Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Tesla Economist offers an interesting perspective on Tesla / Indonesia future as the launching point for Robotaxi.

... and he put my TMC name in the title, so it must be true!

 

[Hock1]

I wouldn't be surprised to see more manufacturers pump out vehicles at a loss to undercut Tesla and each other

Rivian's R1T and R1S were massively underpriced early on for what they were. GM now with the Bolt and the F-150 Pro starting price seems impossibly low in terms of turning a profit. Competitors will look to saturate the market as much as possible.


Great for consumers and great for the quest to reduce emissions, the beauty of competition

The problem with undercutting other manufacturers and Tesla at a loss is that it cannot be maintained because every EV they sell at a loss is supplanting a gas car sale that would have made them very positive gross margins. It's a death spiral that, to me, seems inevitable.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm sure it was, but ~April 23 production would likely be less than ~May 23 production for Austin. There is a point where they expect to be fully ramped, but I doubt that is in the first 18 months. Right now, we just don't have any real evidence of growing or shrinking... and even when it shrinks (and it will), how quickly and where it shrinks to is the question. A year is a pretty absurd backlog and I'd argue unhealthy longer term... but what is the right number? 2 months? 6? 8? 12?

Normally you would prefer to order a product and they would either have the one you want in stock for shipment immediately, or if you want a custom order they would be able to build it immediately and then ship it. A months long backlog isn't a healthy state of affairs long term.

 

[hobbes]

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-- INVESTOR ALERT: FSD BETA 10.12.2 is GOOD!!! --
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Elon's answer is quite likely coming to fruition:

After watching Chuck Cook´s latest video I was skeptical as FSD beta bailed out and did right turns every single time, even though the version he had was supposedly optimized for unprotected lefts per the release notes. But he still had 10.12.1, and according to this reddit post unprotected lefts got way better in 10.12.2 (using median for the first time!):

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/v2rwfq

Now really looking forward to Chuck´s next video. Would absolutely be a breakthrough if the could confirm what the reddit user describes.

 

[Nocturnal]

The problem with undercutting other manufacturers and Tesla at a loss is that it cannot be maintained because every EV they sell at a loss is supplanting a gas car sale that would have made them very positive gross margins. It's a death spiral that, to me, seems inevitable.

They just need to sell enough to keep investors reasonably happy long enough to cash out their retirement options.

 

[bkp_duke]

The problem with undercutting other manufacturers and Tesla at a loss is that it cannot be maintained because every EV they sell at a loss is supplanting a gas car sale that would have made them very positive gross margins. It's a death spiral that, to me, seems inevitable.

Have you seen how much debt traditional auto has accumulated? Remember, they are "too big to fail".

 

[Gigapress]

Comparing $10/MWh solar to the equivalent gasoline price is a good way to get a sense of how revolutionary that is for transportation once that price starts to be achievable in less sunny locations than the Middle East and North Africe.

Saudi Arabia utility-scale solar price:

$10.4/MWh (and dropping)​

Approximate panel-to wheels efficiency for local solar grids:

80%​

Assume localized power production and thus relatively cheap transmission costs from solar farm to load (in this case, the charging cable). Normally electricity transmission costs $30/MWh, but since it’s a new design using solar, let’s estimate half the cost off for $15/MWh. Note that even here, the transmission costs are more than the generation costs, which suggests that rooftop or backyard solar would be even cheaper than this model.

Cost per MWh of generation and transmission:

$10.4 + $15 = $25.4/MWh​

Cost per MWh of useful propulsion work done by EV:

$25.4/MWh / 80% = $32/MWh​

A gallon of gasoline is worth 33.7 kWh of energy and it's used at around 30% efficiency in ICEV propulsion. So $32/MWh solar cost is equivalent to gasoline priced at:

$32 = Cost of gas for 1 MWh of work​

​

= Gallons required * Price per gallon​

​

= 1 MWh * 1000 kWh/MWh * 1 gallon/33.7 kWh / 30% efficiency * Price per gallon​

​

$32 = 99 gallons * Price per gallon​

​

$32/99 gallons = Price per gallon​

​

$0.32 = Price per gallon​

​

Wow!​

​

If this math is run again with aspirational 5x solar power cost improvement between now and 2035 to get all-in energy cost of $5/MWh, the equivalent price per gallon of gasoline would be $0.063/gallon!

