Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Is this email authentic? How do you ramp Berlin, Austin, and Shanghai while also decreasing staff by 10%? Seems odd.

You could as well ask the more relevant question: Is Reuters authentic? Short answer is no. Reuters has become a click-bait newz org that works hard to find the sizzle, not the story. They always hide the intent, and focus on the controversy (even when they have to make one up).

Then of course, there's the knee-jerk-newbie reactionaries, who love to swallow whatever the MSM feeds them, then jump to the premature (false) conclusion that 'everything is E's phault'.

Best not to be that guy. Of course shortzes jumped on this (that's how they make money). Color and context will come out, it'll just take some time.

 

[Mike Smith]

We've seen this before. In January 2019 Elon announced that Tesla was going to lay off 7% of its workforce. Tesla proceeded to increase vehicle production by 50% in 2019.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Comparing $10/MWh solar to the equivalent gasoline price is a good way to get a sense of how revolutionary that is for transportation once that price starts to be achievable in less sunny locations than the Middle East and North Africe.

Saudi Arabia utility-scale solar price:

$10.4/MWh (and dropping)​

Approximate panel-to wheels efficiency for local solar grids:

80%​

Assume localized power production and thus relatively cheap transmission costs from solar farm to load (in this case, the charging cable). Normally electricity transmission costs $30/MWh, but since it’s a new design using solar, let’s estimate half the cost off for $15/MWh. Note that even here, the transmission costs are more than the generation costs, which suggests that rooftop or backyard solar would be even cheaper than this model.

Cost per MWh of generation and transmission:

$10.4 + $15 = $25.4/MWh​

Cost per MWh of useful propulsion work done by EV:

$25.4/MWh / 80% = $32/MWh​

A gallon of gasoline is worth 33.7 kWh of energy and it's used at around 30% efficiency in ICEV propulsion. So $32/MWh solar cost is equivalent to gasoline priced at:

$32 = Cost of gas for 1 MWh of work​

​

= Gallons required * Price per gallon​

​

= 1 MWh * 1000 kWh/MWh * 1 gallon/33.7 kWh / 30% efficiency * Price per gallon​

​

$32 = 99 gallons * Price per gallon​

​

$32/99 gallons = Price per gallon​

​

$0.32 = Price per gallon​

​

Wow!​

​

If this math is run again with aspirational 5x solar power cost improvement between now and 2035 to get all-in energy cost of $5/MWh, the equivalent price per gallon of gasoline would be $0.063/gallon!

This is significantly cheaper than gas anywhere in the world, not even Libya at $0.12/gallon, Venezuela $0.11/gallon, nor Iran at $0.19/gallon. (I learned that Saudi Arabia actually in in 20th place for gasoline price.)

To predict this just requires willingness to extrapolate the solar cost curve trends of 10-15% per year saved for just 12 more years or so. The cost curve has been steady for about 68 years since 1954 and there is no clear reason to expect the trend not to continue for the foreseeable future. EVs will be cheaper up front and cheaper to operate literally everywhere on the planet, even countries with more oil & gas than they know what to do with.

There are real solar contracts being signed right now in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, for $10.4-19/MWh. (link link). When materials and logistics shortages calm down, prices will continue dropping.

I'm a simple man: whenever I see a @Gigapress or @The Accountant post, I push the bookmark button.

 

[Atomsla]

I'm a simple man: whenever I see a @Gigapress or @The Accountant post, I push the bookmark button.

Same here with my own posts!

 

[mars_or_bust]

Tesla has hired people at an extremely fast pace in the last few years, and it's impossible to do that without accumulating quite a few bad / redundant employees. An economic slowdown is a perfect excuse to go through the company in one fell swoop and cut all the fat. They'll be back to hiring again soon after.

Regular laying off the worst 10%, followed by new hiring is excellent management policy pursued by Tesla in the past. Happened at SpaceX in 2019 SpaceX laying off 10 percent of its workforce - SpaceNews.

People got lazy during covid. They need to be jump started. Companies that do that will prosper. Others, like Apple, that pander to the lazy ones, will slowly wither.

This is very bullish.

 

[Mike Smith]

Regular laying off the worst 10%, followed by new hiring is excellent management policy pursued by Tesla in the past.

And there's going to be plenty of great new employees to choose from as the labor market loosens up.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Of course it’s legit. Pretty weird to question it, honestly.

Musk is practically a QANON conspiracy-addled right wing fascist at this point. Sad to watch someone so powerful radicalized in real time over the last 2 years or so. Very sad.

He’s doing real damage to the brand, recruitment, morale, and its operational capabilities, and embroiling it in countless dumb distractions, some of which are in direct contradiction to Tesla’s mission (Bitcoin, no remote work). The sooner he resigns from Tesla the better.

Tesla’s owner going batshit off the deep end is a Tesla crisis.

Elon still seems pretty reasonable to me and certainly not "radicalised". His tweets clearly state that he has voted for and donated to both parties in the past, and the current one in power has snubbed all of Tesla's accomplishments - so it is clearly a reasonable position for him to vote for the other team in this instance. He's clearly not (Practically - whatever that means) QANON or anything of the sort - perhaps you should reflect on how militant your own ideology is before jumping to these conclusions.

