Well if you're using the "low" of each year, then you have to include the "high" as well
So 2022 high will be $1,514 and then $265/year after that.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So 2022 high will be $1,514 and then $265/year after that.
Gary seems to be basing this conclusion on conversations with a number of Tesla employees today. There's some additional tweets adding more context - worth a read.
Watch out Tesla fan-bois, Joe Biden's Ford is coming. Lagacy auto's engineering is first class, they said.
www.autoblog.com
NHTSA investigates Ford Bronco 'catastrophic engine failure' reports - Autoblog
The NHTSA opened an investigation into allegations that some V6-powered Ford Bronco SUVs suffer from a valvetrain problem that causes engine failure.
www.autoblog.com
Just to be clear, if you are referring to the SpaceX stewardess thing. Elon was not accused by anyone claiming he did anything to them. It was an article based on the hearsay of a 3rd party regarding something that occurred 6 years ago (declaration was from 2 years after event).
Elon and the person apparently already settled whatever it was in 2018. There will not be any lawsuit.
To summarize that thread : Tesla hired a ton of people when people were mainly working remotely. Now Elon wants them back to work and it turns out the facilities aren't big enough for the number of people they hired. Elon *may* have interpreted that as things are too bloated.
Sounds like Tesla will be needing more office space regardless.
This is exactly what I said here:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
May 2022 - US Auto Sales - Ugly Link to Source: Automotive News Oh man those are crushing numbers, just utterly crushing. I'm already feeling a lot better now, thanks!
teslamotorsclub.com
Part 1 of the 5 part Trilogy! Buckle up and get your popcorn! And buy calls at least a few months out - not an advice!
Don't forget Tesla Insurance spin up as an additional profit center for a large number of cars sold and customer cost of ownership savings driving even more car sales.
Last edited:
If this is true makes Elon look like an idiot.
Ok, now do the same but use percentages.
My numbers aren't as high, but I'm assuming that we need to hit macro bumps for the next few years and will slow growth a bit, so I'm just taking the average increase in $/car and low and behold I get an even bigger number!
I do feel that we really need to see 4680s in customer hands before the $/car figure really starts going parabolic (2nd shift at Berlin is sweet though) as well as FSD being able to make left turns with ease (c'mon unified vector space!)
| Gross Profit per Vehicle | Gross Margin |
| Q1 2021 (actual) | $10.10 |
| Q2 2021 (actual) | $12.60 |
| Q3 2021 (actual) | $14.10 |
| Q4 2021 (actual) | $14.80 |
| Q1 2022 (actual) | $15.70 |
| Q2 2022 | $17.10 |
| Q3 2022 | $18.50 |
| Q4 2022 | $19.90 |
| Q1 2023 | $21.30 |
| Q2 2023 | $22.70 |
| Q3 2023 | $24.10 |
| Q4 2023 | $25.50 |
| Q1 2024 | $26.90 |
| Q2 2024 | $28.30 |
| Q3 2024 | $29.70 |
| Q4 2024 | $31.10 |
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Oil & Natural Gas Not Needed for Chemicals; Solar will Dominate
In my essay on why energy consumption is about to explode in the coming decades, primary chemical production was listed as one of the main drivers of the growth. We can make methane, hydrogen, gasoline, diesel, naphtha, paraffin, methanol, and much more from atmospheric CO2, water and sunshine.
This is not some future research project that is optimistic speculation on a brand new technology. In World War II, when the Nazis were running low on oil supplies due to Germany's unfortunate poverty of domestic reserves, they resorted to substituting oil with domestically-abundant coal. How? By gasifying coal into syngas and then converting the syngas to liquid hydrocarbons with the Fischer-Tropsch process. The process had been invented two decades earlier in 1926 by Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch in their research as chemistry professors at a university in Germany. Decades later, South Africa resorted to using this process because of harsh trade embargoes from countries that disapproved of Apartheid which restricted their oil supply. Many gas-to-liquids (GtL) plants exist today for converting methane from natural gas into liquids. Even Shell and Chevron have some of these plants.
The science and basic technology is understood. The problem has always been economic competitiveness with oil and with alternative uses for natural gas. A 2017 study published in the academic journal Energy Economics by a team of MIT researchers calculated that GtL economics could work out if the gas-to-oil price ratio fell below a certain threshold. The authors were pessimistic about the future of the technology if using natural gas, but I think they weren't accounting for the advent of cheap sustainable methane gas that could one day pass that price threshold and which may receive carbon sequestration subsidies.
So, if we accept the premise that ultra-cheap solar around 2030 will make synthetic, sustainable methane sourced from atomspheric CO2 cheaper than methane sourced from natural gas, we should expect increased usage of synthetic methane for production of liquid hydrocarbons. If the price falls far enough, it would eventually be cheaper than sourcing from oil. In a commodity market such as the chemicals industry, the lowest-cost production method always wins in the long run because customers just buy from the lowest bidder.
The implications for Tesla Energy total addressable market are staggering if you do the math on how much solar energy would be required for H2 and CH4 production as the feedstocks for this process, even under thermodynamically ideal reaction efficiency. And then the plot thickens with SpaceX clearly signaling that they will go all out on minimizing the cost of making sustainable rocket propellant from atmospheric CO2 as soon as they achieve full and rapid reusability for Starship/Superheavy, which translates to SpaceX making huge amounts of H2 and CH4 in the sunshine in southern Texas. Their goal is to make life multiplanetary and increase the probability that the light of consciousness is not extinguished, which means in part helping civilization on Earth survive, which means solving environmental sustainability. To this end, Elon Musk has offered a $100M prize for carbon sequestration. Hmm...
