bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The only mass exodus Tesla has seen is from California to Texas. Former VP at Tesla that is a friend of mine said that there was no shortage of volunteers wanting to move to Texas, especially in the higher echelons.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The only mass exodus Tesla has seen is from California to Texas. Former VP at Tesla that is a friend of mine said that there was no shortage of volunteers wanting to move to Texas, especially in the higher echelons.
I am certain that those surveys take into information that came out TODAY. Never said it is illegal. I am a Software Engineer and working in an office that takes at least an hour commute (traffic in Chicago sucks) is a productivity killer. My son is a software engineer for M1 Finance and he never has worked in an office. Before that he worked for Capital One and worked from home. I have worked with many Microsoft product group software engineers who worked all over the country, not in Redmond. Make people want to work for you and you will be amazed at the productivity.
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-- INVESTOR ALERT: FSD BETA 10.12.2 is GOOD!!! --
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Elon's answer is quite likely coming to fruition:
-- INVESTOR ALERT: FSD BETA 10.12.2 is GOOD!!! --
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Elon's answer is quite likely coming to fruition:
Krugerrand
Meow
Wrong attitude person for Tesla. Simple. Doesn’t matter how talented someone is if they aren’t onboard with the mission.
I’ve hired and fired people. Meh. Do your job, do it to the best of your ability, and I’ll give you a paycheck for an agreed upon sum. No, no particular issues keeping good people. That’s what the interview process is for; both parties to determine if they are suited to each other.
Honestly it was more the presentation not the policy. A executive going to people saying you can work from home then basically in fine print says "When it is over 40 hours per week". Saying we need to be working together in the office and unless you have previous approval to work remotely you need to be in the office.
Maybe it was because my business was consulting and nothing soured clients more than consultants resigning and projects experience disruption. Often results in free time and give backs. I was very proud to lead the company in the smallest amount of give backs because my people were more than just meat to me. My attrition was usually around 5% a year. Now that I am an independent software engineer as semi retired. When I need a new gig, my former employees jump at the chance to give me leads.
Krugerrand
Meow
Don’t move the goalposts of the discussion.
Nonetheless, any employees who don’t like Elon’s delivery are free to go somewhere else. Anybody with half a brain and the ability to Google, already knows life balance is off at Elon run companies. That he works harder than anyone else and that he’s demanding. It’s why a lot of people burn out and don’t stay more than a handful of years. That’s the way it is. Tesla doesn’t make forks. The Mission is everything. Thankfully, millions of people want to be part of that mission and aren’t nearly as sensitive as you.
lafrisbee
Active Member
The Queen of my ant mound is a true ant. She has a doctorate is Stochastics and is a whiz in Python. Working from home is at the top of her list for job satisfaction.
She works a solid 10-12 hours a day 6-7 days a week. I drag her out to eat lunch and watch a 22 minute sitcom for lunch, and make her stop for 1-3 hours in the evening for Dinner.
A most well-known computer company's AI labs was having an issue getting the math right to explain some software they wanted to crow about in some Professional Journal. The thing was they hadn't found anyone that could understand and explain the software in mathematical terms for three months. And they had 2 people try and fail. She wanted to do some work in AI because she wasn't being challenged enough in her current role with the company so she sent an email. They sent her the issue. One week-end, and she had all the math figured out...and gave some insight to clean up some of the programming.
AI labs contacted her two weeks ago elated that the Paper was accepted.
But before all that, when this company was bringing back its employees she had a conversation with her boss... her boss's boss's boss had a video chat with her and guaranteed her she could work from home for as long as she wanted.
There is no truer introvert. She is gracious AND awkward when in a crowd. She is happiest in front of her 3 screens. I go a feeling Elon gives her kind a pass...and he has some understanding of her...though she is extremely limited to those two areas, not like Elon.
(This post was brought out of me by all the comments of others posting less than positive comments of those who function best when left alone...)
She works a solid 10-12 hours a day 6-7 days a week. I drag her out to eat lunch and watch a 22 minute sitcom for lunch, and make her stop for 1-3 hours in the evening for Dinner.
A most well-known computer company's AI labs was having an issue getting the math right to explain some software they wanted to crow about in some Professional Journal. The thing was they hadn't found anyone that could understand and explain the software in mathematical terms for three months. And they had 2 people try and fail. She wanted to do some work in AI because she wasn't being challenged enough in her current role with the company so she sent an email. They sent her the issue. One week-end, and she had all the math figured out...and gave some insight to clean up some of the programming.
