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But I also got my Starlink notification today. For the first time in my entire life I can now choose a viable alternative to Comcast and Verizon.

Single tear.

Should I bother with this in Philadelphia? Lots of buildings. Don't really feel like running more wires. Thoughts?

I wouldn't. Unless you somehow all three of:

Live in a major northeastern city and also have no gigabit internet available (which is gonna be much faster, and likely cheaper) and also have a shockingly clear view of the sky at relatively low angles constantly.


Starlink is a godsend for those of us in rural areas who genuinely have no other worthwhile options-(and for lots of other use cases like RVs, boats and aircraft, underdeveloped nations, remote cell tower backhaul, etc...) but even Elon has said, repeatedly, it makes little sense in developed, denser urban and suburban areas that already have better (often multiple better) options)
 
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Twitter is the flavor of the decade. If Elon buys it, the powers that spread propaganda will move on to the next rising platform, putting money and advertising into it and helping it to grow while twitter withers. That's the way these platforms go. I think Elon is wasting his money, but it is his money to waste.

Twitter is not comparable to AOL or Yahoo (different circumstances, different reasons for failure, certainly different leadership or lack thereof).

The key argument I disagree with, in my opinion, is that Twitter under Elon (whether he buys it or controls it) would wither. Here's where history is relevant: Elon is not known for backing out of tough challenges. And so far has a pretty good success rate.

It certainly is IMHO the toughest challenge yet, as he's taken on these" powers that spread (their) propaganda" and they are not going to let it happen without a fight. Same as they tried and nearly succeeded in smothering Tesla in 2018 when it was so dependent on Wall St for its continued growth.

What is the main reason Tesla is so misunderstood by the majority of people? What can Elon do about it? Starting a new PR department won't do it, the news channels will distort /lie /misrepresent anything that PR dishes out. Seems like having a truly independent /trustworthy news source (not only about Tesla) would be a good way to go.

Recall Elon's mind and motivation, he doesn't take on new initiatives carelessly. This has been on his mind for a while (Pravduh for those who remember)

Time will tell. I for one applaud his pluck, courage and determination to do what is best (or has the best chance of) for the good of us humans of all affiliations, races, countries.
 
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Dumb question, will this 9000 ton casting do both the front and back together as a single piece?
Highly unlikely. A single 6000 ton press is required to do either a single Model Y front or back casting. The front and rear cast sections of the Cybertruck (which this press is intended for) are likely to be much bigger than those on a Model Y. Therefore proportionally you would expect that it would only be sufficient do do either a front or rear Cybertruck casting, not both at once.

If we're talking a new smaller model car then it may be possible for a 9000 ton press (or bigger) to do much larger castings, including a front and rear in the same die.
 
Highly unlikely. A single 6000 ton press is required to do either a single Model Y front or back casting. The front and rear cast sections of the Cybertruck (which this press is intended for) are likely to be much bigger than those on a Model Y. Therefore proportionally you would expect that it would only be sufficient do do either a front or rear Cybertruck casting, not both at once.

If we're talking a new smaller model car then it may be possible for a 9000 ton press (or bigger) to do much larger castings, including a front and rear in the same die.
Elon has talked about doing a single casting multiple times in the past. Wondering if that’s still the plan or if they ran into complications (I thought I read that it was something they were rumored to be attempting in the Texas factory)
 
Elon has talked about doing a single casting multiple times in the past. Wondering if that’s still the plan or if they ran into complications (I thought I read that it was something they were rumored to be attempting in the Texas factory)
They did a patent for single casting several years ago but nothing much further has come of it since.

The casting industry (IDRA/LK etc) is a long way from building the kind of equipment that Tesla showed in that patent. And if you think about it there's not as much logical reason for producing the current generation of cars in a single piece casting at this stage. The chunkiest sections are what they are currently doing for front and rear on Model Y, so they make total sense.

However the sections of the car forming the side and roof rails etc are currently made from various grades of steel as necessary to perform the side impact protection safety requirements. It would be a lot harder for the strength to slenderness ratio to be achieved on these sections with a casting. There's also less material overall in these sections, which makes a single casting die less effective for the distance the molten material needs to cover. It may be possible to design a future smaller model car around a single casting but I just don't see it as being likely for the current generation of designs.
 
@Troy As Billy Joel says, "you may be wrong but you may be right". We will see. But my issue with your wording is how absolute it is. A simple addition of "I think..." or "Based on my analysis..." would go a long way. Better yet, use error bars and confidence intervals as statisticians and forecasters should.

On the other hand, lots of analysts follow Troy's numbers and will have 250k in mind.

If Tesla beats that number, it could be the spark that sets off a rally going into the summer news (split, AI day #2, Q3).

Of course we know 250k might be beaten if Tesla China/Fremont pulls a rabbit out of a hat (they've done so before). Let's keep WallStreet misinformed for now, shall we?
 
I did some back of the napkin numbers and think 250k can be beaten, but not by much. But my assumption was with Austin and Berlin producing 5k cars in June.