Demanding people return to the office again is not the result of some iron fisted tyrant. Any sort of job that benefits from in person collaboration can be improved by being in the office. I work in finance which should lend itself to remote work - but when it comes to training the new recruits and solving problems quickly, there is no better method than getting together in the same room and sorting out the problem - Just the learnings that are imbued by working next to more experienced people are noticeable. I can see how this would be doubly so for physical engineering.

I want Elon exactly where he is for as long as possible. It would be pretty strange to invest your dollarydoos with someone you have such little confidence in.

 

[saniflash]

My opinion is that we don't know the full story until we've seen the full email, unabridged. Since the media tend to spin Tesla-related stories, this layoff may well be focused on some departments (e.g., "administration" and other functions) where Tesla might have built up unnecessary overhead with the last hiring sprees.

 

[elasalle]

Watch out for a slough of lawsuits after the layoffs. The usual lawyers will be canvassing the laid off employees asking if they experienced any harassment or discrimination. Zero risk / high reward legal action is very appealing to people who just became unemployed. This happened last time.

No harassment while working from home

Looks like preemptive measures for a weak quarter

 

[Todd Burch]

If this news is true, periodically trimming the fat/barnacles is a good thing, especially when you have so many people that want to work for your company.

Every company inevitably accumulates slugs that lower productivity and add little value. Shaving those off keeps a company lean, nimble, and efficient.

But it does seem odd that this would come out now, on an options expiration Friday, when IMO things look better now in the economy than they did a month ago.

Hopefully Elon denies it or confirms with reasoning quickly.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Elon still seems pretty reasonable to me and certainly not "radicalised". His tweets clearly state that he has voted for and donated to both parties in the past, and the current one in power has snubbed all of Tesla's accomplishments - so it is clearly a reasonable position for him to vote for the other team in this instance. He's clearly not (Practically - whatever that means) QANON or anything of the sort - perhaps you should reflect on how militant your own ideology is before jumping to these conclusions.

Demanding people return to the office again is not the result of some iron fisted tyrant. Any sort of job that benefits from in person collaboration can be improved by being in the office. I work in finance which should lend itself to remote work - but when it comes to training the new recruits and solving problems quickly, there is no better method than getting together in the same room and sorting out the problem - Just the learnings that are imbued by working next to more experienced people are noticeable. I can see how this would be doubly so for physical engineering.

I want Elon exactly where he is for as long as possible. It would be pretty strange to invest your dollarydoos with someone you have such little confidence in.

I agree with your general sentiment here, but I don't think Elon has voted for both parties in the past. I think he alluded to that in his "All In" interview. The donations- yes.

 

[Stretch2727]

If this news is true, periodically trimming the fat/barnacles is a good thing, especially when you have so many people that want to work for your company.

Every company inevitably accumulates slugs that lower productivity and add little value. Shaving those off keeps a company lean, nimble, and efficient.

But it does seem odd that this would come out now, on an options expiration Friday, when IMO things look better now in the economy than they did a month ago.

Hopefully Elon denies it or confirms with reasoning quickly.

Yep, for those of us who have been around for a while this is nothing new for Tesla/Elon. He has done this in the past during some critical times.

My bet is they still will have more employees at the end of the year than the start of the year.

 

[JustMe]

Looks like he should start by firing the person who keeps leaking internal mails...

Leaky McLeakface - you’re fired!

 

[SmokyPeat]

Yep, for those of us who have been around for a while this is nothing new for Tesla/Elon. He has done this in the past during some critical times.

My bet is they still will have more employees at the end of the year than the start of the year.

I hope (and expect) that Tesla employs more people at the end of the year than they do today. I think this message was primarily intended to light a fire underneath any employees unhappy about returning to the office.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I agree with your general sentiment here, but I don't think Elon has voted for both parties in the past. I think he alluded to that in his "All In" interview. The donations- yes.

Thanks - updated the original.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope (and expect) that Tesla employs more people at the end of the year than they do today. I think this message was primarily intended to light a fire underneath any employees unhappy about returning to the office.

Well, any so-called "hiring freeze" is unlikely to extend beyond Sep 30, since the purpose of AI Day 2 is recruiting new employees.

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@intelligent_eat Yes, the purpose of AI Day is to convince great AI/software/chip talent to join Tesla" / Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Tesla AI Day pushed to Sept 30, as we may have an Optimus prototype working by then" / Twitter

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Hopefully Elon denies it or confirms with reasoning quickly.

Has there ever been a leaked email from Elon that wasn't true?

 

[re04586]

Has there ever been a leaked email from Elon that wasn't true?

This is still a "report" of the leaked email.

There have been plenty of fake reports, but to your point, if the leaked email is revealed, then I don't recall any being fabricated.

 

[OrthoSurg]

We've seen this before. In January 2019 Elon announced that Tesla was going to lay off 7% of its workforce. Tesla proceeded to increase vehicle production by 50% in 2019.

The last time I had stocks in a plane engineering company and they announced they were cutting 10% of employees to save costs, the stock price jumped 8% because investors liked the idea of cost saving. I am surprise the opposite is happening with TSLA even if the story was true.

 

[Todd Burch]

Has there ever been a leaked email from Elon that wasn't true?

Most turn out to be true. If true it’s not that concerning really…just want him to get ahead of any negative “the sky is falling” spin that TSLAQ will obviously run with.