AI labs contacted her two weeks ago elated that the Paper was accepted.
But before all that, when this company was bringing back its employees she had a conversation with her boss... her boss's boss's boss had a video chat with her and guaranteed her she could work from home for as long as she wanted.
There is no truer introvert. She is gracious AND awkward when in a crowd. She is happiest in front of her 3 screens. I go a feeling Elon gives her kind a pass...and he has some understanding of her...though she is extremely limited to those two areas, not like Elon.
(This post was brought out of me by all the comments of others posting less than positive comments of those who function best when left alone...)
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Arizona was just one example, but solar is about the same price across the whole American Southwest including Nevada, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico and California. Good news is that wind is also getting this cheap in the Southwest.Do you have stats on Arizona? I’d like to bookmark that for reference, very intriguing!
Solar has a faster rate of cost decline than wind and as most of the cost structure gradually withers away to nothing, the primary remaining costs will be for land and electricity transmission to the load. When land is the main cost, what matters is the price per acre and the amount of insolation per acre. Southern Arizona, with its dirt cheap land and intense year-round sunshine, will probably in the future have the lowest cost energy generation in the USA. Then, to eliminate transmission costs, southern Arizona may develop into a hotspot for energy-intensive industries like steel and aluminum smelting and metal recycling.
As the map shows, for solar Arizona as a whole has the best long term potential because it’s the sunniest state in the USA and has a lot of cheap land that actually could benefit ecologically from the shade and water concentration a solar farm provides. Parts of southeastern California, southern New Mexico, and western Texas are also strong candidates, and land in these regions is dirt cheap as well.
Sustainable ranching may also be done to earn extra income and keep the plant growth trimmed.
Do Solar Panels Heat and Dry the Ground?
Solar panels depend on energy from the sun. Energy from the sun creates heat. But do solar panels heat up their surroundings? Read more on solars effects here.
unboundsolar.com
Solar panels provide several benefits:
- They provide shade to areas normally exposed to intense sunlight.
- This cools vegetation during the day while warming it at night as panels help retain the heat lost to contact with the cool night air.
- While a solar system can change the light dynamics of an area, crops grow at approximately the same rate with or without solar panels.
- In many cases, a panel system can provide opportunities to grow shade-tolerant or shade-dependent crops that might otherwise struggle to develop.
- Some ranchers even like to graze sheep and cattle around panels as a simple way to maintain overgrown vegetation.
Solar panels also:
- Protect your soil by blocking the wind and limiting erosion
- Preserve soil nutrients and water
- Provide habitat and food for bees and butterfly pollinators
- Save your irrigation water from evaporation
$20/MWh is currently the low end of solar & wind Power Purchase Agreements in the American Southwest for the last couple years. The average is about $25-30/MWh even with many bids now including a few hours of battery storage as part of the package. I think that’s probably about equivalent to the $10-15/MWh projects in the Middle East after accounting for the differential in wages for labor and vehicle fuel costs. Prices have risen since 2020 though because of the supply crunch and logistics hell.
Mexico has even more potential for cheap solar, but in cursory research it looks to me like the Mexican federal government has put up major regulatory hurdles to installing solar and wind. Mexico had bids around $20/MWh on average 5 years ago. Someday I think the dam will break and Mexico will tap the immense solar resource in their deserts to build up their economy and help make AC much more affordable for the 84% of Mexican households that don't currently have AC to help them get through the brutal summer heat that gets worse every year. Canadians will pay more for power than Americans and Mexicans, but it'll still be a lot cheaper than power today that mostly comes from hydroelectric plants.
For bookmarking I’d recommend checking out the annual reports from Lazard, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.
US solar PPA prices may continue to rise until new supply chains emerge
Prices for power purchase agreements have been rising steadily since the end of last year. According to solar developers, interconnection delays, permitting challenges, and supply chain constraints are likely to keep them high.
www.pv-magazine.com
Mexico’s power auction pre-selects 16 bids with average price of $20.57/MWh and 2.56 GW of combined capacity
According to the auction’s preliminary results, solar may account for 55% of contracted power with 3.0 TWh. Final results will be announced on November 22.
www.pv-magazine.com
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ZachF
Active Member
They probably wouldn’t even need to offer a raise, as moving from the Bay Area to TX is like a ~50% pay raise just from taxes and CoL…
ZachF
Active Member
Arizona was just one example, but solar is about the same price across the whole American Southwest including Nevada, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico and California. Good news is that wind is also getting this cheap in the Southwest.
