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Apple was successful because they could control the hardware and the software to make them work in harmony with the Iphone. I would argue for long time, the visual styling of the hardware, along with hardware features such as camera....were just as critical to the Iphone's success as the software was. Apple will not have that control anymore.

The Android approach won't even work as well here since doing a OS for a variety of phone makers was pretty damn simple. One giant screen.

Making a system like Android work on cars will be a nightmare. Just look at how many models each auto makers has. Look at how many configurations of screens a single auto maker has across it's own lineup. Think of how many internal hardware configs there will be. It will be a nightmare.......and dear god do I feel for those software engineers at Apple who are on Car Play.

Btw, the announcement of this, the timeframe, the group of legacy auto signed on, etc.......all tells me the Apple Car is dead.
Agreed and lets just say that I know a ton about this and also about another company that rhymes with frugal with my time working on maps.

The TL;DR is that @StarFoxisDown! is totally right, without the hardware being in control of Apple, there is very little that will improve with this implementation outside of maybe some more fluid UI. What you won't get is something that competes with Tesla's implementation. If I'm wrong, good for Apple and who ever implements this. I would rather chew glass than be the product manager that has to somehow bend time and space to make my software work on old, super constricted micros, memory modes that are unworkable and forced data structures that don't allow any fluid communication. Building this out will be like trying to build a skyscraper on top of quicksand, the more you build the faster it sinks or is more prone to falling over.
 
This site is a crowd-sourced attempt to track progress of FSD Beta through # of disengagement and miles driven.


There's a bunch of noise since it's only about 100 testers entering data. Each time there is a new major build (like the most recent) it seems some of the metrics dip before improving further. So right now the miles / disengagement are dipping but I expect to start climbing after users get acclimated.

That being said this graph caught my eye, very positive trend.

View attachment 813462

By my calculations, Tesla will reach 110% of drives with no disengagements by March 2023 ;)
FSD drivers disengage for different reasons. If I'm brave enough to try FSD Beta with my wife in the car, I will disengage at the slightest onset of atypical behavior vs when I am alone I let the car make more mistakes and click to report more shortcomings. I usually have plenty of cars around me and need/expect decent behavior. That said, while there are certainly plenty of irritating FSD maneuvers that may/may not be a disengagement for me, this latest FSD build has made noticeable and impressive improvements. I'm seeing a path over the next year for this to actually get somewhere. For me, this is bullish long term.
 
The Android approach won't even work as well here since doing a OS for a variety of phone makers was pretty damn simple. One giant screen.

Making a system like Android work on cars will be a nightmare. Just look at how many models each auto makers has. Look at how many configurations of screens a single auto maker has across it's own lineup. Think of how many internal hardware configs there will be. It will be a nightmare.......and dear god do I feel for those software engineers at Apple who are on Car Play.

With Apple holding the upper hand, they could force the car makers to adapt to their interface and not the other way around. Legacy can't even figure out how to use current-generation semiconductors, Apple can solve all those kinds of problems for them.

I could see Apple then buying out the legacy OEM(s) that they work with best and use them like Foxconn to assemble the hardware while they focus on design/software/electronics. I think they'll still be a distant second to Tesla, but I could see it happening.
 
Now here's an interesting idea. If Apple has lined up all of these legacy auto makers for Car Play, essentially shutting Google out from this market.....does Google make a desperate attempt to partner with Tesla.

Tesla would be in the strong position with a lot of leverage when it comes to revenue/profit split.

(Yes I know it's 99% likely Tesla goes it completely alone)
More like 99.99999999% and yes, I tried...
 
With Apple holding the upper hand, they could force the car makers to adapt to their interface and not the other way around. Legacy can't even figure out how to use current-generation semiconductors, Apple can solve all those kinds of problems for them.

I could see Apple then buying out the legacy OEM(s) that they work with best and use them like Foxconn to assemble the hardware while they focus on design/software/electronics. I think they'll still be a distant second to Tesla, but I could see it happening.
There is 0% chance Apple could dictate screen layout and hardware config in every single car across every car maker.

The logistics of this are just not set in reality.
 
Now here's an interesting idea. If Apple has lined up all of these legacy auto makers for Car Play, essentially shutting Google out from this market.....does Google make a desperate attempt to partner with Tesla.

Tesla would be in the strong position with a lot of leverage when it comes to revenue/profit split.

(Yes I know it's 99% likely Tesla goes it completely alone)

Not sure Google just goes away…the ultimate prize is autonomy-related entertainment/advertising revenue.

