Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

The most interesting thing I saw in that is the parts content on the Monroney sticker:

• US/Canadian: 55%
• Mexico: 25%

While the Model Y I just took delivery of that was made in Fremont:

• US/Canadian: 60%
• Mexico: 20%

I didn't expect that they would have fewer US parts in the Austin built Model Ys...

Front casting and structural pack cut down on the total number of parts. Might be that content from Mexico stayed the same.

 

[Ogre]

another youtuber that doesn't know the difference between laminated glass and double pane glass.

Let me give you a clue if you don't know. Your car does NOT have double pane glass.

Laminated means two layers of glass attached with no gap.

Double Pane means two seperate pieces of glass with an air gap (air can be replaced with other gasses, or you can just use normal air).

Apologies for the nitpick.

Laminated just means there are multiple layers. Often there is something other than glass between the glass layers to act as an insulating layer. The insulation is the point of laminating it, if it were simply 2 pieces of bonded glass it wouldn't have the benefits it does. But as you suggest, it's not a layer charged with argon like double pane glass is. The window is a single solid, bonded piece when they are done.

 

[Skryll]

The most interesting thing I saw in that is the parts content on the Monroney sticker:

• US/Canadian: 55%
• Mexico: 25%

While the Model Y I just took delivery of that was made in Fremont:

• US/Canadian: 60%
• Mexico: 20%

I didn't expect that they would have fewer US parts in the Austin built Model Ys...

Source locally, checks out

 

[LYTRIDR]

Large scale solar isn't gonna get much cheaper. It's basically at the cost of it's component raw materials and minimal manufacturing cost already.

They're not magically gonna go from $70 a pop to $35 without some form of subsidies. Or maybe they will. Either way I believe it's irrelevant.

Getting lower than today's $.74/Watt is completely unnecessary and isn't remotely what's holding us back.

Is $0.74/Watt the all-in construction costs for large scale projects you see? I was able to self install a 20kW ground mount array a couple years ago and it was $1.35 and was pretty happy at that price…

 

[MC3OZ]

No it's not, unless you are referring just to the panel hardware, but the solar panels themselves are less than half of the total cost per MWh and have been for many years. Installation alone is 10% of the cost.

See the yellow "Module" bar in this chart from NREL for 2019 (source pg 45 fig 30):

View attachment 814331



Economics is not magic and there are many concrete reasons to expect solar is gonna get much cheaper. Here are some:

• Deleting most of the transmission grid in favor of on-site solar and microgrids
• Continued optimization of installation, overhead, and other soft costs
• Continued improvements in panel efficiency, longevity, and mass
• Cleanup and standardization of regulatory barriers driving up soft costs, streamlining permitting and inspections
• Including rooftop solar from the start for greenfield construction projects
• Tesla Solar Roof
• Reduced marketing and transactions costs
• Agrovoltaics
• Relaxation of COVID logistics and raw material cost spikes
• Economies of scale
• Miscellaneous experience curve effects / Wright's Law
• Cheap solar power driving down energy prices and thus reducing the energy cost of making more solar power
• Growing usage of air conditioning in summertime driving up demand for midday electricity

???
There is a direct relationship between energy consumption and GDP and standard of living. Cheaper is better. Cheaper means more profits for solar industry and faster scaling. Cheaper means carbon capture. Cheaper means stronger macroeconomy for Tesla to operate in.

The cost of solar is profoundly important, not irrelevant.

There are also pipeline benefits of solar R&D and innovation.

• Replacing silver with copper,
• Harvesting more of the spectrum - especially if we can tap UV for cloudy days.
• Capturing/using heat - PVT.

Even if the cost of the solar panel itself doesn't drop, if that panel captures more energy, or lasts longer, that lowers the LCOE.

I don't think we are close to the point where the law of physics determine what can be done with solar, the laws of physics say there is a complete light spectrum to play with.

Then consider lowering the cost of embodied energy, better mining and processing of raw materials, streamlined installation etc.

It is more likely to be a marathon that a sprint, but we may only be halfway through the race.

 

[jerry33]

Apologies for the nitpick.

Laminated just means there are multiple layers. Often there is something other than glass between the glass layers to act as an insulating layer. The insulation is the point of laminating it, if it were simply 2 pieces of bonded glass it wouldn't have the benefits it does. But as you suggest, it's not a layer charged with argon like double pane glass is. The window is a single solid, bonded piece when they are done.