View attachment 811534
Solar has a faster rate of cost decline than wind and as most of the cost structure gradually withers away to nothing, the primary remaining costs will be for land and electricity transmission to the load. When land is the main cost, what matters is the price per acre and the amount of insolation per acre. Southern Arizona, with its dirt cheap land and intense year-round sunshine, will probably in the future have the lowest cost energy generation in the USA. Then, to eliminate transmission costs, southern Arizona may develop into a hotspot for energy-intensive industries like steel and aluminum smelting and metal recycling.
As the map shows, for solar Arizona as a whole has the best long term potential because it’s the sunniest state in the USA and has a lot of cheap land that actually could benefit ecologically from the shade and water concentration a solar farm provides. Parts of southeastern California, southern New Mexico, and western Texas are also strong candidates, and land in these regions is dirt cheap as well.
Sustainable ranching may also be done to earn extra income and keep the plant growth trimmed.
Do Solar Panels Heat and Dry the Ground?
Solar panels depend on energy from the sun. Energy from the sun creates heat. But do solar panels heat up their surroundings? Read more on solars effects here.
Solar panels provide several benefits:
- They provide shade to areas normally exposed to intense sunlight.
- This cools vegetation during the day while warming it at night as panels help retain the heat lost to contact with the cool night air.
- While a solar system can change the light dynamics of an area, crops grow at approximately the same rate with or without solar panels.
- In many cases, a panel system can provide opportunities to grow shade-tolerant or shade-dependent crops that might otherwise struggle to develop.
- Some ranchers even like to graze sheep and cattle around panels as a simple way to maintain overgrown vegetation.
Solar panels also:
- Protect your soil by blocking the wind and limiting erosion
- Preserve soil nutrients and water
- Provide habitat and food for bees and butterfly pollinators
- Save your irrigation water from evaporation
View attachment 811543
$20/MWh is currently the low end of solar & wind Power Purchase Agreements in the American Southwest for the last couple years. The average is about $25-30/MWh even with many bids now including storage as part of the package. I think that’s probably about equivalent to the $10-15/MWh projects in the Middle East after accounting for the differential in wages for labor and vehicle fuel costs. Prices have risen since 2020 though because of the supply crunch and logistics hell.
Mexico has even more potential for cheap solar, but in cursory research it looks to me like the Mexican federal government has put up major regulatory hurdles to installing solar and wind. Mexico had bids around $20/MWh on average 5 years ago. Someday I think the dam will break and Mexico will tap the immense solar resource in their deserts to build up their economy and help make AC much more affordable for the 84% of Mexican households that don't currently have AC to help them get through the brutal summer heat that gets worse every year. Canadians will pay more for power than Americans and Mexicans, but it'll still be a lot cheaper than power today that mostly comes from hydroelectric plants.
For bookmarking I’d recommend checking out the annual reports from Lazard, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.
US solar PPA prices may continue to rise until new supply chains emerge
Prices for power purchase agreements have been rising steadily since the end of last year. According to solar developers, interconnection delays, permitting challenges, and supply chain constraints are likely to keep them high.
Mexico’s power auction pre-selects 16 bids with average price of $20.57/MWh and 2.56 GW of combined capacity
According to the auction’s preliminary results, solar may account for 55% of contracted power with 3.0 TWh. Final results will be announced on November 22.
The most important factor for selecting locations is how much they produce at the minimum (January), and in that case the map shifts a bit east to NM and western Texas.
Texas will be at the center of the future North American industrial corridor, which will be a swath that extends from Indiana down through Texas and into Mexico.
I drive most of the same roads he did all the time, so it will be interesting to compare. It's funny because there are so many problem areas just within a couple blocks of where he drove that I encounter all the time. Regardless it was mostly good driving, and I look forward to trying to reproduce it.
But also, why oh why can't it respect no turn on red. It's very obvious signage that I'm sure would be trivial for them to read, and it is breaking the law all the time (or requiring interventions) due to it.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Good point, for industries dependent on continual production all year New Mexico or Texas would be a better choice. Maybe they will develop more than Arizona. There's a lot of potential for the population of Southern California to bring some manufacturing back locally while reducing wildfire risk and helping make the land more drought-resistant.The most important factor for selecting locations is how much they produce at the minimum (January), and in that case the map shifts a bit east to NM and western Texas.
Texas will be at the center of the future North American industrial corridor, which will be a swath that extends from Indiana down through Texas and into Mexico.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
TSLA in the Macro Context
Not investment or financial advice, just sharing what I'm thinking.
