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I have been thinking that more of the Shanghai shipments to Europe (and elsewhere) since left late may not get delivered in Q2 and slip to July. How would that hurt FCF if at all?
Cars arriving late and not delivered until July could hurt FCF in Q2 but I think Tesla is ok here. They usually cut off shipments to Europe from Shanghai by day 50 to 57 of the quarter and the last ship that left Shanghai for EU in Q2 was on Day 55. Should be fine,
 
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A few minutes ago I was leaving the grocery store and it had started pouring down rain. Everyone was waiting outside under the shelter, hoping it would let up.

I just whipped out my phone, summoned my Tesla, hopped in, and drove off.

Everyone there saw what I did. Why would Tesla ever need to advertise?
Soon most cars will do this and nobody will be impressed.


Most cars will do it... right after Tesla gets 51% market share.
 
Tesla has no presence in Ukraine, all Teslas there are privately imported. But I gather there's a good amount.
As I mentioned in this post, my original 2014 Model S was sold, totaled, salvaged, and presumably exported. The guy I sold it to told me it appeared in his Tesla app for a little while when it was resurrected, showing it being driven around in Kyiv.
 
Hey the apple "car" is here

Apparently it's just software- for other peoples cars (14 car makers suggested as being "excited" about this new offering)



Granted- legacy OEM software usually sucks, so I guess it's a net positive?
 
Nobody posted this yet?

Not so convinced this will own the market. Assuming Apple will only support EVs, what is the TAM in the next five years... BESIDES Tesla? A couple of million vehicles? But it may push Tesla to counter with its own OEM version.

I take it back - looks like ICE-compatible:

1654553994396.png


So does that mean the OEM and not Apple is still doing battery management, trip / charger planning, maintenance schedule, etc.? If so, then the OEM still has lots of software to write. Or instead will Apple prescribe hardware interfaces to those components so that it can be the management layer? Lots of questions. And I'd hate to be Apple and be responsible for OTA for dozens of different OEMs! Just applying to both EVs and ICEs is a huge problem in my estimation. You either have to prescribe a lot of the hardware interfaces to restrict vehicle variation, or have lots of various compatibility software shims to deal with OEM variations (remember how the Mac clones worked out?). Ugh.
 
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Hey the apple "car" is here

Apparently it's just software- for other peoples cars (14 car makers suggested as being "excited" about this new offering)



Granted- legacy OEM software usually sucks, so I guess it's a net positive?
Not clear this is the limit of the "car" effort or not.

Of course 14 car makers are excited about this, being able to replace their garbage OS with an OS crafted by some of the best in the business is about the only way they can remotely compete with Tesla's user experience.

Also, keep in mind this is WWDC. Apple often only unveils the pieces of the thing which they need to in order to get developer buy in. Functionality which is enabled by new hardware won't be unveiled until that hardware is publicly available. If they have some kind of FSD competitor, they won't unveil it until it is for sale.
 
Nobody posted this yet?

Not so convinced this will own the market. Assuming Apple will only support EVs, what is the TAM in the next five years... BESIDES Tesla? A couple of million vehicles? But it may push Tesla to counter with its own OEM version.


Interesting and it makes sense for both legacy and Apple. Would be kinda funny if Apple ends up being the Android of auto software to Tesla’s Apple.
 
People who like Elon's memes could still follow @elonmusk and miss nothing, while others – e.g investors who invested in a company and not Elon's personal life – could continue to support Tesla's mission without second thoughts.
So, before investing in Tesla/TSLA I researched the heck out of Elon Musk, JB, Rawlinson, Sampson etc…

It seemed more important for the likelihood of the business succeeding that the people at the top had what I believed it would take. It was clear to me from that research that Elon was the key, JB and others, doors. Without the key to unlock the doors, the potential of those people wouldn’t be realized and the business doomed to fail.

While some find the memes and tweets of little to no importance in the day to day business still others, myself included, find them enlightening, revealing and entertaining. Whether a person finds them representative of negative, positive or neutral character is neither here nor there, they still represent revelation of character which goes directly to ability to make the business - your investment - succeed.

That character IS running the business, with the help of others of course, and still represents the key. It’s foolish thought to think without the key, the doors continue to remain open. I assure you, the doors still need that bloody key for a while yet.

Point being, if you’re staying invested based solely on the bottom line, you lucked out because you’d be ignoring the guy that made it happen and continues to make it happen by doing things like telling the employees to get off their butts and back into the office.
 
Nobody posted this yet?

Not so convinced this will own the market. Assuming Apple will only support EVs, what is the TAM in the next five years... BESIDES Tesla? A couple of million vehicles? But it may push Tesla to counter with its own OEM version.

Apple was successful because they could control the hardware and the software to make them work in harmony with the Iphone. I would argue for long time, the visual styling of the hardware, along with hardware features such as camera....were just as critical to the Iphone's success as the software was. Apple will not have that control anymore.
Interesting and it makes sense for both legacy and Apple. Would be kinda funny if Apple ends up being the Android of auto software to Tesla’s Apple.
The Android approach won't even work as well here since doing a OS for a variety of phone makers was pretty damn simple. One giant screen.