I thought it was mainly for safety so that you don't have jagged glass shards when broken. (Not that there aren't insulating or heat reflecting qualities, which I believe are secondary to safety).

 

[Carl Raymond]

Deleting most of the transmission grid in favor of on-site solar and microgrids

I’m confused by this. In the past I have read that many sources of wind will act as backup for each other. The wind never stops in all locations at same time.
There’s also the idea that western solar supplies energy to the eastern evening peak.
Both concepts require a grid. Is a grid a grid, or does moving energy from region X to region Y as required somehow differ from existing distribution grid?

My conviction is that humans are smart. AI, HVDC, batteries, P2G, demand responsive car charging etc will all play a part and we will achieve cheap 100% renewables and wonder why we burned *sugar* for so many decades. It’s one of those problems the market solves best, but we still have to be able to describe it to luddites in order to invoke change.
Cheers

 

[ggr]

Mod: Seriously, people, 17 WD40 posts, 4 complaints, and I'm jetlagged from getting off a plane from Sydney. You are on a slippery slope here. Please exercise restraint, or if you must show off how much you know, do it in the off-topic thread, keep the grease out of here.--ggr

 

[SmokyPeat]

The most interesting thing I saw in that is the parts content on the Monroney sticker:

• US/Canadian: 55%
• Mexico: 25%

While the Model Y I just took delivery of that was made in Fremont:

• US/Canadian: 60%
• Mexico: 20%

I didn't expect that they would have fewer US parts in the Austin built Model Ys...

Kinda hard to draw that conclusion when the US and Canadian parts are lumped together. Maybe the Fremont cars are chock full of (inferior?)Canuck components. /s

 

[Discoducky]

Who knows how f'ing huge a milestone this for an actual customer to have 4680s?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Who knows how f'ing huge a milestone this for an actual customer to have 4680s?

It's f'ing YUUGE!! A new era for Tesla.

 

[Gigapress]

I’m confused by this. In the past I have read that many sources of wind will act as backup for each other. The wind never stops in all locations at same time.
There’s also the idea that western solar supplies energy to the eastern evening peak.
Both concepts require a grid. Is a grid a grid, or does moving energy from region X to region Y as required somehow differ from existing distribution grid?

I think long term, wind will not be competitive vs 100% solar and batteries in almost all locations. Wind is bumping up closer to physical limits of aerodynamics and materials while solar has plenty of room for further optimization.

Simply building more solar and batteries closer to the load is much more economical than running a continental-scale grid to offset. Even today’s transmission & distribution costs are on average $30/MWh, with smaller grids than some of the HVDC or time zone offset ideas. At a certain point, cities, towns, businesses and households are going to be questioning why they’re paying for all that when it’s more expensive plus uglier, less reliable, and prone to starting wildfires. There is no fundamental physical reason why we need a big grid for a solar and batteries system. Many people already have off-grid properties which are 100% powered with on-site solar + storage. Micro-grids are probably the answer in most cities and towns. Tony Seba has been saying this for years.

My conviction is that humans are smart. AI, HVDC, batteries, P2G, demand responsive car charging etc will all play a part and we will achieve cheap 100% renewables and wonder why we burned *sugar* for so many decades. It’s one of those problems the market solves best, but we still have to be able to describe it to luddites in order to invoke change.
Cheers

I agree, we will combine a lot of tricks to save cost and improve utility everywhere. We needed fossil fuels to get started but now it’s time to graduate to harnessing the Sun

 

[Captkerosene]

No free EV charging on government property without also dispensing free gasoline. It's only fair, LOL!

That's hilarious and it just shows how furious these anti-EV people get when they see how cheaply we can refuel, even if it's only slow charging at a 30 amp level 2 charge station. I propose the solution is to install gas pumps that take 12 hours to fill the tank. And make sure that handle locking devices are illegal for safety reasons so the motorist has to stand there and squeeze the pump handle the entire time they are getting "free gas".

I would be surprised if this bill passes into law. But, if it does, North Carolina gets on my "stupid States" list.

No free EV charging on government property without also dispensing free gasoline. It's only fair, LOL!

I'm not familiar with the proposal but it doesn't look hilarious to me. I doubt that they want to be giving out free gas - they just don't want to be paying for free charging. That's not a crazy idea given that we're 30T in debt, have 150T in unfunded liabilities with huge deficits and high inflation. EVs are way past the tipping point in adoption. Why offer more freebies when we are already supply limited?

