Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

True currently when all available tesla models are sedans but dominating the truck market starting next year will require expanded supercharger options in large parts of most non-coastal states. I've had a cybertruck on order since day 1 but if it were available today I wouldn't get one because it wouldn't be usable in the remote areas I hunt and do field research & it wouldn't be convenient for farmers and ranchers in most of the Rocky Mountain & Great Plains states. It will undoubtedly change eventually but right now the supercharger map doesn't even show plans for many future Superchargers in these areas as is common elsewhere.

Tesla will not be dominating the truck market until they are making millions of trucks every year. So they have a few years to get the Supercharger network ready for total truck domination. Most gasoline trucks are currently sold to urban and suburban areas that are already served by Superchargers. Those same areas will be where most Cybertrucks are sold initially, and for years to come.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla will not be dominating the truck market until they are making millions of trucks every year. So they have a few years to get the Supercharger network ready for total truck domination. Most gasoline trucks are currently sold to urban and suburban areas that are already served by Superchargers. Those same areas will be where most Cybertrucks are sold initially, and for years to come.

There is one other consideration - Megacharger stations.

If these are built along truck routes, it depends on how much land they need, and how many miles they need to be spaced apart.

My guess is a fair amount of land, which suggests remote locations, but close to major highways.

My additional guess is that we may find Megacharger stations also include some Supercharging.

We need to see how Megacharging pans out. I know the geography and the main trucking routes in my country, I don't know much about the US.

But I will be surprised if all Megacharging is done in facilities owned by the trucking companies. I think it is likely Tesla will need to build and operate some Megacharging.

 

[Xepa777]

There is one other consideration - Megacharger stations.

If these are built along truck routes, it depends on how much land they need, and how many miles they need to be spaced apart.

My guess is a fair amount of land, which suggests remote locations, but close to major highways.

My additional guess is that we may find Megacharger stations also include some Supercharging.

We need to see how Megacharging pans out. I know the geography and the main trucking routes in my country, I don't know much about the US.

But I will be surprised if all Megacharging is done in facilities owned by the trucking companies. I think it is likely Tesla will need to build and operate some Megacharging.

I hear this “mega charger in highway routes” argument a lot but I’d like to bring up a more interesting perspective, considering that teslas semi team recently presented at Whartons annual innovation conference.

It looks like tesla will start by selling a lot of short range trucks. In that scenario, they would get recharged not on the way from point A to point B, but rather at the different unloading/loading locations themselves. Time is money and the trucking world is dominated by economics, so the best way to save time is to never have to allocate time to “refueling” at all.

This is what I think will happen and presents a very strong economic case for the semi over traditional trucks. We also know Pepsi has charging stations being built at their locations.

 

[hobbes]

It's my birthday today, so tomorrow better see a 10%+ rise in TSLA.

Happy Birthday! Off to a good start at least on tradegate.de:

Tradegate Exchange

Tradegate Exchange, US88160R1014, Tesla Inc.

www.tradegate.de

 

[UkNorthampton]

That Tesla has been engaged in Enron/Madoff-level accounting fraud has been an ongoing TSLAQ narrative for years now.... for a good while one of the common arguments was around warranty $ being shifted around.... a more recent one is about accounts payable, where Tesla is showing these big earnings because they keep pushing off paying for anything...plus the usual fraud arguments around things sold or pre-sold and "will never" be delivered like L5 and flying roadsters....(and I'm sure the old timers have lots more examples they could cite)


None of them hold up to anyone with a halfway decent understanding of accounting--(well, the accounting specific ones anyway- L5 is a whole other can of worms!) but to the lay public it's sufficient razzle dazzle that many buy the arguments.

We'll probably never know how much Gordon is motivated by conspiracy theories, obstinacy or benefactors.

Interesting that he HAD a good record up to/excluding Tesla. His previous analysis was largely (from memory) bearish on multiple stocks, ie candidates for shorting. He didn't seem to list many worthwhile companies to invest in. There's a possibility that he's just really cynical and hidebound in how he analyses companies, failing to understand innovation. Aversion to Monty Python? Always look on the dark side of life?

Does he influence anyone anymore? I'd say not significant, more a meme than a threat. He may still hold sway with some TSLAQ/cynical people who judge Tesla/Elon Musk by their own standards.

 

[hobbes]

TSLA China still hiring, per this source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533649433371365376

Tesla is listing 770 job openings in Germany alone

Tesla-Karrieren

Careers Search

www.tesla.com

 

[UkNorthampton]

In short, the shortage continues thru 2023...

autoevolution: The End of the Chip Shortage: The Good News and the Prediction Nobody Wants to Accept.

The End of the Chip Shortage: The Good News and the Prediction Nobody Wants to Accept

The chip crisis that emerged in 2020 wreaked havoc in pretty much every industry sector out there, with some companies having no other option than to temporarily stop their production lines.

www.autoevolution.com

This is incredibly bullish for Tesla as they are uniquely positioned to be least hurt by this due to best in class full stack agility.

Any kind of chip, old chip designs out of production, old-style wiring looms supplied from Ukraine, lack of cells, procurement culture, dealer network hostility, lack of replacement parts/maintenance requirements, debt, bureaucracy, wilful doubt about EVs, entrenched empires, city restrictions on ICE use, unappealing for high-skill EV/IT recruits. It will be brutal on legacy & their investors, staff & suppliers.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I hear this “mega charger in highway routes” argument a lot but I’d like to bring up a more interesting perspective, considering that teslas semi team recently presented at Whartons annual innovation conference.