(From Wikipedia)
netl.doe.gov
netl.doe.gov
In my essay on why energy consumption is about to explode in the coming decades, primary chemical production was listed as one of the main drivers of the growth. We can make methane, hydrogen, gasoline, diesel, naphtha, paraffin, methanol, and much more from atmospheric CO2, water and sunshine.
This is not some future research project that is optimistic speculation on a brand new technology. In World War II, when the Nazis were running low on oil supplies due to Germany's unfortunate poverty of domestic reserves, they resorted to substituting oil with domestically-abundant coal. How? By gasifying coal into syngas and then converting the syngas to liquid hydrocarbons with the Fischer-Tropsch process. The process had been invented two decades earlier in 1926 by Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch in their research as chemistry professors at a university in Germany. Decades later, South Africa resorted to using this process because of harsh trade embargoes from countries that disapproved of Apartheid which restricted their oil supply. Many gas-to-liquids (GtL) plants exist today for converting methane from natural gas into liquids. Even Shell and Chevron have some of these plants.
The science and basic technology is understood. The problem has always been economic competitiveness with oil and with alternative uses for natural gas. A 2017 study published in the academic journal Energy Economics by a team of MIT researchers calculated that GtL economics could work out if the gas-to-oil price ratio fell below a certain threshold. The authors were pessimistic about the future of the technology if using natural gas, but I think they weren't accounting for the advent of cheap sustainable methane gas that could one day pass that price threshold and which may receive carbon sequestration subsidies.
So, if we accept the premise that ultra-cheap solar around 2030 will make synthetic, sustainable methane sourced from atomspheric CO2 cheaper than methane sourced from natural gas, we should expect increased usage of synthetic methane for production of liquid hydrocarbons. If the price falls far enough, it would eventually be cheaper than sourcing from oil. In a commodity market such as the chemicals industry, the lowest-cost production method always wins in the long run because customers just buy from the lowest bidder.
The implications for Tesla Energy total addressable market are staggering if you do the math on how much solar energy would be required for H2 and CH4 production as the feedstocks for this process, even under thermodynamically ideal reaction efficiency. And then the plot thickens with SpaceX clearly signaling that they will go all out on minimizing the cost of making sustainable rocket propellant from atmospheric CO2 as soon as they achieve full and rapid reusability for Starship/Superheavy, which translates to SpaceX making huge amounts of H2 and CH4 in the sunshine in southern Texas. Their goal is to make life multiplanetary and increase the probability that the light of consciousness is not extinguished, which means in part helping civilization on Earth survive, which means solving environmental sustainability. To this end, Elon Musk has offered a $100M prize for carbon sequestration. Hmm...
(From Wikipedia)
10.2. Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis
Liquid transportation hydrocarbon fuels and various other chemical products can be produced from syngas via the well-known and established catalytic chemical process called Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis, named after the original German inventors, Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch in the 1920s...
10.2.2. Fischer-Tropsch Efficiency & Performance
Comparing liquid transportation fuels production from gasification to fuels from traditional production methods is a difficult undertaking because of the vastly diverse configuration options available for gasification processing.
Last edited:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This looks like one more "we are closing all the sales locations" from 2019. Next day (?) they took it back.
BTW, Elon does think the Opex is bloated.
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but it appears that Chevy is advertising the next Bolt EV and EUV for under 30K:
insideevs.com
2023 Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV Prices Confirmed: Much Lower Than 2022
Chevrolet announced today pricing of the new 2023 model year Bolt EV and Bolt EUV duo, which happens to be significantly lower than before.
insideevs.com
OMG finally I will have a f’in break. 55 new consults today. Worked at the office from 8AM to 7PM. May FSD save all the frigging patients from whatever they are doing on the road. I finish work, enter my car and what do I see? The green graph of yesterday with a big -9% on the top of it. I thought WW3 had just started while Inwas busy at work treating Non-FSD Non-Tesla drivers
Attachments
Arguably bigger. Elon has 96M followers on Twitter, Biden 34M. And no one thinks Elon's brain turned to oatmeal a decade ago; he has a whole lot more credibility.
LOL! How's he done on these, for example?
Working from home has allowed me to lose money trading Tesla. But gosh I love working from home.
Well Elon screwed me over again. We just got an email saying that they are expecting us to go back into the office
I bet on Monday I am going to get an email stating that I am getting laid off..... at least I will not have to go back to the office. Elon works on mysterious ways
.But America faces difficult challenges, and these reasons you cite are so insignificant and inconsequential.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Yeah linear extrapolation of the gross profit trend gets crazy with the rate it’s been going at. $1.4k improvement per quarter is amazing.
I agree 4680s are crucial to the unit economics as well as delivery volume, and by extension crucial for the timeline for getting to the $100B auto gross profit milestone.
FSD will be a huge boost if it at least can handle suburban and rural driving generally without intervention or stress. So much margin potential. FSD Beta looks pretty good on well-marked suburban and rural roads, and it should get especially good when unified vector space improves path planning.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I honestly have trouble imagining what a sad life the person who made that website must live.
Furiously scribbling down every idea Elon ever had that he didn't follow through with, or every over-optimistic estimate he ever made, in a desperate attempt to make one of the most successful businessmen in a generation out to be a failure.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