NASDAQ
Nov ‘21 Peak:
TSLA Actuals
Nov ‘21 Peak:
TSLA Baseline Expectations In This Macroeconomic Context
Maximum Drop from Peak:
Discussion
TSLA has significantly outperformed its Beta during this market crash since November, and thus I would not attribute the price decline primarily to Elon selling last year, the Twitter stuff, market manipulation, 12/9 conspiracy, Shanghai shutdown, Elon's political fights, nor any of the other drama. These days TSLA is owned by so many passive index funds and active funds benchmarked against the indices that its fortunes are tightly coupled to the broad stock market in the short term, and then market volatility (up or down) is amplified by TSLA’s gigantic options market, sentiment-based trading, and sensitive response to Fed actions as a growth company. The things we have been so concerned about probably have much less impact than we think. Maybe Tesla would've outperformed to an even higher degree without these negative factors, but in the end the simplest explanation with the most empirical support is that Tesla tends to be whipped around by the general stock market and that's mostly what has happened in the last 7 months.
In the next couple years, the spectacular earnings growth will squash the P/E ratio to levels where even "value investors" are willing to scoop up shares at substantially higher prices than our all time high, let alone today's discount prices. Unless, that is, the market is smarter than that and begins to comprehend the dominance and earnings trajectory and wants to buy in before the growth hits. If so, maybe we will see a 2024 sequel to the Epic Tesla FOMO/Short Burn/Gamma Squeeze Rallies of 2013 and 2020-2021, and then the bears can go back to complaining about TSLA having a 100 forward P/E ratio while the stock's at $5,000+.
Also, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 will probably recover, given enough time, dragging TSLA back up even faster due to the 2.1 Beta.
I believe many investors have been falling victim to the base rate fallacy, which happens even to people who are smart and thoughtful unless they deliberately avoid it (link). Having a lot of knowledge in a subject area unfortunately increases the risk of this happening.
Not investment or financial advice, just sharing what I'm thinking.
Not investment or financial advice, just sharing what I'm thinking.
NASDAQ
Nov ‘21 Peak:
16050
May ‘21 Minimum:11300
Open Today:12200
Maximum Drop:30%
Drop from Peak to Today:24%
TSLA Actuals
Nov ‘21 Peak:
$1240
May ‘21 Minimum:$620
Open Today:$760
Maximum Drop:50%
Drop from Peak to Today:39%
Beta:2.1
TSLA Baseline Expectations In This Macroeconomic Context
Maximum Drop from Peak:
30% * 2.1 = 63%
May ‘21 Bottom Would’ve Been:$460
Current Drop from Peak:24% *2.1 = 50%
Today’s Price Would Be:$1240 * 0.5 = $620
Outperformance:1 - $760 / $620 = 23% better than baseline expectation over the last 7 months
Discussion
TSLA has significantly outperformed its Beta during this market crash since November, and thus I would not attribute the price decline primarily to Elon selling last year, the Twitter stuff, market manipulation, 12/9 conspiracy, Shanghai shutdown, Elon's political fights, nor any of the other drama. These days TSLA is owned by so many passive index funds and active funds benchmarked against the indices that its fortunes are tightly coupled to the broad stock market in the short term, and then market volatility (up or down) is amplified by TSLA’s gigantic options market, sentiment-based trading, and sensitive response to Fed actions as a growth company. The things we have been so concerned about probably have much less impact than we think. Maybe Tesla would've outperformed to an even higher degree without these negative factors, but in the end the simplest explanation with the most empirical support is that Tesla tends to be whipped around by the general stock market and that's mostly what has happened in the last 7 months.
In the next couple years, the spectacular earnings growth will squash the P/E ratio to levels where even "value investors" are willing to scoop up shares at substantially higher prices than our all time high, let alone today's discount prices. Unless, that is, the market is smarter than that and begins to comprehend the dominance and earnings trajectory and wants to buy in before the growth hits. If so, maybe we will see a 2024 sequel to the Epic Tesla FOMO/Short Burn/Gamma Squeeze Rallies of 2013 and 2020-2021, and then the bears can go back to complaining about TSLA having a 100 forward P/E ratio while the stock's at $5,000+.
Also, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 will probably recover, given enough time, dragging TSLA back up even faster due to the 2.1 Beta.
I believe many investors have been falling victim to the base rate fallacy, which happens even to people who are smart and thoughtful unless they deliberately avoid it (link). Having a lot of knowledge in a subject area unfortunately increases the risk of this happening.