This is significantly cheaper than gas anywhere in the world, not even Libya at $0.12/gallon, Venezuela $0.11/gallon, nor Iran at $0.19/gallon. (I learned that Saudi Arabia actually in in 20th place for gasoline price.)

To predict this just requires willingness to extrapolate the solar cost curve trends of 10-15% per year saved for just 12 more years or so. The cost curve has been steady for about 68 years since 1954 and there is no clear reason to expect the trend not to continue for the foreseeable future. EVs will be cheaper up front and cheaper to operate literally everywhere on the planet, even countries with more oil & gas than they know what to do with.

There are real solar contracts being signed right now in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, for $10.4-19/MWh. (link link). When materials and logistics shortages calm down, prices will continue dropping.

 

[Hock1]

Have you seen how much debt traditional auto has accumulated? Remember, they are "too big to fail".

Yes. I have. Their collective debt is too much to overcome given their need to invest and compete with Tesla and be able to absorb non-profit sales of their EV offerings. Doesn't seem feasible. This is why, given Elon's commitment to hasten the advent of renewable.....etc., Tesla will have to license their tech to achieve this goal. The "competition" is too ill-equipped and too far behind to contribute to the mission.

 

[AudubonB]

Cheapest gasoline price I ever saw at a US pump was 23.9¢/gallon. Lordy, that was a long time ago, even by Bristlecone Pine standards. I’ll take a look at its adjusted price in 2022 dollars….

On edit: $2.24/gallon appears to be the answer.

 

[Usain]

Same here, I need an EV for my 16 year daughter.

Hmm. This is the second person who has said this, so I'll just offer assistance publicly.

I've had a Bolt since 2017. Right now, my own daughter is driving it. Road trips can be a bit complicated in the Bolt, so I'll be loaning her the Tesla if she needs to do a road trip alone. Other than that, it would be fine car for your daughter.

I'll be glad to answer any questions if you want to PM me.

 

[Off Shore]

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View attachment 811534
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Lovely map! Do you know of one that covers the whole planet?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I agree with the need to work in an office for most jobs. But does he really need to deliver the message this way ?

Seems like a once great leader is letting things go to his head and starting to lose it.

How about like this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532048532181602304

 

[Gigapress]

Elon Musk’s Boring Co. Pitched Texas on Tunnels for Cars, People and Water

Connections between major highways, a walkway and two groundwater projects were under consideration, documents show.

www.bloomberg.com

Elon Musk’s Boring Co. Pitched Texas on Tunnels for Cars, People and Water​

Connections between major highways, a walkway and two groundwater projects were under consideration, documents show.

Boring Co is pitching several tunnel projects in Texas. Groundwater drainage for Houston, an underwater tunnel to an island on the Gulf Coast, car tunnels in Austin, and a pedestrian tunnel in Pflugerville.

150 mph top speed for Loop reiterated and Hyperloop mentioned as still being in plans in Boring Co communications with Texas officials:

“All loop tunnels are designed for the loading and sealing requirements to accommodate Hyperloop, allowing increases in speeds from Loop’s 150 mph to Hyperloop’s 600+ mph.”​

​

 

[Prunesquallor]

Cheapest gasoline price I ever saw at a US pump was 23.9¢/gallon. Lordy, that was a long time ago, even by Bristlecone Pine standards. I’ll take a look at its adjusted price in 2022 dollars….

On edit: $2.24/gallon appears to be the answer.

Yeah, I remember those prices too, and did the inflation comp. Incredibly, it’s stayed constant in inflated dollars for fifty years. Up until the recent nonsense.