Making a system like Android work on cars will be a nightmare. Just look at how many models each auto makers has. Look at how many configurations of screens a single auto maker has across it's own lineup. Think of how many internal hardware configs there will be. It will be a nightmare.......and dear god do I feel for those software engineers at Apple who are on Car Play.

Btw, the announcement of this, the timeframe, the group of legacy auto signed on, etc.......all tells me the Apple Car is dead.
 
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Hey the apple "car" is here

Apparently it's just software- for other peoples cars (14 car makers suggested as being "excited" about this new offering)



Granted- legacy OEM software usually sucks, so I guess it's a net positive?
The analogy of Tesla being Apple and CarPlay being Android is kind of fitting here.

Legacy OEM's completely giving up any control of their software platform is par for course as far as they are concerned. They have never done any software ever, all existing auto head units in legacy autos are just slightly skinned off-the-shelf hardware purchased from the likes of Bosch anyways. But it's going to be awfully hard to differentiate anything they do from everyone else if everybody is now running identical CarPlay stacks as their base OS.
 
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This site is a crowd-sourced attempt to track progress of FSD Beta through # of disengagement and miles driven.


There's a bunch of noise since it's only about 100 testers entering data. Each time there is a new major build (like the most recent) it seems some of the metrics dip before improving further. So right now the miles / disengagement are dipping but I expect to start climbing after users get acclimated.

That being said this graph caught my eye, very positive trend.

Screen Shot 2022-06-06 at 3.56.04 PM.png


By my calculations, Tesla will reach 110% of drives with no disengagements by March 2023 ;)
 
This was always plan B for Apple…essentially a concession they will not build a vehicle. But man, what a lifeline to legacy automakers that are willing to kneel and kiss the ring.
Apple doesn't allow 3rd party branding of anything on their platforms. I'm amazed any automaker would allow this, their desperation is obvious. It will be hilarious if you get into your new 2024 BMW/Audi/Porsche/VW/Seat/Skoda/Fiat/Chrysler/Ram/Dodge/Ford/Lincoln/Buick/Chevrolet/Lamborghini/Bugatti/Rolls Royce/Ferrari and all you see is Apple logos. Every car will be the same now, this is legacy auto signing their own death warrants, designing their tombstones, and picking their own spots in the cemetery.
 
Apple car OS. Interesting. Most of the legacy OEMs are likely excited by this. Wonderful Apple GUI vs their typical antiquated horse$h!t...Seems like a no-brainer for them, and compared to what they currently offer or are likely developing. The problem is the continued 3rd party sharing of profits and lack of vertical integration is a trap. This will lull OEMs down the wrong road. They will never hire and replace Apple with a superior in-house offering. They will likely never build the necessarily scale /skills. Apple's success has typically been when they control the HW mfg, I almost wonder if Apple waits in the wing for these OEMs to go bankrupt and buys the HW mfg capability for pennies on the dollar to create the Apple car where they can control the HW. It wouldn't be an optimized EV factory, but who knows...
 
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Apple doesn't allow 3rd party branding of anything on their platforms. I'm amazed any automaker would allow this, their desperation is obvious. It will be hilarious if you get into your new 2024 BMW/Audi/Porsche/VW/Seat/Skoda/Fiat/Chrysler/Ram/Dodge/Ford/Lincoln/Buick/Chevrolet/Lamborghini/Bugatti/Rolls Royce/Ferrari and all you see is Apple logos. Every car will be the same now, this is legacy auto signing their own death warrants, designing their tombstones, and picking their own spots in the cemetery.
Exactly.

We all know Apple......they're going to drive a hard negotiation, especially when it comes to monetization of the software in the car. Legacy auto will get peanuts as Apple takes all the high margin software revenue.

Meanwhile, legacy auto then has to deal with Tesla, who is getting high margin software revenue from their own monetization of the in-car entertainment + FSD/Robotaxi high margin revenue.

Not a good dynamic for anyone competing with Tesla and using Apple Car Play.
 
Apple car OS. Interesting. Most of the legacy OEMs are likely excited by this. Wonderful Apple GUI vs their typical antiquated horse$h!t...Seems like a no-brainer for them, and compared to what they currently offer or are likely developing. The problem is the continued 3rd party sharing of profits and lack of vertical integration is a trap. This will lull OEMs down the wrong road. They will never hire and replace Apple with a superior in-house offering. They will likely never build the necessarily scale /skills necessary. Apple's success has typically been when they control the HW mfg, I almost wonder if Apple waits in the wingfor these OEMs to go bankrupt and buys the HW mfg capability for pennies on the dollar to create the Apple car where they can control the HW. It wouldn't be an optimized EV factory, but who knows...
Now here's an interesting idea. If Apple has lined up all of these legacy auto makers for Car Play, essentially shutting Google out from this market.....does Google make a desperate attempt to partner with Tesla.

Tesla would be in the strong position with a lot of leverage when it comes to revenue/profit split.

(Yes I know it's 99% likely Tesla goes it completely alone)