Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Think you could dream up that gamma squeeze happening in September rather than October? I've got some Leaps expiring in Sep.

So glad we've circled back to valuation brainstorming! My current thesis is so wonderfully simple, it's impervious to critique. Fully irrefutable first principles.

TSLA must be able to drop by at least 35% within a 1-3 month window in order for it's massive options market to be minimally effective. Closer to 50% is even more ideal and typical of preferred volitility.

Therefore TSLA must reach a SP where it's 35% drop bottoms it out at it's "absolute floor". After reporting $14-18 EPS in 2022, an absolute floor with a 65 PE is $910-$1170.

Therefore share price must hit at least $1400-$1800 in order to be able to drop 35% and hit the absurd SP floor equating to a 65 PE. (today we're at 95)

With any luck the market begins conjuring this SP range starting after 2Q earnings and completes after 3Q earnings in order to be just one quarter ahead of these numbers becoming historical reality on January 18th, 2023 (228 days from now)

Natural PE compression isn't about earnings appearing, it's about growth slowing. Tesla's growth should begin to slow until the current Gigafactories scale completely. Beyond that it'll still be around 50% based on additional Gigafactories coming online.

So we should at least double from here within a year at an absolute minimum in nearly the worst macro situation imaginable.

 

[WADan]

Kia EV6 plus ChargePoint and some random Kia dealership in Mississippi that had a weak charger.

Dumb article… they should have contrasted with Tesla experience but that would have highlighted how good Tesla is!

I don’t think you need to worry. When someone reads that article, the only natural question will be how the same situation would be with a Tesla, and they will find abundant of articles!

 

[Gigapress]

I wonder if solar has reached minimum price for the BoM costs, not necessarily for the install & permitting costs. My concern is that energy costs in mfg of solar are now driving cost increases. As such this may be near bottom. For wind there are further scale benefits working their way through the system. The point being that each technology need not necessarily reach bottom at the same time. Batteries of course are much further back up the tech decline curve.

For many years, soft costs have been about half the cost structure, with hardware being the other half. Also, this ratio has held more or less constant over time, meaning that costs have been improving across the whole business model for solar.

The actual solar panel module costs only about 30-40% of the project cost for utility-scale solar. The other hardware is for structural and electrical components.

Indirectly, for the overall cost structure, transmission and grid administration costs now are larger than the levelized cost of the solar PV farms. Grid costs are usually around $30/MWh on average compared to many solar contracts in the USA now bidding as low as $20-25/MWh for wholesale power supply. Who knows how long the grid architecture as we know it can remain economically competitive against local microgrids.

As PV modules improve in efficiency and longevity, the solar hardware cost per MWh obviously falls, but costs also fall for the other accessory hardware, for the land and for labor because fewer panels need to be installed per MWh of supply over the lifetime of the project.

Here's cost breakdown data from a US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) research report from 2020:

 

[Electroman]

It is common corporate policy not to comment on rumors. If you comment on one rumor then you must comment on all rumors because silence would insinuate the rumor is true.

I know that Musk has often tweeted to correct things but I believe this has usually been done to correct a misinterpretation of an earlier tweet.
In this case: the "super bad feeling" did not come from a Musk tweet. At this point, it's only a rumor.

Except that in this case this “rumor“ has reached Biden, and Biden responded to it ….and Musk has responded to that too, effectively acknowledging this rumor

 

[The Accountant]

Except that in this case this “rumor“ has reached Biden, and Biden responded to it ….and Musk has responded to that too, effectively acknowledging this rumor

Ok - don't want to drag this on too long but Musk only responded to the moon comment:

Biden: Lots of luck on his trip to the moon.
Elon: Thanks Mr President!

I believe that was it. But I guess what he was responding to is open to interpretation.

 

[WADan]

I don’t think you need to worry. When someone reads that article, the only natural question will be how the same situation would be with a Tesla, and they will find abundant of articles!

For example, this one:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/ev-rent-tesla-hertz/

 

[Ohmster]

Although the screen choices are set to “Lock on walkaway”, the car only locks by holding the keycard next to the B pillar. This helps first time renters from leaving the key in the car.

That’s the way it is designed. “Lock on walkway” only works with phone as key or with a FOB. With card key, you have to lock and unlock by placement on B pillar. I leave our valet key in the car at all times for this very reason.

If you have a Tesla account, the app, and a working card key for the vehicle, you should be able to add your phone as a key and then ‘walk away’ will work as usual. I did this with my father’s 3.

 

[Singuy]

For example, this one:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/ev-rent-tesla-hertz/

I am visiting LA and tried to get a Model 3 from Hertz. Impossible when gas prices are 8 dollars a gallon and most airbnbs have free charging points. Hertz needs to order another 100k.

 

[AudubonB]

Truth playing catchup

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533048309144858625

Interesting. There is a way to test its validity: compare in/outflows of the competing MSCI-benchmarked funds, which DO contain TSLA, to learn if this, or perhaps other factors, like an industry-wide outflow from all funds (I don’t know the answer), is the cause. (On edit: I now see one of our 2 “Electroman” also had mused about some of this).

 

[Gigapress]

One last comment. If this solar power + water + air —> Fischer-Tropsch synthesis industry takes off as I’m projecting, a new username may be needed for @Oil4AsphaultOnly.

 

[FireMedic]

Hope this little detail that was overlooked (by WS not TMC) will be properly appreciated on Monday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533176789022957568

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533179948743151616

Important milestone

 

[UncaNed]

FUD from NPR written by David Gura on June 4. 2022-

Can the SEC stand up to the richest man on the planet?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

One last comment. If this solar power + water + air —> Fischer-Tropsch synthesis industry takes off as I’m projecting, a new username may be needed for @Oil4AsphaultOnly.

Doh! Any suggestions?

 

[Gigapress]

Doh! Any suggestions?

Oil4NostalgiaOnly

 

[Captkerosene]

Four months.

What a _ick

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533129558056116224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533136300055724032

Gates is getting a raw deal. What he says is true: Shorting TSLA doesn't hurt the company. It's a bet that the share price is too high - it isn't an attempt to lower the share price. He hasn't been out badmouthing Tesla or Musk and contributions to liberal media weren't targeted at Elon. If he hates Musk it's because Elon started a fight with Buffett, Munger and himself. Elon has done a lot of reputational damage to the three of them and they didn't deserve it. (I was a BRK investor for decades and still have a very high regard for Buffett and Munger ... Gates a little less so.)

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Hope this little detail that was overlooked (by WS not TMC) will be properly appreciated on Monday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533176789022957568

 

[Captkerosene]

One last comment. If this solar power + water + air —> Fischer-Tropsch synthesis industry takes off as I’m projecting, a new username may be needed for @Oil4AsphaultOnly.

I lost millions (as an investor) trying to turn methane (nat gas) into isobutanol (fuel) with methanotrophs (bacteria) through gene editing. My advice would be don't bet on these kinds of projects until there are large scale working demonstration plants.

 

[kbM3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533179948743151616

Important milestone

This is great news.

I just got invited to FSD Beta and it has been closed for months.

I was in the program on my model three, but lost out when I bought when I traded in for the model S.

FYI I have a 100 Safety Score.

 

[OrthoSurg]

So a 10% cut in headcount to save in salaries to improve margin in the future causes the stock to collapse 9%?

The last time I saw such an announcement for a company I held made the stock increase 10%.

Why everything is always the opposite for traders. They get scared and drop the stock for the week end to make sure they sleep well then they going to FOMO back in Monday morning when they realize it is a good thing not to get complacent.