 

[jschwefel]

Cheapest gasoline price I ever saw at a US pump was 23.9¢/gallon. Lordy, that was a long time ago, even by Bristlecone Pine standards. I’ll take a look at its adjusted price in 2022 dollars….

On edit: $2.24/gallon appears to be the answer.

Reminds me of this…in 1964 a gallon of gasoline cost about three dimes. How much gasoline would those SAME three dimes buy today?

ANSWER: about a gallon of gasoline, or $4.72 worth to be exact. How? In 1964 US coins were minted with 90% silver, and $1.00 (face value) of those coins contain .715 oz of silver. Today silver is selling for $22/oz, so $0.30 x 0.715 x $22 = $4.72

So inflation isn’t really about prices going up as much as it is the value of the currency going down.

 

[Electroman]

gotta love the headline, confused minds will wonder if this is a good thing or not for the company.

GM is slashing prices for the Chevy Bolt amid high demand for electric vehicles

Most automakers are jacking up EV prices.

www.theverge.com

Had this been Tesla, headlines would ha been blunt and brutal:

“In a desperate attempt to shore up sagging sales Tesla slashes prices”

 

[2daMoon]

Reminds me of this…in 1964 a gallon of gasoline cost about three dimes. How much gasoline would those SAME three dimes buy today?

ANSWER: about a gallon of gasoline, or $4.72 worth to be exact. How? In 1964 US coins were minted with 90% silver, and $1.00 (face value) of those coins contain .715 oz of silver. Today silver is selling for $22/oz, so $0.30 x 0.715 x $22 = $4.72

So inflation isn’t really about prices going up as much as it is the value of the currency going down.

That is a concept that took me about ten years of study to fully grok.

Hours of Labor is the thing I came up with to use as a control to track currency devaluation over time. That is what people trade for the currency, which they then trade for goods and services.

For example, $0.10 paid for a given amount of time performing some line of work in 1964 will likely equal ~$4.72 paid for the same amount of time performing a similar job today.

Coming to grips with how Labor-hours is the constant and currency is the variable can be a paradigm shift for viewing the world.

Understanding how inflating the currency supply beyond the rate of expansion of new goods and services reveals the problems that come with letting the fox guard the hen house. The really nutty part is how inflation of the supply comes mostly from borrowing from banks in a fiat money system, rather than saving and paying cash.

 

[SunCatcher]

Reminds me of this…in 1964 a gallon of gasoline cost about three dimes. How much gasoline would those SAME three dimes buy today?

ANSWER: about a gallon of gasoline, or $4.72 worth to be exact. How? In 1964 US coins were minted with 90% silver, and $1.00 (face value) of those coins contain .715 oz of silver. Today silver is selling for $22/oz, so $0.30 x 0.715 x $22 = $4.72

So inflation isn’t really about prices going up as much as it is the value of the currency going down.

LBJ, in his infinite wisdom, said it best; "Silver is too valuable to be used in the making of money (currency/coinage)". And with all the $ printing that's been happening this past while, I'd say the US dollar is now worth a lot less than it used to be.

Special Message to the Congress Proposing Changes in the Coinage System | The American Presidency Project

www.presidency.ucsb.edu

 

[thesmokingman]

The problem with undercutting other manufacturers and Tesla at a loss is that it cannot be maintained because every EV they sell at a loss is supplanting a gas car sale that would have made them very positive gross margins. It's a death spiral that, to me, seems inevitable.

I'm pretty sure they don't actually make money on vehicles when broken down and the profits are in after sales and financing. Didn't we break down the last earnings and unpack this point already?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Reminds me of this…in 1964 a gallon of gasoline cost about three dimes. How much gasoline would those SAME three dimes buy today?

ANSWER: about a gallon of gasoline, or $4.72 worth to be exact. How? In 1964 US coins were minted with 90% silver, and $1.00 (face value) of those coins contain .715 oz of silver. Today silver is selling for $22/oz, so $0.30 x 0.715 x $22 = $4.72

So inflation isn’t really about prices going up as much as it is the value of the currency going down.

Just wait to see what those old nickels will be worth in a few years.