In experiments, people have been found to prefer individuating information over general information when the former is available.[6][7][8]
In some experiments, students were asked to estimate the grade point averages (GPAs) of hypothetical students. When given relevant statistics about GPA distribution, students tended to ignore them if given descriptive information about the particular student even if the new descriptive information was obviously of little or no relevance to school performance.[7] This finding has been used to argue that interviews are an unnecessary part of the college admissions process because interviewers are unable to pick successful candidates better than basic statistics.
Not investment or financial advice, just sharing what I'm thinking.
Last edited:
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Several months ago there were a couple of TMC posters who provided a detailed spreadsheet of a Tesla supplier spreadsheet showing required component dates for Tesla models. It noted current models and also included information on Cybertruck, Semi and a van I believe. It looked legit although could have been made up. Can't seem to find this, so if those who provided the information can repost for discussion, much appreciated.
Specifically, for Cybertruck the supplier required component dates were noted for October, 2023. This would lead me to believe that Cybertruck would be ramping in Q4 2023. Is there any information from Elon or Tesla, or a credible resource, that Cybertruck is scheduled to ramp in Q1 2023? If so please provide.
Tesla has expressly stated Cybertruck to commence production in 2023, not January 2023. This time last year many here (me included) thought Austin and Berlin would be pumping out Model Ys by January 2022, and we now know that was delayed by six months. Now we have Cybertruck using a exoskeleton manufacturing process never undertaken on an automobile. Further, unlike Ford, Rivian and Lucid which have designed their manufacturing around a 100k annual run rate, Tesla is designing their manufacturing around a million annual run rate. Totally different beast. If Tesla was only planning on making 100k a year, they would already be pumping out Cybertrucks. Tesla is thinking smart, thinking long term and thinking right. Let's give them the opportunity to make sure they get it right. My realistic expectation is for Cybertruck production ramp commencing in Q4 2023.
Soo...they can join the other 2 public companies...or 2 private startups he manages/owns!!!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
~140 days to Q3 ER:
"Time takes too much time" (Maloko 1999).
"Time takes too much time" (Maloko 1999).
Ford CEO predicts industry consolidation: ‘There's a shakeout coming'
Jim Farley sees impending consolidation among dealership groups, suppliers and automakers as the industry transitions to EVs.
www.autonews.com
Someone is seeing the inevitable!
This. Everytime Elon does something that runs counter to how I would normally approach something (high touch customer service, remote work), I have to mentally slam on the brakes, and stop myself, and ask, “is this really going to impact them and what they are doing now or in the mid-term?” So far, the answer is “no.” I will admit it has been a learning experience - learning to balance and constantly juggle things that have been core to my success in other businesses, against how Tesla operates/is successful. As an aside, I would love to learn Elon’s rationale for some of these decisions. It would help resolve my cognitive dissonance. For now I have the TMC hive mind.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
GM's decision to discount the Bolt is interesting to me. First, the pricing referenced in the article below represents usually deep discounts during a time when all car prices are all going north. Next, the idea that someone might be attracted to those low prices would actually find a dealership that wouldn't gouge them to oblivion is comical. Just because GM chooses to offer a bottom of the barrel MSRP, doesn't mean that the dealer won't look at the competition's pricing and fill most of that gap with markups. Also, while LG has "fixed" the batteries, have they really? Elon is on record as saying prismatic pouch cells are problematic. I don't think that's "fixable", rather it seems likely that the new LG design reduces the number of thermal runaways from the currently known causes? I guess we'll see...GM is no doubt losing money on each Bolt they sell and it's likely justified per up thread comments re: ZEV credits. Certainly a different business model than Tesla. I wouldn't recommend any company follow Mary, the leader, down this road!
BTW, I love the continued use of "Tesla killer". It makes me laugh and reminds me not to let my guard down to the bias...
www.thestreet.com
BTW, I love the continued use of "Tesla killer". It makes me laugh and reminds me not to let my guard down to the bias...
GM Cuts The Price of Its Anti-Tesla Weapon - TheStreet
The legacy automaker is determined to reshuffle the cards in the electric vehicle sector.
www.thestreet.com
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Whompy wheels, do you remember this obsession of TSLAQ? I believe the guy who started RealTesla is "Keef Wivaneff" who has been around for many years coming up with crap on Tesla and was shown to be submitting fake NTHSA complaints about the suspensions back in 2016.
Well it's 2022, and he's still obsessed about whompy wheels! And he didn't like me calling him out.
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