattsHappening]

Good to see Aunt Cathie buying more shares today. A tiny number, but she seems to be back to buying mode. We can argue about whether she is sticking to her guns on some poor performing stocks (GM, seriously?), but it's hard to agree with her timing of selling and buying TSLA.

 

[slacker775]

Good to see Aunt Cathie buying more shares today. A tiny number, but she seems to be back to buying mode. We can argue about whether she is sticking to her guns on some poor performing stocks (GM, seriously?), but it's hard to agree with her timing of selling and buying TSLA.

I think with a fund like ARKK, you can’t track the buy and sells entirely as indicators of conviction. As money is flowing in and out, they have to balance those funds against their allocation in the portfolio. You’d think that with Ark’s Tesla thesis, they would be full on HODL, but when the fund loses massive amounts of capital, they have to sell portions of their positions to pay out and keep the whole thing from getting too lopsided in various individual holdings.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Not sure what the whole comment train was so I'll give you my abbreviated list of general criticisms:

- There is no "tipping point." Makes for a good movie though.
- CO2 is good for plants which is good for animals. The more the better. The negatives associated with increased CO2 in the atmosphere are outweighed ten to one by the positives.
- There is no "existential crisis." If I was terraforming a planet I'd start with much much higher CO2 than we have now. High CO2 makes crop production easier. More crops = no existential crisis.
- Oil and gas use will continue to rise - there's just so much you can do with it. Electric transportation, batteries, solar and wind will thrive. So will plastics, cement, chemicals and fertilizer.
- The Bot and A.I. will 10X the economy over the next 50 years. 8B people will want their own planes, cars, boats, homes and all the things that go along with the abundance provided by a carbon based economy.
- Please don't attribute every weather event to climate change. Where are all the "The weather has been unusually good lately ... must be because of climate change" articles? Funny how climate change only makes the climate worse.
- We're going to be fine. Stop scaring the kids ... it's bad for them. We haven't stolen their futures.
- ESG is a scam.

Going for a record here ... don't forget to dislike!!!

I might even beat my 1) nuclear power is a good idea or 2) Buffett isn't buying Tesla stock, he's probably buying an oil company's stock posts.

Interesting concept that you’d like the CO2 atmosphere concertation to be over 1200 PPM instead of a meager 400. You might want to go back to dinosaur precambrian era where there was no ice at the poles and Earth was once great Pangea not even requiring air travel to cross oceans.

The only problem if you triple the CO2 concentration these days is that you make all the equatorial Earth habitants to migrate in mass away from newly created Furnace Creeks and cause political instability in those sectors going through droughts and all their crops being destroyed. You might not give a damn when you live in a rich country where you can buy 20 hamburgers for $20 at McDonalds but there is a whole portion of the planet habitants who are going to suffer from the oil we burn to grow the world’s economy endlessly.

It’s not a tipping point where all the humans die at once but every year I see people dying from dehydration and heat chocs after the increasingly more frequent heat waves.

 

[Accident]

useless on those roads in a few cities that do have bike lanes. I haven't seen any (or very rare) in Houston or Dallas TX. Definitely not in the suburbs. So to say it is useless because it cannot handle convoluted bike lanes is being very myopic. To a vast majority of people if FSD can handle their daily routes - office commute, grocery store, gym, school - then it is worth every penny of $12k.

Dallas is the city with the lowest number of people who ride their bike to work in the country at 0.1%. Houston has less than 1% pedestrian commuters and it’s still one of the highest in pedestrians deaths, and a lot of those suburbs don’t even have sidewalks. Urban planning in TX just sucks in general.

It’s going to continue to be a challenge for the FSD team to account for regionalities. What can be considered par for the course for drivers in some cities, can be considered an edge case by others. The good news is that Tesla has the luxury of having FSD beta drivers all over the country. If they want to focus on improving right turns with bike lanes, it’s as easy as pulling data from places with unprotected bike lanes.

 

[Accident]

I think with a fund like ARKK, you can’t track the buy and sells entirely as indicators of conviction. As money is flowing in and out, they have to balance those funds against their allocation in the portfolio. You’d think that with Ark’s Tesla thesis, they would be full on HODL, but when the fund loses massive amounts of capital, they have to sell portions of their positions to pay out and keep the whole thing from getting too lopsided in various individual holdings.

They don’t report trades that happen after inflows/outflows.

“This email only reflects portfolio adjustments made by the ARK investment team. Files of trades are not comprehensive lists of a day's trades for the ARK ETFs and exclude initial/secondary public offering transactions and ETF Creation/Redemption”

 

[ggr]

Mod: We're going to stop talking about climate change in this thread too. Now. --ggr

 

[phoggy123]

I'm going to love seeing idiots like this drive the Cyber Truck. Also I see this all the time that basically it doesn't do everything I need today...so why even try! By the time these trucks reach the rural areas they will probably have fast charging everywhere and they will realize they "fill up" in their garages every night anyways.

