Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

I’m closely monitoring if someone needs to be admitted for exhibiting TSLAQ tendencies

 

[StealthP3D]

20 or 25 years from now we should be well into the ICE bans so it could be a reality that actually plays out.

Legislation banning the sale of new ICE vehicles is not what will drive the adoption of EV's, now or later. People don't need a law to tell them that one product costs a lot less, is more convenient, and has more capability.

This transition is happening with or without laws and the best thing about these laws is they are being announced now which provides a clear reason for all the misguided souls who don't think EV's are superior or will ever be a no-brainer to start planning for the future. This includes the brain-dead management of some legacy auto. That is the only significant function of laws banning ICE cars - to get people planning for the future that is inevitable with or without the laws.

But I think that child of the future is more likely to say "Dad, why was that old man driving a car that smells so bad? I can still smell it in the air."

 

[Tim S]

They are shipping in the short range Model 3 for sure. Even references to it in the manual.

Tesla counters Model 3 SR+ delays with LFP packs in North America

Tesla is countering Model 3 Standard Range+ delays by offering some potential owners the option to switch to the LFP, or lithium iron phosphate, battery packs that are available in Asia and Europe. For months, Tesla has been battling high demand for its vehicles. Forced to push back delivery...

www.teslarati.com

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I rented a Model 3 from Hertz in Ft Lauderdale, FL a couple of weeks ago. When I plugged into a Supercharger, a message popped up that stated it was recommended to charge to 100% weekly.

 

[Discoducky]

What means deterministic?
Tesla called out in Q1 letter that nearly half of vehicles produced are LFP.
Either they have prismatic packs (like shown in video) or somewhere a plant is churning out 2170 LFP cells.
Those are the two choices.

I honestly don't care either way, but if prismatic is shipping then that does bode well for better, faster scale.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Just to be clear, I haven't missed it, I just don't believe Tesla is shipping prismatic cells. Sorry folks, my engineer brain needs more deterministic evidence.

I'm happy to review when available and happy to celebrate my utter-wrongness when the time comes.

It's time to put your researcher cap on that dome housing your engineering brain, I'd say.

 

[Ogre]

Legislation banning the sale of new ICE vehicles is not what will drive the adoption of EV's, now or later. People don't need a law to tell them that one product costs a lot less, is more convenient, and has more capability.

Full agree. But I’d go further.

Once the EV transition starts significantly impacting gas demand, the stability of gas prices is going to become truly unhinged. Much like Musk talks about car production being limited by the least available component, gas production will be constrained by the least available piece of the gas supply chain.

Refiners won’t be interested in commissioning new facilities or making expensive repairs in the face of declining demand. Oil tankers will no longer be commissioned for similar reasons. Pipelines won’t get built. New gas stations won’t get built and in places with expensive real estate, gas stations will be decommissioned.

Quicker than most people expect, it will be inconvenient and expensive to fuel up gas vehicles. As that happens it will demand for EVs will increase more which creates a positive feedback loop. This is already in motion and will only accellerate.

ICE sales have already started to decline. This will only accelerate as people start to realize resale values of ICE vehicles are collapsing. Investment in new ICE vehicles is already declining fast, it will vanish completely soon.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I thought so too, but have less definative evidence that is currently the case. Certainly, Elon has tweeted recently that, over time, about 2/3rds of Tesla will use Iron cathodes, and 1/3rd will use Nickel.

When that occurs is a business decision I think, with Giga Nevada easily able to continue providing 2170 (Nickel) SR+ packs, and with CATL having to ship their LFP packs from China. Of course, we know that CATL does intend to build a LFP bty plant in N. America, which I think seals the deal.

I just hope that Elon realizes the VALUE of a STD RGE Semi, with an Iron cathode battery. Bank that carbon!

Cheers to the longs!

I believe Gotion is also planning to build a US factory to supply Tesla with prismatic LFP cells/packs. Gotion has some industry leading energy density LFP batteries. Energy dense enough to make a compelling case for use in the Semi, imo.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

In Norway we can even differentiate between made in Berlin an made in Shanghai-all Performance Y are from Berlin and named ‚DE-P‘. Only free variable is how the Performance Ys from Berlin are distributed across countries.

Also it seems the Berlin VINs are sequential at the moment but we know from early times in Fremont that VIN counting is not reliable in the long run.

Well I wrote German made so that would imply it's possible to see where they come from

Today Norway are currently at 60 (it could still go up although it's 6pm here). Together with yesterday I would say that strongly suggests production in Germany is going up.

 

[JRP3]

I believe Gotion is also planning to build a US factory to supply Tesla with prismatic LFP cells/packs. Gotion has some industry leading energy density LFP batteries. Energy dense enough to make a compelling case for use in the Semi, imo.

Gotion
48660 Kato Rd Fremont, CA 94538

 

[Artful Dodger]

I rented a Model 3 from Hertz in Ft Lauderdale, FL a couple of weeks ago. When I plugged into a Supercharger, a message popped up that stated it was recommended to charge to 100% weekly.

This is an excellent point. Almost certainly, the entire Hertz fleet of rental Models 3 are LFP. It's their preferred chemistry due to life span and tolerance of repeated daily full charging. The cost difference on 100K units is not something Tesla would pass up.

 

[JustSaying]

That's a really big hinge pin! And it just slides into place... precisely!