It looks like tesla will start by selling a lot of short range trucks. In that scenario, they would get recharged not on the way from point A to point B, but rather at the different unloading/loading locations themselves. Time is money and the trucking world is dominated by economics, so the best way to save time is to never have to allocate time to “refueling” at all.

This is what I think will happen and presents a very strong economic case for the semi over traditional trucks. We also know Pepsi has charging stations being built at their locations.

Ideally some charging while stuck in traffic, either overhead like trams or inductive on short sections of congested/slow approach roads. A lot of trucks are used for short runs around, to and from ports. The pollution in these areas is awful and affects many people's health. Once EVs are an option, I could imagine rapid switching encouraged by local governments.

It might be enough to charge just at mandatory break times or slightly over-supply trucks and swap drivers between them. Generally speeds are lower due to congestion - so charging requirements might be ok compared to long-distance faster travel.

Real-time pollution might be interesting for some (change city to your local area to compare) - Rotterdam ok at moment - but I'd imagine certain port approach roads are awful at times

Rotterdam Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index

How polluted is the air today? Check out the real-time air pollution map, for more than 100 countries.

aqicn.org

 

[OrthoSurg]

Happy Birthday! Off to a good start at least on tradegate.de:

View attachment 813219

Tradegate Exchange

Tradegate Exchange, US88160R1014, Tesla Inc.

www.tradegate.de

Now let’s find someone’s here who’s birthday is tomorrow so we get a +4% premarket everyday of this week

 

[15Peter20]

We'll probably never know how much Gordon is motivated by conspiracy theories, obstinacy or benefactors.

Interesting that he HAD a good record up to/excluding Tesla. His previous analysis was largely (from memory) bearish on multiple stocks, ie candidates for shorting. He didn't seem to list many worthwhile companies to invest in. There's a possibility that he's just really cynical and hidebound in how he analyses companies, failing to understand innovation. Aversion to Monty Python? Always look on the dark side of life?

Does he influence anyone anymore? I'd say not significant, more a meme than a threat. He may still hold sway with some TSLAQ/cynical people who judge Tesla/Elon Musk by their own standards.

I think he describes himself as a "sell-side analyst", so yeah, professional glass 3/4 empty kind of person with (in TSLA's case) paranoid delusions.

 

[15Peter20]

Now let’s find someone’s here who’s birthday is tomorrow so we get a +4% premarket everyday of this week

The Queen has 2 birthdays per year. UKNorthampton could recommend TMC to her next time he bumps into her in Aldi.

 

[Krugerrand]

Now let’s find someone’s here who’s birthday is tomorrow so we get a +4% premarket everyday of this week

Imagine if said birthday person treated themselves to a doctor’s visit on their jubilant day!?

 

[hobbes]

Tesla lithium deal in Australia:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533758863974998017

 

[brantse]

Tesla lithium deal in Australia:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533758863974998017

Without having any reference for how much lithium is currently used in cells or whether this "concentrate" is much different than battery grade lithium, I did a quick search and came up with an approximation that this could be used for almost 6 million 75 kwh packs a year. I'm sure that that estimate is high, but it looks like we're talking about a large amount of lithium here.

Edit - my math is off, as is further clarified by @mongo below.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Where the hell is our Moody's upgrade???

 

[Knightshade]

My additional guess is that we may find Megacharger stations also include some Supercharging.

I was actually thinking this might also be a nice solution for cybertrucks with trailers... which currently couldn't supercharge at the vast majority of existing stations without first taking off/parking the trailer someplace then hooking back up which is a PITA.... stations build for semis wouldn't have that issue.

But I think early on anyway Xepa777 probably has it right with the short haul/megacharge when loading/unloading idea until production and batteries scale faster.... And the majority of US truck owners rarely or never tow anyway, so TAM of "pickup it's not quite as practical to tow on a long trip" is still many millions of units a year before it becomes any constraint- giving Tesla years still to address the charging side of that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Without having any reference for how much lithium is currently used in cells or whether this "concentrate" is much different than battery grade lithium, I did a quick search and came up with an approximation that this could be used for almost 6 million 75 kwh packs a year. I'm sure that that estimate is high, but it looks like we're talking about a large amount of lithium here.

Big Lithium. No Sugar.

Cheers!

 

[UncaNed]

True currently when all available tesla models are sedans but dominating the truck market starting next year will require expanded supercharger options in large parts of most non-coastal states. I've had a cybertruck on order since day 1 but if it were available today I wouldn't get one because it wouldn't be usable in the remote areas I hunt and do field research & it wouldn't be convenient for farmers and ranchers in most of the Rocky Mountain & Great Plains states. It will undoubtedly change eventually but right now the supercharger map doesn't even show plans for many future Superchargers in these areas as is common elsewhere.

I don't see any planned superchargers on Tesla.com any more; where did you find the map or list of future Superchargers?

 

[mongo]

Without having any reference for how much lithium is currently used in cells or whether this "concentrate" is much different than battery grade lithium, I did a quick search and came up with an approximation that this could be used for almost 6 million 75 kwh packs a year. I'm sure that that estimate is high, but it looks like we're talking about a large amount of lithium here.

I think your math [or assumptions] are off, unless it's super concentrated.
Concentrated spodumene is typically around 7% LiO2
LiO2 is 18% Li by mass
So Li is only 1.2% of spodumene by mass.
150,000 mTon * 1000 kg/ton * 1.2% = 1.87 million kg
With 5kg active Li ions per 75 kWh pack that is 374,000 packs.
Electrolyte and cathode also use Lithium, so it's probably less than that.

 

[SunCatcher]

I don't see any planned superchargers on Tesla.com any more; where did you find the map or list of future Superchargers?

supercharge.info

Zoomable Tesla supercharger map with adjustable range indicator.

supercharge.info