Would make sense for OEMs to offer an Apple or Google version of their vehicle(s) depending on which ecosystem a customer prefers.
 
Agreed and lets just say that I know a ton about this and also about another company that rhymes with frugal with my time working on maps.

The TL;DR is that @StarFoxisDown! is totally right, without the hardware being in control of Apple, there is very little that will improve with this implementation outside of maybe some more fluid UI. What you won't get is something that competes with Tesla's implementation. If I'm wrong, good for Apple and who ever implements this. I would rather chew glass than be the product manager that has to somehow bend time and space to make my software work on old, super constricted micros, memory modes that are unworkable and forced data structures that don't allow any fluid communication. Building this out will be like trying to build a skyscraper on top of quicksand, the more you build the faster it sinks or is more prone to falling over.
To go further with this thought process.

Android and IOS benefit from a standard annual upgrade in specs, along expected guidelines. It makes it easy for Apple to make software for the new Iphone that still works fine on a Iphone 3 years ago. Same with Android.....though because Google doesn't control the hardware, it's not handled nearly as well. And so you can already start to see the cracks forming.

But legacy auto doesn't work on timelines like that, especially when it comes to technology. Their annual updates are minor cosmetic fixes. Models will go 2-3 years, sometimes longer, before ever actually get a upgade like a phone gets every year. Apple will be dealing with a situation where they're on their 3rd or 4th update release to Car Play with new features and having NEW cars coming off manufacturing lines from legacy auto that are hardware Gen 1 or 2.

Such a mess.
 
To be clear, this is also an immediate and serious challenge to Tesla. Once every car runs some bastardized version of iOS, every car will have a native Maps app (Apple or Google), a native Netflix app, a native TikTok app, etc. The entire 2+ million apps ecosystem of iOS will now be on every car.

This is something Tesla needs to address right away, and honestly partnering with Google to at least bring native Google Maps into Tesla cars isn't a bad idea. Better yet would be to implement Google Play and allow native Android apps on Tesla. Google is going to want to do something because Apple is about to take over every car in the world in one single sweeping blitzkrieg, if I were Google I would be desperate and would be willing to let Tesla have anything just to keep something.
 
Not sure Google just goes away…the ultimate prize is autonomy-related entertainment/advertising revenue.

Would make sense for OEMs to offer an Apple or Google version of their vehicle(s) depending on which ecosystem a customer prefers.
You're just adding onto the already insanely complexity at this point. Take everything me and @Discoducky have said.....and multiple it by 2 🥴

Also knowing Apple, they probably made it a requirement that all those legacy auto makers that signed up are on Apple Car Play exclusively. I'd put money on it.
 
Agreed and lets just say that I know a ton about this and also about another company that rhymes with frugal with my time working on maps.

The TL;DR is that @StarFoxisDown! is totally right, without the hardware being in control of Apple, there is very little that will improve with this implementation outside of maybe some more fluid UI. What you won't get is something that competes with Tesla's implementation. If I'm wrong, good for Apple and who ever implements this. I would rather chew glass than be the product manager that has to somehow bend time and space to make my software work on old, super constricted micros, memory modes that are unworkable and forced data structures that don't allow any fluid communication. Building this out will be like trying to build a skyscraper on top of quicksand, the more you build the faster it sinks or is more prone to falling over.
I am almost certain this is running on Apple silicon, not on someone else's CPU.

I'm sure the OS and the displays will run great. The problem is talking to the rest of the car which is likely a bunch of disconnected junk from 18 vendors. The magic Tesla does like detecting when the tires are wearing unevenly just isn't going to be possible when the quality of data from outside "accessories" is going to be pure garbage.

I do agree though that Apple is best when they control the whole experience. This puts them weirdly in the position of being Windows or Android for cars which is seems fraught for them.
 
There is 0% chance Apple could dictate screen layout and hardware config in every single car across every car maker.

The logistics of this are just not set in reality.

Interested legacy auto companies could dip their toe in by designing (or redesigning) a single model that matches Apple's specs. If the concept works and the CarOS models are more popular than their counterparts, they could continue to shift over more of their models over time. Over a long timeline it might become standard for legacy to design a car to fit Apple's now universal specs.

Not saying they can catch Tesla doing this but I think it's about as likely as legacy auto avoiding obsolescence and bankruptcy without partnering with a tech company.
 
To be clear, this is also an immediate and serious challenge to Tesla. Once every car runs some bastardized version of iOS, every car will have a native Maps app (Apple or Google), a native Netflix app, a native TikTok app, etc. The entire 2+ million apps ecosystem of iOS will now be on every car.