How do they lubricate the pin joints?

 

[jbcarioca]

Polestar is spun off from Volvo after both were acquired by the Chinese automaker Geely.

Not quite correct. Geely bought Volvo from Ford in 2010. Polestar originally was a racing brand, bought by Volvo in 2015 with production in China, in 2017 Polestar was repositioned and remains Volvo-based but is a separate company, now with Volvo-based BEVs, themselves based on a Geely originated, Volvo managed platform. Now Geely has both part public to fund the complete BEV transition.

I never have physically driven a Polestar nor seen one. Right now they’re all based on that same CMA architecture and are mechanically identical.

 

[Knightshade]

Refiners won’t be interested in commissioning new facilities

That's already well past having happened.

There have been a (very very few) tiny niche refineries that work on stuff like condensate rather the light crude... but the newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity is Marathon's facility in Garyville, Louisiana. That facility came online in 1977. (though many have expanded existing capacity over the years.

Chevrons CEO said recently he doesn't expect a new US refinery to ever be built.

New gas stations won’t get built and in places with expensive real estate, gas stations will be decommissioned.

Again this has already been in progress for decades, long before EVs were any impact though obviously they'll accelerate it... total # of stations has declined significantly (initial reasons for the decline were the advent of self-serve where the station could be open wider hours needing less total stations, and the advent of larger stations with more pumps and attached larger stores again requiring fewer total stations).... and the real estate thing has happened as well-- many stations in NYC for example are now apartment buildings.

Gas Stations Could Soon Be As Quaint As Bookstores and Soda Fountains

Pity America’s gas station owners. They may not be with us for much longer.

slate.com

25% drop in total stations from 1994 to 2013, and continuing to decline annually.


All that said, the majority of cars on the road will remain ICE for at least another 20 years here based on # of existing vehicles and expected new EV sales.... and even that requires a very optimistic take on legacy developments or Chinese imports- so I don't expect gas will be especially hard to find in that time... though years into owning a Tesla stopping for gas at all is certainly inconvenient and expensive even today

 

[ninpb]

I rented a Model 3 from Hertz in Ft Lauderdale, FL a couple of weeks ago. When I plugged into a Supercharger, a message popped up that stated it was recommended to charge to 100% weekly.

How does the billing work for Hertz rental, supercharging?

 

[Artful Dodger]

How does the billing work for Hertz rental, supercharging?

Hertz will cover the cost of Supercharging until January 31, 2022

Hertz made global headlines yesterday when it announced a plan to convert its fleet to electric vehicles, starting with an initial purchase of 100,000 Tesla Model 3s. The car rental company said it expects to […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai to exit “closed-loop” system on June 11 | Teslarati.com

Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai to exit “closed-loop” system on June 11

Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai is exiting its closed-loop system, which was adopted as a way to resume operations despite the city’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns. With the termination of the closed loop, Giga Shanghai workers would now be allowed to travel between their homes and work freely. Tesla...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Posted on Twitter June 8, 2022:

Jaan of the EV Universe on Twitter: "Today is an important day for EVs in Europe. The CO2 fleet target revisions going forward to 2030 and new targets for 2035 are being voted on by the European Parliament TODAY. This *might* lead to a 100% fleet CO2 reduction over 2020/21 by 2035. Aka an ICE ban. https://t.co/Q4VXJR1Yr0" / Twitter

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

Hertz will cover the cost of Supercharging until January 31, 2022

Hertz made global headlines yesterday when it announced a plan to convert its fleet to electric vehicles, starting with an initial purchase of 100,000 Tesla Model 3s. The car rental company said it expects to […]

driveteslacanada.ca

My understanding is that this information isn’t currently accurate.

Other members here have reported that Hertz auto bills the SC fees to the same payment source as the CC on file for the rental.

Which makes me think Tesla wrote some code for Hertz to allow for this.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

My understanding is that this information isn’t currently accurate.

Other members here have reported that Hertz auto bills the SC fees to the same payment source as the CC on file for the rental.

Which makes me think Tesla wrote some code for Hertz to allow for this.

The article states Hertz will cover supercharger costs through Jan 31, 2022. So this offer has expired.

Tesla wouldn't necessarily have to write any new code. Hertz can simply see the charges and pass them through to the renter. Rental companies have been doing this with toll roads and passing supercharger fees to renters wouldn't be any different.

 

[StealthP3D]

The only reason Texas has such a deregulated and "open" energy market is to sell gas. Now that renewables are so quickly displacing gas, and storage looks to be replacing all peakers.....they don't want the market quite so "open" anymore.

Redirecting

People are so stupid. The PUC is hiding behind the competitive bidding process to demonstrate the contract was fairly awarded:

The PUC, in a statement from spokesman Rich Parsons, said E3 was selected through a competitive bidding process “open to any qualified respondents and in full compliance with the state’s procurement laws and procedures.”

“Through this competitive process, it was determined E3 presents the best value to Texans for this project,” he wrote.

But they are completely ignoring that the contract is for a study that will recommend how to re-write the energy rules. So, yeah, of course there are people who would be willing to underbid to gain the ability to tell them how to re-write the rules. Competitive bidding does nothing to ensure an unbiased study and claiming it does is just silly. Yet people are swayed by this kind of idiocy.