 

[MC3OZ]

Micro-grids are probably the answer in most cities and towns. Tony Seba has been saying this for years.

Definitely for smaller towns at the end of 50-100 mile transmission run to service 50-100 people.

Just trimming these locations first can free up some valuable copper wire and save money.

Bigger cities will probably be net importers of electricity, but with batteries, we have 24 hours to move the required electricity.
If we do that via HVDC, then the city maintains its own grid frequency and voltage, the rest of the state doesn't care what that is.

Being able to run underground is a big advantage for HVDC.

If the Boring co can make it economical to underground long distance HVDC, that combined with putting HVDC in the sea means fewer transmission towers are needed.

We can't say for sure all of these things will happen, or when they will happen, but we have a larger pallet of potential solutions.

 

[Stretch2727]

The most interesting thing I saw in that is the parts content on the Monroney sticker:

• US/Canadian: 55%
• Mexico: 25%

While the Model Y I just took delivery of that was made in Fremont:

• US/Canadian: 60%
• Mexico: 20%

I didn't expect that they would have fewer US parts in the Austin built Model Ys...

This calculation is done on component costs only and does not consider "final assembly cost". If the battery cost went down substantially with the 4680 the US/Canada percentage would decline and the Mexico portion would increase even if the same $$ amount from Mexico was used in the car.

Obviously the 4680 are now an internal cost. From my experience in automotive a standard cost will be assign to measure the "profitability" of the components. Likely this "standard cost" is cost at volume, likely the target they want to hit after some maturity.

 

[ZeApelido]

You are on a slippery slope here.

!!!

 

[dhanson865]

I thought it was mainly for safety so that you don't have jagged glass shards when broken. (Not that there aren't insulating or heat reflecting qualities, which I believe are secondary to safety).

Laminating can do many things and each has a benefit in cars

* you can use two different types of glass for what becomes one piece, each could have a different strength, texture, opacity, and so on. Totally can use the same glass twice but you have the option to mix it up.
* the separator can filter UV
* the separator can keep the glass in place if fractured for safety
* the separator can insulate sound and heat transmission
* the fact that the glass is harder to puncture or fracture enough to make an opening increases security from thieves and safety during collisions.


I think Tesla did it more for Sound than safety but both are clearly obvious benefits that would have weighed in the decision.

 

[hitchhiker]

No free EV charging on government property without also dispensing free gasoline.

I mean... the comparison to gasoline is just hyperbole to create divisiveness. But the general concept has always been true at government locations.

I work at a government contractor on government land (an FFRDC). Its in our contracts that individuals are not allowed to benefit from their position other than their salary. That meant that when we put in EV charging it was not allowed to be free, because that would have been personal benefit off of the government dollars. So they sold 'tickets' for the charging spots, and are soon putting in chargers that charge by the KW. The cost of putting in the chargers, maintenance and the electricity are completely covered by the fees charged to the users. That's just the way government entities are required to work.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There are also pipeline benefits of solar R&D and innovation.

• Replacing silver with copper,
• Harvesting more of the spectrum - especially if we can tap UV for cloudy days.
• Capturing/using heat - PVT.

Even if the cost of the solar panel itself doesn't drop, if that panel captures more energy, or lasts longer, that lowers the LCOE.

I don't think we are close to the point where the law of physics determine what can be done with solar, the laws of physics say there is a complete light spectrum to play with.

Then consider lowering the cost of embodied energy, better mining and processing of raw materials, streamlined installation etc.

It is more likely to be a marathon that a sprint, but we may only be halfway through the race.

Yes. That's all awesome and should be prioritized. My point was that we don't need to lower the cost of solar from a competitive standpoint.

The reasons we aren't installing more are primarily political, not economic.

 

[GOVA]

Remember when AOL was huge and many people saw the news on their AOL landing page when they logged in. AIM was used for communication between people. Who bought AOL? How is it doing now?

Remember Yahoo and Yahoo Games and Yahoo Messenger? Who bought Yahoo? How is it doing now?

Twitter is the flavor of the decade. If Elon buys it, the powers that spread propaganda will move on to the next rising platform, putting money and advertising into it and helping it to grow while twitter withers. That's the way these platforms go. I think Elon is wasting his money, but it is his money to waste.

I think you have a point. They already have been targeting something called Tik Tok. Just pour their propaganda into young unassuming minds.
Do we know for sure that Elon buys or will he walk away?