This is something Tesla needs to address right away, and honestly partnering with Google to at least bring native Google Maps into Tesla cars isn't a bad idea. Better yet would be to implement Google Play and allow native Android apps on Tesla. Google is going to want to do something because Apple is about to take over every car in the world in one single sweeping blitzkrieg, if I were Google I would be desperate and would be willing to let Tesla have anything just to keep something.
Well it's not immediate per say. The new Car Play isn't coming out until 2024 at the earliest......and it's going to be a slow roll out. Will probably something like 2025 or most likely 2026 before they could actually scale it into meaningful numbers across the signed up legacy auto makers.

But yes, Tesla is in strong position here if they did want to entertain offers from Google. It's worth listening to.

Because Google just got shut out of most of the car maker today
 
I am almost certain this is running on Apple silicon, not on someone else's CPU.

I'm sure the OS and the displays will run great. The problem is talking to the rest of the car which is likely a bunch of disconnected junk from 18 vendors. The magic Tesla does like detecting when the tires are wearing unevenly just isn't going to be possible when the quality of data from outside "accessories" is going to be pure garbage.

I do agree though that Apple is best when they control the whole experience. This puts them weirdly in the position of being Windows or Android for cars which is seems fraught for them.
If every Car Play was running on Apple silicon, well then you've just drastically shrunk the number of Apple Car Play cars that will be out there until 2030, if not 2035. It's simply not feasible. Car Play cars become more a of niche than anything else. Essentially on just the high-end cars of legacy auto.
 
You're just adding onto the already insanely complexity at this point. Take everything me and @Discoducky have said.....and multiple it by 2 🥴

Also knowing Apple, they probably made it a requirement that all those legacy auto makers that signed up are on Apple Car Play exclusively. I'd put money on it.

I never said it wouldn’t be insanely complex, just seems unlikely from the OEM POV to agree to shut Google out and put all their eggs in Apple’s basket. Most likely they’ll just keep a model or two exclusively for Apple…can’t see so many automakers handing over their entire brand.
 
Did they announce that carplay 2.0 will no longer utilize the phone as the processor but it's now built into the car? Because car play 1.0 is essentially a hdmi out for an apple phone. So if the phone is still being used for processing then this screen take over seems like a merge to the cars mcu to control a few things but not actually controls the car like Tesla OS.

So unless everyone buys an iPhone, car play is not taking over..and if you forgot your phone at home then it's not taking over.
 
Starting to wonder this, but at what point does the ICE car go with the open hardware movement? Seems like an obvious strategic choice by incumbents to combat / follow-along Tesla's open sourced EV patents...

If everyone agrees EV's are the way to go as an industry now, I'd think open sourcing everything about the ICE car is an obvious choice as its just sunk cost.
 
another hard number to estimate is spend on Capital Expenditures.

We do know that both expansion projects for Giga Shanghai Phase 1 (Model 3 plant) have been diferred to Q3. Originally, the plan was to do half in May/June, and complete the expansion in July. Now all that has been moved forward to July, so there will be lower CapEx in Q2 at GF3. The project is on the order of magnitude of ~$100M USD.
 
If every Car Play was running on Apple silicon, well then you've just drastically shrunk the number of Apple Car Play cars that will be out there until 2030, if not 2035. It's simply not feasible. Car Play cars become more a of niche than anything else. Essentially on just the high-end cars of legacy auto.

From what I understand, CarPlay runs 100% on the iPhone and just uses the screens in the car as an output device. So no need for car to do OTA updates to improve the experience, and Apple will continue to update it with each iOS release.

The newer version announced today must have an API server that runs on the car to get engine and other stats as well as controlling the A/C and other things. I'd imagine that layer on the car is super simple and wouldn't need upgrading very often.
 
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The latest version of Apple CarPlay already supports EV charge planning and charge status, It can send info to multiple screens including HUDs, and it can show bidirectional alerts from the car. Apple is adding more features, but it’s not replacing the way it works.

There are some manufacturers that are switching their OS from BlackBerry QNX to Android or Google Automotive, so Google is also gaining some market share in the auto industry. This is not a problem for Apple because CarPlay can run on top of GA.

They showed a couple of slides that might be relevant to Tesla. Apple CarPlay is supported by 98% of new cars available in the US. (Is the other 2% only Tesla?). And 79% of US buyers will only consider cars with CarPlay.


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