If Tesla can beat that a bit, they may be able to get closer to 260k cars. That puts us about 90k cars behind for the year.

For 1.5M cars, that’s a 6% shortfall compared to what we’d see if there hadn’t been a Shanghai shutdown.
 
Minhang district in Shanghai in lockdown again.


Minhang district is outlined in red here on google maps (GF3 is all the way by the coast in the southeastern tip):
Minhang District · Shanghai, China
 
My read on the Elon comments regarding "nutty" delivery wave coming end of Q2 is that they want to maximize cars delivered versus produced (in other words minimize the amount of cars in transit at the end of the quarter) so the Q2 financials (gross margin, anyone?) don't take too large of a hit.

Every car produced that can be delivered will be delivered IMO.
 
New press (or casting??) machine on its way to Giga Berlin:

Does anyone know if we can learn from the weight of 75 metric tons what it actually is? Giga press for Y is said to be 410 tons here, but as it is likely not shipped in one piece... Otherwise we might learn what it is from next weekends drone videos.
 
"Note that when recirculation is on in Teslas, the ambient CO2 concentration in the air spikes to extremely high levels. I used to get headaches on road trips but w/o recirc I do not," the commenter wrote.

"We will look into this and adjust," Musk said yesterday. "In general, I’d recommend against using recirc, as the range advantage is small."


Hmm... I think I'll prep for a wee bit of a dip.
 
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"Note that when recirculation is on in Teslas, the ambient CO2 concentration in the air spikes to extremely high levels. I used to get headaches on road trips but w/o recirc I do not," the commenter wrote.

"We will look into this and adjust," Musk said yesterday. "In general, I’d recommend against using recirc, as the range advantage is small."

/snip./

Hmm... I think I'll prep for a wee bit of a dip.

Bahaha! This is the worst possible kind of unscientific nonsense. What was the increase in absolute terms? What is the NORMAL level in an occupied car? What are harmful levels? 15%? :p

This is story is more systematic FUD, attacking each of Tesla's technical strengths (in this case B/W D/M), and OMITTING critical information in order to create a sense of unease in the uninformed. Trying to pretend Tesla isn't the best.

And it works on the uninformed, which is why the Press is paid to spread FUD. Don't buy it. You'll be money ahead.
 
Bahaha! This is the worst possible kind of unscientific nonsense. What was the increase in absolute terms? What is the NORMAL level in an occupied car? What are harmful levels? 15%? :p

This is story is more systematic FUD, attacking each of Tesla's technical strengths (in this case B/W D/M), and OMITTING critical information in order to create a sense of unease in the uninformed. Trying to pretend Tesla isn't the best.

And it works on the uninformed, which is why the Press is paid to spread FUD. Don't buy it. You'll be money ahead.
Regardless of whether it's true or not, for me playing the fud is a money-making part of swing trading. IMO, there are more uninformed / laypeople investors who are easily spooked than there are of us.
 
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Regardless of whether it's true or not, for me playing the fud is a money-making part of swing trading. IMO, there are more uninformed / laypeople investors who are easily spooked than there are of us.

Yes, this common attitude is exactly why Elon wanted to take Tesla private, in order to better insure its future success by removing the largest attack vector on the growing company: the Market participants working to make the company fail.

BTW, this is also the same reason why Elon announced earlier this week that Starlink would not IPO before 2025 (or later). With the role of Starlink in Eastern Europe right now, that's prudent for the company, and a generational loss for investors.

As far as swing trading goes, Kathie Wood is the most promenient example. Her ARC funds have dodged a lot of growth by trading out at the wrong times, and failing to buy in again on time. It's as a simple a matter as comparing 5-yr charts for those funds vs TSLA, which has outperformed them all.

"Buy'nHold for the win". Paging @Hock1
 
Yes, the share price is quite clearly going to a ATH quite soon on the momentum from insane earnings and growth. And that's just splendid.

But I also got my Starlink notification today. For the first time in my entire life I can now choose a viable alternative to Comcast and Verizon.

Single tear.

Should I bother with this in Philadelphia? Lots of buildings. Don't really feel like running more wires. Thoughts?
Got it, tried it, liked it, returned it. Gigabit fiber was on its way to us (got it now, about to give Comcast the bad news) for half the price. Soon, 5G internet will be an option, too. I think Starlink is a tough sell in urban environments. In rural or mobile applications, it should be great.

Also, you need a pretty good swath of northern sky to be clear. Even in a suburban neighborhood, that wasn’t easy for us to find (trees). Use the app to check this.
 
"Note that when recirculation is on in Teslas, the ambient CO2 concentration in the air spikes to extremely high levels. I used to get headaches on road trips but w/o recirc I do not," the commenter wrote.

"We will look into this and adjust," Musk said yesterday. "In general, I’d recommend against using recirc, as the range advantage is small."


Hmm... I think I'll prep for a wee bit of a dip.
"Feature works exactly as designed" would be a better headline.