 

[Nolimits]

Just another reference point and a reminder for myself to not sell any shares. - Wait times on tesla website: for model Y now Dec 2022-mar2023.

 

[Discoducky]

No more remote work at Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531810291222192130

Not sure that email is legit...a few folks say they haven't seen it in engineering...

 

[thesmokingman]

Isn't it also highly inappropriate to be sharing internal emails?

 

[MC3OZ]

Sadly I agree. Without Tesla around to threaten to eat traditional automakers' lunch, they could -- even now -- easily implement any number of anti-consumer business practices that drag the transition out for many years. Dealer mark-ups, nonsensical engineering decisions designed to drive up service revenue (thereby making EVs less of a value proposition), production limitations, MSRP increases, etc.

IMO many people are overly pessimistic about the pace of the transition to clean energy and transport, and the positive impacts it will have in terms of deflation and growth.

For example in Australia wholesale electricity prices are hitting unheard of high numbers.

Coal generation is close to the $300 MWh price cap, as a result many business lobbys who previously wanted to go slow on clean energy, now want to go fast.

Coal has been hollowed out dispruption fron clean energy has caused them to skimp on maintenance and minimize long term fuel contracts. As a result a lot of plant is broken and heading for early retirement, and fuel is expensive. The only sensible approach is to ramp up the rollout of clean energy and transmission upgrades.

For EVs, everyone forgets about the Chinese who are perhaps an even bigger threat to legacy auto than Tesla. We can't see it yet, but it is likely that the ICE industry is being hollowed out. Demand will drop, companies will slow down production or close some plants, eventually service revenues will drop and dealerships will need to consolidate.
Marketing budgets may be directed to their newer EV products.

From memory the price of the average new EV in China is only 10% more than the average new ICE. Regardless of the actual number, the price gap is closing fast.

Price parity in China means price parity worldwide with 3-5 years, depending only on the tariffs put on imported Chinese EVs.

The day when the world wakes up to China, is the day opponents forget about Tesla.

 

[MC3OZ]

Agree on renewables, but for EVs we are not there yet since Tesla still has such a huge lead, they (legacy ICE) would fold up their plans and go back to full ICE if Tesla were removed from the picture. They know they have a snowballs chance in hell of coming through this transition without losing a ton of their brands, status and just to survive.

I think Elon could only take a step back once 4680s, FSD, CT and Semi are fully ramped and yes, I think the 4 factories humming along will demonstrate EVs are here to stay.

Also, Elon had a 'driver' back in 2014 that I worked with and he was much more than a driver.

When people say Tesla has a big lead, the relevant comparison is a Chinese BYD EV to an ICE car at around the same price.

It doesn't matter how much better Tesla is than BYD, what matters is if the BYD EV is value for money.

And in terms of scaling production Tesla will be first, but BYD, VW and a few others are vying for 2nd. In truth I doubt BYD is aiming for 2nd on anything, they are aiming higher.

I don't think EV competition will be bad for Tesla and it is great for the mission. A more traditional ICE buyer has a choice between a Tesla and a slightly cheaper Chinese EV. The bias against China will help Tesla sales for a few years. It might also help legacy auto if they can get into the race.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The roof on GigaTexas is getting rapidly populated with solar, and a megapack station is planned to start construction next door just north of the factory. The goal is not only to be self-sufficient, but to be a local power producer for export.

Interesting.

However, I wonder what measures will be in place at Fremont. I don't remember in previous years what happened when rolling blackouts went through the Bay Area, did they idle Fremont or keep it operating?

 

[jbcarioca]

A common refrain among economists has been the risk to the economy from inflation and supply chain and reversal of quantitative easing are much less serious problems than the banking and credit crisis that tanked the economy over a decade ago. This note could be read as an early warning sign of a looming credit crisis. That, on top of everything else, could be very bad news for the economy and the stock market and therefore Tesla and TSLA.

My *guess* is that Credit Suise is taking precautions due to a recent fall in stock values that moved them from green to yellow in risk. If the stock market at least stabilizes here, this is unlikely to be a near term problem

The major Swiss, UK and EU banks all have major Russian exposure. Credit Suisse is more exposed than are most others, although Deutsche Bank is more deeply exposed than perhaps any other. In both of those cases and those of major UK banks much of that risk is classified as another country risk due to the non-Russian domicile of much of that risk. Specifically much of these are domiciled in Cyprus and much of the security is located in Germany, UK and Italy with large U.S. positions also.

We have not yet seen the actual extent of losses on these assets. It takes a year or two for all that to work through the system. The bloodbath on on it’s way.

 

[Discoducky]

Here's to hoping that Cramer isn't the normal wrong way predictor...

CNBC: Charts suggest 'it's going to be a very nice summer' for stocks, Jim Cramer says.

Charts suggest 'it's going to be a very nice summer' for stocks, Jim Cramer says

"Larry Williams perfectly called the bottom the week before last. Now his analysis suggests we've got a lot more room to run," the "Mad Money" host said.

www.cnbc.com